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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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Joyous Legion Global Phenomenon

Joyous Legion

Posted
Posted
Just now, Eric! said:

It's 11PM

I love you guys. You produce so much content that minor typos are inevitable and I’m honestly impressed there aren’t more. I’m just oddly attentive to typos and copy paste relics, so when I see one that’s particularly funny I can’t help but comment 😛 

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FlashMaster659 Box Office Gold

FlashMaster659

Posted
Posted

Joker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 Days

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats Sold

Total Seats

Seats Left

% Sold

TOTALS

0

167

3137

39908

36771

7.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 215

 

T-5 Comps:

 

   %

 

 

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

It: 2

98.59

 

 

3182

 

0/163

34256/37438

8.50%

 

10.35m

 

===

 

As I had been thinking the past couple days, it's running neck-and-neck with It: 2 on the first day I have a direct comp. As for if it remains on pace for a double digit preview number, we shall see.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted

Joker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

199

22897

24366

1469

6.03%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

111

 

T-5 Comps (somewhat lol at this stage - don't take seriously)

 

   %

 

Sold T-5

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

It 2

80.45

 

138

1826

 

0/167

18137/19963

9.15%

 

8.45m

PRE-SALES NOTE: It 2 had 36 days of pre-sales while joker had 11. 

 

T-5 Adjusted Comps (somewhat lol at this stage - don't take seriously)

 

   %

 

Sold T-5

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

DP2

36.02

 

167

3731

 

0/121

9736/13467

27.70%

 

6.70m

Joker (adj)

n/a

 

93

1344

 

0/199

18270/19614

6.85%

 

n/a

PRE-SALES NOTE: Deadpool 2 had 30 days of pre-sales, while Joker had 11.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: Joker (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Deadpool 2.

 

====

 

Pretty sleepy Saturday.  For the first time, Joker didn't gain ground on It 2 (Joker paced 80% of It 2 exactly today).  That's a tiny bit more worrisome for Joker's prospects than the standard sleepy Saturday, as it can be the down day before the ramp up beings in earnest.  But not gonna lie, would have liked to see a little more out of Sacto today.

 

Just have to see how it goes.

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 9/27/2019 at 10:05 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Day 5(T-6)

 

NYC. Slowed down further but overall numbers are great. Should cross overall IT2 numbers at Empire by Monday at latest.

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

SF. Very good day. Metreon sold more tickets today than yesterday. Good number in few other AMC theaters as well.

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Day 6 (T -5)

 

NYC. At Empire it has had the slowest day yet though I expect things to start ramping up starting tomorrow. Overall numbers still good. I expect Joker to overtake IT2 by Monday. Same story in SF. Metreon should cross 1000 tickets by monday.

Spoiler

AMC Empire 25
Imax:      61/303(430PM),     241/303(730PM),      99/303(1030PM)Total 401/909
Dolby:     122/225(400PM),     213/225(700PM),     141/225(1000PM)Total 476/675
Prime:      80/180(500PM),     138/180(800PM),      61/180(1100PM)Total 279/540
2D:       3/122(A10 410PM),       4/377(A13 415PM),       4/121(A15 420PM),       0/99(A11 440PM),       4/158(A6 450PM),       5/146(A7 510PM),
       2/145(A25 520PM),       5/309(A14 530PM),      15/144(A20 540PM),       6/134(A5 550PM),       9/309(A9 6PM),       9/121(A21 610PM),
       4/126(A3 620PM),      19/262(A17 630PM),      15/99(A16 640PM),      19/142(A19 650PM),       8/122(A10 710PM),      26/377(A13 715PM),
      15/121(A15 720PM),      11/99(A11 740PM),      11/158(A6 750PM),       8/146(A7 810PM),      16/145(A25 820PM),      31/309(A14 830PM),
       8/144(A20 840PM),       6/134(A5 850PM),       4/309(A9 9PM),       3/121(A21 910PM),       4/126(A3 920PM),      20/262(A17 930PM),
       8/99(A16 940PM),      16/142(A19 950PM),       3/122(A10 1010PM),       3/377(A13 1015PM),       2/121(A15 1020PM)
       0/99(A11 1040PM),       4/158(A6 1050PM),       2/146(A7 1110PM),       2/145(A25 1120PM),       4/309(A14 1020PM)
      10/144(A20 1140PM),       6/134(A5 1150PM),       0/309(A9 12AM)  Total 354/7692

Overall 1510/9816 (+68)


AMC 34th St
Imax:310
Dolby:255
2d:154
Overall:719 (+29)

 

AMC Newport Center 11
Total Tickets sold:     414 (+29)

 

AMC Kips Bay 15
Total Tickets sold:     435(+26)


AMC 19th St East
Total Tickets sold:     217 (+23)

 

AMC Magic Johnson Harlem 9
Dolby:     123
2D:      28
Total:151 (+16)

