The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Deja23]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Spidey pulse numbers are look awful and still front loaded. Again tracking is going to be off.

Isn’t it tracking $150m+ for the 6 day? You think it’s going to go lower than that? I do think it won’t meet the lofty expectations many have on BOT, but it should hopefully meet or beat OW tracking. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just being honest right now I'm expecting in the 50s for OD $250 million 6-day, 480-500 million DOM total. But I'm not going to panic or anything if it comes in way lower than that.

[Sunny Max]

Just now, Menor said:

Just being honest right now I'm expecting in the 50s for OD $250 million 6-day, 480-500 million DOM total. But I'm not going to panic or anything if it comes in way lower than that.

$250 M for 6 days ...  Ohh that would be great .. do you think walkups can be huge for FFH ...??

 

so far presales are not that good .. except for OD ..

[XXR vs XXR]

I'm going to use Captain Marvel previews vs FFH OD as my comp. CM had sold 1140 tickets at my theater by 5:30pm CST on the Wednesday of opening week. This was the last set I did for CM. I'll do a 5:30pm comp on Monday, the 1st, to see how they stack up. As of right now though, we have....

Dolby Cinema - 6 showtimes, 384 tickets sold out of 1230 available (31.22%)

IMAX - 5 showtimes, 222 tickets sold out of 755 available (29.40%)

Real 3D - 6 showtimes, 40 tickets sold out of 750 available (05.33%)

 

Total: 646 out of 2735 available (23.62%)

 

Thoughts: Surprisingly there are no regular digital show times scheduled yet. My only assumption is they're waiting until it gets closer to opening, perhaps even saving them for walkups. I can't imagine they have none available through OD. The 3D percentage is so low, I find myself wondering why they even book them when it seems like you could sell 3-4x the amount in regular shows. 

 

 

EDIT: Forgot the 2 true midnight shows. They've been added to the numbers. 

Edited June 23, 2019 by VenomXXR

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

Just being honest right now I'm expecting in the 50s for OD $250 million 6-day, 480-500 million DOM total. But I'm not going to panic or anything if it comes in way lower than that.

Two things.

 

First off, there is a segment of this forum that... would be not at all pleased with that, I think.  Their reactions would be something to see, alright.

 

Secondly, if that happens, that WILL affect TLK something fierce.  I don't care how beloved TLK is, having 500m DOM sucked out of the market (and a least 350m before it opens) is gonna leave a mark.

 

Personally those numbers seem on the high side (and then some).  But if it happens, whooo boy, the FFH/TLK fights will be something to behold on this board.   

[XXR vs XXR]

 

16 minutes ago, Menor said:

Just being honest right now I'm expecting in the 50s for OD $250 million 6-day, 480-500 million DOM total. But I'm not going to panic or anything if it comes in way lower than that.

 

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Two things.

 

First off, there is a segment of this forum that... would be not at all pleased with that, I think.  Their reactions would be something to see, alright.

 

Secondly, if that happens, that WILL affect TLK something fierce.  I don't care how beloved TLK is, having 500m DOM sucked out of the market (and a least 350m before it opens) is gonna leave a mark.

 

Personally those numbers seem on the high side (and then some).  But if it happens, whooo boy, the FFH/TLK fights will be something to behold on this board.   

 

I don't see it and I don't think the theaters see it either. For comparison, at the AMC Gulf Pointe 30 (largest theater in Texas by total seats), FFH currently has 27 show times for true midnight and OD. TLK is starting with 63 show times for previews Thursday.

I'm thinking upper-30's OD for FFH ($35-39m) and a 6 day in the $190-210m range. 

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

TLK is starting with 63 show times for previews Thursday.

Do want to point out that while there are a lot of showings for Opening Night in Sacto for TLK, none of the theaters have gone gonzo here locally, except for maybe one.

