Jump to content

grim22

The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

Recommended Posts

Recommended

Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
Recommended by Cap
  • Like

7 reactions

Go to this post
Recommended

Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
Recommended by Cap
  • Thanks
  • Like

14 reactions

Go to this post
Mulder Global Phenomenon

Mulder

Posted
Posted

Though I have to say on this topic and maybe I'll end up with egg on my face here.... If it quacks like a duck. Walks like a duck. And looks like a duck.... It's a duck.

  • Disbelief 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites


Nova Global Phenomenon

Nova

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Nova said:

I mean I don’t think Solo is a 1:1 comp for Aladdin because Solo is way more presale heavy. I guess I should clarify and say that for a Star Wars movie, Solo’s Fandango numbers indicated it wasn’t going to hit its tracking and thus its 4-day wasn’t surprising. 

 

Its presales in general were strong. So if say Aladdin is keeping pace with it then it’s a very good sign. On the other hand, if it’s falling behind by a lot, we consider that Star Wars is a presale heavy franchise and take that into consideration before claiming the sky is falling. 

 

But in either situation (whether comparing Aladdin to Solo or comparing Aladdin to other 3 day openers) I feel like considerations need to be taken into place and not do a 1:1 comp for it 

But irregardless, I think the sales for Aladdin right now would indicate a $90-100M 4-day opening. I could be wrong but that’s what I’m feeling right now looking at Pulse and looking at thursday night at my theater. 

Edited by Nova
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Nova said:

I mean I don’t think Solo is a 1:1 comp for Aladdin because Solo is way more presale heavy. I guess I should clarify and say that for a Star Wars movie, Solo’s Fandango numbers indicated it wasn’t going to hit its tracking and thus its 4-day wasn’t surprising. 

 

Its presales in general were strong. So if say Aladdin is keeping pace with it then it’s a very good sign. On the other hand, if it’s falling behind by a lot, we consider that Star Wars is a presale heavy franchise and take that into consideration before claiming the sky is falling. 

 

But in either situation (whether comparing Aladdin to Solo or comparing Aladdin to other 3 day openers) I feel like considerations need to be taken into place and not do a 1:1 comp for it 

This is why I think checking the daily numbers over the last few days will be interesting.  I know for a fact that Solo was tepid and flat.  What I want to see if Aladdin follows that flatness without the huge pre-sale lead Solo had.

 

Basically look at the curvelines/trendlines.  This close to release, the fact that SW is so pre-sales heavy should be fairly irrelevant on the day to day look.

Edited by Porthos
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites


Mulder Global Phenomenon

Mulder

Posted
Posted (edited)

Love when people respond to looking at actual numbers with the disbelief, confusion, or not cool reactions. Like yeah it's not lining up with what you'd ideally want to have happen, that's just facts. If KoTM was having bad pre-sales I'd be the first to say it.

Edited by Mulder
  • Like 2
  • Haha 1
  • Disbelief 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Nova Global Phenomenon

Nova

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

This is why I think checking the daily numbers over the last few days will be interesting.  I know for a fact that Solo was tepid and flat.  What I want to see if Aladdin follows that flatness without the huge pre-sale lead Solo had.

 

Basically look at the curvelines/trendlines.  This close to release, the fact that SW is so pre-sales heavy should be fairly irrelevant on the day to day look.

 I wasn't saying your comp wasn't good because from what I gathered in your posts that what's you'd explained lol More so comparing the Fandango sales 1:1 wouldn't be ideal :)

 

BUT

 

I would be interested to see if we get a Deep Wang update, where it'll fall. If it's on the lower side of things then who knows what's happening. But if its on the higher side (like on Fandango) then maybe the distributed tickets for Monday theory is more plausible.  

Edited by Nova
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites


Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Nova said:

I would be interested to see if we get a Deep Wang update, where it'll fall. If it's on the lower side of things then who knows what's happening. But if its on the higher side (like on Fandango) then maybe the distributed tickets for Monday theory is more plausible.  

*sends up the Deep Wang signal*

 

batsignalclouds.jpg

@Deep Wang

 

(If anyone thinks I'm making a stylized version of it, you're flippin' crazy - I like my posting privileges :lol:)

  • Haha 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cooper Legion Global Phenomenon

Cooper Legion

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

17 PT 5/18/19 (End of Sat) 

  


1	32.3%	John Wick:Chapter 3 - Parabellum
2	28.1%	Avengers: Endgame
3	18.4%	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
4	5.3%	A Dog’s Journey
5	3.3%    The Hustle

 

Nothing too interesting here

17 PT 5/19/19 (End of Sun)  

  

1	33.4%	John Wick:Chapter 3 - Parabellum
2	25.3%	Avengers: Endgame
3	18.1%	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
4	5.6%	A Dog’s Journey
5	3%    The Hustle

I wonder if tomorrow will be a whole new world.

  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites


Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

17 PT 5/19/19 (End of Sun)  

  


1	33.4%	John Wick:Chapter 3 - Parabellum
2	25.3%	Avengers: Endgame
3	18.1%	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
4	5.6%	A Dog’s Journey
5	3%    The Hustle

I wonder if tomorrow will be a whole new world.

Aladdin has actually just passed The Hustle on the Fandango tracker (which will reset in a few hours) when combined, so I imagine it'll show up on MT sometime tomorrow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites




Cooper Legion Global Phenomenon

Cooper Legion

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Aladdin has actually just passed The Hustle on the Fandango tracker (which will reset in a few hours) when combined, so I imagine it'll show up on MT sometime tomorrow.

Yeah, I’m strongly expecting it. Wick showed up Monday with similarly weak 5th place competition.

Link to comment
Share on other sites








TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted

One thing about Memorial Day weekend and Aladdin...if it doesn't deliver a $100M 4 day, that's gonna leave a lot of money on the table for the top 3 holdovers (JW3, Pika, and Endgame)...so, there's money that some movie will be grabbing next weekend b/c while Memorial Day weekend is an opening swimming pool/beach weekend, it also does have a lot of casual movie-going money that goes to something:)...I mean, I'd say the other 2 openers could fill the gap, but I don't see Booksmart or Brightburn really moving beyond their niche market...

 

So, we only have 1 big opener...and that's a light Memorial Day weekend set that should benefit Aladdin if it's not atrocious or should benefit the big 3 if it is...

Link to comment
Share on other sites


Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)

Aladdin now at #4 on the Fandango rolling tracker; Godzilla at #12:

  

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-18 21:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	39.708%	30927	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
2	19.422%	15127	Avengers Endgame (2019)
3	15.086%	11750	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
4	03.708%	2888	A Dogs Journey
5	03.355%	2613	Aladdin (2019)
6	02.868%	2234	The Hustle (2019)
7	02.158%	1681	Long Shot
8	01.827%	1423	The Intruder (2019)
9	01.244%	969	Avengers Endgame  (2019)
10	01.216%	947	The Sun Is Also a Star
11	01.048%	816	UglyDolls
12	00.755%	588	Poms
13	00.710%	553	Aladdin
14	00.550%	428	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
15	00.496%	386	Fandango Early Access The Secret Life of Pets 2
16	00.492%	383	The Curse of La Llorona
17	00.424%	330	Captain Marvel (2019)
18	00.357%	278	Steel Magnolias 30th Anniversary (1989) presented by TCM
19	00.333%	259	Dark Phoenix
20	00.318%	248	Spider-Man Far From Home (2019)
21	00.315%	245	Tolkien
22	00.307%	239	Godzilla King of the Monsters -
Edited by Porthos
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites






Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.

  I accept