The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Cap]

Godzilla - Rocketman - Dark Phoenix - Secret Lives of Pets 2

Thursday Previews

 

Lincoln Square 13
	5.8	5.10	5.13	5.15	5.17	5.20	5.22	5.24	Total	%	+ Sold
Rocketman	122	133	150	160	182	197	205	230	1276	18.03%	25
Godzilla	--	434	567	618	646	695	710	790	2124	37.19%	80
Dark Phoenix	--	--	479	612	694	741	790	826	2034	40.61%	36
Pets 2	--	--	--	--	9	9	9	9	297	3.03%	0

 

• Rocketman and Godzilla: John Wick 3 was at 24% sold on the Friday before its last week of Pre-Sales.  I think Zilla's and RM's percentages are solid / right on track for LS.  They had a decent boost over the last two days.  I will be interested to see how many screens they end up with once the final scedules set.  Both films are PLF heavy.  229/230 are Dolby for RM; 786/790 are IMAX for Zilla.
   
• Dark Phoenix:  6PM IMAX Fan Event 456/480.  Remove that screening and Dark Phoenix's at 370/1554 (23.81%)

 

Southern Maine Cinemagic
	5.8	5.10	5.13	5.15	5.17	5.20	5.22	5.24	Total	%	+ Sold
Rocketman	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	1160	0.34%	0
Godzilla	--	--	15	22	26	34	40	47	1316	3.57%	7
Dark Phoenix	--	--	0	2	2	3	3	3	962	0.31%	0

 

• Pets still hasn't sold anything at Cinemagic, so I'm not going to officially list it until next Monday. 

 

ETA:

 

• I MIGHT add Ma starting on Monday because Octavia deserves that respect.  I will see.  I will at least do a Final Count on Thursday for future comps.
• The best news of the day is I cleaned up my tracking spreadsheet/file, and it's beautiful.

 

45 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

1

36 minutes ago, Porthos said:

There's a reason why I use JW:FK as the measuring stick for walkup movies, locally.

Cause it almost created a Tracking Thread Civil War? 

Edited May 25, 2019 by captainwondyful

[Mulder]

2 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

Godzilla - Rocketman - Dark Phoenix - Secret Lives of Pets 2

Thursday Previews

 

Lincoln Square 13
	5.8	5.10	5.13	5.15	5.17	5.20	5.22	5.24	Total	%	+ Sold
Rocketman	122	133	150	160	182	197	205	230	1276	18.03%	25
Godzilla	--	434	567	618	646	695	710	790	2124	37.19%	80
Dark Phoenix	--	--	479	612	694	741	790	826	2034	40.61%	36
Pets 2	--	--	--	--	9	9	9	9	297	3.03%	0

 

• Rocketman and Godzilla: John Wick 3 was at 24% sold on the Friday before its last week of Pre-Sales.  I think Zilla's and RM's percentages are solid right on track for LS,  They had a decent boost over the last two days.  I will be interested to see how many screens they end up with once the final scedules set.  Both films are PLF heavy.  229/230 are Dolby for RM; 786/790 are IMAX for Zilla.
   
• Dark Phoenix:  6PM IMAX Fan Event 456/480.  Remove that screening and Dark Phoenix's at 370/1554 (23.81%)

 

Southern Maine Cinemagic
	5.8	5.10	5.13	5.15	5.17	5.20	5.22	5.24	Total	%	+ Sold
Rocketman	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	1160	0.34%	0
Godzilla	--	--	15	22	26	34	40	47	1316	3.57%	7
Dark Phoenix	--	--	0	2	2	3	3	3	962	0.31%	0

 

• Pets still hasn't sold anything at Cinemagic, so I'm not going to officially list it until next Monday. 

 

ETA:

 

• I MIGHT add Ma starting on Monday because Octavia deserves that respect.  I will see.  I will at least do a Final Count on Thursday for future comps.
• The bests news of the day is I cleaned up my tracking spreadsheet/file, and it's beautiful.

