The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[XXR vs XXR]

I can't wait for TLK numbers to start. Before the year began, I said TLK would be the biggest film of the year domestically and worldwide and would surpass Titanic globally. Now that Endgame has surpassed all expectations, I'm not holding my breath for the former but still believe it's knocking Titanic down another peg.

In fact, TLK > Last 4 Disney Live Action Remakes Combined! 

[TLK]

TLK's official trailer is pretty underwhelming and shows that it is just a scene by scene remake. It can make $200 million on OW based on the hype it has generated but I think it will fall short.

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, TLK said:

TLK's official trailer is pretty underwhelming and shows that it is just a scene by scene remake. It can make $200 million on OW based on the hype it has generated but I think it will fall short.

It's not a shot by shot remake. They've already confirmed 4 new songs for it. Idk why people continue to believe this lolol

[Stewart]

5 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

It's not a shot by shot remake. They've already confirmed 4 new songs for it. Idk why people continue to believe this lolol

Also the original is only 88 minutes with credits. Maybe 82 without. 

 

No way this comes in under 100 mins, expecting more like Aladdin of ~2 hours + credits. It's just standard now.

[TLK]

8 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

It's not a shot by shot remake. They've already confirmed 4 new songs for it. Idk why people continue to believe this lolol

Maybe because practically every shot in the new trailer was also in the old movie.

[cdsacken]

13 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

It's not a shot by shot remake. They've already confirmed 4 new songs for it. Idk why people continue to believe this lolol

Because it looks creepy and weird. Animals singing but looking like normal animals. Lion King is a monster so 200 is easy to believe but I can understand if people don't like it is well. Lack of expression absolutely kills it for me.

 

I don't have much desire to watch a musical version of nature channel but maybe others will dig that. I expect it to open well and I expect to dislike it despite loving the original.

Edited May 24, 2019 by cdsacken

[cdsacken]

7 minutes ago, TLK said:

Maybe because practically every shot in the new trailer was also in the old movie.

It's a safe way to build up hype. They have done it the best way possible and it will kill it. However I imagine, I just can't wait to be King and Hakuna Matata will be horrible. Rafiki will be the MVP and Simba climbing the the top to take his place will be amazing. I'm just so worried about the scenes that require real emotion. Body language won't be enough.

[Tinalera]

Soooo deadline now saying 80 mil for 3 day 95 for 4 for aladdin. 

 

Under 100 mil for 4 days including thursday cant be what disney was hoping for.

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Soooo deadline now saying 80 mil for 3 day 95 for 4 for aladdin. 

 

Under 100 mil for 4 days including thursday cant be what disney was hoping for.

Variety is higher, FWIW.  Also, Early Deadline Predictions are notorious around here for a reason.

[Legion Again]

On 5/23/2019 at 5:18 PM, Thanos Legion said:

17 PT 5/23/19 (End of Thurs)  

1	52.5%	Aladdin
2	13.9%	John Wick:Chapter 3 - Parabellum
3	11.7%	Avengers: Endgame
4	6.8%	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
5	2.4%    Brightburn

 

First non-Endgame movie to comprise a majority in a looooong time.  MT continues to look notably stronger for it than Pika or Wick.  

 

3 big holdovers yesterday vs today % of non-Aladdin sales:

Wick 35-> 29.3%

Endgame 20->24.6%

Pika 14.5->14.3%

17 PT 5/24/19 (End of Fri)  

1	56.7%	Aladdin
2	11.8%	John Wick:Chapter 3 - Parabellum
3	10.6%	Avengers: Endgame
4	6.6%	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
5	2.5%    Booksmart

 

3 big holdovers yesterday vs today % of non-Aladdin sales:

Wick  29.3-> 27.25% 

Endgame 24.6-> 24.5%

Pika 14.3-> 15.25%   

 

Holdover movement consistent with what you’d predict just from the basic kid vs adult composition.  

 

*A previous version of this post displayed Brightburn instead of Booksmart in 5th place. That was a copy paste error and has been corrected.

Edited May 25, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[McClintonforThree]

 

 

 

 

3

On 5/22/2019 at 10:13 PM, McClintonforThree said:

Only Thursdays

Orange Park AMC

Aladdin - 220 (+30), 12 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 1 3D, 6 Regular, 1 Fan Event)

Godzilla KOTM - 141 (+2), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 1 Dolby, 2 3D, 2 Regular)

Rocketman - 33 (+4), 3 screenings (1 Dolby, 2 Regular)

SLOP2 - 1 (0), 2 screenings (2 Regular)

Dark Phoenix - 100 (+4), 8 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 2 3D, 2 Regular, 1 Fan Event)

 

Aladdin got another good haul, but is still behind JW3 but a good 42 tickets at the same point last week. Godzilla had a slow day but is still comfortably ahead of Aladdin at this point last week. Rocketman and Dark Phoenix both got a few tickets, with Dark Phoenix getting over 100 real quick. The fan screening is what's really pushing up sales. We'll see if it keeps it up.

