The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

Reason I am skeptical is it does not play as wide as TLK which had generational appeal across ages. This plays great with families with girls. Plus the biggest chain it does not have the showcount that blockbusters have. Joker started with 52 shows at empire 25 and F2 has 6!!! Even Dolby shows have not sold that great. One would expect blockbusters to fill them up very quickly. Without shows at AMC it aint hitting double digit previews. So I would wait and watch before going all in.

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Reason I am skeptical is it does not play as wide as TLK which had generational appeal across ages. This plays great with families with girls. Plus the biggest chain it does not have the showcount that blockbusters have. Joker started with 52 shows at empire 25 and F2 has 6!!! Even Dolby shows have not sold that great. One would expect blockbusters to fill them up very quickly. Without shows at AMC it aint hitting double digit previews. So I would wait and watch before going all in.

That is fair. We will have to wait and see how things play out. But I don't think optimistic speculation is any worse than pessimistic as long as people don't get too invested in it.

[FlashMaster659]

Probably doesn't mean much but Frozen 2 pre-sales beat TLK on Atom

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/05/frozen-2-top-selling-animated-film-in-first-day-of-presales.html?__source=twitter|main

Edited November 5, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Probably doesn't mean much but Frozen 2 pre-sales beat TLK on Atom

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/05/frozen-2-top-selling-animated-film-in-first-day-of-presales.html?__source=twitter|main

Atom reports dont mean much though its good that it beat TLK there. TS4 did beat I2 but OW was no where close. i like our data better.

[Nova]

The AMCs in my area haven’t given it a lot of showtimes either but the joke will be on them considering United Artist and Cinemark are giving it blockbuster level treatment around here. 
 

And for what it’s worth the regular showing at the one theater I checked (an AMC) yesterday is now at 120/142. There’s a United Artist roughly 15 minutes from that particular theater that has 10 showtimes for Thursday night. If the AMC isn’t planning on adding more showtimes for Thursday then people will go to UA. But I really don’t imagine AMC being stubborn and NOT giving it more showtimes as release gets closer especially with how relatively quiet it’s been (minus Joker) box office wise until that movie comes out. 

[a2k]

Frozen's 5-day was 93.9 (Wed-Sun)

Now very optimistically Frozen2 can double that over it's own 5-day period (Fri-Tue) but to expect it double it over FSS it too far imo.

 

If Frozen2 does 188 Fri-Tue then FSS will be 160+. 150-160 FSS would be mind-blowing and don't think it can beat that. It took Frozen 17 days to hit 147 (ignoring 5 day limited run where it did 0.3) and on 18th day was on 157+. For Frozen2 to do that in 3-days is optimistic enough?

 

Am thinking 140 ow * 3.4x = 476 dom

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, Nova said:

The AMCs in my area haven’t given it a lot of showtimes either but the joke will be on them considering United Artist and Cinemark are giving it blockbuster level treatment around here. 
 

And for what it’s worth the regular showing at the one theater I checked (an AMC) yesterday is now at 120/142. There’s a United Artist roughly 15 minutes from that particular theater that has 10 showtimes for Thursday night. If the AMC isn’t planning on adding more showtimes for Thursday then people will go to UA. But I really don’t imagine AMC being stubborn and NOT giving it more showtimes as release gets closer especially with how relatively quiet it’s been (minus Joker) box office wise until that movie comes out. 

Having said all of this, I’m not sure TLK will happen or even I2 OW for that matter even though I have it predicted in that range. The reason why I say that is because both of those movies opened during the summer so Thursday for Frozen 2 won’t be as big due to school on Friday. Secondly, the movie comes out a weekend before a holiday weekend and I know a lot of folks may just hold out on watching it OW in order to catch it during Thanksgiving break. The latter isn’t an excuse mind you if the movie doesn’t open to huge OW numbers but something I’m already expecting to happen for it regardless of how big or how small the OW number is. But I still think with holiday legs that it can gross as much as both of those films if not more than them.

 

I just don’t want people freaking out if the movie doesn’t open to expectations because holiday films tend to have strong legs. 

[Porthos]

8 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Naah, I was generally asking how will that look, Endgame, say 2 days of PS, vs TROS till now, until they both meet at common day.

I already have enough comps, I think, so I won't make a habit of adding that.  But since you asked.

 

At the end of Day One EG was at 14975 tickets sold locally and at the end of Day Two, it was at 16082 locally.

 

 

Adjusting for the fact that there is a theater which did sell tickets for EG that I can now track, TROS has currently sold 10802 tickets, which is 72.13% of EG's first day and 67.17% of EG's cumulative total after Day Two.

 

Maybe I'll update that on a irregular basis, though.

[Sunny Max]

19 minutes ago, a2k said:

Frozen's 5-day was 93.9 (Wed-Sun)

Now very optimistically Frozen2 can double that over it's own 5-day period (Fri-Tue) but to expect it double it over FSS it too far imo.

 

If Frozen2 does 188 Fri-Tue then FSS will be 160+. 150-160 FSS would be mind-blowing and don't think it can beat that. It took Frozen 17 days to hit 147 (ignoring 5 day limited run where it did 0.3) and on 18th day was on 157+. For Frozen2 to do that in 3-days is optimistic enough?

