The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[XXR & Friends]

4 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

The Lion King Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 Days and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	102	2,468	18,457	13.37%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 267

 

 

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

The Lion King Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	209	17990	21695	3705	17.08%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:               330

 

Unadjusted Comps

4.2734x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 8 days before release.

3.4401x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 8 days before release.

4.0894x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters 8 days before release.

1.8913x as many tickets sold as Toy Story 4 8 days before release.

 

T-8:

Pika      132 seats sold [0 sellouts/64 shows |   6485/7352 seats    |   867 seats sold | 11.79% sold]

Aladdin  54 seats sold [0 sellouts/74 shows |  9641/10718 seats  | 1077 seats sold |  10.05% sold]

KotM      61 seats sold [0 sellouts/93 shows | 11736/12642 seats  |   906 seats sold |   7.17% sold]

TS4        91 seats sold [1 sellout/90 shows   | 10350/12309 seats  | 1959 seats sold | 15.92% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

1.8095x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 8 days before release.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

T-8:

JW2           94 seats sold  [0 sellouts/111 shows |   9354/11263 seats | 1869 seats sold | 16.59% sold]

TLK (JW)  284 seats sold  [0 sellouts/209 shows | 15765/19147 seats | 3382 seats sold | 17.66% sold]

TLK (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

 

[XXR & Friends]

@Porthos So TLK sold 330 tickets with the same number of days left as TS4 sold 91. That’s 3.6x as many. I’m curious how long do you think that run rate will last? Or at least how long do you think the escalation will go before a bit more parity is met? 

 

If it were to continue at the pace through next Thursday, which I don’t believe is feasible, we’d be looking at a comparable previews total in the $35m range. 

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

WEEKLY UPDATE

 

CINEPLEX SCOTIABANK MONTREAL

 

THE LION KING - THURSDAY JULY 18 2019

 

Ultra AvX 3D

6:30pm - 122/378 (+34)

9:30pm - 70/378 (+38)

Regular 3D

7:00pm - 4/347 NEW

7:30pm Non Reserved NEW

10:00pm - 0/347 NEW

10:30pm Non Reserved NEW

Regular

5:00pm - Fan Event - Non Reserved

6:00pm - 57/385 (+33)

8:00pm - Non Reserved

9:00pm - 43/385 (+20)

11:00pm - Non Reserved

11:45pm - 0/385 NEW

 

FAST & FURIOUS PRESENTS: HOBBS & SHAW - THURSDAY AUG 1 2019

 

IMAX

7:00pm - 9/343

10:10pm - 2/343 (+2)

Regular 3D

7:30pm - 0/390

10:40pm - 2/390 (+2)

 

Lion King continues to sell well and added 5 more showtimes since last week. Now has 12 total thurs preview showtimes compared to Aladdin which had 2 and TS4 which had 4. 

 

Hobbs and Shaw is still not doing anything. 

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

CINEPLEX FORUM (MONTREAL)

 

THE LION KING - THURSDAY JULY 18 2019

 

IMAX

6:30 - 63/306 (+15)

IMAX 3D

9:25 - 28/306 (+23)

 

FAST & FURIOUS PRESENTS: HOBBS & SHAW - THURSDAY AUG 1 2019

 

No Preview Showtimes listed Yet

 

Seems fine for Lion King but don't have comps as I just started tracking this cinema last week

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Eric is Quiet]

On 7/10/2019 at 2:14 AM, CoolEric258 said:

Using @Porthos multiples

 

Pikachu: 26.2

Aladdin: 23.1

Godzilla: 25.2

TS4: 21.7

FK: 26.7

 

Yeah I know it's just one market, and no comp is perfect, blah blah blah, but...that seems pretty alright.

Using them now...

Pikachu: 24.4

Aladdin: 24.1

Godzilla: 25.8

TS4: 22.7

FK: 27.7

[XXR & Friends]

14 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Using them now...

Pikachu: 24.4

Aladdin: 24.1

Godzilla: 25.8

TS4: 22.7

FK: 27.7

 

The numbers are becoming more consistent....

 

👀

[cdsacken]

Must not Stan must not Stan. Premature stanulation is not good.

