The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-30 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	28.667%	20381	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
2	21.601%	15358	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
3	16.295%	11585	Rocketman
4	08.730%	6207	Ma (2019)
5	05.947%	4228	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
6	04.315%	3068	Avengers Endgame (2019)
7	02.751%	1956	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
8	02.470%	1756	Booksmart
9	01.485%	1056	Brightburn
10	01.384%	984	Toy Story 4 [combined]
11	01.015%	722	Dark Phoenix [combined]

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-31 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	26.714%	20938	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
2       20.223% 15850   Aladdin (2019) [combined] 
3	19.006%	14897	Rocketman
4	12.522%	9815	Ma (2019)
5	06.153%	4823	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
6	04.275%	3351	Avengers Endgame (2019)
7	02.638%	2068	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
8	02.202%	1726	Booksmart
9	01.134%	889	Brightburn
10      00.773% 606     Dark Phoenix [combined]
11      00.746% 584     Toy Story 4 [combined]

[Porthos]

It's dangerous to do this given that Fandango isn't necessarily a representative sample.

 

Still...

 

Last Friday:

On 5/24/2019 at 10:31 PM, Porthos said:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-24 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	48.911%	40070	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
2	15.455%	12236	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
3	09.358%	7409	Avengers Endgame (2019) [combined]
4	05.218%	4131	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
5	04.798%	3799	Brightburn
6	04.465%	3535	Booksmart
7	02.545%	2015	Fandango Early Access The Secret Life of Pets 2
8       01.465% 1160    Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
9	01.304%	1032	A Dogs Journey
10	01.278%	1012	The Hustle (2019)

 

Tonight:

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-31 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	26.714%	20938	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
2       20.223% 15850   Aladdin (2019) [combined] 
3	19.006%	14897	Rocketman
4	12.522%	9815	Ma (2019)
5	06.153%	4823	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
6	04.275%	3351	Avengers Endgame (2019)
7	02.638%	2068	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
8	02.202%	1726	Booksmart
9	01.134%	889	Brightburn
10      00.773% 606     Dark Phoenix [combined]
11      00.746% 584     Toy Story 4 [combined]

 

(KotM:  1160 | Dark P:   606)

 

        

[Biggestgeekever]

Given the way a lot of films have heavily underperformed this summer/year, would Dark Phoenix falling 50% fom Apocalypse be that surprising? Especially considering the muted theater count estimate.

[Porthos]

On 5/26/2019 at 12:36 PM, Porthos said:

Didn't keep the quick look as a spreadsheet so I can't go down and dirty on adj's or anything like that.  But as of right now, Dark Phoenix has sold 457 tickets region wide.

 

At T-11 (Sat Night checks) I had:

May Movies:

KotM at       762 seats sold.

Aladdin at   901 seats sold. (3.55m)

Pika Pika at 618 seats sold. (4.21m - matinee and few PLF)

 

Other comps:

FB2 at        1772 seats sold. (2.35m - FB2 over-performed in Sacto)

JW:FK at     1606 seats sold. (4.35m)

Solo at       3404 seats sold. (1.89m - SW is notoriously pre-sale heavy)

 

Recent CBMs (don't have AM&tW or Venom that far out - never checked Aquaman) :

EG at       18601 seats sold. (1.47m)

CM at        4085 seats sold. (2.32m)

DP2 at       2808 seats sold. (3.02m - DP2 did not have 3D)

IW at         7873 seats sold. (2.26m)

 

Everything FB2 and before is a little off due to extra sources of tracking, but that'd just lower the comp, not raise it, as there were a handful of tickets sold at the theater that now has reserved seating.

 

=====

 

Just eyeballing it, the Fan Event showings locally are not doing well.  At all.  The TrueIMAX theater in town has one and it's sold 34/376 tickets (not including wheel chair assist). The other two ONFEs in the region have sold 4 (out of 199) and 19 (out of 207) tickets respectively.

 

As for regular showings, one at Century Arden is doing very well as is another at Century Blue Oaks.  But aside from that it's scattered sales everywhere else.

So I decided after comments from @Darth Lehnsherr and @Charlie Jatinder to check Dark Phoenix again locally.  Maybe I messed up my count.  Maybe it's grown a bit over the last five days.

 

Sadly, not really.  At T-6 days, it now stands at 618 tickets sold region wide.  That's an increase of 161 tickets over five days, or 32 tickets per day.  That's not exactly ideal at this point.