 

It will have the most showings not named Endgame at start of ticket sales, yes.  But EG started with 201 showings in the region and TLK looks to be around 120 to 130 (around, as three theaters haven't checked in yet - see below).  And if I don't include the new joint in town as to have a pure like-for-like, it'll probably be around 115 to 120.

 

Perhaps not coincidentally that's right around the level of Infinity War which started at 103 showings locally.

 

Now it's certainly possible that theaters will add showings before they start selling tickets tomorrow, as I think they did for EG.  But right now we're at 106 showings locally with three theaters not checking in yet.  A lot, but not an astronomical number.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Do want to point out that while there are a lot of showings for Opening Night in Sacto for TLK, none of the theaters have gone gonzo here locally, except for maybe one.

 

It will have the most showings not named Endgame at start of ticket sales, yes.  But EG started with 201 showings in the region and TLK looks to be around 120 to 130 (around, as three theaters haven't checked in yet - see below).  And if I don't include the new joint in town as to have a pure like-for-like, it'll probably be around 115 to 120.

 

Perhaps not coincidentally that's right around the level of Infinity War which started at 103 showings locally.

 

Now it's certainly possible that theaters will add showings before they start selling tickets tomorrow, as I think they did for EG.  But right now we're at 106 showings locally with three theaters not checking in yet.  A lot, but not an astronomical number.

 

So the only movie with more show times off the bat will be the biggest opening, most hyped film in history? That's pretty astronomical to me Porthos lol. TLK, at the end of the day, is still just a remake of an animated film. The fact that theaters think its previews garner somewhere around the same number of shows as IW or even Endgame in some cases, is pretty staggering.

 

How many did TS4 start with in your area?

[Porthos]

Just now, VenomXXR said:

 

So the only movie with more show times off the bat will be the biggest opening, most hyped film in history? That's pretty astronomical to me Porthos lol. TLK, at the end of the day, is still just a remake of an animated film. The fact that theaters think its previews garner somewhere around the same number of shows as IW or even Endgame in some cases, is pretty staggering.

 

How many did TS4 start with in your area?

I'm saying the ratio of the two isn't nearly as close as your area!

 

TS4, for the record, started at 87 showings but it didn't play in as many theaters here as TLK will be.  More times than not, Disney won't schedule the same film at "competing" theaters.  They didn't for IW and TS4, for instance, but did/are for EG and TLK.

[Porthos]

20 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

@FlashMaster659 Got me looking at some of my theaters where showtimes are showing up already for TLK and I can confirm the same. They’re expecting huge numbers. 

 

The biggest theater in Houston is starting off with 63 show times. Endgame ended at 72 there.

 

19 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

58

This is what I'm talking about here, VenomXXR.  Your local is starting with more showings for TLK (63) than EG (58).  Only one local here is doing that so far (13 v 12).

 

That is literally all I was commenting on.

Edited June 23, 2019 by Porthos

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I'm saying the ratio of the two isn't nearly as close as your area!

 

TS4, for the record, started at 87 showings but it didn't play in as many theaters here as TLK will be.  More times than not, Disney won't schedule the same film at "competing" theaters.  They didn't for IW and TS4, for instance, but did/are for EG and TLK.

 

Fine fine fine lol

Either way, I don't see $50m OD for FFH or anywhere near $500m DOM. One thing to keep in mind about its OD is most adults still aren't off of work in relation to the 4th. I'm seeing it on the 3rd for just that reason. Overall though, I'm currently thinking something like...

7/2 = $39m
7/3 = $33m

7/4 = $28m 

7/5 = $35m

7/6 = $41m

7/7 = $30m

[Menor the Destroyer]

39 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Fine fine fine lol

Either way, I don't see $50m OD for FFH or anywhere near $500m DOM. One thing to keep in mind about its OD is most adults still aren't off of work in relation to the 4th. I'm seeing it on the 3rd for just that reason. Overall though, I'm currently thinking something like...

