The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Sunny Max]

1 hour ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

The Lion King – AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 127/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 148/203

9:00 PM - 148/203

12:00 AM - 33/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

6:00 PM - 25/78

6:30 PM - 6/63

7:00 PM - 11/78

8:45 PM - 14/60

9:15 PM - 2/78

9:45 PM - 6/63

10:15 PM - 2/78

12:00 AM - 5/60

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 4/55

6:45 PM - 0/44

7:30 PM - 0/167

8:00 PM - 0/114

8:30 PM - 0/114

9:00 PM - 0/79

9:30 PM - 0/55

10:00 PM - 0/44

10:30 PM - 3/167

11:15 PM - 0/114

11:45 PM - 0/114

12:15 AM - 0/79

12:45 AM - 0/55

1:15 AM - 0/44*

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM - 35/63

8:00 PM - 33/61

8:30 PM - 33/63

10:45 PM - 9/63

11:15 PM - 15/61

11:45 PM - 2/63

 

2D

 

6:00 PM - 18/44

6:15 PM - 11/55

6:30 PM - 42/217

6:45 PM - 4/48

7:00 PM - 11/79

7:15 PM - 5/44

7:45 PM - 5/44

8:00 PM - 14/45

8:15 PM - 8/167

8:30 PM - 0/45

8:45 PM - 2/44

9:00 PM - 8/49

9:15 PM - 0/44

9:30 PM - 0/55

9:45 PM - 3/217

10:00 PM - 0/48

10:15 PM - 0/79

10:30 PM - 0/44

11:00 PM - 0/44

11:15 PM - 0/45

11:30 PM - 3/167

11:45 PM - 0/45

12:00 AM - 0/44

12:15 AM - 0/49

12:30 AM - 0/44

12:45 AM - 0/55

1:00 AM - 0/217

1:15 AM - 0/48*

1:30 AM - 0/79*

 

Total

 

795(+50)/5158 (15.4%)

 

1.4121x as many seats sold as Toy Story 4 after 4 days of pre-sales

 

*These shows are glitched sell-outs. However because of the pattern the showtimes form, it's safe to assume how many seats are in the theater and the zero have been sold so far based on how other shows around that time are doing.

Only 15.4% tickets booked ... not good i think 

[Porthos]

25 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

Only 15.4% tickets booked ... not good i think 

The sheer number of showtimes, especially post 9pm, is dragging the percentage down.

 

For all the hype, this still isn't a SW/Avengers film.  The buying pattern of tickets is gonna be different than those movies.

[Eric Duncan]

Just letting people here know, in case they were planning to track it, that Hobbs and Shaw tickets are officially on sale.

[keysersoze123]

I was looking at few theaters in SF to see how endgame is doing and it has seen a burst of sales for sure. With walkins I am expecting evening show to sellout at Metreon.

Spoiler

AMC Metreon 16 - 31/108(1105AM), 30/108 (315PM), 64/108(730PM), 44/112 (910PM)

Century 20 Daly City and XD - 51/128 (10:10AM). 21/128 (210PM), 49/150 (6PM), 11/110 (10PM)

AMC Bay St - 9/150(2pM), 44/150(6PM),  14/150(10PM)

Century at Tanforan - 14/195(2PM),24/195(610PM),  12/195(940PM)

 

just few theaters in NYC. its doing well.

 

Spoiler

Regal E-Walk - 39/78 (220PM),21/78 (920PM)
AMC EMPIRE - 92/252 (415PM), 160/309(6pm) 31/309 (1015PM)
AMC 34th St - 42/167 (430PM),119/189 (710PM), 37/185 (945PM)
AMC Lincoln Sq - 192/315 (635PM),22 /136(1010PM)
AMC Kips Bay - 41/45(205PM), 42/45(6PM), 26/45 (1015PM)

Regal Essex Crossing - 34/63(640PM)
Regal Battery Park - 41/64 (640PM),
Regal UA Kaufman Astoria & RPX - 38/248(245PM), 78/248 (630PM), 49/245 (1020PM)
Kersotes Showplace - 45/62(210PM),40/62(910PM)

AMC Magic Johnson - 14/251 (7PM)
AMC Ridgefield Park 28/136(210PM), 28/67(710PM), 10/45 (910PM)
AMC Clifton Commons - 28/213(245PM) 44/213 (645PM), 19/213(1045PM)

AMC Bay Plaza Cinema - 57/81(6PM),6/88(920PM)
AMC Garden State - 47/242(215PM),101/242 (620PM), 32/242 (1010PM)
AMC Jersey Garden - 10/107(6PM), 8/190 (9PM)
Regal UA Sheepshead Bay - 33/207(410PM), 11/207 (810PM)
Regal UA Staten Island & RPX - 10/172(430PM), 5/172(830PM)

 

 

Edited June 28, 2019 by keysersoze123
added few more theaters in NYC

[Porthos]

34 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Just letting people here know, in case they were planning to track it, that Hobbs and Shaw tickets are officially on sale.

 

(couldn't even wait 'till Far From Home midnights were done )

 

EDIT:::

 

Standard 7pm previews, so that's something at least.

