The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

Took a quick look at Dark Phoenix pre-sales across the Sacramento region just now.

 

 

 

My best comps are currently pointing to 4m+ in previews. My CBM comps... aren't. 

 

[Porthos]

Didn't keep the quick look as a spreadsheet so I can't go down and dirty on adj's or anything like that.  But as of right now, Dark Phoenix has sold 457 tickets region wide.

 

At T-11 (Sat Night checks) I had:

May Movies:

KotM at       762 seats sold.

Aladdin at   901 seats sold. (3.55m)

Pika Pika at 618 seats sold. (4.21m - matinee and few PLF)

 

Other comps:

FB2 at        1772 seats sold. (2.35m - FB2 over-performed in Sacto)

JW:FK at     1606 seats sold. (4.35m)

Solo at       3404 seats sold. (1.89m - SW is notoriously pre-sale heavy)

 

Recent CBMs (don't have AM&tW or Venom that far out - never checked Aquaman) :

EG at       18601 seats sold. (1.47m)

CM at        4085 seats sold. (2.32m)

DP2 at       2808 seats sold. (3.02m - DP2 did not have 3D)

IW at         7873 seats sold. (2.26m)

 

Everything FB2 and before is a little off due to extra sources of tracking, but that'd just lower the comp, not raise it, as there were a handful of tickets sold at the theater that now has reserved seating.

 

=====

 

Just eyeballing it, the Fan Event showings locally are not doing well.  At all.  The TrueIMAX theater in town has one and it's sold 34/376 tickets (not including wheel chair assist). The other two ONFEs in the region have sold 4 (out of 199) and 19 (out of 207) tickets respectively.

 

As for regular showings, one at Century Arden is doing very well as is another at Century Blue Oaks.  But aside from that it's scattered sales everywhere else.

Edited May 26, 2019 by Porthos

[Stewart]

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Didn't keep the quick look as a spreadsheet so I can't go down and dirty on adj's or anything like that.  But as of right now, Dark Phoenix has sold 457 tickets region wide.

 

At T-11 (Sat Night checks) I had:

May Movies:

KotM at       762 seats sold.

Aladdin at   901 seats sold. (3.55m)

Pika Pika at 618 seats sold. (4.21m - matinee and few PLF)

 

Other comps:

FB2 at        1772 seats sold. (2.35m - FB2 over-performed in Sacto)

JW:FK at     1606 seats sold. (4.35m)

Solo at       3404 seats sold. (1.89m - SW is notoriously pre-sale heavy)

 

Recent CBMs (don't have AM&tW or Venom that far out - never checked Aquaman) :

EG at       18601 seats sold. (1.47m)

CM at        4085 seats sold. (2.32m)

DP2 at       2808 seats sold. (3.02m - DP2 did not have 3D)

IW at         7873 seats sold. (2.26m)

 

Everything FB2 and before is a little off due to extra sources of tracking, but that'd just lower the comp, not raise it, as there were a handful of tickets sold at the theater that now has reserved seating.

 

=====

 

Just eyeballing it, the Fan Event showings locally are not doing well.  At all.  The TrueIMAX theater in town has one and it's sold 34/376 tickets (not including wheel chair assist). The other two ONFEs in the region have sold 4 (out of 199) and 19 (out of 207) tickets respectively.

 

As for regular showings, one at Century Arden is doing very well as is another at Century Blue Oaks.  But aside from that it's scattered sales everywhere else.

So you official prediction range is probably something like $3.0m ± 0.3m for previews at the moment then?

 

Wouldn't that point to an OW of $40m maybe? Below Pro's 50m and way below all X-Men before it 😕 Given Apocalypse's legs, that means under 100m might happen - that would not be good.

 

Let's hope it's just a blip due to how many movies are out, would be a shame for X-Men to finish with a disaster...

[Menor the Destroyer]

Dark Phoenix's Fandango presales from what I remember are below Far From Home for each day...a movie that is over a month out vs one opening in two weeks. Yikes.

[Mulder]

Phoenix is doing...ok at my theater. The thing is most of it's sales (60%) are for the fan screening....

