The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Still, it is telling that 40-50M is a likely range for previews

Actually I think 50 is completely off the table. It's been 32 days since sale start and 18 is kind of low number IMO.

Granted there are still 25 days to go, but the pace really need to pick up in last 7-10 days for 40mn plus.

 

[jedijake]

30 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Actually I think 50 is completely off the table. It's been 32 days since sale start and 18 is kind of low number IMO.

Granted there are still 25 days to go, but the pace really need to pick up in last 7-10 days for 40mn plus.

 

Yeah, see this is what I am thinking too. The comps say $25-$30 million and it has not really changed much in the past month. Frozen 2 tickets never took off at the last minute. $12-$13 million was expected early on. Then it went to $9-$11 million. It ended up with $8.5 million because the last week never saw much of a spike. I am not sure how we can expect TROS to jump up by double.

 

 

Edited November 25, 2019 by jedijake

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

4 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Yeah, see this is what I am thinking too. The comps say $25-$30 million and it has not really changed much in the past month. Frozen 2 tickets never took off at the last minute. $12-$13 million was expected early on. Then it went to $9-$11 million. It ended up with $8.5 million because the last week never saw much of a spike. I am not sure how we can expect TROS to jump up by double.

 

So, @Jedi JatWhat do you think the preview number will be? 

Aren’t those comps for final count from our trackers, as in, if today was day of previews, 25-30 is where it you’ll be today? 

[charlie Jatinder]

5 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

So about $18.5mn previews so far. I doubt $50mn. I mean this far in PS it should have sold at least half of previews. A lot can change by walk-ins but I think 40mn is likely from here.

In last around 28 days, it has added just $3mn in previews, which IMO is very low. I don't have any comp (may be @grim22 could help us checking TLJ and TFA Wang numbers or other source which was there at that time).

 

Say it add another 3mn in next 2 Weeks, which is optimistic, it will need to add another 19mn in last 11 days for 40mn, which sounds like tough.

[jedijake]

30 minutes ago, The Fast and the Furiosa said:

Aren’t those comps for final count from our trackers, as in, if today was day of previews, 25-30 is where it you’ll be today? 

You know what, I am not actually sure. I guess so, but I am not sure how that is all calculated.

 

Frozen 2 had numbers in the same format saying $12 million for comps using what I assumed to be the same method. Look where it ended up in previews. Not sure how it got there.

Edited November 25, 2019 by jedijake

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

On 11/18/2019 at 12:49 PM, Jayhawk said:

Spoiler

 

TROS 11/18 Update #4 (Last Update 10/28)

Day	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Avg, Ticket Price	Gross	% of Seats Sold	(+) Previous Tickets	(+) Previous Gross
Thursday	1769	2808	$16.94	$31,394.25	63.00%	(+) 110	(+) $1,818.25
Friday	2124	5117	$14.62	$31,958.50	41.51%	(+) 230	(+) $3,303.25
Saturday	1984	5117	$14.62	$28,914.00	38.77%	(+) 224	(+) $3,339.25
Sunday	979	4895	$14.53	$13,899.50	20.00%	(+) 302	(+) $4,263.75
Total	6856	17937	$15.49	$106,166.25	38.22%	(+) 866	(+) $12,724.50

 

This is 3 weeks worth of sales here but the trends are pretty clear, even if sales have slowed down somewhat. Still, I think the into weekend sales are very, very promising, with even Sunday is showing real strength.

 

 

 

TROS 11/25 Update #5 (Last Update 10/28)

Day	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Avg, Ticket Price	Gross	% of Seats Sold	(+) Previous Tickets	(+) Previous Gross
Thursday	1845	2984	$16.69	$32,601.00	61.83%	(+) 76	(+) $1,206.75
Friday	2245	5117	$14.62	$33,777.75	43.87%	(+) 121	(+) $1,819.25
Saturday	2098	5117	$14.62	$30,631.25	41.00%	(+) 114	(+) $1,717.25
Sunday	1126	4895	$14.53	$15,877.25	23.00%	(+) 147	(+) $1,977.75
Total	7314	18113	$15.43	$112,887.25	40.38%	(+) 458	(+) $6,711.00

 

Preview sales have picked up compared to previous weeks and a couple of added showtimes to preview night has helped. Post-preview sales remain strong and have picked up a bit as well.

