The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[RockyMountain]

Reports are now saying that AMC theaters may not open back up if theaters have to stay closed beyond mid summer.

 

https://deadline.com/2020/04/sp-amc-entertinment-cash-crunch-theaters-reopen-june-1202899484/

Edited April 5, 2020 by RockyMountain

[Morieris]

9 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

Reports are now saying that AMC theaters may not open back up if theaters have to stay closed beyond mid summer.

 

https://deadline.com/2020/04/sp-amc-entertinment-cash-crunch-theaters-reopen-june-1202899484/

 

They never properly remodeled ours after they bought out Carmike, but I still wouldn't want to see this happen

[RockyMountain]

Lee Fierro dies of corona. This is her scene from Jaws.

 

She was 91. Not sure how good of health she was in.

[Tinalera]

Bb bChecking in from great white north. Miss coming in to do numbers and talk box office. I miss you guys and gals.

 

It will be interesting to see the first movie to have boffo box office post covid (whenever that is). Be awesome if it was a small indy film just people desperate to get bacl theatres to watch something

[RockyMountain]

Almost 2000 deaths today. Criminy. Forget movie theaters. I'm beginning to think Fall sports will get cancelled. Things definitely need to start turning around in the next few weeks for movie theaters to realistically have any shot at all at opening up sometime during the summer.

 

2021 might be a year where they aren't terribly concerned about box office or competition. They will just need to get these movies out regardless of what might be opening up against them.

Edited April 8, 2020 by RockyMountain

[lorddemaxus]

15 hours ago, RockyMountain said:

Almost 2000 deaths today. Criminy. Forget movie theaters. I'm beginning to think Fall sports will get cancelled. Things definitely need to start turning around in the next few weeks for movie theaters to realistically have any shot at all at opening up sometime during the summer.

 

2021 might be a year where they aren't terribly concerned about box office or competition. They will just need to get these movies out regardless of what might be opening up against them.

The number of deaths in a day doesn't really mean its going to take longer for things to get back to normal. If anything, it means a steeper curve

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

AMC Theatres Bankruptcy Rumors Grow, But That Move Wouldn’t Be The End Of The Chain Or The Biz (Deadline):

 

 

Quote

Also, should AMC file for bankruptcy, that doesn’t mean that theatrical exhibition and moviegoing is dead. AMC can still re-open under Chapter 11 according to sources and that’s because studios and distributors are likely to be deemed by a bankruptcy court as critical vendors. In bankruptcy lingo, a critical vendor is one with a specialized skillset, mandatory safety certification or proprietary product whose discontinuation of service would have a significant negative impact on a debtor’s operations.

 

Explained in layman’s terms, movies from studios are the primary means by which AMC makes money, before popcorn or Coca-Cola. AMC on average reps 20%-25% of a wide release’s opening weekend gross, or up to 30% on a great weekend.  While an attrition in AMC locations is to be expected, studio distribution heads aren’t anticipating the chain’s demise. In fact, we hear AMC is already reaching out to find out what catalog titles are available from the majors for an anticipated May re-opening. Exactly where AMC reopens its 630 U.S. locations remains a question at this point in time. Should New York city, which is currently battling over 76K COVID-19 cases, continue to have cinemas closed throughout the summer, we understand that the majors would likely forgo the opening of an event title under such circumstances.

 

 

Quote

Already, AMC is sending a note around to landlords that they’re ceasing to pay rent effective this month (you can read that note from AMC’s SVP of Development and International, David Ellis here). In the letter, AMC notes that they’ve furloughed 25K employees, instituted a reduced pay program for general theatre managers, placing a hold on discretionary expenditures and making pay/employee cuts at their corporate headquarters in an effort to re-open as soon as it’s safe to do so. AMC also informs their landlords that they “intend to advocate at the federal level for appropriate relief for the theatre and exhibition industries.” It’s not clear yet how much AMC or other big circuits will cash in from the $2 trillion relief bill passed by Congress, though businesses with under 500 employees look to have an edge.

 

In the states, distribution bosses expect AMC’s roughly 200 Classic Theatres –which were former Carmike venues– to be a logical casualty in the chain’s attrition of locations. Many of these theaters are $1 theaters, and aren’t big revenue generators. Ever since AMC paid $1.2 billion for Carmike back in 2016, the former Columbus, GA circuit’s locations have been an albatross around AMC’s neck.