 

Cause it almost created a Tracking Thread Civil War? 

Out of likes but thanks! Hoping KoTM can keep this general momentum. 

[Porthos]

17 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

Cause it almost created a Tracking Thread Civil War? 

The funny thing was, it was a fairly civil discussion for most of the time, from what I remember.

 

Maybe I just had a different perspective of it all, but I think most of the discussion was "why isn't this doing better" and "no, really, this SHOULD be doing better why isn't it" (with of course plenty of folks taking the opposite side).  

 

It did start to drift into mocking in the week just before release (i.e. about ten days out or so) when even the tracking forecasters pointed to a poor OW.

 

And then all of us doing the mocking (*cough* *gulp* *cough*)  got MASSIVE amounts of egg on our faces when it started to roar three/four days out.

 

Could also be rose colored glasses here.  But I don't recall that many people getting upset in here.  Folks passionately arguing their case?  Sure.  But all in all, I think we handled it pretty well.

 

...

 

Maybe I should tag Brainbug here and see if his recollection matches mine.  I suspect it might not.  

Edited May 25, 2019 by Porthos

[Brainbug]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

The funny thing was, it was a fairly civil discussion for most of the time, from what I remember.

 

Maybe I just had a different perspective of it all, but I think most of the discussion was "why isn't this doing better" and "no, really, this SHOULD be doing better why isn't it" (with of course plenty of folks taking the opposite side).  

 

It did start to drift into mocking in the week just before release (i.e. about ten days out or so) when even the tracking forecasters pointed to a poor OW.

 

And then all of us doing the mocking (*cough* *gulp* *cough*)  got MASSIVE amounts of egg on our faces when it started to roar three/four days out.

 

Could also be rose colored glasses here.  But I don't recall that many people getting upset in here.  Folks passionately arguing their case?  Sure.  But all in all, I think we handled it pretty well.

 

...

 

Maybe I should tag Brainbug here and see if his recollection matches mine.  I suspect it might not.  

 

I remember many posters beeing quite civil about thinking FK would underperform, but there were also some (cough MovieMan cough) who were outright mocking FK, no matter how much I and some others argued that walk-ups for it will be massive.

 

You can imagine the smug face of mine when the numbers rolled in.

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

You can imagine the smug face of mine when the numbers rolled in.

I have to imagine it was something like this:

 

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

I have to imagine it was something like this:

 

Why do you do this when I'm out of reactions. 😟

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I have to imagine it was something like this:

 

 

Yes.

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Why do you do this when I'm out of reactions. 😟

Post will still be there in the morning.

[Mulder]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Post will still be there in the morning.

...True.

[Cooper Legion]

Randomly decided to check in on FFH Fandango sales vs CM in this T-45 day lull period. FRH looks a lot weaker — but, I think the 1000 quarter hour cap has been getting hit a lot more regularly this May than it was in Jan. So... think it might be on pretty negligible value until we get close enough to see the TWThFSS cumulative sales breakdown.

[cdsacken]

Saturday is really strong for Aladdin locally here. Almost every theater is 90% or greater sold out for morning shows until afternoon.

 

Pretty damn impressive for real 24 Friday. I think Saturday will probably increase and we might actually see 100+ 4 day. So much better than 70-75 forecast.

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

13 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Saturday is really strong for Aladdin locally here. Almost every theater is 90% or greater sold out for morning shows until afternoon.

 

Pretty damn impressive for real 24 Friday. I think Saturday will probably increase and we might actually see 100+ 4 day. So much better than 70-75 forecast.

 

I don't like the word "locked"...but I'm pretty sure 100+ 4-day is pretty close to that. 110 seems pretty likely as well since this will play better to families than stuff like Solo or POTC.

