The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, john2000 said:

@Menor whats your opinion for this?  For sonys. 125 over six day ?

Try doubling that. I can't see anything below 180 even with no Pulse to confirm. Like wtf the movie is hitting 100 million 3 day in China, why would it randomly be so little hyped in the USA to get 125

Edited June 29, 2019 by Menor

[Cap]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

 

1

40 minutes ago, Porthos said:

That's why @keysersoze123's suggestion about a group project of compiling ticket info from major cities, while interesting, is completely impractical IMO.  We'd probably need at least 10 people alone for NYC and its surrounding areas given how many theaters there are there.  Similar problems for LA and Chicago.

If we were to do something like that, I would respectfully suggest, instead of looking at a whole metro area, you just make sure people have the Top 5 to 10 Theaters in the Country covered.  (I know RthEnd has a list, but I can never find it.  If someone does, that would be awesome!)

 

As for me, Lincoln Square & Southern Maine's going to be regularly covered until Star Wars.  Still flirting with the idea of maybe possibly perhaps looking into Empire 25.  (I suspect I will do a final Thursday for Lion King on that, at the minimum.  But TLK is SDCC, so argh.  *thinks about Frozen Comps, do I want more info?*)

 

As for Spider-Man,

 

Wondy Self: You need to finish your work, you said you weren't going to do a Spidey-Seat Count

Cap Self: Fuck it, Let's go.

 

All right.  I did a quick count of ONLY the Cinemagic IMAX Screen.

 

Far From Home
Tuesday	186	576
Wednesday	68	576
Thursday	15	576
Friday	16	576
Saturday	45	576
Sunday	18	576
Total	348	3456

 

DEFINITELY frontloading, DEFINITELY getting hit by the Fourth of July, DEFINITELY a case of not repeating the TS4 predictions. Everyone in the country would have to decide NOT to go to the movie theaters on Thursday for that to get anywhere close to 125-140M.

 

On the other hand, this could be Ant-Man and the Wasp that somehow went from a projected 95M opening to an actual 75M.

 

On the other hand, a Six Day below 187.6M would be

 

 

 

 

[Legion Again]

2 hours ago, captainwondyful said:

On the other hand, a Six Day below 187.6M would be

This is a pretty deep cut, assuming I even interpreted it correctly 😛 

[Inceptionzq]

So I decided to try out some ticket counting in the Denver metro area. I did five theaters, but will only post the breakdown of the two biggest ones I did.

 

Far From Home July 1&2 Showings Denver Metro Area

 

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

 

IMAX:

12:01 AM – 79/411

8:45 AM – 21/411

12 PM – 33/411

3:15 PM – 22/411

6:30 PM – 202/411

9:45 PM – 61/411

 

Real D 3D: 

12:01 AM – 4/56

9:45 AM – 0/56

1 PM – 0/56

4:15 PM – 0/56

7:30 PM – 12/56

10:45 PM – 0/56

 

Prime 3D: 

12:01 AM – 16/187

10:15 AM – 14/187

1:30 PM – 12/187

4:45 PM – 32/187

8 PM – 61/187

11:15 PM – 7/187

 

2D:

12:01 AM – 30/158

9:30 AM – 6/48

10:45 AM – 83/158

12:45 PM – 0/48

2 PM – 62/158

4 PM – 17/48

5:15 PM – 118/158

7:15 PM – 23/48

8:30 PM – 124/158

10:30 PM – 4/48

11:45 PM – 0/158

 

Dolby: 

12:01 AM – 98/217

9:15 AM – 61/217

12:30 PM – 65/217

3:45 PM – 92/217

7 PM – 179/217

10:15 PM – 87/217

 

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

 

IMAX: 

12:01 AM – 62/384

10 AM – 18/384

1:15 PM – 17/384

4:30 PM – 37/384

7:45 PM – 132/384

10:50 PM – 12/384

 

Real D 3D:

12:01 AM – 2/85

11 AM – 6/52

2:15 PM – 7/52

5:30 PM – 34/52

8:45 PM – 5/52

 

Dolby:

12:01 AM – 82/210

9:15 AM – 57/210

12:30 PM – 68/210

3:45 PM – 115/210

7 PM – 178/210

10:10 PM – 94/210

 

2D:

12:01 AM – 53/159

9 AM – 13/85

10:30 AM – 92/159

12:05 PM – 13/85

1:45 PM – 57/159

3:15 PM – 14/85

5 PM – 116/159

6:30 PM – 50/85

8:15 PM – 122/159

8:30 PM – 53/159

9:40 PM – 20/85

 

Total for 5 theaters:  4183/22686(18.4%)

Edited June 29, 2019 by Inceptionzq

[XXR vs XXR]

35 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Total for 5 theaters:  4183/22686(18.4%)

This is for Tuesday?

