The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[ZackM]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Various theater chains (Michigan) Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	10	0	0	2	0
Seats Added	663	22	9	175	8
Seats Sold	236	249	163	229	253
12/9/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	249	27,061	42,796	15,735	36.77%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	11	26	49	71	91

 

 

I'm expecting a huge day tomorrow.  Tuesdays have been really good while I've been tracking and a bunch of showings were added today.  Fingers crossed.

[keysersoze123]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

The rest of the weekend

SW9

MTC1 D2 - overall 5307 shows 212283/1084629 3121576.96 +20195
MTC2 D2 - overall 4510 shows 160489/740203 1734639.00 +18897
MTC1 D3 -  overall 5139 shows 120312/1050308 1764004.96 +15177
MTC2 D3 - overall 4449 shows 86498/732783 903016.00 +14358

 

Under 4 days of PS since my update on thursday evening. Really good and Day 2 PS run rate is ahead of Day 1 PS at this point. Day 3 PS is also getting stronger now.

SW9 Previews (T-10)

MTC1 Prev - overall 5162 shows 338466/860664 5040542.16 +4407
MTC2 Prev - overall 3100 shows 224238/452202 2836019.00 +2748

 

This is for 22 hours since my last update and so pace is almost on par as yesterday but it did not go further up as I was hoping.

[Eric Prime]

Black Christmas Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	16	31	2,744	1.13%

 

Comp

0.470x of Crawl 3 days before release (470K)

0.252x of Scary Stories (587K)

0.689x of 47 Meters (355K)

0.108x of Zombieland 2 (307K)

0.313x of Doctor Sleep (470K)

 

Yeah this is okay. We'll see what the numbers are like later on, but it would indicate at least an opening in the double digits this far out.

[Eric Prime]

Jumanji: The Next Level Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	68	233	15,850	1.47%

Total Seats Sold Today: 32

 

Comp

1.064x of Maleficent 3 days before release (2.45M)

0.135x of Frozen II (1.14M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.315x of Hobbs & Shaw (1.83M)

 

Yeah, this was not a good day. Pretty much stalled from yesterday and all that. It is interesting to see it pretty much follow Maleficent to a tee the past couple days. I guess a gun to my head, something like 2.4M previews sounds about right, but with a lower IM to account for the earlier preview shows.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

SW9 Previews (T-10)

MTC1 Prev - overall 5162 shows 338466/860664 5040542.16 +4407
MTC2 Prev - overall 3100 shows 224238/452202 2836019.00 +2748

 

This is for 22 hours since my last update and so pace is almost on par as yesterday but it did not go further up as I was hoping.

SW9 D1.

MTC1 OD - overall 5378 shows 256905/1096527 3978179.57  +7535
MTC2 OD - overall 4493 shows 197085/734806 2200573.00 +9399

 

Very strong day for Day 1. MTC2 is almost 3.5x Preview sales !!!. at MTC2 the OD PS should overtake Previews PS by release date and that is impressive for a PS heavy movie like SW9.
 

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

SW9 D1.

MTC1 OD - overall 5378 shows 256905/1096527 3978179.57  +7535
MTC2 OD - overall 4493 shows 197085/734806 2200573.00 +9399

 

Very strong day for Day 1. MTC2 is almost 3.5x Preview sales !!!. at MTC2 the OD PS should overtake Previews PS by release date and that is impressive for a PS heavy movie like SW9.
 

It's definitely not a bad sign but expected imo. For example Endgame at this point had way higher OD sales than preview sales at MTC2. TROS will likely have a lower internal multi, so OD will overtake previews later. 

[Eric Prime]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	168	10,845	31,446	34.49%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 196

 

T-10 Comp

12.494x of It: Chapter Two 10 days before release (131.19M)

11.788x of Frozen II 10 days before release (100.2M)

 

T-10 Adjusted Comp

3.596x of Lion King 10 days before release (82.71M)

 

Final Count Comp

5.702x of Once Upon’s final count (33.07M)

3.131x of It: Chapter Two (32.87M)

2.209x of Joker (29.38M)

15.559x of Maleficent (35.79M)

12.451x of Terminator (29.26M)

3.227x of Frozen II (27.43M)

 

Final Count Adjusted Comp

0.962x of Lion King (22.13M)

4.565x of Hobbs & Shaw (26.48M)

 

@MrGlass2 said he wanted some T-X comps, and...yeah, fair enough. We're getting close to release. Of course, it's important to recognize that films like Frozen and even Lion King were at a much lower ticket count, so their gains are much larger and will lead to big drops in comps. So if, say Frozen goes from 100M to 95M tomorrow, it isn't because TROS is flopping. It's just that Frozen's gains are more substantial than TROS', because Frozen has fewer tickets to work with.

