The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[jedijake]

10 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Per my tracking, Previews have crossed $20mn T-9 Days. Will say it will almost double up. Still sticking to $37-40mn.

http://bit.ly/JatUSPS

Based  on the internal multipliers of TFA and TLJ, that would give TROS an OW of between $170-$185 million. Is that accurate?

[ThomasNicole]

Still expecting $ 41-42M previews and $ 190M or so OW

 

But i’ve been thinking, with Frozen didn’t reaching it’s full potencial, Jumanji coming for a hit but still very well under the last one, Cats without any hype... i’m even more inclined to expect at least 3.2x for TROS, competition is very weak. 

[charlie Jatinder]

58 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Based  on the internal multipliers of TFA and TLJ, that would give TROS an OW of between $170-$185 million. Is that accurate?

I won't read much into weekend multiple as TFA had anomaly in previews and TLJ was different calendar placement.

Despite $12mn less previews, TLJ True Friday was just $2.5mn lesser. Assuming Previews are $37-40mn, that will be $5-8mn, I expect OD to go down by similar amount at $48-52mn. The Saturday shall bump 10% to $57.5mn and much better hold on Sunday in low 10s.

Something of these sorts.

Spoiler

	SW:TFA		SW:TLJ		SW:TRS		SW:TRS
Previews	$57.00		$45.00		$40.00		$37.00
Friday	$62.12	8.98%	$59.68	32.62%	$52.00	30.00%	$48.47	31.00%
Saturday	$68.29	9.94%	$63.99	7.22%	$57.20	10.00%	$53.32	10.00%
Sunday	$60.55	-11.34%	$51.33	-19.78%	$50.34	-12.00%	$46.92	-12.00%
	$247.96		$220.00		$199.54		$185.71
Multi	4.35		4.89		4.99		5.02

 

Edited December 11, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[Legion Again]

Sun should be good, but 12% seems really aggressive    
 

I like that reasoning for F, Sat.

[Gavin Feng]

IMDb Most-Anticipated Movies of 2020*
“Birds of Prey: And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn” – Feb. 7
“Sonic the Hedgehog” – Feb. 14
“Top Gun: Maverick” – June 26
“No Time to Die” – April 10
“Black Widow” – May 1
“Mulan” – Mar. 27
“Wonder Woman 1984” – June 5
“Dune” – Dec. 18
“The King’s Man” – Sept. 18
“Fast & Furious 9” – May 22
 

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

IMDb Most-Anticipated Movies of 2020*
“Birds of Prey: And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn” – Feb. 7
“Sonic the Hedgehog” – Feb. 14
“Top Gun: Maverick” – June 26
“No Time to Die” – April 10
“Black Widow” – May 1
“Mulan” – Mar. 27
“Wonder Woman 1984” – June 5
“Dune” – Dec. 18
“The King’s Man” – Sept. 18
“Fast & Furious 9” – May 22
 

lol

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

IMDb Most-Anticipated Movies of 2020*
“Birds of Prey: And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn” – Feb. 7
“Sonic the Hedgehog” – Feb. 14
“Top Gun: Maverick” – June 26
“No Time to Die” – April 10
“Black Widow” – May 1
“Mulan” – Mar. 27
“Wonder Woman 1984” – June 5
“Dune” – Dec. 18
“The King’s Man” – Sept. 18
“Fast & Furious 9” – May 22
 

How the hell is Kingsman on this list. 

 

Edit: This is the same ranking that had Dark Phoenix at 3rd and Hellboy at 10th last year, lmao

Edited December 11, 2019 by Menor

[Legion Again]

Eternals under Sonic, book it.    
 

Spoiler

No but seriously, iirc imdb’s lists have had a lot less predictive value than som either “most antipated.” Fandango’s do a kind of decent job, I think?

 

[Legion Again]

Double post

Edited December 11, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, Jedi Jat said:

I won't read much into weekend multiple as TFA had anomaly in previews and TLJ was different calendar placement.

Despite $12mn less previews, TLJ True Friday was just $2.5mn lesser. Assuming Previews are $37-40mn, that will be $5-8mn, I expect OD to go down by similar amount at $48-52mn. The Saturday shall bump 10% to $57.5mn and much better hold on Sunday in low 10s.

