The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[LPLC]

Ok if Charlie says that it must be huge, I don't realize it. I will revise my forecasts upwards. Let's try $215M OW / $575M total

[ZackM]

2 hours ago, ZackM said:

I don't have it in me right now.  It's too finicky...There was so much tuning in that code.  You know how tricky it can be.

 

I'm bummed.  

Ok, I've decided to stop being so melodramatic and begun rebuilding my scripts.  Hopefully I'll have something usable in a few days.

[Legion Again]

3 hours ago, Eternal Legion said:

I agree with keyser — the endgame comp is better than TROS 👀

Good news folks — we ended up with a better comp than we were expecting to have   

 

Not to give too much extra work for people who are already doing much more than me, but I think a useful stat to incorporate for this one after things settle down in a few days and we switch to T- is probably the rate extrapolated T-. That is to say, if future tickets are same ratio of endgame’s future tickets as the last day (or 2, or 3) have been, how will it comp with endgame final.

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, LPLC said:

Ok if Charlie says that it must be huge, I don't realize it. I will revise my forecasts upwards. Let's try $255M OW / $725M total

 

I like these numbers better  

 

[Porthos]

*checks Wed Dec 22*

 

Welp!  

 

The Matrix Resurrections might have IMAX by contract, but practically every other PLF in the area is going to NWH.

 

*does more checking*

 

Even seeing some IMAX NWH showings on Wed into the night over at Regal Delta Shores (the other FauxIMAX doesn't have showtimes up).

 

If folks were expecting/hoping for a PLF bounce for TMR when it first opens, one might want to adjust those expectations as it doesn't look like it'll get very much PLF penetration on its first couple of days (Tue isn't any better in case they do Tue previews).

Edited November 30, 2021 by Porthos

[LPLC]

3 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

I like these numbers better  

 

Hopefully, but let's not abuse it, it surely won't exceed TFA's opening weekend and the $700M still seems to be elusive.

[charlie Jatinder]

11 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

Closer to Endgame than TFA, right? I just said I suspected as much on Reddit

In layman terms yes, in your pro math geo mean stuff I guess we wait.

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, LPLC said:

Hopefully, but let's not abuse it, it surely won't exceed TFA's opening weekend and the $700M still seems to be elusive.

Buckle up my friend. I'm not saying it for sure will at this juncture, but those numbers are definitely in it's sight. 

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, LPLC said:

it surely won't exceed TFA's opening weekend

👀👀

 

1 minute ago, LPLC said:

700M still seems to be elusive.

👀

 

Spoiler

I mean, yeah, probably.

 

Probably

 

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

In layman terms yes, in your pro math geo mean stuff I guess we wait.

Geomean goal will be lower than arithmetic, so it’s done

[charlie Jatinder]

I am thinking 200+ for now. If it continues to be crazy for next 7 days I can drastically make it 250 range.

[TwoMisfits]

47 minutes ago, Porthos said:

*checks Wed Dec 22*

 

Welp!  

 

The Matrix Resurrections might have IMAX by contract, but practically every other PLF in the area is going to NWH.

 

*does more checking*

 

Even seeing some IMAX NWH showings on Wed into the night over at Regal Delta Shores (the other FauxIMAX doesn't have showtimes up).

 

If folks were expecting/hoping for a PLF bounce for TMR when it first opens, one might want to adjust those expectations as it doesn't look like it'll get very much PLF penetration on its first couple of days (Tue isn't any better in case they do Tue previews).

 

So reality is starting to sync up with what I suggested a few months ago...anything opening this Christmas not named Spidey or Sing 2, which is the alt family option for those with younger folks, should have kicked or expected little room for their movies on screens, and planned accordingly...

[Eric S'ennui]

I'm only halfway done. I don't think I can take this anymore.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, Eric Madrigal said:

I'm only halfway done. I don't think I can take this anymore.

 

Me yday when I ditched lunch in 4-5 hour marathon capacity filling and tracking.

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, Eric Madrigal said:

I'm only halfway done. I don't think I can take this anymore.

 

[cax16]

NWH has sold nearly 1000 tickets for preview night already at my theatre, that’s more then any movies final presale number that I’ve tracked. (except EG)

 

I only have sales for EG after day 3 so I can compare better on Wednesday of this week but EG had sold 1440 seats at that point. 

[Blankments]

Fwiw looking at the main Chicagoland theaters, it looks like the only PLF Spider-Man is losing to Matrix is a Dolby screen. All the imaxes are selling Spider-Man on the 22nd already; in addition to all the Dolby’s besides one

[Legion Again]

21 minutes ago, Blankments said:

Fwiw looking at the main Chicagoland theaters, it looks like the only PLF Spider-Man is losing to Matrix is a Dolby screen. All the imaxes are selling Spider-Man on the 22nd already; in addition to all the Dolby’s besides one

Wise

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

The AMC here (only IMAX theater) has Spiderman with an 815 IMAX showing. Maybe Matrix gets a 4? And they split? Spiderman is in Dolby all day, however

[Legion Again]

11 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

Wise

The reacc is gold

Money is as money does, I didn't force WB to release M4 streaming on NWH's 2nd weekend 🤷‍♂️