The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

There's currently 5 movies set to open the entire week of Christmas (Matrix, Sing 2, The King's Man, American Underdog, A Journal for Jordan). Add in Spider-Man, Nightmare Alley, and West Side Story from the two weeks before and the battle for screen space sure isn't going to be an easy one.

Licorice Pizza is also expanding wide to 2000 on Christmas

 

Oh, I didnt see this mentioned lol. My mistake

Edited November 12, 2021 by BestPicturePlutoNash

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Ghostbusters: Afterlife Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	116	16677	17356	679	3.91%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

99

 

T-8 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold Day T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
TSS	145.71		54	466		0/86	14550/15016	3.10%		5.97m
SC	41.38		149	1641		0/108	15995/17487	8.53%		3.64m
V2	46.32		107	1466		0/168	26584/28050	5.23%		5.37m
NTTD	57.94		134	1172		0/144	21181/22353	5.24%		3.59m

 

T-8 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	48.45		100	1323		0/84	11791/13114	10.09%		3.60m
GA (adj)	---		85	641		0/102	14555/15196	4.22%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: GA (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in F9's track.

 

Regal:     143/6523 [2.19% sold] [+11 tickets]

Matinee:   35/1984 [1.76% | 5.15% of all tickets sold]

 

Ghostbusters: Afterlife Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	116	16620	17356	736	4.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

57

 

T-7 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold Day T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
TSS	142.08		52	518		0/87	14606/15124	3.43%		5.83m
SC	41.49		133	1774		0/111	15837/17611	10.07%		3.65m
V2	44.74		179	1645		0/173	26553/28198	5.83%		5.19m
NTTD	56.53		130	1302		0/144	21051/22353	5.82%		3.50m

 

T-7 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	49.50		91	1414		0/86	11869/13283	10.65%		3.68m
GA (adj)	---		59	700		0/102	14496/15196	4.61%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: GA (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in F9's track.

 

Regal:     162/6523 [2.48% sold] [+19 tickets]

Matinee:   34/1984 [1.71% | 4.62% of all tickets sold]

[Eric Prime]

On 11/10/2021 at 11:25 PM, Eric the Big Red Dog said:

Ghostbusters: Afterlife Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	66	675	14545	4.64%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 42

 

Comp

0.674x of F9 T-8 (4.78M)

1.758x of The Suicide Squad T-8 (7.21M)

0.479x of Shang-Chi T-8 (4.22M)

0.702x of Venom 2 T-8 (8.14M)

0.717x of No Time to Die T-8 (4.52M)

Ghostbusters: Afterlife Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	68	717	15113	4.74%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 42

 

Comp

0.680x of F9 T-7 (4.82M)

1.728x of The Suicide Squad T-7 (7.08M)

0.466x of Shang-Chi T-7 (4.1M)

0.691x of Venom 2 T-7 (8.01M)

0.679x of No Time to Die T-7 (4.28M)

 

Two bad days in a row here. Nothing too scary I suppose, but I am starting to hear some warning bells that Mickey's Law will continue its unstoppable reign.

[Eric Prime]

On 11/10/2021 at 11:26 PM, Eric the Big Red Dog said:

Sing 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-42 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	49	161	9354	1.72%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 11

Sing 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-41 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	49	200	9354	2.14%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 39

[SchumacherFTW]

24 minutes ago, Eric the Big Red Dog said:

Ghostbusters: Afterlife Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	68	717	15113	4.74%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 42

 

Comp

0.680x of F9 T-7 (4.82M)

1.728x of The Suicide Squad T-7 (7.08M)

0.466x of Shang-Chi T-7 (4.1M)

0.691x of Venom 2 T-7 (8.01M)

0.679x of No Time to Die T-7 (4.28M)

 

Two bad days in a row here. Nothing too scary I suppose, but I am starting to hear some warning bells that Mickey's Law will continue its unstoppable reign.

What's Mickey's law?

[Cooper Legion]

2 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

What's Mickey's law?

Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong — unless you are protected by the presence of the mouse.

[SchumacherFTW]

2 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong — unless you are protected by the presence of the mouse.

Ahhh OK. Cheers for clearing that up 👍

[Eric Prime]

9 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

What's Mickey's law?

For Non-Disney titles, anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Disney films can do poorly, but those aren't because of impacts by Mickey's Law. Likewise, the Sony Marvel movies are oftentimes exempt, because the masses are too stupid to realize they aren't from Disney. DC movies also arguably fit into that camp (I have to explain to my Dad like once a month that Batman or Aquaman or Wonder Woman aren't Marvel characters)

 

I coined the phrase back in 2019, but you can argue that Mickey's Law's impacts go as far back as 2016. I'm assuming Bob Iger was bitter Universal won the studio share in 2015 despite all the hits they had and created this law to spite all the other studios.