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 7/8/2019 at 8:49 PM, Menor said:

Stuber previews:

Theaters: 203

Showings: 459

Tickets Sold: 654

Tickets Available: 45742

Estimated ATP: 11.3

Total Estimated Sales: $7389

Estimated Nationwide Sales: $60k

 

Crawl previews:

Theaters: 209

Showings: 497

Tickets Sold: 630

Tickets Available: 47847

Estimated ATP: 11.46

Total Estimated Sales: $7219

Estimated Nationwide Sales: $60k

 

Btw I have a feeling TLK is gonna make a run at the theater count record

As of last night

Stuber:

Theaters: 218 (+15)

Showings: 542 (+83)

Tickets Sold: 1528 (+874)

Tickets Available: 52143 (+6441)

Estimated ATP: 11.53 (+0.23)

Total Estimated Sales: 17616 (+$10,227)

Esimated Nationwide Sales: $140k (+$80k)

 

Crawl:

Theaters: 226 (+17)

Showings: 630 (+133)

Tickets Sold: 1797 (+1167)

Tickets Available: 57583 (+9736)

Estimated ATP: 11.4 (-0.06)

Total Estimated Sales: 20492 (+$13,273)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: $160k (+$100k)

 

[Sheikh]

https://deadline.com/2019/07/fast-furious-hobbs-shaw-box-office-projection-dwayne-johnson-jason-statham-1202644843/

 

Universal’s Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw landed on tracking this morning and the expectation is that the film will make between $55M-$65M.

[FlashMaster659]

23 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

The Lion King – AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 141/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 169/203

9:00 PM - 159/203

12:00 AM - 64/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

6:00 PM - 25/78

6:30 PM - 19/63

7:00 PM - 15/78

8:45 PM - 18/60

9:15 PM - 7/78

9:45 PM - 6/63

10:15 PM - 4/78

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 4/55

6:45 PM - 0/44

7:30 PM - 2/167

8:00 PM - 4/114

8:30 PM - 0/114

9:00 PM - 2/79

9:30 PM - 0/55

10:00 PM - 0/44

10:30 PM - 3/167

11:15 PM - 0/114

11:45 PM - 0/114

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM - 37/63

8:00 PM - 37/61

8:30 PM - 42/63

10:45 PM - 25/63

11:15 PM - 28/61

11:45 PM - 11/63

 

2D

 

6:00 PM - 20/44

6:15 PM - 28/55

6:30 PM - 59/217

6:45 PM (1) NEW - 0/44

6:45 PM (2) - 0/48

7:00 PM - 36/79

7:15 PM - 21/44

7:45 PM - 17/44

8:00 PM - 20/45

8:15 PM - 29/167

8:30 PM (1) - 9/45

8:30 PM (2) NEW - 0/114

8:45 PM - 11/44

9:00 PM - 9/49

9:15 PM - 3/44

9:30 PM (1) - 8/55

9:30 PM (2) NEW - 0/55

9:45 PM - 7/217

10:00 PM (1) NEW - 0/44

10:00 PM (2) - 7/48

10:15 PM - 2/79

10:30 PM - 2/44

11:00 PM - 0/44

11:15 PM (1) - 0/45

11:15 PM (2) NEW - 0/114

11:30 PM - 16/167

11:45 PM (1) - 0/45

11:45 PM (2) NEW - 0/114

 

Total

 

1126(+70)/4384 (25.7%)

 

The Lion King – AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 146/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 170/203

9:00 PM - 159/203

12:00 AM - 75/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

6:00 PM - 31/78

6:30 PM - 20/63

7:00 PM - 18/78

8:45 PM - 20/60

9:15 PM - 7/78

9:45 PM - 6/63

10:15 PM - 7/78

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 6/55

7:30 PM - 2/167

8:00 PM - 4/114

9:00 PM - 2/79

10:30 PM - 3/167

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM - 37/63

8:00 PM - 37/61

8:30 PM - 43/63

10:45 PM - 25/63

11:15 PM - 28/61

11:45 PM - 11/63

 

2D

 

6:00 PM - 20/44

6:15 PM - 30/55

6:30 PM - 64/217

6:45 PM - 3/44

6:45 PM (2) - 0/48

7:00 PM - 39/79

7:15 PM - 23/44

7:45 PM - 18/44

8:00 PM - 20/45

8:15 PM - 34/167

8:30 PM (1) - 9/45

8:30 PM (2) - 2/114

8:45 PM - 13/44

9:00 PM - 11/49

9:15 PM - 8/44

9:30 PM (1) - 8/55

9:30 PM (2) - 0/55

9:45 PM - 7/217

10:00 PM (1) - 0/44

10:00 PM - 7/48

10:15 PM - 4/79

10:30 PM - 2/44

11:00 PM - 0/44

11:15 PM - 0/45

11:15 PM (2) - 0/114

11:30 PM - 16/167

11:45 PM (1) - 0/45

11:45 PM - 0/114

 

Total

 

1195(+69)/4089(-295) (29.2%)

[FlashMaster659]

Looking at where TS4 was at at the Ontario 6 days before previews, TLK is gonna have a really good jump from where I had it when I last comp'd it to TS4 when I provide the comp tomorrow.

[XXR & Friends]

6 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Looking at where TS4 was at at the Ontario 6 days before previews, TLK is gonna have a really good jump from where I had it when I last comp'd it to TS4 when I provide the comp tomorrow.