 

Regency AMC

Aladdin - 368 (+47), 13 screenings (+2 3D, +3 Regular) (2 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 4 3D, 5 Regular)

Godzilla KOTM - 172 (+15), 10 screenings (3 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 2 3D, 3 Regular)

Rocketman - 23 (+2), 3 screenings (1 Dolby, 2 Regular)

SLOP2 - 5 (0), 5 screenings (2 3D, 3 Regular)

Dark Phoenix - 136 (+7), 8 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 2 3D, 2 Regular, 1 Fan Event)

 

Aladdin had another big day but is still behind JW3 by 24. Godzilla had a monster day about to head into its final week and is ahead of Aladdin in presales by a decent amount. I don't even know why I'm following Rocketman and SLOP2. lol. Dark Phoenix had another good day and is ahead of Godzilla at this point in its presales. Although, the fan screening filled up massively on Xmen Day so that might be a factor. 

 

Epic Theatres at Oakleaf

Aladdin - 120 (+29), 5 screenings (2 Epic XL, 1 3D, 2 Regular)

Godzilla KOTM - 26 (+7), 3 screenings (3 Epic XL)

Rocketman - 0 (0), 2 screenings (2 Regular)

SLOP2 - 4 (0), 3 screenings (3 Regular)

Dark Phoenix - 0 (0), 2 screenings (2 Regular)

 

Aladdin has another good day while Godzilla had a great day considering this theater's tendency to not get any presales before the week of.

 

NewVision 12 at Fleming Island

Aladdin - 49 (+12) , 4 screenings (2 3D, 2 Regular)

Godzilla KOTM - 4 (0) , 3 screenings (3 Regular)

Rocketman - 0 (0), 0 screenings

SLOP2 - 0 (0), 0 screenings

Dark Phoenix - 1 (0), 2 screenings (2 Regular)

 

So overall I'm definitely worried about Aladdin. It's preselling less than JW3 and given that the Disney remakes are usually light on walkups, memorial weekends bad reputation, the general meh reviews, and the terrible marketing... my hopes are less than high. Godzilla, on the other hand, is doing fantastic. Hopefully the reviews stay as crazy good as they've been and the monster movie walkup factor takes the film to a giant opening. Dark Phoenix is currently kicking ass and taking names, but the fan screenings that filled up on XMen Day are really packing most of its bite. We'll see if it keeps up the good sales. Rocketman is very very meh and SLOP2 is still a presale corpse. Don't know what to make of those.

Sorry I didn't give out numbers yesterday. I was too tired. Lol. I'll add some theaters to make up for it though. Keep in mind these numbers are over 2 days instead of one.

 

Only Thursdays

Orange Park AMC

Godzilla KOTM - 150 (+9), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 1 Dolby, 2 3D, 2 Regular)

Rocketman - 41 (+8), 3 screenings (1 Dolby, 2 Regular)

SLOP2 - 1 (0), 2 screenings (2 Regular)

Dark Phoenix - 103 (+3), 8 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 2 3D, 2 Regular, 1 Fan Event)

 

Disappointed that Godzilla seems to have really slowed down at the beginning of its final week. Still ahead of Aladdin, but only by 12 tickets. To compare with Godzilla's 9 tickets, Aladdin got 26 tickets on these 2 days last week. They better release that embargo soon or I fear for opening weekend.

 

Regency AMC

Godzilla KOTM - 203 (+31), 10 screenings (3 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 2 3D, 3 Regular)

Rocketman - 26 (+3), 3 screenings (1 Dolby, 2 Regular)

SLOP2 - 8 (+3), 5 screenings (2 3D, 3 Regular)

Dark Phoenix - 150 (+14), 8 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 2 3D, 2 Regular, 1 Fan Event)

 

Godzilla had an ok couple of days at Regency but now only leads Aladdin by 1 ticket. Aladdin had 41 tickets sold over these last couple of days compared to KOTMs 31. Dark Phoenix seems to be selling really well which puzzles me.

 

Epic Theatres at Oakleaf

Godzilla KOTM - 26 (0), 3 screenings (3 Epic XL)

Rocketman - 0 (0), 2 screenings (2 Regular)

SLOP2 - 4 (0), 3 screenings (3 Regular)

Dark Phoenix - 0 (0), 2 screenings (2 Regular)

 

Literally no tickets sold today. Wow.