Edited June 29, 2019 by VenomXXR

[VanillaSkies]

Damn, I really wish that Fandango was back up. 

FFH is really starting to fill up in NYC. 

 

Empire 25 and Lincoln Square both look really strong for opening day at the moment. 

A shame they decided not to do Monday 7pm  previews, could have had a wicked Tuesday number. 

Regardless, I agree with @Menor, I can't see anything less than a 180 million 6 day at this point. 

The tradition 3 day should still make close to 100 million with family business, plus with the Thursday holiday, Wednesday night should be strong and a lot of people will take Friday off to make it an extra long weekend. 

 

Also, let's not forget that Transformers 2 pulled off a 62 million opening day in 2009 on a Wednesday in late June. 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=transformers2.htm

Summer weekday openings are a while different ball game. 

Surely there must be as much demand for FFH, especially after Endgame, as there was for T2?

Also, the original Transformers (in 2007) opened on Tuesday, July 3rd. 

It rose 4% on Wednesday!
I don't expect the same here because of pent up demand and rush factor, but it should have a very good Wednesday hold!


Conservatively, I could see something like this;

Tuesday: 45 million 

Wednesday: 31.5 million (- 30%)

Thursday: 20.5 million (-35%)

Friday: 27.7 million (+35%)

Saturday: 31.8 million (+15%)

Sunday: 27.1 million (-15%)

 

6 day total: 183.6 million 

And that's giving it a very conservative opening day.....

[Inceptionzq]

8 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

This is for Tuesday?

I included the midnight showings which is why I put July 1st in the title

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Thanos Legion said:

This is a pretty deep cut, assuming I even interpreted it correctly 😛 

I presume that even it doesn't happen, that film has nothing to prove to FFH.

 

(@captainwondyful )

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

32 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Damn, I really wish that Fandango was back up. 

FFH is really starting to fill up in NYC. 

 

Empire 25 and Lincoln Square both look really strong for opening day at the moment. 

A shame they decided not to do Monday 7pm  previews, could have had a wicked Tuesday number. 

Regardless, I agree with @Menor, I can't see anything less than a 180 million 6 day at this point. 

The tradition 3 day should still make close to 100 million with family business, plus with the Thursday holiday, Wednesday night should be strong and a lot of people will take Friday off to make it an extra long weekend. 

 

Also, let's not forget that Transformers 2 pulled off a 62 million opening day in 2009 on a Wednesday in late June. 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=transformers2.htm

Summer weekday openings are a while different ball game. 

Surely there must be as much demand for FFH, especially after Endgame, as there was for T2?

Also, the original Transformers (in 2007) opened on Tuesday, July 3rd. 

It rose 4% on Wednesday!
I don't expect the same here because of pent up demand and rush factor, but it should have a very good Wednesday hold!


Conservatively, I could see something like this;

Tuesday: 45 million 

Wednesday: 31.5 million (- 30%)

Thursday: 20.5 million (-35%)

Friday: 27.7 million (+35%)

Saturday: 31.8 million (+15%)

Sunday: 27.1 million (-15%)

 

6 day total: 183.6 million 

And that's giving it a very conservative opening day.....

Very conservative holds in general given that the 3rd should see a lot more people off work, though I'm assuming this is your floor?

[XXR vs XXR]

29 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

I included the midnight showings which is why I put July 1st in the title

 

True Thoughts: Sorry about that. I need to read more carefully

 

 

Internet Thoughts: 

[Mekanos]

TASM1's 6 day adjusted for inflation is around 152 million. FFH opening is gonna be huge given that it's the only superhero movie audiences give a damn about since Endgame. I wonder if it can go over 200M.

Edited June 30, 2019 by Mekanos

[nguyenkhoi282]

Mon (5) <= Midnight Previews
Tue (45) = 50
Wed (32) [-29%] = 82
Thu (27) [-16%] = 109
Fri (35) [+30%] = 144
Sat (43) [+23%] = 187
Sun (34) [-21%] = 221 <= 6-day Opening Week
Mon (13.5) [-60%] = 234.5
Tue (19) [+41%] = 253.5
Wed (11.5) [-40%] = 265
Thu (10.5) [-9%] = 275.5

 

I'm just throwing number around. Used TASM2 as comp

Edited June 30, 2019 by nguyenkhoi282

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

Mon (5) <= Midnight Previews
Tue (45) = 50
Wed (32) [-29%] = 82
Thu (27) [-16%] = 109
Fri (35) [+30%] = 144
Sat (43) [+23%] = 187
Sun (34) [-21%] = 221 <= 6-day Opening Week
Mon (13.5) [-60%] = 234.5
Tue (19) [+41%] = 253.5
Wed (11.5) [-40%] = 265
Thu (10.5) [-9%] = 275.5

 

I'm just throwing number around. Used TASM2 as comp

MN I doubt it'll be 5. 2-3 would be good to shoot for.

