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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, danhtruong5 said:

Can i know the website to check?

I was going to say "check the first page." Then I checked the first page briefly as a precaution, and was surprised to find this one wasn't included. This "report" page has a simple breakdown of sales by day up through the upcoming Sunday (and farther for upcoming releases) http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_report.txt

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danhtruong5 Sleeper Hit

danhtruong5

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

I was going to say "check the first page." Then I checked the first page briefly as a precaution, and was surprised to find this one wasn't included. This "report" page has a simple breakdown of sales by day up through the upcoming Sunday (and farther for upcoming releases) http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_report.txt

But what does these presale numbers for FSS mean? Does it mean it will have higher money than other movies?

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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

TC looking to more than double 

 

 EXPANDING
3 14 Avengers: Endgame Buena Vista 1,950+ +965 +98.0% 10

As of tonight in NYC, it's going from 6 theaters and 11 showtimes on Thur to 15 theaters and 38 showings on Friday. (and 1 to 4 at my local) so it's expanding showtimes as well as theaters.   (just a bit less than 69 theaters and 900 or so showings for Thur previews)

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Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said:

But what does these presale numbers for FSS mean? Does it mean it will have higher money than other movies?

Well, literally, all it means is that of the random subset of fandango purchases that got sent to Pulse, slightly more have been purchases for Endga,e this Friday, Saturday, or Sunday than have been for Annabelle3 this Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.       

 

As for what we should take away from that in terms of daily grosses... well, in my opinion, very little. This is a pretty unusual situation. Annabelle’s FSS presales are significantly deflated by it’s Wednesday opening, whereas Endgame’s FSS presales are significantly inflated by it being a sort of OD for the extra post-credits content. I suspect that most Endgame sales this will be from hardcore fans rewatching, which is exactly the sort of people to prebuy by Tuesday. So it may well be that the FSS presales don’t increase that much in the next 2 days and there’s a very low proportion of walkup business for it. Or maybe not 🤷‍♂️

 

Just have to see how it develops in due time.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted

Far From Home Greater Sacramento Area MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS Seat Report: T-6 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

25

2846

3445

17.39%

 

Total Showings Added Today:              6

Total Seats Added Today:                 652

Total Seats Sold Today:                      43

 

Comp against Crimes of Grindelwand Tuesday Limited Engagement Sneaks:

 

1.0490x times as many tickets sold as FB2's sneaks 6 days before their showings.

 

T-6 days:

FB2 sneaks      12 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/6 showings   | 828/1399 seats left  |  40.81% sold]

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted

The Lion King Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

138

15836

17247

8.18%

 

Total Showings Added Today:              5 (2 at non-reserved seating theaters)

Total Seats Added Today:                 276

Total Seats Sold Today:                    261

 

Unadjusted Comps

6.6872x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu after two days of pre-sales.

3.4926x as many tickets sold as Aladdin after two days of pre-sales.

4.2246x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters after two days of pre-sales.

1.5730x as many tickets sold as Toy Story 4 after two days of pre-sales.

 

Day 2:

Pika         53 tickets sold [0 sellouts/69 showings |     7485/7697 seats left     |  2.74% sold]

Aladdin  173 tickets sold [0 sellouts/68 showings |     9001/9405 seats left     |  4.30% sold]

KotM        47 tickets sold [0 sellouts/57 showings  |    7620/7954 seats left     |  4.20% sold]

TS4        208 tickets sold [0 sellouts/87 showings  |  10674/11571 seats left   |  7.75% sold]

NOTE:  Some theaters sold tickets for a couple of days for KotM before being officially announced for sale.

 

Adjusted Comps

1.7135x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom after two days of pre-sales.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

Day 2:

JW2             180 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings   |     9338/10113 seats left  | 7.66% sold]

TLK (JW)      248 tickets sold [0 sellouts/138 showings  |  14315/15643 seats left  | 8.49% sold]

TLK (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Porthos said: 

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-24 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	44.158%	29214	Toy Story 4
2	16.602%	10984	The Lion King (2019) [combined]
3	05.751%	3805	Spider-Man Far From Home (2019) [combined]
4	04.482%	2965	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
5	04.196%	2776	Childs Play (2019)
6	03.806%	2518	The Secret Life of Pets 2
7	03.422%	2264	Annabelle Comes Home
8	03.126%	2068	Men in Black International
9	02.036%	1347	Rocketman
10	01.580%	1045	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-25 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	40.758%	30016	Toy Story 4
2	11.226%	8267	Annabelle Comes Home
3	07.096%	5226	Spider-Man Far From Home (2019) [combined]
4       05.011% 3690    The Lion King (2019) [combined] 
5	04.948%	3644	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
6	04.395%	3237	Childs Play (2019)
7	04.291%	3160	The Secret Life of Pets 2
8	03.655%	2692	Men in Black International
9	03.577%	2634	Avengers Endgame (2019)
10	01.950%	1436	Rocketman
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danhtruong5