 

Am thinking 140 ow * 3.4x = 476 dom

in first day advances ticket sales Frozen 2 has sold most tickets of any other animated film in 2019 .. but of course it donest mean that it will beat TLK .. but still we can get an idea 

 

OW could be over $150 M with your multiply life time $510 M .. 

[narniadis]

I am not saying we need to ignore data or that everyone needs to chill the high expectations. I appreciate the amount of data yall have given, but we have a group that wont be satisfied and the annoyance of their behavior once Frozen isnt at peak will be as insufferable as it was for TS4. 

And I say that as one that is expecting Frozen to join the 500m club with good legs / reception. I am just not sold on that weekend being what it is, creating a summer like opening when its decisively not a 4-quad film and its animated which skews the female side even more. 

I applaud Cinemark and other chains for knowing it will be big and giving it decent showtimes, but it doesnt auto create the massive opening. 

But then again, I am an old coot around here that is always annoyed at the young crowd so 🤷‍♂️

[Menor the Destroyer]

19 minutes ago, narniadis said:

I am not saying we need to ignore data or that everyone needs to chill the high expectations. I appreciate the amount of data yall have given, but we have a group that wont be satisfied and the annoyance of their behavior once Frozen isnt at peak will be as insufferable as it was for TS4. 

And I say that as one that is expecting Frozen to join the 500m club with good legs / reception. I am just not sold on that weekend being what it is, creating a summer like opening when its decisively not a 4-quad film and its animated which skews the female side even more. 

I applaud Cinemark and other chains for knowing it will be big and giving it decent showtimes, but it doesnt auto create the massive opening. 

But then again, I am an old coot around here that is always annoyed at the young crowd so 🤷‍♂️

That's fair. I get the skepticism and it was annoying when people were hyping TS4 beyond belief.

[John Marston]

no way is Frozen 2 opening above Lion King. Won't happen

[filmlover]

Doctor Sleep and Midway are splitting the PLFs around here this weekend.

 

As for Frozen, I never expected it to be a record-setter. Keep in mind that it's opening a week before Thanksgiving/Black Friday and there will definitely be people waiting to see it until then. So if anyone's about to press any panic buttons, don't.

Edited November 5, 2019 by filmlover

[StarWarsMemer]

why is the range so huge

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, StarWarsMemer said:

why is the range so huge

Only one day of data so far

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, StarWarsMemer said:

why is the range so huge

Frozen 2? IMO, folks aren't quite sure what to make of it.  Frozen had a decent enough OW back in the day but a gobsmacking leggy run. Plus the very real fact that it is a cultural sensation that has had staying power like few other properties.

 

On the other hand, there have been quite a few disappointing sequels this year along with other family films that didn't hit their ceilings, so some folks are pumping the brakes a tad.

 

The key question, in my mind, is:  Is this only appealing to its core demo.  For all of the talk that this is the young women's answer to Incredibles 2, I would point out that Frozen was popular with boys as well.  It hasn't been the cultural force among them that it was with women, but Frozen didn't make it's original bank on just the female demographic.  And I tend to think people forget that.

 

Put simply, Frozen was popular among families, period.  It's just that it is really popular with a lot of women of certain ages.

 

So if it hits its marks, the sky could be the limit.  On the other hand, we could have something analogous to the TS4 situation where there was a strong start but not a historic OW.  Hence the large range of possibilities.
 

[frozenheart1993]

3 hours ago, Menor said:

Frozen 2 Presales (T-17)

 

Thursday: 

Theaters: 271

Showings: 2388

Tickets Sold: 18392

Tickets Sold (adj): 17596 (41% of the Lion King at T-10 at the exact same theaters)

Estimated Sales: 235878

Estimated Nationwide Sales: 1.4 million

 

Friday: 

Theaters: 273

Showings: 4318

Tickets Sold: 26072

Tickets Sold (adj): 24878 (64% of the Lion King at T-10 at the exact same theaters)

Estimated Sales: 290714

Estimated Nationwide Sales: 1.7 million

 

Saturday:

Theaters: 273

Showings: 4349

Tickets Sold: 31649

Tickets Sold (adj): 30199 (90%!!! of the Lion King at T-10 at the exact same theaters)

Estimated Sales: 315997

Estimated Nationwide Sales: 1.9 million

 

Again, I'm not saying this will beat the Lion King. It's one day of sales, things could slow down, etc. But I don't understand what's wrong with at least considering the possibility after a day like this. I was one of the naysayers on TS4, because the numbers never supported anything close to 200 million, and if F2 slows down I'll become a naysayer again. But there is no way to describe this as anything but a fantastic start.

 

I am sympathetic to those who are calling to chill with the big predictions, just from the hype I've felt and seen I would find it hard to see it going over 140 million. But the numbers say what they say, and F2 is a movie targeted at a demographic that is pretty underrepresented on this site.

 

Sorry, I don't quite understand what you mean. Do you think F2 can hardly exceed 140M OW?

[Legion Again]

FWIW (little) I'm a 23 yo single dude and Frozen might be my favorite "not a Disney SH" property of the decade. WDAS has a wide reach, even for entries with more of a skew one way or the other.

[cax16]

 

[XXR vs XXR]