 

[XXR & Friends]

 

Current estimates are a 40% YOY drop in domestic box office. I imagine worldwide will be similar. 

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-offices-best-case-scenario-down-40-percent-1289032

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Current estimates are a 40% YOY drop in domestic box office. I imagine worldwide will be similar. 

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-offices-best-case-scenario-down-40-percent-1289032

no way bo cross $5Bn even if just 3 months ban.

Edited April 9, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[Gavin Feng]

lol, they thought three month ban? They should pray it wouldn't last 6 months or more.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Variety also on AMC

https://variety.com/2020/film/box-office/amc-theatres-bankruptcy-likely-1234575780/

[keysersoze123]

AMC deserve to die. Horrible decision to buy back shares even in February after knowing imminent risk of COVID. I hope they are not bailed out. Let someone new take over assets and run the theaters. 

[Barnack]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

AMC deserve to die. Horrible decision to buy back shares even in February after knowing imminent risk of COVID. I hope they are not bailed out. Let someone new take over assets and run the theaters. 

They slashed dividend and executives salary to pay for that and the buypack was a plan for the next 3 years.

 

They have 104.05 millions share today, they had 104.24M share in february (and 103.85 M in dec 31, i.e. they made more share than bought back in recent time), and considering their rents is close to a billion a year and that they have 10.3 billion debt...... that 200K share bought backs is virtually irrelevant (that what 1.4 millions dollars).

 

You could be a good person to ask this, is there a reason why you are looking more at buy back than dividend payments ? It is something I saw a lot lately, not sure yet why there is a big difference made between the 2.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Barnack said:

They slashed dividend and executives salary to pay for that and the buypack was a plan for the next 3 years.

 

They have 104.05 millions share today, they had 104.24M share in february (and 103.85 M in dec 31, i.e. they made more share than bought back in recent time), and considering their rents is close to a billion a year and that they have 10.3 billion debt...... that 200K share bought backs is virtually irrelevant (that what 1.4 millions dollars).

 

You could be a good person to ask this, is there a reason why you are looking more at buy back than dividend payments ? It is something I saw a lot lately, not sure yet why there is a big difference made between the 2.

Even dividends should be stopped unless companies have some cash pile. I see very few businesses focusing on building Free Cash Flow so that they are resilent when facing downturn. Here we have company paying dividend and buying back shares but a month of shutdown they are on verge of bankruptcy. Does not say much about the company. 

 

Big issue is Wall Street is myopic on focusing on next quarter EPS(or worse some bullshit number like EBDITA). So do anything to bump up numbers like buying back shares or operate in a highly leveraged manner(AMC has 4.0 Debt to Equity Ratio !!! ). Ultimately the people who suffer are employees and normal share holders. 

[Barnack]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Even dividends should be stopped unless companies have some cash pile. I see very few businesses focusing on building Free Cash Flow so that they are resilent when facing downturn. Here we have company paying dividend and buying back shares but a month of shutdown they are on verge of bankruptcy. Does not say much about the company. 

 

If that the case (lot of retired people lived from those, like buybacks) can I ask you why you mentioned the 3 year of planned buyback (that will probably not occur) announced in February, but not the fact they still went recently with a very small but still made one dividend ? You did focus on one and not the other, was there any reason (or simply that you didn't knew they still had a dividend payment made in march ?) And for example, why the word Even dividends and not of course dividend has well ?

 

I am not sure how relevant for how long the shutdown have been on, what matter is what the reasonable expectation of how long it will be. In term of 0 revenues, a month is ridiculously long for a movie theater and not something they should plan for it to happen. We are probably much better for them to run has if it will not happen for 100 years and for them to declare bankruptcy when it happen.

 

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Here we have company paying dividend and buying back shares but a month of shutdown they are on verge of bankruptcy. Does not say much about the company. 

Theater pretty much never stopped in the history of the USA, not during the spanish flu, not during WW2 and they are in the verge of bankruptcy not just after a month of shutdown, but with a month of shutdown with the quasi absolute certitude that it will be longer than that. This is asking of company to plan for never in a century type of events.

