The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

29 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

@Porthos What's your criteria for what a sellout is when you do your reports?

 

23 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

A Sell Out is 100% (or just the WheelChair Only Seats Left).  

 

Also on final report ONLY I count any showing with six of fewer seats left as a sellout (and manually adjust the seats sold as well).  Slightly more restrictive than the Tele Standard. (which IIRC is one row or equivalent) but I developed mine independently of his.

 

Just pick something you're comfortable with and stick with it. 👍

[DAJK]

Holy crap, looking at all the speculation for It, I still can't believe US opened to freaking 74M!! The buzz on that thing was insane!

[Eric the Minion]

https://deadline.com/2019/09/it-chapter-two-fandango-record-advance-ticket-sales-horror-film-1202709575/

 

Fandango also unveiled their top 10 most anticipated fall movies. As always, this stuff should be taken with a grain of salt, but it's still a fun little indicator. Should also mention it only goes up to November, so if you're wondering where Star Wars or Jumanji or Cats are, that's why.

 

Quote

Top Ten Most Anticipated Fall Movies

It: Chapter Two
Joker
Frozen II
Terminator: Dark Fate
Zombieland: Double Tap
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Downton Abbey
Charlie’s Angels
Ad Astra

 

Top Ten Most Anticipated Fall Female Performances

Linda Hamilton (Terminator: Dark Fate)
Angelina Jolie (Maleficent: Mistress of Evil)
Jessica Chastain (It: Chapter Two)
Emma Stone (Zombieland: Double Tap)
Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)
Michelle Pfeiffer (Maleficent: Mistress of Evil)
Emilia Clarke (Last Christmas)
Natalie Portman (Lucy in the Sky)
Kristen Stewart (Charlie’s Angels)
Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)

 

Top Ten Most Anticipated Fall Male Performances

Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Arnold Schwarzenegger (Terminator: Dark Fate)
Woody Harrelson (Zombieland: Double Tap)
Will Smith (Gemini Man)
Bill Skarsgard (It: Chapter Two)
Brad Pitt (Ad Astra)
Sylvester Stallone (Rambo: Last Blood)
Bill Hader (It: Chapter Two)
Matt Damon (Ford v. Ferrari)

 

Most Anticipated Pairings

Matt Damon & Christian Bale (in Ford v. Ferrari)
Joaquin Phoenix & Zazie Beetz (in Joker)
Jessica Chastain & James McAvoy (in It: Chapter Two)
Angelina Jolie & Elle Fanning (in Maleficent: Mistress of Evil)
Luke Wilson & Woody Harrelson (in Zombieland: Double Tap)

 

Most Anticipated Action Movies

Terminator: Dark Fate
Zombieland: Double Tap
Charlie’s Angels
Ford v. Ferrari
Rambo: Last Blood

 

Most Anticipated Family Movies

Frozen II
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
The Addams Family
Abominable

 

For comparison's, last year's Most Anticipated went as follows: Crimes of Grindelwald, Bohemian Rhapsody, Venom, Ralph Breaks the Internet, A Star is Born

[Porthos]

Will admit I am now curious if the Regal Unlimited effect will rear its head for It 2.  For those who don't really follow it much, you can only "hold" three showings in the system at any one time, IIRC.  This mean, again IMO, it really isn't geared to long term pre-sales as most folks probably don't want a hold for weeks on end.

 

Now though, even the more committed movie junkies should be willing to put a "hold" on a seat only a few days away.  I haven't seen much of an effect at the local Regals (at least compared to the local Cinemarks and Cinema Wests), but curious to see if there is any sort of spike over the next couple of days.

 

Then again, I really have no idea how well the Unlimited program is doing as I haven't seen much coverage of it in the press or on the web.

Edited September 3, 2019 by Porthos

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

58 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Nobody said that, but keep on strawmanning I guess.    

 

Also this “news” has no informational value because it was guaranteed to happen. It 1 was the previous record holder and this is coming 2 years later.

 

Except that people actually said that on the IT 2 topic.

 

Plus, it's been 2 years since IT1, not 10 years, to make that comp useless. 

