The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric Prime]

Fandango App

Monday

Tues

Wed

Thursday

Black Panther

35,429

36,302

39,934

65,453

Love, Simon

863

1,256

2,907

Avengers: Infinity War

49,836

54,892

68,826

76,734

Deadpool 2

23,134

28,896

41,212

SW: Solo

13,688

15,855

28,533

Jurassic World 2

9,310

12,761

23,266

The Darkest Minds

130

244

579

1,777

House With Clocks

897

1,469

3,607

8,074

Smallfoot

734

1,261

2,448

Venom

13,602

13,818

20,867

31,569

Goosebumps 2

300

631

1,733

3,615

Aquaman

8,502

9,671

15,063

Dogs Way Home

259

623

1,516

3,257

Glass	3,106	3,978	6,478	17,810
Kid Who Would Be King	107	318	980	1,892

Captain Marvel

33,951

37,060

49,745

64,456

Five Feet Apart	613	1,053	2,225	4,118
Wonder Park	607	988	1,749	3,640

Us

10,742

13,597

27,634

39,514

After

681

1,098

1,904

3,436

Missing Link

167

299

634

1,483

Avengers: Endgame

53,999

59,102

75,594

80,411

John Wick 3	7,867
A Dog's Journey	340
The Sun is Also a Star	124

 

John Wick

Monday before release

23% of Captain Marvel (34.8M)

16% of Infinity War (40.7M)

34% of Deadpool 2 (42.7M)

22% of Black Panther (44.8M)

58% of Venom (46.4M)

57% of Solo (48.5M)

15% of Endgame (52M)

73% of Us (52.1M)

92% of Aquaman (62.8M)

253% of Glass (102.1M)

84% of Jurassic World 2 (125.1M)

 

Presales are pretty strong, but comps vary from film to film. But a common one is basically somewhere in the 40s range, which is about right. Not anything amazing, but certainly healthy and a strong jump from the last chapter. Looking at other comps...

 

Last 7 Days (10-4)

79% of Us (56.4M)

261% of Alita (74.5M using 3-Day, 97.3M using first 4 days)

142% of Shazam (76.2M)

208% of Glass (83.9M)

 

Days 18-4 (minus 14-12)

83% of Us (59.1M)

140% of Shazam (74.9M)

 

Days 39-4 (minus 21-19, 14-12)

96% of Us (68.4M)

 

Well, it looks better. Now instead of the 40s range, it's 50s/70s range. I feel like it's better to be pessimistic and go with the former. It might have been easy for Wick 2 to double from the previous movie, but 3 doubling from 2 seems like more of a stretch.

 

Doggo

56% of Wonder Park (8.9M)

38% of House w/ Clock (10.1M)

46% of Smallfoot (10.7M)

203% of Missing Link (12.1M)

131% of A Dog's Way Home (14.8M)

113% of Goosebumps 2 (17.9M)

318% of The Kid Who Would Be King (22.8M)

 

This is...pretty solid actually. Bodes well for a double digits opening.

 

Sun is a Star

18% of After (1.1M)

14% of Love, Simon (1.7M)

20% of Five Feet Apart (2.7M)

95% of The Darkest Minds (5.6M)

 

So admittedly, I can't think of a lot of good comps for this at the moment, but I feel this should be doing a lot better. It probably won't open this low, but it really needs to pick up steam the next two days.

 

I'll look at the other movies I'm tracking later. I need some rest.

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Sun is a Star

18% of After (1.1M)

14% of Love, Simon (1.7M)

20% of Five Feet Apart (2.7M)

 95% of The Darkest Minds (5.6M)

 

So admittedly, I can't think of a lot of good comps for this at the moment, but I feel this should be doing a lot better. It probably won't open this low, but it really needs to pick up steam the next two days.

 

 

It's worth noting that WB is opening this in only 2,100 theaters, which, barring They Shall Not Grow Old, makes it their smallest wide opening since...Cloud Atlas.

[Nova]

I’m thinking $50-60M range for JW3. Its selling really well at my theater but the problem is that the late night showings aren’t budging....yet. I checked to see if it was just for Thursday night but the Friday and Saturday night late shows are a ghost town at my theater. I’m honestly really shocked  But with rave reviews and I’m gonna assume great WOM, the potential for walk ups/a break out is there. I know I had it at $60M+ before but I’m just not betting on $60M+ just yet because every single time I claim walk ups are going to happen for a movie, they never show up so maybe if this time I don’t bet on them, the walk ups prove me wrong and actually show up this time 

[Biggestgeekever]

I know John Wick 3 has had some promotions going, but I still can't see it being nearly as preview sales heavy as comic book films. We'll see how the next couple days go, but I'm still firmly in the camp of a $55M-$60M opening.

 

The Sun is a Star could end up being a miss too; I thought it'd follow pretty similarly to Everything, Everything back in 2017, but it could be exactly like Poms imploding compared to Book Club

[Firepower]

21 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

I know John Wick 3 has had some promotions going, but I still can't see it being nearly as preview sales heavy as comic book films.

This. You can't compare R-rated action movie with MCU movie, this is totaly wrong.

[AnDr3s]

any chances john wick 3 over mission impossible fallout OW ❓

 

Edited May 14, 2019 by AnDr3s

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, AnDr3s said:

any chances john wick 3 over mission impossible fallout OW ❓

 

 

36 minutes ago, Porthos said:

9 hours ago, Porthos said:

Tempted to "ALL IN" at 60.723m (Wick 3 > 2x Wick 2 OW). 