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

Randomly decided to check in on FFH Fandango sales vs CM in this T-45 day lull period. FRH looks a lot weaker — but, I think the 1000 quarter hour cap has been getting hit a lot more regularly this May than it was in Jan. So... think it might be on pretty negligible value until we get close enough to see the TWThFSS cumulative sales breakdown.

Looking through CM's sales breakdown on the akvalley spreadsheet, a very high fraction of its early sales went to Thursday previews. FFH only has midnights, so presumably far fewer showings/seats available, and it's opening day is on a weekday, which would also depress sales. FFH's opening is gonna be really annoying to comp across the board.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Aladdin 4-Day O/U Endgame 1st Sat? 

[cdsacken]

6 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Aladdin 4-Day O/U Endgame 1st Sat? 

How about Aladdin 4day double Detective Pikachu OW

Edited May 25, 2019 by cdsacken

[Eric Prime]

Took a bit of a break, but I'm back.

 

Movie/Date

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Pets 2 Early	903	1,004	1,542	2,491	1,934
	5 days	4 days	3 days	2 days	1 day
Godzilla	1,217	1,187	1,400	1,125	1,098
	11 days	10 days	9 days	8 days	7 days
Secret Life of Pets 2	124	121	146	112	87
	18 days	17 days	16 days	15 days	14 days
Dark Phoenix	392	347	386	287	238
	18 days	17 days	16 days	15 days	14 days
Spider-Man FFH	416	364	391	237	211
	43 days	42 days	41 days	40 days	39 days

 

 

Pets 2 Early

Day 7-1

29% of Dragon 3 Early Access (723K)

31% of Shazam Early Access (1M)

 

Day 10-1

20% of Shazam Early Access (661K)

29% of Dragon 3 Early Access (715K)

 

Day 14-1

29% of Dragon 3 Early Access (716K)

 

First off, LOL at Dragon 3 all being 29%. Second, there's no beating around the bush. This is awful for Pets, even if it's just the early Fandango shows. Especially considering you could only get these tickets through Fandango.

 

Pets 2 Regular

Day 20-14

75% of Grinch (50.8M)

178% of Hotel 3 (78.5M)

 

Day 25-14

70% of Grinch (47.4M)

220% of Hotel 3 (97M)

 

This is also bad too, but at least it has the excuse of the Fandango shows deflating the regular movie's presales.

 

Day 20-14

12% of Captain Marvel (18.2M)

 

Day 25-14

23% of Captain Marvel (35.1M)

 

So this seems bad, but it's important to recognize CM is kind of on a different level of hype compared to DP, so it's not the best comparison. I'll try to look into the archives of Aquaman and Venom later.

 

 

I'm also on a bit of a time crunch, so I won't do Godzilla just yet. Just know the past couple of days have been on par with John Wick 3. Do with that what you will. I'll also look into the archives of Fallen Kingdom later

[filmlover]

I honestly won't be shocked if The Secret Life of Pets 2 drops by more than half from its predecessor. It just feels like a no1curr in comparison to the trio of Disney blockbusters this summer.

Edited May 25, 2019 by filmlover

[Boxofficerules]

Poor Ma

[Porthos]

So, um...

 

Huh.

 

There's gonna be some sellouts for Fandango Early Access for SLOP2 locally in Sacto.  Using my personal "six seats or fewer left" metric at least.

 

No it's not showing on the bigger screens in many places.  Still...

[Mulder]

15 hours ago, Mulder said:

Final count of today, just Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-174 (+10), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 3 Regular) Final week

Dark Phoenix-74 (+1), 6 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

 

I like that KoTM doubled it's sales from yesterday, which while 10 tickets sold isn't some kind of huge number if the growth continues on that path I'll be very pleased. 26 tickets away from passing 200. In total today Godzilla sold 10 tickets and Dark Phoenix sold 1.

First count of today, just Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-179 (+6), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 3 Regular) Final week

Dark Phoenix-77 (+3), 6 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

 

Hoping KoTM can keep it's momentum going and hit 15 tickets sold today.