 

Hmm, your last comp was just over 1.4x as I recall. Maybe 1.6x tomorrow?

[FlashMaster659]

12 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Hmm, your last comp was just over 1.4x as I recall. Maybe 1.6x tomorrow?

Maybe

[Eric is Quiet]

41 minutes ago, Sheikh said:

https://deadline.com/2019/07/fast-furious-hobbs-shaw-box-office-projection-dwayne-johnson-jason-statham-1202644843/

 

Universal’s Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw landed on tracking this morning and the expectation is that the film will make between $55M-$65M.

That sounds about right. Buzz doesn't feel anywhere near as strong as Fate of the Furious, although us being in the middle of Lion King fever probably doesn't help.

[filmlover]

That's about where I expected Hobbs & Shaw to land tbh. With how dead the rest of August looks to be I think it could leg it out to $180-200M depending on WOM.

[XXR & Friends]

55 minutes ago, Sheikh said:

https://deadline.com/2019/07/fast-furious-hobbs-shaw-box-office-projection-dwayne-johnson-jason-statham-1202644843/

 

Universal’s Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw landed on tracking this morning and the expectation is that the film will make between $55M-$65M.

 

12 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

That sounds about right. Buzz doesn't feel anywhere near as strong as Fate of the Furious, although us being in the middle of Lion King fever probably doesn't help.

 

Yep. That’s a much more believable and expected range than BOP’s $100m opening. I still don’t know how they arrived at that number

[lorddemaxus]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

That's about where I expected Hobbs & Shaw to land tbh. With how dead the rest of August looks to be I think it could leg it out to $180-200M depending on WOM.

Considering how frontloaded the other films are, I don't think this movie will have those kinds of legs. August may be dead but TLK will still be going strong. I think a 2.5x multiplier seems about right (less frontloaded than the previous entries).

[Minnale101]

Very possible lion king could have a bigger 3rd weekend than Hobbs and Shaw first weekend if that happens 

 

I can see lion king just have 6-7 weeks at number 1

[charlie Jatinder]

Imo, guys should take TLK to family films, as Endgame was to CBMs.

 

I mean if 20 tickets sold in a theatre for CM but 80 for Endgame led to 60:20, you should consider similar Pre-sale loading for TLK when compared with JW:FK or Aladdin.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Minnale101 said:

Very possible lion king could have a bigger 3rd weekend than Hobbs and Shaw first weekend if that happens 

 

I can see lion king just have 6-7 weeks at number 1

Not sure after seeing the reviews. I could see this be quite front loaded.

[Cap]

The Lion King - Crawl - Stuber - Hobbs & Shaw

Thursday Previews

 

Sorry.  I was too tired to write up the post last night.  These are Wednesday's numbers.

 

The Lion King
	7.5	7.8	7.1	Sold	Total	%	Shows	SOs
Empire 25	1698	990	1109	119	7341	15.10%	40	0
Lincoln Square 13	1288	1389	1458	69	6472	21.46%	21	0
SM Cinemagic	58	79	103	21	2434	3.24%	14	0

 

Empire 25 recovered nicely from losing the four sold outs.  Good bump.  Cinemagic had a great day.  Lincoln Square is more of the same (IMAX and Dolby strong; 3D and standard weak).

 

The current comps are:

 

Film	Sold	%	Est
T-8 Before Release - LS13
TLK	1458	--
Aladdin	543	268%	18.79
TS4	--	--	--
T-8 Before Release - SMCM
TLK	103	--
Aladdin	16	643%	45
TS4	36	286%	34.33

 

1.  I apparently don't have TS4 numbers for this week?  And I don't have time to dig them up on the board if I do.  

2. Again, LOL at my area's utter rejection of Aladdin before its release.

 

If you comp against Final Sales at Lincoln Square:

 

2 v Comps Final Day
Movie	Sold	%	Est.
Lincoln Square 13
TLK	1458	--	--
Endgame	5259	27.72%	16.63
Aladdin	836	174.40%	12.2
Toy Story 4	1273	114.53%	13.74

 

So New York is still not at 20M.  I think it'll get there, but that Aladdin T-8 comp os 18.79M feels right.

 

Onto:

 

Movies	Sold	Total	%	Showings
Empire 25
Crawl	131	707	18.52%	4
Stuber	94	554	16.96%	3
Hobbs & Shaw	283	2119	13.35%	7
Lincoln Square 13
Stuber	28	328	8.53%	2

 

Comments:

 

1. Hobbs & Shaw 3D are having whack issues.  They're showing as Sold Out on the website, and on the App one is empty and one is sold out.  I eliminated those showings completely from my comps.

 

2. Was too tired so didn't get H&S numbers for LS13 or SMCM last night.

 

3. LS13 has Stuber Thursday but not Crawl.  SMCM has neither.