[Inceptionzq]

The Lion King Thursday Night Showings Denver Metro Area

 

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

 

IMAX:

7 PM – 19/411

10 PM – 5/411

 

Real D 3D:

6:30 PM – 0/48

7:10 PM – 5/48

9:25 PM – 0/48

10:05 PM – 0/48

 

Prime 3D:

7:30 PM – 41/187

10:30 PM – 3/187

 

Dolby:

6 PM- 110/217

9 PM – 44/217

11:50 PM – 3/217

 

2D:

6 PM – 23/158

6 PM – 0/56

6:10 PM – 0/48

6:20 PM – 4/44

6:40 PM – 0/94

6:50 PM – 2/92

7:20 PM – 9/44

7:40 PM – 2/56

7:50 PM – 0/44

8 PM – 3/40

8:10 PM – 2/36

8:20 PM – 0/48

8:30 PM – 4/94

8:40 PM – 0/92

8:50 PM – 0/44

9:05 PM – 0/158

9:10 PM – 0/56

9:15 PM – 0/48

9:20 PM – 0/44

9:30 PM – 3/94

9:45 PM – 0/92

10:15 PM – 0/44

10:40 PM – 0/56

10:50 PM – 0/44

11 PM – 0/40

11:10 PM – 0/36

11:20 PM – 0/48

11:30 PM – 0/94

11:40 PM – 0/92

11:50 PM – 0/44

11:55 PM – 0/56

12:00 AM – 0/158

 

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

 

IMAX:

7 PM – 40/384

10 PM – 5/384

 

Real D 3D:

6:30 PM – 3/85

7:30 PM – 0/52

9:30 PM – 0/85

10:30 PM – 0/52

 

Dolby:

6 PM – 64/210

9 PM – 27/210

 

2D:

6 PM – 25/159

6:10 PM – 0/52

6:15 PM – 0/52

6:20 PM – 0/41

6:40 PM – 11/85

6:50 PM – 2/39

7:10 PM – 7/45

7:15 PM – 2/85

7:20 PM – 0/45

7:40 PM – 0/52

7:50 PM – 0/39

8 PM – 8/159

8:10 PM – 0/45

8:20 PM – 0/41

8:30 PM – 11/85

9:10 PM – 0/52

9:15 PM – 2/52

9:20 PM – 0/41

9:30 PM – 0/159

9:40 PM – 0/85

9:50 PM – 0/39

10:10 PM – 0/45

10:15 PM – 0/85

10:20 PM – 0/45

10:40 PM – 0/52

10:50 PM – 0/39

11 PM – 0/159

 

Total from 6 theaters : 966/16866(5.7%)

[Cap]

Avengers: Endgame Saturday
LS13	402	922	43.60%
SMCM	200	438	45.66%

 

Again, I totally slept through/forgot that Lincoln Square had a 10AM showings, so it's numbered from yesterday for that.  The Cinemagic IMAX theater was 89% sold out for the day.

[MattW]

3 hours ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

Mon (5) <= Midnight Previews
Tue (45) = 50
Wed (32) [-29%] = 82
Thu (27) [-16%] = 109
Fri (35) [+30%] = 144
Sat (43) [+23%] = 187
Sun (34) [-21%] = 221 <= 6-day Opening Week
Mon (13.5) [-60%] = 234.5
Tue (19) [+41%] = 253.5
Wed (11.5) [-40%] = 265
Thu (10.5) [-9%] = 275.5

 

I'm just throwing number around. Used TASM2 as comp

Thursday the 4th should be bigger than wednesday. 

[narniadis]

3 minutes ago, MattW said:

Thursday the 4th should be bigger than wednesday. 

Not based on the last decade of box office. 4th of July tends to be down with a kink for the actual day of the week it lands on. Its weird to have a new release opening like Spidey so no guarantees but a drop of 10% from Wednesday would be a decent expectation to set. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Not based on the last decade of box office. 4th of July tends to be down with a kink for the actual day of the week it lands on. Its weird to have a new release opening like Spidey so no guarantees but a drop of 10% from Wednesday would be a decent expectation to set. 

TASM dropped 30% on the 4th

Edited June 30, 2019 by Menor

[narniadis]

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

TASM dropped 30% on the 4th

True, I was basing off the last few years and didnt look back that far. Last year should be ignored as most films actually went up 😄. The whole scenario we have with Spidey just makes it weird to lay out, as you well know. Probably should have used the word minimum on that drop since I personally expect it to be 25% or more. 

[nguyenkhoi282]

29 minutes ago, Menor said:

TASM dropped 30% on the 4th

I think it has more to do with the fact that the 4th was the day right after OD