 

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ultimately the people who suffer are employees and normal share holders. 

And the people owning that debt, the people waiting for their rent money from AMC and a long list.

Edited April 9, 2020 by Barnack

[keysersoze123]

15 minutes ago, Barnack said:

If that the case (lot of retired people lived from those, like buybacks) can I ask you why you mentioned the 3 year of planned buyback (that will probably not occur) announced in February, but not the fact they still went recently with a very small but still made one dividend ? You did focus on one and not the other, was there any reason (or simply that you didn't knew they still had a dividend payment made in march ?) And for example, why the word Even dividends and not of course dividend has well ?

 

I am not sure how relevant for how long the shutdown have been on, what matter is what the reasonable expectation of how long it will be. In term of 0 revenues, a month is ridiculously long for a movie theater and not something they should plan for it to happen. We are probably much better for them to run has if it will not happen for 100 years and for them to declare bankruptcy when it happen.

 

Theater pretty much never stopped in the history of the USA, not during the spanish flu, not during WW2 and they are in the verge of bankruptcy not just after a month of shutdown, but with a month of shutdown with the quasi absolute certitude that it will be longer than that. This is asking of company to plan for never in a century type of events.

 

And the people owning that debt, the people waiting for their rent money from AMC and a long list.

What i meant is companies having ton of debt should not be paying dividends or buying back shares. There are so many profitable companies with good FCF who do play dividend. Big problem for retirees these days is 0%(or soon to be negative) interest. Ideally income should come from bonds/Savings/Money Market but at this interest levels they are forced to buy stocks to look for yields and even a 2% dividend looks good at this point. There are so many good companies (Walmart, Home Depot, Waste Management are few I like) to look for yields rather than companies like AMC whos stock has lost 90% of value over past few years. No use of dividend when principal is falling big time. 

 

On Shutdown we knew in January once Chinese theaters shutdown just before CNY. it was inevitable there would be global impact(we were seeing cases across the globe at that time though numbers were low). So AMC should have focused on what to do to prepare instead of Dividends and Stock Buy backs.  

[Barnack]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

On Shutdown we knew in January once Chinese theaters shutdown just before CNY. it was inevitable there would be global impact(we were seeing cases across the globe at that time though numbers were low). So AMC should have focused on what to do to prepare instead of Dividends and Stock Buy backs.  

To think that they should have focused for a multiple months complete shutdown of the industry seem captain hindsight and what they could have done ? The dividend and buy back of AMC in 2020 are virtually nothing (it is for how much in total 2 million of dollar ?).

 

I am not sure why it would be a big issue if theater chain declare bankruptcy if theater closes for months (or any sign that they were not well run).

[kitik]

So now that Soul has moved to Thanksgiving, we're pretty much looking at Tenet and Mulan in July being the first big releases on the current calendar.

 

It's only early April, and it's tough to know what the future holds, but for now it seems like there's a chance that theaters could be open on July 1. So Tenet and Mulan could potentially make those dates.

 

When theaters eventually do reopen, we know it's going to be slow. But something is going to have to be the first big release. An adult/family combo of Tenet/Mulan seems like it would target the broadest audience possible. And it would also be a combo of WB/Disney each "taking one for the team" to try to get audiences back to the theater.

[dudalb]

2 hours ago, kitik said:

So now that Soul has moved to Thanksgiving, we're pretty much looking at Tenet and Mulan in July being the first big releases on the current calendar.

 

It's only early April, and it's tough to know what the future holds, but for now it seems like there's a chance that theaters could be open on July 1. So Tenet and Mulan could potentially make those dates.

 

When theaters eventually do reopen, we know it's going to be slow. But something is going to have to be the first big release. An adult/family combo of Tenet/Mulan seems like it would target the broadest audience possible. And it would also be a combo of WB/Disney each "taking one for the team" to try to get audiences back to the theater.

No way that is happening, no studio is going to risk a huge release right after the theaters reopen. They will test the waters with a minor release before releasing the big films. Too much fear that audiences will still stay area from crowds of their  own volition even after theaters reopen.

[dudalb]

Re AMC: They were in bad shape even before the Covid crisis;  the virus probably just made the inevitable bankruptcy happen sooner rather then later.