[XXR & Friends]

On 9/1/2019 at 7:38 AM, VenomXXR said:

It: Chapter 2 — AMC Willowbrook 24 — 4 Days to Previews — 7am CST

 

Dolby / IMAX: 4 shown times, 178 tickets sold out of 712 seats available (25.00%)

Digital: 22 show times, 70 tickets sold out of 1796 seats available (03.90%)

 

Total: 26 show times, 248 tickets sold out of 2508 seats available (09.89%)

 

 

Notes: For a $100m+ OW film, this presale has been entirely unremarkable. I suppose my Godzilla: KOTM comp is the best I'll have for this, and it was at 426 tickets sold by 530pm of previews night. Right now I'm thinking this will land in the 700-750 range by that timeframe, which would give it an extrapolated preview of the $10-11m.

 

It: Chapter 2 — AMC Willowbrook 24 — 2 Days to Previews — 2pm CST

 

Dolby / IMAX: 4 shown times, 218 tickets sold out of 712 seats available (30.62%)

 

Digital: 22 show times, 127 tickets sold out of 1796 seats available (07.07%)

 

 

Total: 26 show times, 345 tickets sold out of 2508 seats available (13.76%)

 

[Eric the Minion]

4 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

 

Except that people actually said that on the IT 2 topic.

 

Plus, it's been 2 years since IT1, not 10 years, to make that comp useless. 

Online ticket sales are getting more and more prominent every year to the point that a two year difference is still astronomical.

 

Crimes of Grindelwald sold more advance tickets than the first Fantastic Beasts, and it grossed less on OW. Ghostbusters sold more tickets in advance than 22 Jump Street, and it grossed less on OW. Again, It 2 selling more advance tickets than Us speaks more volumes than outselling the first It, because of how recent the two are.

[Joyous Legion]

11 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

 

Except that people actually said that on the IT 2 topic.

 

Plus, it's been 2 years since IT1, not 10 years, to make that comp useless. 

Ah, I was just thinking of this thread. If some people were actually saying that elsewhere, all I have to say is     

 

2 years is a lot in PS land. Not totally incomparable yet, but enough that the correlation between higher PS and higher OW becomes quite weak.

[TalismanRing]

NYC Local: 

 

IT2 (Tues 4:25PM)

35/301
18/255
10/257
12/248
17/301
32/301
11/205
13/256

25/320
19/320

 

Mon 9AM: 147/2764 = 5.31%
Tues: 4:25PM: 192/2764 = 6.94% (+45)

 

 

TLK:  (Tues: 4:30PM)  444/3228 = 13.75%  / $23m Previews --->  $9.95m
TS4 (Tues: 4PM) 165 /2049 = 8.05%  / $12m Previews --->  $13.96m

X-Men 7 (Tues: 4PM)  103/942 = 10.93%  / $5m Previews --->  $9.32m

OUATIH (Tues 2:15pm) 117/1179 = 9.82% / $5.8m Previews --->  $9.52m

 

 

 

[keysersoze123]

IT2 - AMC Empire 25

 

T-2 and I see some acceleration still it has so much to fill. I will again check tonight to see where it ends up today. 

 

Edit: Quick update now it has sold another 59 tickets(overall 158 tickets since yesterday). its definitely a late bloomer.

 

Spoiler

IT Chapter 2
AMC Empire 25

Imax -182/303 (7PM),27/303 (1115PM) -209/606
Dolby -201/225 (7PM), 54/225 (11PM) -255/450
Prime -145/180 (7PM),45/180 (1045PM) - 190/360

2D - 16/145(A25 5PM), 9/134(A5 515PM),7/126(A3 530PM),5/134(A10 545PM), 9/121(A21 6PM), 4/121 (A15 615PM), 6/99 (A11 630PM), 25/99 (A16 645PM), 35/142 (A19 715PM), 26/262(A17 730PM), 20/144(A20 745PM), 19/262(A12 8PM),6/148(A6 815PM),34/146(A7 830PM), 8/145(A25 845PM), 13/134(A5 9PM), 6/126(A3 915PM), 17/122(A10 930PM),4/121 (A21 945PM), 2/121(A15 10PM),0/99(A11 1015PM),15/99(A16 1030PM),0/309(A9 1110PM), 8/142 (A19 1120PM), 10/262 (A17 1130PM),11/144(A20 1140PM), 9/262 (A12 1150PM),10/148 (A6 12AM) -  334/4315

Overall  -988(830)/5731 (16.21%) +158

 

Edited September 4, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Litio]

3 hours ago, Eric! said:

Online ticket sales are getting more and more prominent every year to the point that a two year difference is still astronomical.