 

NewVision 12 at Fleming Island

Godzilla KOTM - 4 (0) , 3 screenings (3 Regular)

Rocketman - 0 (0), 0 screenings

SLOP2 - 0 (0), 0 screenings

Dark Phoenix - 1 (0), 2 screenings (2 Regular)

 

None here either.

 

Avenues Regal Cinemas

Godzilla KOTM - 40, 5 screenings (2 3D, 3 Regular)

Rocketman - 10, 2 screenings (2 Regular)

SLOP2 - 16, 5 screenings (1 RPX 2D, 2 3D, 2 Regular)

Dark Phoenix - 33, 7 screenings (2 4DX 3D, 1 RPX 2D, 2 3D, 2 Regular)

 

What a strange theater.

 

Cinemark Tinseltown

Godzilla KOTM - 130, 6 screenings (1 3D, 3 XD, 2 Regular)

Rocketman - 11, 3 screenings (3 Regular)

SLOP2 - 16, 3 screenings (3 Regular)

Dark Phoenix - 30, 4 screenings (2 3D, 2 Regular)

 

And that's it. Every other theater in the greater Jacksonville area either doesn't have reserved seating or they do but only sell them the week of.

[Mulder]

10 hours ago, Mulder said:

First count of today, just Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-169 (+5), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 3 Regular) Final week

Dark Phoenix-73, 6 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

Final count of today, just Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-174 (+10), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 3 Regular) Final week

Dark Phoenix-74 (+1), 6 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

 

I like that KoTM doubled it's sales from yesterday, which while 10 tickets sold isn't some kind of huge number if the growth continues on that path I'll be very pleased. 26 tickets away from passing 200. In total today Godzilla sold 10 tickets and Dark Phoenix sold 1.

[Mulder]

15 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Final count of today, just Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-174 (+10), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 3 Regular) Final week

Dark Phoenix-74 (+1), 6 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

 

I like that KoTM doubled it's sales from yesterday, which while 10 tickets sold isn't some kind of huge number if the growth continues on that path I'll be very pleased. 26 tickets away from passing 200. In total today Godzilla sold 10 tickets and Dark Phoenix sold 1.

 

On 5/18/2019 at 12:22 AM, Mulder said:

Final count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-120 (+6), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 2 Regular)

Aladdin-101 (+4), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening) Final week

Dark Phoenix-60 (+5), 6 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

 

Not great for Aladdin, there's still a showing for it with no tickets sold. I'm honestly not seeing this big growth a lot of people are. Maybe it's just my theater being weird but.....  Good for KoTM and DP though. 

 

On 5/11/2019 at 12:04 AM, Mulder said:

Final count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-56 (+9), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 2 Regular), First Day

Aladdin-81 (+12), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

John Wick-109 (+6), 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular), Final week

 

Everything did really good today. KoTM literally out opened Aladdin by more then double it's number. Not all bad for Aladdin though as it finally got a massive sales boost today after being dead quiet the past few days. John Wick also did really well, hoping to see a bump sooner rather then later. In total today KoTM sold a great 56 tickets, Aladdin sold 12, and John Wick sold 6.

 

On 5/4/2019 at 12:23 AM, Mulder said:

Final count was busy today so didn't have time for a mid-day, just Thursdays-

Aladdin-58 (+3), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

Detective Pikachu-117 (+4), 6 screenings (3 3D, 3 Regular) Final Week

John Wick-75 (+9), 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular)

 

In total today Aladdin sold 3 tickets, PikaPika sold 4 and John Wick had another insane day selling 9 tickets. I gotta be honest PikaPika not picking up as much as I figured it would, Aladdin seems...fine I guess. John Wick though holy fuck.

KoTM's final friday is...very very good. While Aladdin obviously underperformed at my theater in comparison to the rest of America, it being above Wick, Pikachu, and Aladdin's are good signs.

[Cap]

 

 

1

4 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

It's not a shot by shot remake. They've already confirmed 4 new songs for it. Idk why people continue to believe this lolol

Who the hell wants new songs?  I want John Oliver to sing "I Can't Wait to be King" and Beyoncé to sing the rest.  "New Music" is not a selling point.  You can not do a shot-for-shot remake and still keep the music, which I can not stress enough, is the biggest selling point of the movie because you cast BEYONCÉ.

[Porthos]

King of the Monsters Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	98	12654	13740	7.90%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      78

 

IMO, the best comp of movies I have tracked will be Fallen Kingdom.  I also have comps with the Aladdin (still in pre-sales) and Detective Pikachu as something as a compare/contrast with current May movies.  They may not be as good comps, being in different genres.