 

Oh yeah, and as for today...yeah it's good. Definitely wish it could have gotten to 200, but I guess barely missing it is better than nothing.

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	5	210	9798	24504	14706	60.01%

SELLOUT NOTE:  If a showing only has wheelchair and/or wheelchair companion seats left, it is counted as a sellout

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	1
Total Seats Sold Today	198

 

T-10 Adjusted Comp #1 (EXTREMELY LOL FOR CM - DON'T USE THERE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	333.40		128	4213		2/94	7555/11768	35.80%		69.01m
EG	74.94		141	18742		14/243	5843/24576	76.26%		44.97m
TROS (adj)	n/a		191	14046		5/210	9210/23256	60.40%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel and Endgame. 

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Endgame had 24 days of pre-sales.

 

T-10 Adjusted Comp #2

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Solo	359.66		47	3451		1/88	5935/9386	36.77%		50.71m
TROS (adj)	n/a		163	12412		5/210	6727/19139	64.85%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Solo.

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Infinity War had 42 days of pre-sales and Solo 21 days of pre-sales.

 

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals (spoilered for space)

Spoiler

of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
DP2	150.61		8133		12412		28.39m
Solo	211.59		5789		12412		30.23m
JW:FK	196.68		6228		12412		30.49m
AM&tW	265.99		4605		12412		31.00m
Venom	286.82		4493		13065		29.08m
CM	131.29		10553		14046		27.55m
EG	51.98		26655		14046		31.62m
TLK	126.22		10977		14046		29.43m
It 2	256.37		5659		14706		27.29m
AVG							29.45m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

 

===

 

No, I didn't forget to change the sellout/seat numbers.  Exact same increase in sellouts and seats sold as yesterday.  

 

Did end up removing IW as a day-to-day comp.  Maybe I'll bring it back, but probably not.  Think I'll keep CM though as it's a useful comp for over-performance in this market.  At least at final bell.

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

CM

131.29

 

10553

 

14046

 

27.55m

CM added 6300 seats in final 10 days. The current rate is 1.5x CM but its reducing fast obviously. I expect TROS will sold another 7.5-8k seats perhaps for 22.5k final against 10.5k of CM and 26.7k of EG, giving it range of 42-50mn from these two comps 😛 The adjusted comp in same theatres will be a bit down at $41-49mn. Mean of that being $45mn.

 

Adj Solo comp will be $46mn Approx.

 

Let's see if final result are in that direction.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

So T-10 Days.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_tFljn4mLbBwtXn2glN2PMA5XCy2ECBzaqo4QVVFYpM/edit#gid=0

Film added roughly $6.5mn in last 4 days, which is nice. Pre-sales are $68mn Approx and if pace is to go by shall be around $72-73mn T-7 Days, which is the first comp we have for Star Wars films.

[Moses]

So much data

What are expectations for opening weekend??

[Moses]

1 hour ago, Jedi Jat said:

So T-10 Days.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_tFljn4mLbBwtXn2glN2PMA5XCy2ECBzaqo4QVVFYpM/edit#gid=0

Film added roughly $6.5mn in last 4 days, which is nice. Pre-sales are $68mn Approx and if pace is to go by shall be around $72-73mn T-7 Days, which is the first comp we have for Star Wars films.

What were EG numbers at the same time?

Edited December 10, 2019 by Moses

[charlie Jatinder]

25 minutes ago, Moses said:

What were EG numbers at the same time?

No information. Will be around $108-109mn.

[Moses]

1 hour ago, Jedi Jat said:

No information. Will be around $108-109mn.

So can we expect a 200 millions opening?

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Moses said:

So can we expect a 200 millions opening?

$190mn.

[Lordmandeep]

Dont see any signs to it really out opening TLJ unless it is far more backloaded. 

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

11 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Dont see any signs to it really out opening TLJ unless it is far more backloaded. 

Sunday should be better percentage wise as all schools are gonna be out on Monday the 23rd. Small difference at the least

[StarWarsMemer]

What is the dollar to sold seats ratio in MTC 1

Edited December 10, 2019 by StarWarsMemer

[RockyMountain]

3 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

$190mn.

If reviews are good I think it very likely could be a 200m+ opener. If it looks to be borderline without reviews positive reviews will definitely help it get even higher.

[jedijake]

The Sunday hold will be interesting. Two Towers (2002) and Hobbit: DOS (2013) both had sub-20% drops on that Sunday (December 22) and had already been out for more than a weekend.

 

Likewise, the second weekend for TROS will be equally interesting. Both of those movies had very small drops. 

 

If WOM is decent, the drops SHOULD be very very small for a week at least (except Christmas Eve, BUT TFA only dropped 29% for Christmas eve).