Edited June 28, 2019 by Porthos

[XXR vs XXR]

36 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Just letting people here know, in case they were planning to track it, that Hobbs and Shaw tickets are officially on sale.

 

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

(couldn't even wait 'till Far From Home midnights were done )

 

EDIT:::

 

Standard 7pm previews, so that's something at least.

 

I’ll give it a look after TLK. So far there’s only 4 show times for Thursday and 3 seats sold at my theater. Might not be worth it overall. 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Sunny Max said:

Only 15.4% tickets booked ... not good i think 

It's 20-21 days out? How in world that's not good? 

[Porthos]

Just now, VenomXXR said:

 

 

I’ll give it a look after TLK. So far there’s only 4 show times for Thursday and 3 seats sold at my theater. Might not be worth it overall. 

BOP is currently forecasting a 100m OW on their long range tracker, which makes it worthwhile in my book.  Then again, they forecasted a 90m OW for Pika Pika on the long range tracker before tickets went on sale, so who knows. 

[Legion Again]

I fully expect Porthos to ponder a bit on whether to track F&F:H&S, decide it will probably be big enough, and then have it just quite not hit the threshold in the end.

[XXR vs XXR]

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

BOP is currently forecasting a 100m OW on their long range tracker, which makes it worthwhile in my book.  Then again, they forecasted a 90m OW for Pika Pika on the long range tracker before tickets went on sale, so who knows. 

 

I find that tracking to be interesting. The last FF movie didn’t even hit $100m OW so I’m not sure how/why a spin-off would, but I guess we will see. Personally I’m thinking in the 70’s somewhere. 

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

I fully expect Porthos to ponder a bit on whether to track F&F:H&S, decide it will probably be big enough, and then have it just quite not hit the threshold in the end.

Oh, I already decided to track it. 100m OW forecast from BOP was all I needed to see.

 

You are right though that if It comes in at sub-7m Thr/sub 70m OW I will be... displeased at tracking it after all.

Edited June 28, 2019 by Porthos

[Eric Duncan]

@Porthos I have sincere doubts on BOP's numbers for the time being. I personally don't really feel like buzz is there for a 100M opening, at least this far out, and this is also a spin-off movie. I sincerely doubt it'll even match Fast Five. I have it opening at around 70M for the time being, but I wouldn't be surprised at something in the 60s.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

@Porthos I have sincere doubts on BOP's numbers for the time being. I personally don't really feel like buzz is there for a 100M opening, at least this far out, and this is also a spin-off movie. I sincerely doubt it'll even match Fast Five. I have it opening at around 70M for the time being, but I wouldn't be surprised at something in the 60s.

If F8 didn't hit 100 I don't see this doing it, that seemed like it had a lot more hype. But it's pretty far out still

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

 

I find that tracking to be interesting. The last FF movie didn’t even hit $100m OW so I’m not sure how/why a spin-off would, but I guess we will see. Personally I’m thinking in the 70’s somewhere. 

 

Just now, CoolEric258 said:

@Porthos I have sincere doubts on BOP's numbers for the time being. I personally don't really feel like buzz is there for a 100M opening, at least this far out, and this is also a spin-off movie. I sincerely doubt it'll even match Fast Five. I have it opening at around 70M for the time being, but I wouldn't be surprised at something in the 60s.

Now you see, I'd really rather not track a sub 70m OW movie.  Pika Pika and KotM turned out to be major flukes in that regard.  My threshold is right around 75m. If it does come in the 60m range like you suspect it might then yeah it wouldn't be worth it at all.

 

But since it is right at the dividing line, I think I'll have to track it just in case it breaks out at some point (though with FFH and TLK sucking up a huge amount of attention I suspect it won't for a while).

 

Might just end up tracking it on the down-low and only start publishing it if it looks to break out in a significant way.  Or maybe pull a DP2 and start officially tracking it mid-way through its run.

 

See how it goes, I suppose.

[Legion Again]

Somehow I think Hobbs and Shaw might not have a super impressive first Pulse day.

[Eric Duncan]

@Porthos Here's what I'd do. Check Sacto for H&S for the first day, with maybe one or two more extra days. If the numbers look high, then keep going at it. If not, then just don't track it, or just check the sales every once in a while. I'd also suggest waiting for tracking numbers to drop in two weeks. If they're predicting bigly numbers, keep on tracking. If not, skip it and wait for It Chapter 2.

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Somehow I think Hobbs and Shaw might not have a super impressive first Pulse day.

Over a full day with no Pulse . If it comes back up before the end of Sunday I should be able to backwards extrapolate the past couple of days for FFH, but if it takes longer than that then...that'll be annoying.

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, Thanos Legion said:

I fully expect Porthos to ponder a bit on whether to track F&F:H&S, decide it will probably be big enough, and then have it just quite not hit the threshold in the end.

Detective Pickahu memories

[Tinalera]

So im guessing no news about pulse? Is it normal for it to go offline like this?

[Sunny Max]

6 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

So im guessing no news about pulse? Is it normal for it to go offline like this?

Yeah no news yet ... server still completely down ...