Posted
Posted
Just now, Porthos said: 

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-25 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	40.758%	30016	Toy Story 4
2	11.226%	8267	Annabelle Comes Home
3	07.096%	5226	Spider-Man Far From Home (2019) [combined]
4       05.011% 3690    The Lion King (2019) [combined] 
5	04.948%	3644	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
6	04.395%	3237	Childs Play (2019)
7	04.291%	3160	The Secret Life of Pets 2
8	03.655%	2692	Men in Black International
9	03.577%	2634	Avengers Endgame (2019)
10	01.950%	1436	Rocketman

This is weekday or weekend?

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said:

This is weekday or weekend?

Quote 

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours

It's the Top Ten of Fandango Pulse for the day, with all of the multiple entries for any particular film in the top ten combined.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
Just now, Charlie Jatinder said:

I think $7.5-10mn is a good range to expect for FFH Midnight numbers.

I think you are way over-estimating the number of showings out there for FFH midnights.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I think $7.5-10mn is a good range to expect for FFH Midnight numbers. Tuesday OD of something around $45-50mn.

 

Just now, Porthos said:

I think you are way over-estimating the number of showings out there for FFH midnights.

I mean, you're talking about either Aladdin sized pre-sales or Venom sized pre-sales.  And there isn't anything out there right now suggesting that.   

 

With the expansion happening in Sacto and if everything goes right, I might see 4m now in midnights.  But I just think you're being way to optimistic right now on FFH.  Emphasis on right now, of course. We'll see what happens if more showings get added.

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I think you are way over-estimating the number of showings out there for FFH midnights.

Even 5m seems too much unless we see a huge spurt. So far nothing looking at the pulse. It sold 345 tickets in past 23 hours at pulse for midnights. That is not looking like a big number,

 

Current numbers from report page (in the braces tickets sold since 3PM)

 

4686    2019-07-01    MON    Spider-Man Far From Home (51)
31151    2019-07-02    TUE    Spider-Man Far From Home (1079)
6905    2019-07-03    WED    Spider-Man Far From Home (303)
4405    2019-07-04    THU    Spider-Man Far From Home(174)
4462    2019-07-05    FRI    Spider-Man Far From Home(149)
4789    2019-07-06    SAT    Spider-Man Far From Home(101)
2054    2019-07-07    SUN    Spider-Man Far From Home(60)
253    2019-07-08    MON    Spider-Man Far From Home(7)
759    2019-07-09    TUE    Spider-Man Far From Home (30)

 

 

Not big enough PS day to me. OD is slightly more than half the PS at this point. Needs major acceleration next 2 days. But reviews are coming on thursday and so spurt may not happen till then.

Edited by keysersoze123
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Is anybody having trouble being able to read Deadline articles? When I go to one, the whole article itself disappears after a few seconds while everything else on the page remains.

Just so you know, this just happened to me on Deadline when I was pulling up an old article for research and it wasn't happening when you asked. 

 

What happened to me is the article loaded for about three seconds, then disappeared and I was sent straight to the comments section.

 

So quite possibly something weird on their end.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Even 5m seems too much unless we see a huge spurt.

Yeah, I threw out 4m as a guesstimate of an upper bound if it ended up doing a bit more than 2x of Crimes of Grindelwald's Limited Engagement showings which did 1.8m.

 

Still kinda fumbling around in the dark here, but I'm personally keeping that 1.8m in mind as a yardstick due to the limited nature of the showings.

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Geo1500 Indie Sensation

Geo1500

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Just so you know, this just happened to me on Deadline when I was pulling up an old article for research and it wasn't happening when you asked. 

 

What happened to me is the article loaded for about three seconds, then disappeared and I was sent straight to the comments section.

 

So quite possibly something weird on their end.

 

Lmao.. I think they are hiding their terrible records. Worst forecasters I have ever seen. They are professional ship jumpers and pull the trigger quickly most of the times. Someone is burying the past. 

 

Edit: It's just a subtle joke Deadline. I am a regular reader and visitor😃

Edited by Geo1500
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