 

Crimes of Grindelwald sold more advance tickets than the first Fantastic Beasts, and it grossed less on OW. Ghostbusters sold more tickets in advance than 22 Jump Street, and it grossed less on OW. Again, It 2 selling more advance tickets than Us speaks more volumes than outselling the first It, because of how recent the two are.

Source? 

 

"In Fandango pre-sales, FB2 was pacing in sync with FB1 with the ticket-seller survey "

 

https://deadline.com/2018/11/fantastic-beasts-the-crimes-of-grindelwald-weekend-box-office-opening-widows-viola-davis-green-book-1202503142/

 

Ghostbusters was a movie target to female audience while 22JS was target to male audience. Presales works differently.

 

Yeah, presales have grown in 2 years, but not as much as you are thinking. IT 2 is a sequel to a phenomenon. It would be no surprise if its presales dropped from first movie. Even Star Wars 8 wasn't able to surpass SW7 presales, why should IT 2, a rated R horror?

This record points a opening at least over $100m

 

Edited September 3, 2019 by Litio

[Inceptionzq]

On 9/2/2019 at 12:12 PM, Inceptionzq said:

IT: Chapter 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 65/411(+8)

10:45 PM – 2/411

Prime: 

7 PM – 55/187(+3)

10:45 PM – 10/187(+1)

Dolby: 

7 PM – 132/217(+4)

10:45 PM – 20/217

2D: 

5 PM – 14/56

5:15 PM – 7/38(+4)

5:30 PM – 3/38

5:45 PM – 0/48

6 PM – 17/48

6:15 PM – 3/44

6:30 PM – 0/44

7 PM – 6/158(+4)

7 PM – 4/92

7:15 PM – 2/92

7:30 PM – 7/94

8 PM – 10/48

8:15 PM – 3/48(+3)

8:30 PM – 7/44(+2)

8:45 PM – 0/56

9 PM – 2/38

9:15 PM – 0/38

9:30 PM – 0/48

9:45 PM – 0/48

10 PM – 0/44

10:15 PM – 0/44

10:30 PM – 0/44

10:40 PM – 0/94

10:45 PM – 0/158

10:45 PM – 0/92

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 19/384

10:45 PM – 6/384

Dolby:

7 PM – 121/210

10:45 PM – 32/210(+2)

2D: 

5 PM – 14/85

5:30 PM – 2/52

6 PM – 2/52

6:30 PM – 9/52

7 PM – 46/159

7:30 PM – 2/85

7:45 PM – 0/85

8:45 PM – 4/85

9:15 PM – 2/52

9:45 PM – 0/52

10:15 PM – 3/52

Total from 9 theaters(112 showings): 1587(+98)/17065 (9.3%)

I had to do this a few hours early because I’ll most likely not be able to do a count later. So, the comps are slightly below what they’ll actually be for today. But it’s better than nothing.

TLK comp: 9.74M

Hobbs comp: 16.92M

IT: Chapter 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 71/411(+6)

10:45 PM – 4/411(+2)

Prime:

7 PM – 75/187(+20)

10:45 PM – 15/187(+5)

Dolby:

7 PM – 132/217

10:45 PM – 33/217(+13)

2D:

5 PM – 17/56(+3)

5:15 PM – 7/38

5:30 PM – 6/38(+3)

5:45 PM – 0/48

6 PM – 19/48(+2)

6:15 PM – 3/44

6:30 PM – 0/44

7 PM – 8/158(+2)

7 PM – 4/92

7:15 PM – 6/92(+4)

7:30 PM – 10/94(+3)

8 PM – 11/48(+1)

8:15 PM – 3/48

8:30 PM – 7/44

8:45 PM – 2/56(+2)

9 PM – 5/38(+3)

9:15 PM – 0/38

9:30 PM – 0/48

9:45 PM – 0/48

10 PM – 0/44

10:15 PM – 0/44

10:30 PM – 0/44

10:40 PM – 0/94

10:45 PM – 0/158

10:45 PM – 0/92

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 29/384(+10)