[Stewart]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

Dark Phoenix's Fandango presales from what I remember are below Far From Home for each day...a movie that is over a month out vs one opening in two weeks. Yikes.

 

3 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Movie/Date

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Dark Phoenix	392	347	386	287	238	185
	18 days	17 days	16 days	15 days	14 days	13 days
Spider-Man FFH	416	364	391	237	211	173
	43 days	42 days	41 days	40 days	39 days	38 days

 

As per Eric, in the last 6 days FFH beat DP on 3 of them, and not far behind on the others... 

 

Given they're releasing 25 days apart, that truly is atrocious isn't it  

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, Stewart said:

So you official prediction range is probably something like $3.0m ± 0.3m for previews at the moment then?

 

Wouldn't that point to an OW of $40m maybe? Below Pro's 50m and way below all X-Men before it 😕 Given Apocalypse's legs, that means under 100m might happen - that would not be good.

 

Let's hope it's just a blip due to how many movies are out, would be a shame for X-Men to finish with a disaster...

Don't think I'd give a prediction range for a couple of reasons.  One look at one day without a spreadsheet to give adj's doesn't give me enough info to really judge.

 

Could just be that most folks are going to stay away and only show up at the very last second.

 

Will say, IF Sacto is indicative, I'd bet the under on the OW out there.  Especially since Sacto does seem to like CBMs from what I've seen.

 

16 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Phoenix is doing...ok at my theater. The thing is most of it's sales (60%) are for the fan screening....

Yeah, I remember you and @captainwondyful commenting on how well it's doing at the ONFE's at your places.  That's one reason why I mentioned it, in fact.  Just surprised to see the large difference here.

Can't even fully blame the IMAX upcharge (which is keeping folks away from the Regal's) as the TrueIMAX theater recently lowered its ticket prices to the 12 dollar range.  Aside from that, folks locally seem to be looking at the Regal IMAX ticket price of $19 [before fees, natch] and going, "Nah, I'm good, fam."

Edited May 26, 2019 by Porthos

[filmlover]

I feel like Dark Phoenix should've opened on either of its two original spots (early November last year of Valentine's Day/President's Day weekend this year) to really capitalize on whatever its highest potential. Now it feels like everybody has just moved on to what the inevitable MCU reboot that's a few years away is gonna look like.

[Tinalera]

Is it weird i thought it was coming out later like august? It surprised me when i saw it out in two weeks. I probably got it confused witb New Mutants and its constant pushing back.

 

Ive seen very little in the way of promo for phoenix, probably part of my confusion.

 

I wonder since jan: Aquaman, captain marvel, shazam, avengers endgame, dark phoenix, spiderman far from home. Im NOT saying fatigue but her overabundance of hero films in short amount of time. Many spent money on aqua, cm, endgame, and prolly far from home will be huge. Maybe part of shazam and whats looking like dark phoenix, maybe theres only so much hero movie money to go around.

 

Just trying to figure why phoenix may have the low numbers here ( i mean just another angle to look at)

[Mulder]

Just now, Tinalera said:

Is it weird i thought it was coming out later like august? It surprised me when i saw it out in two weeks. I probably got it confused witb New Mutants and its constant pushing back.

 

Ive seen very little in the way of promo for phoenix, probably part of my confusion.

 

I wonder since jan: Aquaman, captain marvel, shazam, avengers endgame, dark phoenix, spiderman far from home. Im NOT saying fatigue but her overabundance of hero films in short amount of time. Many spent money on aqua, cm, endgame, and prolly far from home will be huge. Maybe part of shazam and whats looking like dark phoenix, maybe theres only so much hero movie money to go around.

 

Just trying to figure why phoenix may have the low numbers here ( i mean just another angle to look at)

Dark Phoenix'll suffer because it's the conclusion of an era for X-Men that already felt like it ended with Logan. Nobody cares too much anymore besides for some diehards.

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Dark Phoenix'll suffer because it's the conclusion of an era for X-Men that already felt like it ended with Logan. Nobody cares too much anymore besides for some diehards.

