The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric Lasagna]

Movie/Date

Monday

Pets 2 Early	903
	5 days
Godzilla	1,217
	11 days
Secret Life of Pets 2	124
	18 days
Dark Phoenix	392
	18 days
Spider-Man FFH	416
	43 days

 

Godzilla

Last 7 Days (17-11)

22% of Captain Marvel (33.6M)

178% of John Wick 3 (minus days 14-12) (101.4M)

 

Having this hit 1,200 tickets already is a great sign. By comparison, John Wick hit 1,000 at the same time.

 

Pets 2

Last 7 Days (24-18)

246% of Hotel 3 (108.6M)

69% of Grinch (46.9M)

22% of Dragon 3 (12.2M)

 

Basically all over the place.  But if we're using Grinch as the best example here...let's just hope the next few days see an increase.

 

Dark Phoenix

Last 7 Days (24-18)

27% of Captain Marvel (41.6M)

 

I guess that's alright? It'll hopefully improve in the coming weeks to something more respectable

[Maximum Avery]

2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

And that's what I was talking about with people saying the same thing, but some being disappointed and some being happy...

 

After BaTB 2017, it's amazing that we are talking about being happy if Aladdin can just match its DOM total from 27 YEARS AGO:)...that's insane to me, that this movie isn't automatically doubling that value (just b/c of ticket inflation), but at this point, $434M DOM would take a miracle...it is more possible that it somehow might not even achieve the 1992 total...

 

For me, that's a disastrous remake...for others, who didn't live through 1992, it seems just fine:)...

Lived thru 1992 and its still fine:) TTVOMJ

[TwoMisfits]

So, local sets are coming very late this week...

 

As of now, in my area, 2 theaters - a 14 and an arthouse 7, have set for the week...the 14 is skipping on Aladdin (don't freak - they are close to another theater, and if the movie isn't huge, sometimes they each pass on alternating movies - things like supers get booked at both, but it's not ALWAYS the case, although both did Endgame, Pika, and JW3), and the 7 gave Aladdin 1.5 screens, but is weirdly only booked on 6.5...like they are holding that 1/2 screen they were gonna obviously give to Aladdin hostage...still too early to see how this will get set, but it's a few clues from around here...

Edited May 21, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Nova said:

Poor Porthos gonna wake up and come to the tracking thread to see this 

I decided not to dignify such obvious trolling with a reaction. 

 

So beneath my notice that @titanic2187 isn't even getting an apoc or not cool reaction out of me for that post. 

[Tinalera]

I will my london numbers (THURSDAY previews only)

 

June 23 

 

Aladdin 

 

Silver city london

 

7pm avx 64 of 323

10pm avx 4 of 323

 

68 of 626

 

Westmount

 

710 37 of173

1010 16 of 173

 

53 of 346

 

Secret life of pets2. June 6

 

Silvercity

7pm 5 of 111

915pm 0 of 111

 

5 of 222

 

No show at Westmount

 

 

Edited May 21, 2019 by Tinalera

[Tinalera]

Godzilla king of the monsters

May 30

 

Silvercity

 

IMAX

4pm 5/323

7pm 25/323

10pm 3/323

33/929

 

Westmount

Avx

7pm 5/59

10pn 1/59

 

6/118

 

Rocketman

June 30

 Silvercity

7Pm 14/111

1030 0/111

14/222 

( i must have misread because i was sure they were near sellout for 7pm guess not)

 

Westmount

7pm. 40/63

10pm 10/63

Edited May 21, 2019 by Tinalera
Spelling

[filmlover]

5 screens for Aladdin at my theater this weekend. They never book that high unless a big opening is in store so $100M+ for the 4-day is definitely in the cards.

[YM!]

I’ll do Laddie tonight but also my theater is going to let Dark Phoenix die. It has the smallest auditorium, two screenings 7:00 and 10:00, and Godzilla still has the PLF. Not to mention for a CBM it’s presales are horrendous. Wouldn’t be surprised at $40M OW even though it’s early.

 

Pets 2 also got a somewhat small auditorium.

Edited May 21, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[filmlover]

Also, my theater is putting Booksmart in one of the smallest theaters all day except for the last show which is in a medium-sized theater. Ugh, it's gonna flop isn't it? Thanks once again, Annapurna! 