10:45 PM – 6/384

Dolby:

7 PM – 130/210(+9)

10:45 PM – 45/210(+13)

2D:

5 PM – 16/85(+2)

5:30 PM – 2/52

6 PM – 3/52(+1)

6:30 PM – 11/52(+2)

7 PM – 54/159(+8)

7:30 PM – 4/85(+2)

7:45 PM – 7/85(+7)

8:45 PM – 4/85

9:15 PM – 2/52

9:45 PM – 0/52

10:15 PM – 5/52(+2)

NEW 10:30 PM – 0/159

Total from 9 theaters(115 showings): 1920(+333)/17298(+233) (11.1%)

TLK comp: 10.11M

Hobbs comp: 17.7M

OUATiH comp: 13.68M

Edited September 4, 2019 by Inceptionzq

[TwoMisfits]

So, I'm back from a week's vacation, but figured I'd mention my locals' set again to see how the big release (and the holdovers) are doing...and there are a few surprises and a semi-massacre on the holdovers (but not a full one)...1st local (Cinemark) set...

 

NEW 

It 2 (6 - 25 showings) - not gonna bother mentioning sizes b/c it gets the big screens - this is a huge set on par with supers, but not as high at TLK and Endgame got - the theater got a great set, but not a full clear out...maybe lesson slightly learned from TLK

 

RETURNING

Saaho (1 - 4 showings - apparently, it was so slow Labor Day, this got double screened last week)

Angel Has Fallen (1 - 5 showings)

Good Boys (1 - 6 showings)

Dora/Mission Mangal (1 - 3 showings/2 showings)

Spidey EC/Angry Birds (1 - 4 showings/1 showing) - not only does Spidey stay, but it only loses 1 showing from its Labor Day set...Angry Birds took the hit and gets to only keep the 10am...gotta love school in session - only 4 showings total for "kid" movies right now - 3 for Dora and 1 for AB

 

GONE

The Lion King, Toys 4 (school is in session and Spidey beat it in the Labor Day expansion, so Spidey obviously won and kept the extra week), Ready or Not (that was fast). Hobbs and Shaw, Scary Stories 

 

One screen still open - I'm sure a foreign film will get it...but let me say - it's pretty funny that theaters just won't let go of the super - TLK and H&S and even Scary Stories had the better per theater averages last weekend, but Spidey stays and not them...schools are in now, and folks just drop into supers any day of the week...although I'm also curious if Sony might have also offered theaters a sweetheart deal for rebooking Spidey to help get it to $400M...

Edited September 4, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[keysersoze123]

Anyone know when Joker tickets go on sale?

[FlashMaster659]

22 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Anyone know when Joker tickets go on sale?

No date yet. My guess would be either right after It 2's opening weekend or a week after that.

[Inceptionzq]

27 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Anyone know when Joker tickets go on sale?

Probably next week so it doesn’t take attention away from IT 2

[Old Spice]

49 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Probably next week so it doesn’t take attention away from IT 2

Yeah, given that it's making its North American premiere at TIFF Monday night amid more hoopla and J. Phoenix's acting award, sometime between Tuesday and Friday of next week would seem like a good bet.

Edited September 4, 2019 by A Star is Orm
typo

[Eric the Minion]

It Chapter Two Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	132	1,909	25,488	7.49%

 

Total Showings Sold Today: 21

Total Seats Added Today: 3,129

Total Seats Sold Today: 360

 

Comp

2.079x of Once Upon 2 days before release (12.06M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.295x of The Lion King 2 days before release (6.78M)

2.272x of Hobbs & Shaw 2 days before release (13.2M)

 

Adjusted Seats Sold: 299

 

🤔 Feel like it could have sold more, but things are still indicating a low teens number, so...it could be worse?

[keysersoze123]

I updated my earlier post and now IT2 has sold 158 tickets since yesterday evening at AMC Empire 25. Good jump today.

[filmlover]

Screen bookings are looking on the low side for IT around here considering the box office isn't exactly booming at the moment and it probably shouldn't have much difficulty securing as many screens possible considering the length of the movie. Starting to think sub-$100M is looking a lot more likely than $100M+.