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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted

Time to talk internal multis for KotM?

 

The Meg:   11.4x (4.0m)

JW2:            9.7x (15.3m)

Predator:     9.9x (2.5m)

Rampage:  14.9x (2.4m) (lol)

 

Not even going to bother to put in Skull Island's mutli.

 

Looking at another 9.5x to 11.5x range here, maybe?  Possibly 9.5x to 10.5x if we consider The Meg to be an outlier at 4m in previews? For what it's worth, Bumblebee is 10.1x (2.2m) and Wick 3 is 9.6x (5.9m), though I'm not sure how great either of those comps are.

 

So if folks are looking for 60m+ then possibly 6m in previews should be the target?  6.5m to be on the safe side?

 

Could also be a rush factor with fans, I suppose.  Any other good comps to throw in here for a weekend multiplier?

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Mulder Global Phenomenon

Mulder

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Time to talk internal multis for KotM?

 

The Meg:   11.4x (4.0m)

JW2:            9.7x (15.3m)

Predator:     9.9x (2.5m)

Rampage:  14.9x (2.4m) (lol)

 

Not even going to bother to put in Skull Island's mutli.

 

Looking at another 9.5x to 11.5x range here, maybe?  Possibly 9.5x to 10.5x if we consider The Meg to be an outlier at 4m in previews? For what it's worth, Bumblebee is 10.1x (2.2m) and Wick 3 is 9.6x (5.9m), though I'm not sure how great either of those comps are.

 

So if folks are looking for 60m+ then possibly 6m in previews should be the target?  6.5m to be on the safe side?

 

Could also be a rush factor with fans, I suppose.  Any other good comps to throw in here for a weekend multiplier?

I'm thinking 6-7 million previews.

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Cookson Box Office Gold

Cookson

Posted
Posted

Godzilla is doing what it needs to. With it being the start of summer I think we’ll see walk ups(monster films are notorious for this). Wouldn’t be surprised to see a 7m preview and 70+ weekend. I think summer really benefited Aladdin in the end as well. Let walk ups and WOM happen naturally.

 

very similar opening in China it seems. Has a shot at a 200m+ global opening.

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Deja23 Box Office Gold

Deja23

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Just checked Pulse chart and saw Rocketman over Godzilla.  Men in Black was also surprisingly high. Maybe even above Dark Phoenix 

Godzilla has multiple ticket types including IMAX 2D and 3D. 

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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Porthos said:

Time to talk internal multis for KotM?

 

The Meg:   11.4x (4.0m)

JW2:            9.7x (15.3m)

Predator:     9.9x (2.5m)

Rampage:  14.9x (2.4m) (lol)

 

Not even going to bother to put in Skull Island's mutli.

 

Looking at another 9.5x to 11.5x range here, maybe?  Possibly 9.5x to 10.5x if we consider The Meg to be an outlier at 4m in previews? For what it's worth, Bumblebee is 10.1x (2.2m) and Wick 3 is 9.6x (5.9m), though I'm not sure how great either of those comps are.

 

So if folks are looking for 60m+ then possibly 6m in previews should be the target?  6.5m to be on the safe side?

 

Could also be a rush factor with fans, I suppose.  Any other good comps to throw in here for a weekend multiplier?

4pm previews should skew the multi lower

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

If my theater is any indication, Godzilla is looking to be quite backloaded. Could pull a $5M preview number and still go over $60M+ for the weekend.

Rn its Pulse numbers for Thursday are pacing ahead of Aladdin but they're behind where Aladdin was at this point for FSS (from what I can remember). But we shall see, Aladdin had a very good multi which KOTM doesn't need to match.

Edited by Menor
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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

Posted
Posted

G14 did 9.3 previews and 93.2 ow. Last 5 years share of previews in ow has grown a lot.

Even with a backloaded performance, the same 10x the previews would be phenomenal as a sequel.

 

2015 JW1 208.8/18.5 = 11.3x

2018 JW2 148.0/15.3 = 9.7x

 

A similar drop in multiplier would give KOTM 8.6x

Accounting for the 5 year gap opposed to 3 for JW am guessing under 8.5x.

 

7.25 previews and 8.25x gives 60 ow. Hoping it does about that or more.

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

If my theater is any indication, Godzilla is looking to be quite backloaded. Could pull a $5M preview number and still go over $60M+ for the weekend.

Overall Pulse numbers seem to be other way. Strong thursday sales and weaker weekend sales.

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cdsacken Summer Tentpole

cdsacken

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Not really said:

I think around 8m

Yeah and even then I'm not sure. Last 24 hours have been bad for KOTM. Hourly it's still getting killed as well. Barely above Rocketman on hourly. Aladdin is more than double.

Edited by cdsacken
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Hokkaido MUTO Cult Classic

Hokkaido MUTO

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Yeah and even then I'm not sure. Last 24 hours have been bad for KOTM. Hourly it's still getting killed as well. Barely above Rocketman on hourly. Aladdin is more than double.

Are you getting that data via Fandango? 

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cdsacken Summer Tentpole

cdsacken

Posted
Posted (edited) 
1	31.160%	21307	Aladdin (2019)
2	11.699%	8000	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
3	07.996%	5468	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
4	06.578%	4498	Avengers Endgame (2019)
5	05.971%	4083	Rocketman
6	05.237%	3581	Toy Story 4
7	05.066%	3464	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
8	04.359%	2981	Aladdin
9	04.172%	2853	Booksmart
10	03.931%	2688	Brightburn
11	02.562%	1752	Godzilla King of the Monsters

 

Not good for 1 day out.

 

Combined total 1/3 of Aladdin.

Edited by cdsacken
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