Something of these sorts.

  Hide contents

 

	SW:TFA		SW:TLJ		SW:TRS		SW:TRS
Previews	$57.00		$45.00		$40.00		$37.00
Friday	$62.12	8.98%	$59.68	32.62%	$52.00	30.00%	$48.47	31.00%
Saturday	$68.29	9.94%	$63.99	7.22%	$57.20	10.00%	$53.32	10.00%
Sunday	$60.55	-11.34%	$51.33	-19.78%	$50.34	-12.00%	$46.92	-12.00%
	$247.96		$220.00		$199.54		$185.71
Multi	4.35		4.89		4.99		5.02

 

Bolded is why I think OD is gonna be lower than that if previews are just $40 million. TROS will have demand spread over weekdays so the previews to Friday bump could be less. 

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

No Tenet!?!

 

IMDB voters love Nolan.

Edited December 11, 2019 by EarlyDeadlinePredictions

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

Per my tracking, Previews have crossed $20mn T-9 Days. Will say it will almost double up. Still sticking to $37-40mn.

http://bit.ly/JatUSPS

I dont know how you do it.  I can say its doing super strong in smaller markets. At Austin Drafthouse all shows pre midnight have sold out and even 130AM shows are close to full. Unless we have numbers for all chains we cannot project. but MTC1 will under index for sure.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont know how you do it.  Unless we have numbers for all chains we cannot project. but MTC1 will under index for sure.

Simple. Its not the regular films I am comparing it with. Just SW and EG.

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Jedi Jat said:

Simple. Its not the regular films I am comparing it with. Just SW and EG.

We never had similar data for EG. May be Menor did for 1 MTC. So its still a guess.

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

We never had similar data for EG. May be Menor did for 1 MTC. So its still a guess.

We have Wang and trade reports. There is indeed  a lot of interpolation going on though.

[keysersoze123]

19 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

We have Wang and trade reports. There is indeed  a lot of interpolation going on though.

Did Wang ever break down sales by the day? I remember him giving lots of info for BP but not for EG.

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Did Wang ever break down sales by the day? I remember him giving lots of info for BP but not for EG.

Wang gave 3 or 4 reports for EG iirc, which was enough for Menor to establish a good correlation with Pulse and maybe MTC2 (I forget if they’d started that yet). 

[Lordmandeep]

Looking at presales its by far the strongest of the year apart from Endgame but dont see it doing much over TLJ and unsure if its over that. 

[cdsacken]

Everything is a guess. Some guesses are more accurate than others. Once Upon threw everyone for a loop. Endgame crushed trackers. Joker waffles between 10 million under tracking to finishing 6.5m above it.

[el sid]

Back from Saxony .
I think enough people are counting Jumanji 2 so I chose Richard Jewell.
Counted today at 11am EST (it has no Thursday showtimes):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes so far
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 23 (tickets sold for Friday, 4 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 25 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 16 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 1 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): showtimes): no showtimes so far
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): 6 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 83 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Bay Street): 15 (only 1 showtime)
LA (AMC Universal): 43 (4 showtimes)
Total tickets sold in 8 theaters till today for Friday: 212.
Comps: The Good Liar had at that time on Wednesday sold tickets 0/100, The Art of Racing in the Rain had 97/118, The Kitchen 0/374.
Not totally bad but still a bit lower than what I would have guessed. But I'm not sure if presales matter a lot in this case.

And TROS, also counted at 11 am EST (only one theater today but next week I will at least once count its performance in all 10 theaters and add the comps):
NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 601 (total tickets sold for Thursday, 8 showtimes) / 847 (total tickets sold for Friday, 14 showtimes).
Comps: It 2 had in this theater on Wednesday (= two days before its release) 472/509 sold tickets, TLK had on Wednesday also two days before it was released 882/1.160.
So TROS is already at 68 and 73% of TLK at the moment. I have no idea how much TROS could jump in the next 7 days but TLK numbers seem doable (no?). 

Edited December 11, 2019 by el sid