 

Unadjusted Comps

1.0605x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 6 days before release. 

0.8612x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 6 days before release.

 

T-6:

Pika         82 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/66 showings   |  6440/7464 seats left    | 13.72% sold]

Aladdin   86 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/74 showings   |  9457/10718 seats left  | 11.77% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

.4756x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 6 days before release.       

PRE-SALES NOTE: JW2 had 22 days of pre-sales while KotM had 20.  Also some theaters had KotM tickets on sale for a few days before they were officially announced to the public for sale. 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

T-6:

JW2               95 tickets sold [0 sellouts/111 showings |   9177/11263 seats left   |  18.52% sold]

KotM (JW)      75 tickets sold [0 sellouts/98 showings   | 11180/12172 seats left   |    8.15% sold]

KotM (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

[Mulder]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

King of the Monsters Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	98	12654	13740	7.90%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      78

 

IMO, the best comp of movies I have tracked will be Fallen Kingdom.  I also have comps with the Aladdin (still in pre-sales) and Detective Pikachu as something as a compare/contrast with current May movies.  They may not be as good comps, being in different genres.

 

Unadjusted Comps

1.0605x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 6 days before release. 

0.8612x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 6 days before release.

 

T-6:

Pika         82 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/66 showings   |  6440/7464 seats left    | 13.72% sold]

Aladdin   86 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/74 showings   |  9457/10718 seats left  | 11.77% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

.4756x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 6 days before release.       

PRE-SALES NOTE: JW2 had 22 days of pre-sales while KotM had 20.  Also some theaters had KotM tickets on sale for a few days before they were officially announced to the public for sale. 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

T-6:

JW2               95 tickets sold [0 sellouts/111 showings |   9177/11263 seats left   |  18.52% sold]

KotM (JW)      75 tickets sold [0 sellouts/98 showings   | 11180/12172 seats left   |    8.15% sold]

KotM (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

Direct parallel isn't always the way to go but KoTM being consistently only 10% behind FK is really good imo.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-23 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	46.945%	31910	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
2	15.468%	10514	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
3	09.308%	6327	Avengers Endgame (2019) [combined]
4	05.276%	3586	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
5	04.952%	3366	Brightburn
6	03.706%	2519	Fandango Early Access The Secret Life of Pets 2
7	03.256%	2213	Booksmart
8       01.718% 1168    Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
9	01.193%	811	The Hustle (2019)
10	01.189%	808	A Dogs Journey

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-24 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	48.911%	40070	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
2	15.455%	12236	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
3	09.358%	7409	Avengers Endgame (2019) [combined]
4	05.218%	4131	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
5	04.798%	3799	Brightburn
6	04.465%	3535	Booksmart
7	02.545%	2015	Fandango Early Access The Secret Life of Pets 2
8       01.465% 1160    Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
9	01.304%	1032	A Dogs Journey
10	01.278%	1012	The Hustle (2019)

===

 

Not sure if I'll keep doing this or not.  But might as well through Opening Night for KotM.

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Direct parallel isn't always the way to go but KoTM being consistently only 10% behind FK is really good imo.

Welll, if it does 90% of JW:FK over its last six days, I'd say that's pretty good for KotM, yes.

 

====

 

JW:FK literally tripled its seat sold count in its last six days locally, going from 2,086 seats sold at T-6 to 6,228 seats sold at stop of tracking - which is 4,142 tickets sold.  

 

There's a reason why I use JW:FK as the measuring stick for walkup movies, locally.

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Welll, if it does 90% of JW:FK over its last six days, I'd say that's pretty good for KotM, yes.

 

====

 

JW:FK literally tripled its seat sold count in its last six days locally, going from 2,086 seats sold at T-6 to 6,228 seats sold at stop of tracking - which is 4,142 tickets sold.  

 

There's a reason why I use JW:FK as the measuring stick for walkup movies, locally.

Would be nuts if that keeps up but I expect it to fall. 

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Would be nuts if that keeps up but I expect it to fall. 

I would look for 55 to 65 percent of JW2 (on an adj basis) over those last couple of days of pre-sales, personally.  60 percent would be more than enough*.

 

* A quick glance tells me if KotM (adj) does 60 percent of JW:FK's sales over the last six days, I get around 8.5m.  One comp isn't gospel, naturally.

 

EDIT::::

 

Hell, 'just' 50% of JW:FK over the last six days gives a comp of 7.5m in previews.  Again, only a JW:FK comp, so grain of salt and all that.

Edited May 25, 2019 by Porthos