[SchumacherFTW]

1 minute ago, Eric the Big Red Dog said:

For Non-Disney titles, anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Disney films can do poorly, but those aren't because of impacts by Mickey's Law. Likewise, the Sony Marvel movies are oftentimes exempt, because the masses are too stupid to realize they aren't from Disney. DC movies also arguably fit into that camp (I have to explain to my Dad like once a month that Batman or Aquaman or Wonder Woman aren't Marvel characters)

 

I coined the phrase back in 2019, but you can argue that Mickey's Law's impacts go as far back as 2016. I'm assuming Bob Iger was bitter Universal won the studio share in 2015 despite all the hits they had and created this law to spite all the other studios.

Ahhhh OK, I get what you're saying now. So I'm the context of Ghostbusters, could be lots of upfront demand but it's not crossing over to the GA in theory? 

[Eric Prime]

1 minute ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Ahhhh OK, I get what you're saying now. So I'm the context of Ghostbusters, could be lots of upfront demand but it's not crossing over to the GA in theory? 

No, more that because it's not a Disney movie or looks like a Disney movie, it is punished to underperform. And while ticket sales were promising, the film is simply doomed to fail, because it doesn't have the Disney castle behind it. It was all just a ruse to make us think Mickey's Law isn't actually real. But Mickey's Law knows how to play some cruel tricks.

 

--------------------------------

 

Okay, I'm just messing with ya. I don't actually think Mickey's Law is a real thing. Just something funny I made up when a bunch of non-Disney tentpoles two summers ago were bombing left and right.  I still think it's worth a good chuckle that some outside force is hurting all the other studios, so I'm just being silly.

 

If you want my real answer, it could very well be that Ghostbusters got upfront demand from the fans and isn't really getting anybody else in. That's the issue that hurt NTTD last month. But a couple of bad days, even a week before release, can be just that. And yeah, every movie has a slowdown in sales or just gets bad days where few sales happen. I'm sure once we get into the ramp-up for release that Afterlife starts picking up in sales and that the last two days were just a fluke, and from a raw previews perspective, it's still gunning for an opening on par with the Feig film, which would still be really good for this, especially because it'll likely be a cheaper film than the Feig title.

[filmlover]

45 minutes ago, Eric the Big Red Dog said:

For Non-Disney titles, anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Disney films can do poorly, but those aren't because of impacts by Mickey's Law. Likewise, the Sony Marvel movies are oftentimes exempt, because the masses are too stupid to realize they aren't from Disney. DC movies also arguably fit into that camp (I have to explain to my Dad like once a month that Batman or Aquaman or Wonder Woman aren't Marvel characters)

 

I coined the phrase back in 2019, but you can argue that Mickey's Law's impacts go as far back as 2016. I'm assuming Bob Iger was bitter Universal won the studio share in 2015 despite all the hits they had and created this law to spite all the other studios.

Universal's probably having the best 2021 or at least tied with Disney (not too many asterisks needed next to them since most of King Mickey's titles were available to watch at home the same day as theaters). Maybe if Ghostbusters had been a Universal property, it would've been immune from potential disappointment too!

 

(I'm referring to the original Ghostbusters Universal Studios attraction that opened when the park did in 1990 and closed six years later to make way for Twister)

[WrathOfHan]

From what I'm seeing, House of Gucci is getting full Dolby showtimes at most locations. Tracking must be really good  

[Tinalera]

10 hours ago, filmlover said:

There's currently 5 movies set to open the entire week of Christmas (Matrix, Sing 2, The King's Man, American Underdog, A Journal for Jordan). Add in Spider-Man, Nightmare Alley, and West Side Story from the two weeks before and the battle for screen space sure isn't going to be an easy one.

Tracking is going to really start getting fun soon. 

[WrathOfHan]

MGM just dropped Gucci and LP tickets. Surprisingly, Gucci is filling up faster than LP is at Lincoln Square. It'll probably hang onto Dolby until WSS is out.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 11/5/2021 at 10:13 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

US showtimes sample 11/5 weekend

 