 

I actually decided to be a bit more through this time, so I can give exact comps:

 

At T-6:

May Movies:

Pika Pika had   1,024 seats sold (3.44m - matinees, few PLFs) (down from 4.21m)

Aladdin had     1,261 seats sold (3.43m)                                 (down from 3.55m)

KotM had         1,086 seats sold (3.59m - matinees)               (down from 3.77m)

 

Other Comps:

FB2 had           2,449 seats sold (2.21m) (down from unadjusted comp of 2.35m)  [DP adj: 595 seats sold]

JW:FK had        2,086 seats sold (4.25m) (down from unadjusted comp of 4.35m) [DP adj: 580 seats sold]

Solo had          3,829 seats sold (2.14m) (up from unadjusted comp of 1.89m) [DP adj: 580 seats sold]

 

Recent CBMs (don't have AM&tW or Venom that far out - never checked Aquaman) :

EG at              19,692 seats sold (1.88m) (up from 1.47m)

CM at               4,925 seats sold (2.60m) (up from 2.32m)

DP2 at              3,564 seats sold (3.03m) (up from unadjusted comp of 3.02m) [DP adj: 580 seats sold]

IW at                9,009 seats sold (2.51m) (up from unadjusted comp of 2.26m) [DP adj: 580 seats sold]

====

 

So the CBM comps went up slightly, as well as Solo. Everything else went down.

 

It's gonna pick up these last six days, and even if it has a lackluster amount of ticket sales it's almost hard for it to NOT gain ground on the movies ahead of it.

 

And I am NOT calling for between 3m and 4m here in previews. I ain't making any sort of call without final day data.

 

But, gotta tell ya, six days out, things don't look great in the land of tomatoes. 

 

Edited June 1, 2019 by Porthos

[McClintonforThree]

So Godzilla is performing even worse than my absolute worst case scenario. I'm absolutely furious. Everyone is saying the characters and plot are bad without even knowing why. Literally nobody can explain it to me. It's the perfect popcorn movie. I am flabbergasted why it's bombing so hard. I think I'm gonna log off for about a week. I'll be back but I'm just so depressed about the performance of this movie that I don't even want to think about the box office for a while. Smdh.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

54 minutes ago, McClintonforThree said:

So Godzilla is performing even worse than my absolute worst case scenario. I'm absolutely furious. Everyone is saying the characters and plot are bad without even knowing why. Literally nobody can explain it to me. It's the perfect popcorn movie. I am flabbergasted why it's bombing so hard. I think I'm gonna log off for about a week. I'll be back but I'm just so depressed about the performance of this movie that I don't even want to think about the box office for a while. Smdh.

IKR? 🤷🏻‍♀️

 

No offense to DOM or OS whatsoever, but the audience who avoids very good movies (that deserves more money than what they ended with...like HTTYD3 for example), are just so stupid. Doesn’t quality matter so much anymore?

 

Shame on you, worldwide audience. Shame on you. 🤦🏻‍♀️

[Maximum Avery]

15 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

IKR? 🤷🏻‍♀️

 

No offense to DOM or OS whatsoever, but the audience who avoids very good movies (that deserves more money than what they ended with...like HTTYD3 for example), are just so stupid. Doesn’t quality matter so much anymore?

 

Shame on you, worldwide audience. Shame on you. 🤦🏻‍♀️

I kinda agree for the last 15 years or so(since shrek 2 happened), but they cant hear you:(

 

TTVOMJ

[Cookson]

I’m in the same boat.. the experience of my showing was fantastic last night. People were CLAPPING at the end. Confused is a great word because the film is really just a non stop popcorn ride... perfect for the summer. 

 

All we we can hope is that the people who enjoyed it push others to watch today and Sunday.....

[RealLyre]

so Dark Phoenix is looking at high 30s to low 40s OW at best? dang I'm still excited for it but I was hoping it would meet its tracking at least. It's still looking like it will be a massive bomb box office wise

 

 

[cdsacken]

I always thought Dark Phoneix looked truly horrible. 3.5 previews and 35 wouldn't shock me at all with a massive drop the week after.

[titanic2187]

The only thing can save DP is great RT score, but nothing suggest that RT score will be great or at least good. 

 

X-men franchise will close on a miserable note.  

[keysersoze123]

24 hour tracker.