[a2k]

the hopeful outlook for SW9 at seems to be,

37.5 previews * 5 = 187.5 ow 

187.5 * 3 = 562.5 (using legs in between RO and SW8)

[cdsacken]

When did we start hoping for horrible SW9 numbers?

[jedijake]

5 minutes ago, a2k said:

the hopeful outlook for SW9 at seems to be,

37.5 previews * 5 = 187.5 ow 

187.5 * 3 = 562.5 (using legs in between RO and SW8)

Oye! Ouch! That hurts if true. Oh boy! And that's a 3.0X which I don't see an increase in multiplier from TLJ.

Edited November 25, 2019 by jedijake

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

7 minutes ago, a2k said:

the hopeful outlook for SW9 at seems to be,

37.5 previews * 5 = 187.5 ow 

187.5 * 3 = 562.5 (using legs in between RO and SW8)

I wouldn't necessarily call that hopeful, but those numbers are very much in the range of possibility.

[cdsacken]

Sw9 reception is likely to be A LOT more positive than the TLJ. I mean these hardcore pissed off fans who have loved Star Wars their whole life are gonna skip the 9th and final movie of an epic arc? That seems ridiculous.

Edited November 25, 2019 by cdsacken

[a2k]

Just now, jedijake said:

Oye! Ouch! That hurts if true. Oh boy! And that's a 3.0X which I don't see an increase in multiplier from TLJ.

as such it's tough to increase in legs but rare cases it happens (mi6, wick3, aiw) if the reception is great. in this case it could be easier for reception to be a significant improvement over sw8 and might stabilize and even increase legs. anything from 2.6-3.1 won't be a surprise to me.

[Eric Quinn]

11 minutes ago, jedijake said:

You know what, I am not actually sure. I guess so, but I am not sure how that is all calculated.

 

Frozen 2 had numbers in the same format saying $12 million for comps using what I assumed to be the same method. Look where it ended up in previews. Not sure how it got there.

The way Frozen and TROS are tracked were completely different.

 

With Frozen, which is typical for all other openers, I am tracking at the exact same time. So about a week before Thursday previews started, I was comparing Frozen II's tickets 7 days before release compared to Maleficent or Lion King's tickets 7 days before release. The reason why Frozen declined from 12M to 8M was because as the days went on, 5 days before release, 3 days before release, the increase in tickets sold wasn't as strong nor as prominent as those other films. That means those comps are going to go down.

 

Now TROS is done differently. Because the numbers are so high this far out in release compared to most other movies being tracked, the comps are numbers that are impossible to achieve. That's why I, and others, are comparing the final, Day 0 numbers of the movies being compared. Using It 2 as an example, TROS' sales 25 days before release are at 9,100 ticket. It 2's sales 25 days before release was at 507 tickets. By using the former as a numerator and the latter as a denominator, you get 17.949x that number. And using that multiple with It 2's 10.5M previews, you get 188.46M just for Thursday.

 

Obviously that's impossible, so to compromise, I use It 2's final presales number, where it sold 3,464 tickets once previews started, and compare that to TROS' current numbers. This leads to 2.627x, and 27.58M. So, if TROS doesn't anything from now until December 19, then we can estimate the preview numbers would be at around 27.5M, give or take a few. Of course, that's not what happens. Because each day will have at least some sort of increase in tickets sold, unless hundreds of people randomly decide to get a refund, because the denominator of 3,464 is stagnant, there's going to be an increase every day. If just 100 tickets get sold today, then the comp will increase from 27.58M to 27.89M.

 

So no, comps are not indicating 25-30M, and, at least for comps comparing final numbers, it won't drop, unless some freak accident occurs. Now, what does this actually mean? What's the number these indicate? I don't know. I'm sure once we get closer to release I'll have a better answer, but I have no clue. At the very least, it should do at least 30M, but exact numbers, or whether it will hit 40M or even 50M? No clue.