Nah. the new generation x-men(Fass, Mcavoy etc) were not in Logan. So this is a finale for those characters. But the problem is franchise have been in downward spiral with Apocalypse and this one has very few hooks. its going to have meh reviews and so I am thinking 45/100m run. If it opens below 45m it could miss 100m. OS will probably end up around 300m. So will need Disney+ revenue to break even.

Edited May 26, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Mulder]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

Nah. the new generation x-men(Fass, Mcavoy etc) were not in Logan. So this is a finale for those characters. But the problem is franchise have been in downward spiral with Apocalypse and this one has very few hooks. its going to have meh reviews and so I am thinking 45/100m run. If it opens below 45m it could miss 100m. OS will probably end up around 300m. So will need Disney+ revenue to break even.

The thing is Logan felt like a finale for the franchise as a whole, including the First Class-versions of the characters. Apocalypse being as mediocre as it was didn't help either.

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Dark Phoenix'll suffer because it's the conclusion of an era for X-Men that already felt like it ended with Logan. Nobody cares too much anymore besides for some diehards.

That and just the general bad buzz surrounding both Dark Phoenix and New Mutants (see my response below):

6 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Is it weird i thought it was coming out later like august? It surprised me when i saw it out in two weeks. I probably got it confused witb New Mutants and its constant pushing back.

Wouldn't be surprised at all to see if folks were conflating the buzz around both films into just a general sense of malaise around Fox Marvel movies (non-Deadpool edition). The delays on both films certainly haven't helped matters.

 

===

For what it's worth, which prob isn't much, advertising for Dark Phoenix has started to pop up on the sports channels I watch, so that's something I guess.

Edited May 26, 2019 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Mulder said:

The thing is Logan felt like a finale for the franchise as a whole, including the First Class-versions of the characters. Apocalypse being as mediocre as it was didn't help either.

how is that possible when none of those characters were there?

[Mulder]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

how is that possible when none of those characters were there?

Professor X was in Logan and Magneto's finale honestly was DoFP. His stuff in Apocalypse and now here both feel like the writers of the franchise have no idea where to take Magneto as a character. Also Hugh Jackman's Wolverine has always, always been the face of the Fox X-Men. He was in all three First Class movies before this even.

[keysersoze123]

Anyway I am disappointed by reaction to Zilla in China. Its not going to break out as much as what was expected. Probably finishing around Kong numbers would be great. In a way that is good for Dark Phoenix in china. Apocalypse faced one of the biggest Hollywood openers(Warcraft) 5 days into its run and still did great. So these characters have some hook and even with a drop I am thinking 500m yuan at minimum in China. @Olive or @Gavin Feng would know better.

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Mulder said:

Professor X was in Logan and Magneto's finale honestly was DoFP. His stuff in Apocalypse and now here both feel like the writers of the franchise have no idea where to take Magneto as a character. Also Hugh Jackman's Wolverine has always, always been the face of the Fox X-Men. He was in all three First Class movies before this even.

I am not talking those. New guys Mcavoy and Fassbender and Lawrence etc were not there. 1st generation X-Men had a tiny role in DOFP except Wolverine. It was still mostly about new characters. This is wrap for those characters. I only wish Fox had picked better director to replace Singer.

[Legion Again]

Dark Phoenix is releasing into a dead continuity, with a bunch of characters that X-men fans know will be rebooted in a handful of years. If it does small numbers I don’t think anyone will be too surprised about it.

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am not talking those. New guys Mcavoy and Fassbender and Lawrence etc were not there. 1st generation X-Men had a tiny role in DOFP except Wolverine. It was still mostly about new characters. This is wrap for those characters. I only wish Fox had picked better director to replace Singer.

Nobody really cares about that distinction, Apocalypse sucked all the air out of that part of the continuity. Not to mention they spoiled what happens to Jennifer Lawrence's Mystique in the marketing.

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Anyway I am disappointed by reaction to Zilla in China. Its not going to break out as much as what was expected. Probably finishing around Kong numbers would be great. In a way that is good for Dark Phoenix in china. Apocalypse faced one of the biggest Hollywood openers(Warcraft) 5 days into its run and still did great. So these characters have some hook and even with a drop I am thinking 500m yuan at minimum in China. @Olive or @Gavin Feng would know better.

Believe or not but the China presales are very weak for Phoenix.