 

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	21.627%	16550	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
2	19.290%	14762	Aladdin (2019)
3	19.089%	14608	Rocketman
4	11.914%	9117	Ma (2019)
5	06.549%	5012	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
6	04.632%	3545	Avengers Endgame (2019)
7	04.022%	3078	Godzilla King of the Monsters -
8	02.836%	2170	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
9	02.129%	1629	Booksmart
10	01.863%	1426	Aladdin
11	01.133%	867	Brightburn
12	00.734%	562	Dark Phoenix
13	00.606%	464	Toy Story 4

 

Rocketman PS to OD was really weak. It should have at least done 10m on pure friday.  otherwise Aladdin and Godzilla were in line with Pulse sales.

 

 

Looking at last full hour, Aladdin is ahead of Zilla. It should comfortably win saturday.

 

2019-06-01 08:00:00	879	Rocketman
2019-06-01 08:00:00	800	Aladdin (2019)
2019-06-01 08:00:00	559	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
2019-06-01 08:00:00	263	Ma (2019)
2019-06-01 08:00:00	231	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2019-06-01 08:00:00	199	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
2019-06-01 08:00:00	132	Godzilla King of the Monsters - The IMAX 2D Experience
2019-06-01 08:00:00	113	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
2019-06-01 08:00:00	75	Aladdin 3D
2019-06-01 08:00:00	74	Godzilla King of the Monsters 3D (2019)
2019-06-01 08:00:00	61	Booksmart
2019-06-01 08:00:00	30	Brightburn
2019-06-01 08:00:00	20	A Dogs Journey
2019-06-01 08:00:00	18	The Secret Life of Pets 2
2019-06-01 08:00:00	15	Toy Story 4
2019-06-01 08:00:00	14	Dark Phoenix
2019-06-01 08:00:00	8	The Hustle (2019)

 

Compared to yesterday

 

2019-05-31 08:00:00	902	Rocketman
2019-05-31 08:00:00	719	Aladdin (2019)
2019-05-31 08:00:00	695	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
2019-05-31 08:00:00	386	Ma (2019)
2019-05-31 08:00:00	190	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
2019-05-31 08:00:00	172	Godzilla King of the Monsters - The IMAX 2D Experience
2019-05-31 08:00:00	163	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2019-05-31 08:00:00	97	Godzilla King of the Monsters 3D (2019)

 

Zilla PS for saturday is still not great. I am expecting soft increase.

 

25999	2019-05-30	THU	Godzilla: King of the Monsters
30286	2019-05-31	FRI	Godzilla: King of the Monsters
18377	2019-06-01	SAT	Godzilla: King of the Monsters
6069	2019-06-02	SUN	Godzilla: King of the Monsters

 

Last thing is TS4 has slowed down quite a bit.

Edited June 1, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

24 hour tracker.

 

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	21.627%	16550	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
2	19.290%	14762	Aladdin (2019)
3	19.089%	14608	Rocketman
4	11.914%	9117	Ma (2019)
5	06.549%	5012	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
6	04.632%	3545	Avengers Endgame (2019)
7	04.022%	3078	Godzilla King of the Monsters -
8	02.836%	2170	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
9	02.129%	1629	Booksmart
10	01.863%	1426	Aladdin
11	01.133%	867	Brightburn
12	00.734%	562	Dark Phoenix
13	00.606%	464	Toy Story 4

 

Rocketman PS to OD was really weak. It should have at least done 10m on pure friday.  otherwise Aladdin and Godzilla were in line with Pulse sales.

 

 

Looking at last full hour, Aladdin is ahead of Zilla. It should comfortably win saturday.

 

2019-06-01 08:00:00	879	Rocketman
2019-06-01 08:00:00	800	Aladdin (2019)
2019-06-01 08:00:00	559	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
2019-06-01 08:00:00	263	Ma (2019)
2019-06-01 08:00:00	231	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2019-06-01 08:00:00	199	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
2019-06-01 08:00:00	132	Godzilla King of the Monsters - The IMAX 2D Experience
2019-06-01 08:00:00	113	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
2019-06-01 08:00:00	75	Aladdin 3D
2019-06-01 08:00:00	74	Godzilla King of the Monsters 3D (2019)
2019-06-01 08:00:00	61	Booksmart
2019-06-01 08:00:00	30	Brightburn
2019-06-01 08:00:00	20	A Dogs Journey
2019-06-01 08:00:00	18	The Secret Life of Pets 2
2019-06-01 08:00:00	15	Toy Story 4
2019-06-01 08:00:00	14	Dark Phoenix
2019-06-01 08:00:00	8	The Hustle (2019)