7/2 = $39m
7/3 = $33m

7/4 = $28m 

7/5 = $35m

7/6 = $41m

7/7 = $30m

I'd be perfectly fine with that, and based on how I expect presales to go that OD is what a CM comp will suggest. I just eyeballed an AMATW comp though and if it goes like I expect it's pointing at 65 or so. So I'm just going in between those numbers (summer movie, but more Pulse heavy than the family oriented Ant-Man)

[VanillaSkies]

1 hour ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Fine fine fine lol

Either way, I don't see $50m OD for FFH or anywhere near $500m DOM. One thing to keep in mind about its OD is most adults still aren't off of work in relation to the 4th. I'm seeing it on the 3rd for just that reason. Overall though, I'm currently thinking something like...

7/2 = $39m
7/3 = $33m

7/4 = $28m 

7/5 = $35m

7/6 = $41m

7/7 = $30m

If the weather is fantastic around most of the country, I think itll see a larger drop on the 4th. 

 

Also, I'm a little perplexed why they didn't do the 7pm shows on July 1st, especially considering July 1st is a holiday here in Canada....

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

If the weather is fantastic around most of the country, I think itll see a larger drop on the 4th. 

 

Also, I'm a little perplexed why they didn't do the 7pm shows on July 1st, especially considering July 1st is a holiday here in Canada....

 

Perhaps there are industry rules about opening previews before midnight unless OD is a Friday? I don't really know, otherwise. 

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

50 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Perhaps there are industry rules about opening previews before midnight unless OD is a Friday? I don't really know, otherwise. 

The thanksgiving releases do Tuesday previews, but because this is Monday it’s a bit weird 

[Premium George]

This thread has been on point this year. Great job. But one thing frustrates me, especially this type of conversation-

Menor, the expert- looking like 12-14m in previews.

Idiot- Still early, can do more. 12-16 is better range.

Menor- I hope so, but, looks like 12-14m.

Idiot- Yes, it can do 15, which will lock 150m ow. Great result.

Good thing is now, most people know the experts, so not much confusion. Unlike earlier days when people were ready to call out porthos for Idiot's misinterpretation. 

 

[Legion Again]

15 minutes ago, Premium George said:

This thread has been on point this year. Great job. But one thing frustrates me, especially this type of conversation-

Menor, the expert- looking like 12-14m in previews.

Idiot- Still early, can do more. 12-16 is better range.

Menor- I hope so, but, looks like 12-14m.

Idiot- Yes, it can do 15, which will lock 150m ow. Great result.

Good thing is now, most people know the experts, so not much confusion. Unlike earlier days when people were ready to call out porthos for Idiot's misinterpretation. 

 

Man, it’s so true. The subtweeting here is intense though 

[charlie Jatinder]

5 hours ago, Menor said:

Just being honest right now I'm expecting in the 50s for OD $250 million 6-day, 480-500 million DOM total. But I'm not going to panic or anything if it comes in way lower than that.

I will be careful using CM pure Friday with FFH pure Tuesday to deduce opening day of FFH as in term of pulse, CM burn good amount of business in previews.

 

A better comp is Previews + OD for both.

[keysersoze123]

6 hours ago, Deja23 said:

Isn’t it tracking $150m+ for the 6 day? You think it’s going to go lower than that? I do think it won’t meet the lofty expectations many have on BOT, but it should hopefully meet or beat OW tracking. 

I thought I saw something like 170-200m. If its 150m it has to be a disaster to miss that number. That is sub 300m finish with that kind of OW.

Edited June 24, 2019 by keysersoze123

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, Menor said:

I just eyeballed an AMATW comp though and if it goes like I expect it's pointing at 65 or so. 

That would be a better comp as Summer films are less pre-sale loaded than that of other times.

 

That said; I wanna know how AM 2 Previews + OD looks compared with FFH.

 

I would also caution that Tuesday is realtively biggest day for online sale after opening day. That is also going to inflate FFH OD online sales as it is not only OD but also Tuesday.