[jedijake]

24 minutes ago, Eric Plus said:

The way Frozen and TROS are tracked were completely different.

 

With Frozen, which is typical for all other openers, I am tracking at the exact same time. So about a week before Thursday previews started, I was comparing Frozen II's tickets 7 days before release compared to Maleficent or Lion King's tickets 7 days before release. The reason why Frozen declined from 12M to 8M was because as the days went on, 5 days before release, 3 days before release, the increase in tickets sold wasn't as strong nor as prominent as those other films. That means those comps are going to go down.

 

Now TROS is done differently. Because the numbers are so high this far out in release compared to most other movies being tracked, the comps are numbers that are impossible to achieve. That's why I, and others, are comparing the final, Day 0 numbers of the movies being compared. Using It 2 as an example, TROS' sales 25 days before release are at 9,100 ticket. It 2's sales 25 days before release was at 507 tickets. By using the former as a numerator and the latter as a denominator, you get 17.949x that number. And using that multiple with It 2's 10.5M previews, you get 188.46M just for Thursday.

 

Obviously that's impossible, so to compromise, I use It 2's final presales number, where it sold 3,464 tickets once previews started, and compare that to TROS' current numbers. This leads to 2.627x, and 27.58M. So, if TROS doesn't anything from now until December 19, then we can estimate the preview numbers would be at around 27.5M, give or take a few. Of course, that's not what happens. Because each day will have at least some sort of increase in tickets sold, unless hundreds of people randomly decide to get a refund, because the denominator of 3,464 is stagnant, there's going to be an increase every day. If just 100 tickets get sold today, then the comp will increase from 27.58M to 27.89M.

 

So no, comps are not indicating 25-30M, and, at least for comps comparing final numbers, it won't drop, unless some freak accident occurs. Now, what does this actually mean? What's the number these indicate? I don't know. I'm sure once we get closer to release I'll have a better answer, but I have no clue. At the very least, it should do at least 30M, but exact numbers, or whether it will hit 40M or even 50M? No clue.

Thank you!!! That is very helpful!!

 

It DOES seem like those who want to see it on Thursday already bought the tickets or at least a high percentage of those wanting Thursday previews have done so.

[narniadis]

21 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Thank you!!! That is very helpful!!

 

It DOES seem like those who want to see it on Thursday already bought the tickets or at least a high percentage of those wanting Thursday previews have done so.

Its more those that wanted prime seats got them. Its what usually happens anyway, but we see it on a larger scale with the massive films. Hence why week of the sales generally increase since more screens are opened AND people realize if they are going they have to get a seat - good or bad. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

We are in the long tail so slow numbers are expected. While I wouldn't be surprised by 38-40 million previews I think the "hopeful" outlook would be higher.

[RockyMountain]

1 hour ago, cdsacken said:

Sw9 reception is likely to be A LOT more positive than the TLJ. I mean these hardcore pissed off fans who have loved Star Wars their whole life are gonna skip the 9th and final movie of an epic arc? That seems ridiculous.

 

THe hardcore fans will be there regardless for this movie no matter how they felt about the previous movie. THe trick is to get the more casual fans in the theater on OW who don't necessarily make a hobby of talking about Star Wars online. That will be the difference between rather the movie makes just 180m OW or 210-230 OW. And to get that you need to get good reviews.

[RockyMountain]

9 minutes ago, Menor said:

We are in the long tail so slow numbers are expected. While I wouldn't be surprised by 38-40 million previews I think the "hopeful" outlook would be higher.

I'd say hopeful would be 45-50. And that would happen if the reviews end up being 90%+ on RT. Realistically it will probably be somewhere between 40-45. With how the numbers have picked up the last couple weeks though I don't foresee anything below 40m previews unless the movie is horribly reviewed.

[Valonqar]

any tracking for Knives Out? I hope it breaks out.

Edited November 25, 2019 by Valonqar

[keysersoze123]

I am sticking to 50m previews. There are so many levers Disney can pull to amp up ticket sales. Apart from Disney+ show/games,tralers I think big one is reviews. These are unprecedented in that we never tracked these movies at macro level previously.