 

Compared to yesterday

 

2019-05-31 08:00:00	902	Rocketman
2019-05-31 08:00:00	719	Aladdin (2019)
2019-05-31 08:00:00	695	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
2019-05-31 08:00:00	386	Ma (2019)
2019-05-31 08:00:00	190	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
2019-05-31 08:00:00	172	Godzilla King of the Monsters - The IMAX 2D Experience
2019-05-31 08:00:00	163	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2019-05-31 08:00:00	97	Godzilla King of the Monsters 3D (2019)

 

Zilla PS for saturday is still not great. I am expecting soft increase.

 

25999	2019-05-30	THU	Godzilla: King of the Monsters
30286	2019-05-31	FRI	Godzilla: King of the Monsters
18377	2019-06-01	SAT	Godzilla: King of the Monsters
6069	2019-06-02	SUN	Godzilla: King of the Monsters

 

Last thing is TS4 has slowed down quite a bit.

Zilla Saturday PS is not that bad relative to Friday (although poor in terms of my pre-OW expectations), expecting a 30% bump at minimum. Have to consider that most movies (e.g. Pikachu) will only match their Friday presales even with a decent Saturday bump.

[Tinalera]

Have to see if godzilla climbs wom after opening weekend. Shazam had good audience reaction to film. I thought wom would carry but it didnt. Wonder if godzilla has same direction-people like it but doesnt translate to more wom sales. Its sounds like a perfect summer movie. Hope it manages to leg out

[Eric is Quiet]

8 hours ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Given the way a lot of films have heavily underperformed this summer/year, would Dark Phoenix falling 50% fom Apocalypse be that surprising? Especially considering the muted theater count estimate.

I pinned the movie down for a 35/80, and I still stand by that. At this point, most of the people who would be excited for it are likely more interested in the MCU reboot than the actual film itself.

[Joyous Legion]

1 hour ago, CoolEric258 said:

I pinned the movie down for a 35/80, and I still stand by that. At this point, most of the people who would be excited for it are likely more interested in the MCU reboot than the actual film itself.

Yep, this is a very common sentiment among people I talk to IRL. It’s in a pretty unique and hype-killing situation there.

[FlashMaster659]

On 5/30/2019 at 12:56 PM, FlashMaster659 said:

 

Toy Story 4 - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 82/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 130/203

8:45 PM - 102/203

11:30 PM - 32/203

 

3D Dine-In Full Service

 

6:30 PM - 18/78

9:30 PM - 5/78

 

RealD 3D

 

7:45 PM - 8/167

10:30 PM - 0/167

 

2D

 

7:00 PM - 93/217

9:45 PM - 13/217

 

Total

 

483(+145)/1533 (31.5%)

 

I know it's a bad comp but since it's the only one I've got...

 

0.1578x as many seats sold as Avengers: Endgame after 2 days of pre-sales

 

Toy Story 4 - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 118/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 137/203

8:45 PM - 111/203

11:30 PM - 30/203

 

3D Dine-In Full Service

 

6:30 PM - 25/78

9:30 PM - 10/78

 

RealD 3D

 

7:45 PM - 8/167

10:30 PM - 0/167

 

2D

 

7:00 PM - 111/217

9:45 PM - 13/217

 

Total

 

563(+80)/1533 (36.7%)

[Cookson]

@Menor disappointing 1pm update. How’s it look now? Thanks

[Joyous Legion]

On 5/31/2019 at 5:22 PM, Thanos Legion said:

17 PT 5/31/19 (End of Fri)  

1	28.1%	Aladdin
2	23.4%	Godzilla: King of the Monsters
3	18.6%	Rocketman
4	10.4%	Ma
5	5.2%    John Wick:Chapter 3 - Parabellum  

 

Hmm, don’t think I’ll ever have to issue a #1 update for KotM.

17 PT 6/1/19 (End of Sat)  

1	29.4%	Aladdin
2	21.7%	Godzilla: King of the Monsters
3	17.9%	Rocketman
4	8.5%	Ma
5	6.1%    John Wick:Chapter 3 - Parabellum   

Aladdin will hold the #1 spot this week (on MT, but also presumably the Sat-Thurs dailies). SLOP and XDP should pass next weekend, but I think it might be #2 2 and 3 weekends from now.

[Joyous Legion]

Double post

Edited June 2, 2019 by Thanos Legion