[Mulder]

15 hours ago, Mulder said:

Final count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-130 (+5), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 2 Regular)

Aladdin-143 (+24), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening) Final Week

Dark Phoenix-70 (+6), 6 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

 

Remember when I said Aladdin had to improve greatly on my end for me to consider it doing good? Well it happened. I'll talk more in the comparison post but if this momentum keeps up, I'd say 60+ 3 day is safe. In total today Godzilla sold 5 tickets, Phoenix sold 6, and Aladdin sold a giant 24 tickets.

First count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-136 (+6), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 2 Regular)

Aladdin-154 (+11), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 3 Regular+Fan Screening) Final Week

Dark Phoenix-70, 6 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

 

Good start for Godzilla today and uh yeah that Aladdin momentum I mentioned last night seems to be continuing. My theater also added a showing for it which is always a good sign.

[Mulder]

4 minutes ago, Mulder said:

First count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-136 (+6), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 2 Regular)

Aladdin-154 (+11), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 3 Regular+Fan Screening) Final Week

Dark Phoenix-70, 6 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

 

Good start for Godzilla today and uh yeah that Aladdin momentum I mentioned last night seems to be continuing. My theater also added a showing for it which is always a good sign.

 

On 5/6/2019 at 2:06 PM, Mulder said:

First count of today, only Thursdays-

Aladdin-69 (+1), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

Detective Pikachu-161 (+17), 6 screenings (3 3D, 3 Regular) Final Week

John Wick-82 (+5), 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular)

 

Holy shit that Pikachu number. 

 

On 5/14/2019 at 2:27 PM, Mulder said:

First count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-95 (+6), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 2 Regular)

Aladdin-90 (+4), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

John Wick-142, 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular) Final Week

Dark Phoenix-40 (-1), 6 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

 

Kind of wish I was seeing more action from John Wick but hopefully that'll come later. 

Below Pikachu but above John Wick for the start of the day. Hm... I'll say more once we see how it's day concludes.

[Porthos]

Been meaning to say this for a while now.  One thing that I'm very grateful for Endgame is that it has REALLY kickstarted this thread and turned it into one of the busiest in the forum.  Looking back last year, this thread would get a few posts a day, and sometimes none at all during the slower periods.  This includes the spring/summer months, BTW.

 

But ever since EG (and truthfully a little before it), we've been getting tons of theater reports, looks at Fandango/MovieTickets data and generally just good conversation about pre-sales.  I think it's been helping us sharpen our expectations at least (if not results) and overall just has risen the quality of discussion 'round these parts.

 

There is the occasional bout of OT posting (that I in no way help happen on occasion... *cough* ), but in general this thread has become a great resource for tracking and discussion about movies and I'd like to thank each and every poster who has been taking the time out to post about their theaters, or just try to take a stab at pre-sale discussion.

 

So thank you one and all.  Your contributions have been very welcome for this poster:

 

[cdsacken]

I love this thread. Extremely numbers oriented with a little bit of sidetrack to keep it busy.

 

Porthos you have been on fire with the predictions as of late. Curious to see your final Aladdin preview prediction.

 

I like seeing the comps from Eric, and mulder and everyone providing their individual theater counts provides information which is interesting to see how often it directly correlates. It's not always about being right or wrong but it feels like this thread pretty much always nails the trend of a movie (over or underperform relative to tracking). 

 

Keep up the good work, much appreciated!

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

It's a great thread and frankly, the most valuable in terms of box office analysis on the forum. This is becoming quite the database for presale info.

 

Thanks to all who make it happen!

Edited May 21, 2019 by Jayhawk

[cdsacken]

1	34.684%	23410	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
2	14.700%	9922	Aladdin (2019)
3	13.217%	8921	Avengers Endgame (2019)
4	10.241%	6912	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
5	02.694%	1818	Aladdin

17	00.606%	409	Avengers Endgame  (2019)

 

Aladdin with a huge lead for 2nd place now.

[TwoMisfits]

On 5/13/2019 at 10:44 PM, TwoMisfits said:

VERY early set for 1st local - Cinemark...I'm surprised, but then again, the major college in town graduates this Friday, so when you see the set, you're probably not gonna be surprised:).  In GOOD news, John Wick pulls TWO+ full screens (although in a weird split)...now the rest of the set, you'll just have to read:)...but it's a bloodbath for the bad holds...