 

 

SF

Spoiler

AMC Metreon 16
Dolby:     345
Imax:     438
2D:     136
Total Tickets sold:919 (+47)


AMC Bay Street
Imax:     106
Dolby:     276
2D:      29
Total Tickets Sold:411 (+23)

 

AMC Saratoga 14
Imax:      71
Dolby:     179
2D:      14
Total Tickets Sold:264 (+26)

 

AMC Mercado 20 (2D shows dont have reserved seats here !!! )
Dolby:     353 (+15)

 

Edited by keysersoze123
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Cap Summer Tentpole

Cap

Posted
Posted

Joker

Thursday Previews

 

This information is from Friday's sales, but due to Mom hogging all my attention, and then binge-watching all eight episodes of The Politician, I finally got it reading for posting.

 

Joker
Theater Today   9/23 9/25 9/27 Total %   SOs Tele SOs Shows
SM Cinemagic 9   14 35 44 2290 1.92%   0 0 16
Lincoln Square 13 120   1082 1312 1432 5819 24.60%   0 2 17

 

 

So this forced me to go through my data and clean it up for easier access, so that's good:

 

v Comps T-6 Day
Movie Sold % Est
Southern Maine Cinemagic
Joker 44 -- --
John Wick 3 46 95.65% 5.64M
Godzilla 47 93.61% 5.90M
Lion King 143 30.76% 7.07M
Lincoln Square 13
Joker 1432 -- --
Godzilla 790 181.26% 11.42M
Dark Phoenix 915 156.50% 7.82M
Lion King 1595 89.78% 20.64M

 

SMCM is clustering together rather nicely for a 6.20M average.  

 

LS13.  SO, it's not going to make 20M on Previews. Yet it's a good indication at how pre-sale heavy the movie is at Lincoln Square.  Only Endgame had sold more at the same time.  (I don't have date to date data, but AEG was at 3000-ish on Day ONE, so nothing will ever catch that until Frozen or Star Wars comes out.  The Comps are higher, yet they always are.  That's my next goal -- to figure out how much higher they are on average.  (This is more a long term, needs to be completed before Frozen, project.)

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Eric is Quiet Global Phenomenon

Eric is Quiet

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Nova said:

@Eric! random question but are you including any of the South Jersey theaters that are within the Philly area? Or is yours strictly PA? Just wondering before I start tracking those if you’re already tracking them lol 

Not tracking anything from Jersey. Go nuts

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Justin4125 Indie Sensation

Justin4125

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Walk ups finna be huuuuuge 

Feel compelled to reiterate that DC films, especially those including Batman/Joker, are some of the least walk-up heavy/most advance sale (Thursday) driven CBM movies (Nolan films as well, since BvS and Suicide Squad had reviews to weigh them down even more, TDK was much much more presale and Thursday-driven than its time-and-genre appropriate peers Spidey 3 and Ironman 1 & 2). 

 

In this case though its hard not to see a perfect storm brewing. Ridiculous first choice tracking metrics, awards buzz and controversy (which stirs tons of free media + adds curiosity + throws social media into a frenzy (all of which duh, only helps the movie, and the huge added bonus that divisiveness sells in today's world)) make me feel like 100m+ is an eventuality. If that isnt yet borne out in the tracking info, then in some way I guess I agree with you.... Though I still think in the end it will be more presale or Thursday heavy than most CBMs

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Justin4125 said:

Feel compelled to reiterate that DC films, especially those including Batman/Joker, are some of the least walk-up heavy/most advance sale (Thursday) driven CBM movies (Nolan films as well, since BvS and Suicide Squad had reviews to weigh them down even more, TDK was much much more presale and Thursday-driven than its time-and-genre appropriate peers Spidey 3 and Ironman 1 & 2). 

 

In this case though its hard not to see a perfect storm brewing. Ridiculous first choice tracking metrics, awards buzz and controversy (which stirs tons of free media + adds curiosity + throws social media into a frenzy (all of which duh, only helps the movie, and the huge added bonus that divisiveness sells in today's world)) make me feel like 100m+ is an eventuality. If that isnt yet borne out in the tracking info, then in some way I guess I agree with you.... Though I still think in the end it will be more presale or Thursday heavy than most CBMs

My joke notwithstanding, I think it's which set of headwinds win out in the end:

 

DC's pre-sale heavy nature.

R-rated adult skewed type film.

 

Got two strong sets of indicators that normally point in opposite directions.  Complicating matters is the 4pm start time.  Usually depresses the previews-OW internal multi, though It 2 did pretty well at 8.7x off a 5pm start.  On the other hand, OUaTiH got 7.1x on a 4pm start time, and that was with a much lower preview number.

 

Now because DC does tend to have a strong Thur, still plenty of time for pre-sales to spike for Thur's preview number.  What happens after that is anyone's guess.

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