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D	Dolby	D-Box	XD	RPX
Eternals	3,436	118,603		98,103	20,500	4,339	8,692	2,652	1,168	2,324	1,325
Halloween Kills	2,668	29,970	-27.73%	29,869	101	0	0	101	0	0	0
Dune	2,934	28,855	-46.87%	28,693	162	2	67	93	0	0	0
Antlers	2,529	26,640	-27.94%	26,564	76	0	0	76	0	0	0
Venom 2	2,284	26,277	-21.65%	26,148	129	0	38	91	0	0	0
No Time to Die	2,426	22,913	-23.03%	22,801	112	0	0	112	0	0	0
Last Night in Soho	2,652	20,998	-44.51%	20,954	44	0	0	44	0	0	0
Ron's Gone Wrong	2,149	18,357	-47.02%	18,274	83	0	30	53	0	0	0
My Hero Academia	1,357	14,597	-43.44%	14,510	87	0	0	46	41	0	0
French Dispatch	1,033	12,122	-4.15%	12,122	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Addams Family 2	1,485	12,119	-46.94%	12,067	52	0	0	52	0	0	0
Spencer	840	11,579		11,579	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Red Notice	653	8,655		8,630	25	0	0	25	0	0	0
Sooryavanshi	410	3,512		3,512	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Annaatthe	304	2,288		2,288	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A Mouthful of Air	637	2,184	-78.24%	2,184	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Shang-Chi	324	2,117	-74.17%	2,111	6	0	0	6	0	0	0
The Last Duel	116	724	-85.65%	724	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

 

Bottom three took huge hits in show count.   I didn't have a way to parse out expansion previews for Dispatch this week so that's what causes the drop (in addition to losing previews from last week).  

 

Previews shows

Eternals - 14,155

Spencer - 1,436

Red Notice - 778

 

Future releases show counts

 

T-1 week

Clifford Tuesday - 7,601

Clifford weekend - 19,260 (1,594 TC)

Belfast - 3,960 (326 TC)

 

T-2 weeks previews

Ghostbusters Wednesday - 148

Ghostbusters Thursday - 9,550 (2,316 TC)

US showtime sample 11/12 weekend

 

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D	Dolby	D-Box	XD	RPX
Eternals	3,321	87,384	-26.32%	73,961	13,423	3,554	3,826	2,102	929	1,928	1,084
Clifford	3,134	59,856		59,459	397	0	0	249	148	0	0
Venom 2	2,283	26,811	2.03%	26,657	154	0	29	100	10	0	15
Dune	2,748	26,456	-8.31%	26,330	126	0	37	80	9	0	0
No Time to Die	2,370	22,701	-0.93%	22,612	89	0	0	80	0	0	9
Ron's Gone Wrong	1,999	18,352	-0.03%	18,264	88	0	30	58	0	0	0
Halloween Kills	1,751	13,975	-53.37%	13,938	37	0	0	37	0	0	0
Antlers	1,642	12,629	-52.59%	12,602	27	0	0	27	0	0	0
Spencer	1,077	12,255	5.84%	12,255	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
French Dispatch	1,056	11,060	-8.76%	11,060	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Addams Family 2	1,138	9,472	-21.84%	9,436	36	0	0	36	0	0	0
My Hero Academia	1,007	8,617	-40.97%	8,595	22	0	0	22	0	0	0
Belfast	516	7,577		7,576	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
Red Notice	681	7,533	-12.96%	7,514	19	0	0	19	0	0	0
Last Night in Soho	1,123	6,821	-67.52%	6,821	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C.S. Lewis	339	4,235		4,235	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
tick, tick...Boom!	179	2,061		2,061	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Shang-Chi	258	1,850	-12.61%	1,845	5	0	0	5	0	0	0

 

Really good holds for everything at the top with only one new wide release.  Eternals is only down -16% for Fr-Su.  

 

Future release show counts

 

T-1 week

Ghostbusters (Wed shows) - 148

Ghostbusters (Wed-Sun) - 64,014 (2,826 TC)

King Richard - 18,783 (1,835 TC)

 

T-2 weeks previews

House of Gucci (11/18 shows) - 199

House of Gucci - 2,045 (1,402 TC)

Resident Evil - 2,532 (936 TC)

Encanto - 1,928 (804 TC)

[filmlover]

Long Range Box Office Forecast: ENCANTO, HOUSE OF GUCCI, and RESIDENT EVIL: WELCOME TO RACCOON CITY

Read more: https://t.co/OzmDE6DCrj#Encanto #HouseOfGucci #ResidentEvilWelcometoRaccoonCity #GhostbustersAfterlife #KingRichard #BoxOffice pic.twitter.com/g7TslM9HpA

— Boxoffice Pro (@BoxOffice) November 12, 2021

[Maggie]

47 minutes ago, filmlover said:

HOG seems about right. I predict 10M

[WrathOfHan]

I think Gucci goes up a bit based on early sales but Encanto will stay on the lower end.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Gucci is the rare adult drama this year that also has young appeal with Gaga and the marketing. It opens on Wednesday so the 5day needs to be over 15m which it should?

[filmlover]

FWIW the lower end of their prediction for Encanto's total ($75M) would surpass the $66M of Spies in Disguise (the last animated movie not to be impacted at all by COVID) to become the biggest animated movie since Frozen II. All things considered, wouldn't set off too many alarms.