 

NEW

JW3 - (2.25 - 5 showings on biggest screen, 6 showings on smallest screens split with 2 movies) - I'm betting they were originally planning this for 1 screen, b/c the smallest screen showings are all over the place, like they are finding what they can give

A Dog's Journey (1 - 6 showings - above average screen) - this will probably be a mistake

4 foreign films (1.25 - 6 showings - smallest screen)

 

RETURNING

Pika - (2 - now 12 showings - 1 3d, 11 2d - dropped to above average screen and smallest screen, but a win for this one with the extra showings giving this film the same capacity as last week)

Endgame (2.5 - 10 showings) - it lost 1 screen - keeps 1 largest size screen and 1.5 smallest size screen

The Hustle (1 - 5 showings) - the winning holdover of the "bad" movies b/c it kept a screen

Maharashi (.75 - 3 showings) - lost .25 screen

The Intruder (.25 - 1 showing) - lost .75 screen - the "winning" May 3rd movie

 

GONE

Everything else - May 3rd movies wiped out!  Long Shot - Gone!  UglyDolls - Gone!  (The Intruder the sole movie standing with a single showing, so gone next week:)!  Curse of LL and Capt Marvel (finally gone - what a stretch, though)...

 

Now, note, 1 screen is still open.  It's obvious the theater is probably trying to book another foreign film b/c they tend to thrive on them, and it's been very tight for them since Endgame opened (see this week, booking 4 new ones, but each only getting 1-2 showings).  I think they may be booking 1 more or holding the screen for performance...I'll update this when I know...

1st local - Cinemark - finally is set:).  They are sticking with a "blockbuster and bollywood" strategy, again skipping one of the week's wide releases to make sure they have enough screens for what they want.  And in GOOD news for Aladdin, it's not gonna be seat-limited - it pulled ALMOST 3 screens, and that's the set that movies that CAN go over $100M get (now, that is not a guarantee, but it means the space is available...now the movie has to deliver:)...anyway, here's the set...

 

NEW

 

Aladdin - (2.75 - 9 2d, 5 3d showings - late show lost on 3rd screen) - it also got the 2 biggest screens and an above average one - a better set for them than the presales here are warranting, but the theater is obviously hoping it delivers:)...

Brightburn (1 - 6 showings) (smallest screen type)

India's Most Wanted (1 - 5 showings (smallest screen type)

 

Booksmart was NOT booked here...

 

RETURNING

 

JW3 (1.75 - 9 showings) - lost 2 showings

A Dog's Journey (1 - 5 showings) - amazingly kept a full screen - must have been a good contract, or the theater is covering themselves for the Mem Weekend families in case Aladdin doesn't draw

Detective Pikachu (1.5 - 9 showings) - lost 3 showings

Endgame (1.75 - 7 showings) - lost 3 showings and moved to smaller screen size

1 Bollywood movie (.25 - 1 showing) - split on Endgame screen

 

1 screen is still to be booked - it will almost certainly be a few more random showings of foreign films, ala last week

 

GONE

The Hustle, The Intruder, the other foreign films...

 

So, as expected...all the films from May 10 and before are gone except Endgame and Pika...this is a feast or famine box office right now, and it's probably not gonna change next week...

Edited May 21, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Cap]

 

 

 

36 minutes ago, Porthos said:

So thank you one and all.  Your contributions have been very welcome for this poster:

 

No,

 

 

Thank you.

 

 

[Nova]

@Porthos you’re welcome! I’m glad you appreciate my always wrong predictions and stubbornness to ignore data. Finally someone appreciates what I do on here. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

An Incredibles 2 comp for Monday yields a ~90 million 3-day for Aladdin, I'd say it'll be slightly more ps-heavy than that so maybe 80 million 3-day/100 million 4-day. However, BATB was extremely ps-heavy, if it emulated that then using a Captain Marvel comp we'd get something in the 40s for the 3-day, adjusting for the fact that Captain Marvel was unusally ps heavy even for the MCU maybe more like 55. A Solo comp also yields somewhere around 60. I still think this movie could be a lot more presale-heavy than we would think, based on the performance of BATB, so wouldn't rule out another Memorial Day splat even with decent-looking presales.

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

An Incredibles 2 comp for Monday yields a ~90 million 3-day for Aladdin, I'd say it'll be slightly more ps-heavy than that so maybe 80 million 3-day/100 million 4-day. However, BATB was extremely ps-heavy, if it emulated that then using a Captain Marvel comp we'd get something in the 40s for the 3-day, adjusting for the fact that Captain Marvel was unusally ps heavy even for the MCU maybe more like 55. A Solo comp also yields somewhere around 60. I still think this movie could be a lot more presale-heavy than we would think, based on the performance of BATB, so wouldn't rule out another Memorial Day splat even with decent-looking presales.

Movies with female leads tends to be more presales heavy, so CM and BTAB probably isn’t the best comparissons.