 

Not there yet.  But really tempted.

Fuck it.

 

@Mulder: ALL IN

 

====

 

This isn't based on pre-sale info, really (though seeing it capture PLF screens locally isn't hurting).

 

But I like to live dangerously everyonce in a while.  And if I can't live dangerously on a rising IP that has a (at the moment) 98 Rotten Tomatoes score with an 8.x/10 avg rating, when can I?

 

So, choo choo motherbleepers.  School's in session and it's time to pass out the pencils to all the students.

I just "ALL IN"ed at 60.723m, so.... 

 

===

 

Okay, that's a club and not a prediction.  The 'safe' optimistic prediction is anything over 50m.  But do I think there's a chance at over 61.2m?  Well, if I think there's a chance at 60.723m...

 

It'll be tough no doubt.  I wouldn't rush to Reno to bet on the possibility.  But then again, stranger things have happened at the box office.

Edited May 14, 2019 by Porthos

[Deep Wang]

3 hours ago, Nova said:

I’m thinking $50-60M range for JW3. Its selling really well at my theater but the problem is that the late night showings aren’t budging....yet. I checked to see if it was just for Thursday night but the Friday and Saturday night late shows are a ghost town at my theater. I’m honestly really shocked  But with rave reviews and I’m gonna assume great WOM, the potential for walk ups/a break out is there. I know I had it at $60M+ before but I’m just not betting on $60M+ just yet because every single time I claim walk ups are going to happen for a movie, they never show up so maybe if this time I don’t bet on them, the walk ups prove me wrong and actually show up this time 

 

Yeah, I’m not sure why you’re worried about the late shows. They might not be selling now, but it’s not like they are going to be empty on opening weekend. 

[Krissykins]

$40m range is what I’m expecting for John Wick 3.

 

will be one of the rare franchises to increase OW and total for each instalment. 

[TalismanRing]

Some possible comps for preview multis.  This will be in maybe 30% more locations for previews than Wick 2 and should be more front loaded for being another sequel.  W/e off preview multi should be Logan 9.3  (or Venom at a stretch) at the low end and Kingsman 2's 11.2 at the high end.

 

Movie	Previews	Opening Day ($M)	Opening W/E ($M)	OD Multiplier	OW Multiplier	# locations
John Wick 2	2.2	11	30.4	5	13.8	2400
Venom	10	32.5	80.3	3.3	8	3543
Equalizer 2	3.1	13.4	36	4.3	11.6	2934	From 4pm
Deadpool 2	18.6	53	125.5	2.9	6.7
Sicario 2	2	7.5	19	3.7	9.5	2669
Mission Impossible 6	6	22.8	61.2	3.8	10.2	3300
Kingsman 2	3.4	15.3	39	4.5	11.5	3100
Wolverine 3 - Logan	9.5	33	88.4	3.5	9.3
Jack Reacher 2	1.33	8.8	22.9	6.7	17.3
Commuter	0.7	4.5	15.8	6.4	22.6	2000+

[Nova]

2 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Yeah, I’m not sure why you’re worried about the late shows. They might not be selling now, but it’s not like they are going to be empty on opening weekend. 

I’m not necessarily worried. More so surprised at the pattern, if that makes sense. I don’t expect them to be ghost towns when it opens 

[filmlover]

5 hours ago, Biggestgeekever said:

I know John Wick 3 has had some promotions going, but I still can't see it being nearly as preview sales heavy as comic book films. We'll see how the next couple days go, but I'm still firmly in the camp of a $55M-$60M opening.

 

The Sun is a Star could end up being a miss too; I thought it'd follow pretty similarly to Everything, Everything back in 2017, but it could be exactly like Poms imploding compared to Book Club

Honestly the premise of The Sun is Also a Star (so these two young strangers have a chance encounter and fall in love as she's and her family are about to be deported? And there's something to do with the solar system? The trailer literally starts with a history lesson lmao) just seems like a very hard sell. I'm not surprised even the desired teen audience doesn't care.

[cdsacken]

This is starting to feel a bit like US fever before it opened. I say that predicting 55+.

 

[YM!]

Aladdin

5/24/19 (9 before previews, 10 before release)

North Shore Cinema

Mequon, WI

 

6:00 - 20/301

9:30 - 4/301

 

Comparisons:

4% ahead of Despicable M3 ($75.3M OW)

8% behind Detective Pikachu ($50.3M OW)

70% behind Incredibles 2 ($54.9M OW)

 

I do think Aladdin will be more walkup based than DP as it skews more towards the female crowd but I don’t like these comparisons but then again it could be due to MDay. My guess is anywhere from $55M-$70M OW/$70M-$90M 4 Day. Either way, tracking is looking eerily close.

 

Edited May 14, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[Deep Wang]

 

[cdsacken]

Gimme gimme gimme .....please

 

 

Edited May 14, 2019 by cdsacken

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Don't be a tease. Whip it out. Stuff it in. Give us your girth.

 

Can't think of anymore double enteredes.

[Stewart]

8 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

gimme JW3 > 2m and Aladdin < 1m 

Edited May 14, 2019 by Stewart

[Deep Wang]

3 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Don't be a tease. Whip it out. Stuff it in. Give us your girth.

 

[Biggestgeekever]

26 minutes ago, Deep Wang said: