The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

For all the armchair critics who come into this thread only to mention MCU and SW are not comparable. Its ok to compare just previews as that is all Porthos is tracking. I dont think outside me anyone is tracking beyond previews. Goal is to get the previews right and then OW can be projected based on trends for that franchise.

 

Plus no one thinks Endgame OW is a target for this or any movie in the future for a LONG TIME.

[keysersoze123]

Other thing is I don’t think movies with smaller previews are comparable. Take even Joker. While I did not do full MTC tracking before release. I did post area level numbers and that was all over the place. NY/LA/DC areas were super strong while rest of the country did ok but not anywhere close. Its worse when you look at movies with smaller previews. only SW and IW/Endgame have had strong PS across the country and so previews can be compared only with those movies. That is why I am tracking how Porthos’s relative comparisons are moving.

[charlie Jatinder]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

MCU and SW are not comparable

Well for one, Endgame in Sacramento had a range of $53-66mn for previews. That's a big range, with most comps in lower side. Different regions work differently and if MTC 1 and MTC 2 data is to go by, Thursday hasn't cleared $20mn yet and Sacramento is suggesting $25-30mn sales already in various comps.

 

As to MCU and SW not being comparable, that is in fact true as a franchise may overperform in certain region and underperform in other. The best comp for TRS will be TLJ and Solo.

[narniadis]

Solo is a good comp only if one is either wanting to see it bomb or be assured its opening better.... that films behavior overall makes it an odd comp for any film, let alone TROS. 

[Poseidon]

5 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Solo is a good comp only if one is either wanting to see it bomb or be assured its opening better.... that films behavior overall makes it an odd comp for any film, let alone TROS. 

 

Wasn't that one quite in line with other SW Movies? 

 

Preview to OD for recent SW Movies:

Solo 6,0 (Sunday boosted. With a normal Sunday would have been more like 5,5)
TLJ 4,9
Rogue One 5,3

TFA 4,4

[lorddemaxus]

12 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Solo is a good comp only if one is either wanting to see it bomb or be assured its opening better.... that films behavior overall makes it an odd comp for any film, let alone TROS. 

A presales heavy film isn't a good comp for another presales heavy film from the same franchise? 

Edited December 9, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[charlie Jatinder]

14 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Solo is a good comp only if one is either wanting to see it bomb or be assured its opening better.... that films behavior overall makes it an odd comp for any film, let alone TROS. 

A comp as in it will do better in areas where Star Wars cater well.

[narniadis]

11 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

A presales heavy film isn't a good comp for another presales heavy film from the same franchise? 

Yes and no, as was discussed a lot here in this thread alone, the presales didnt go up as they should have the week of release. In all actuality it was presales heavier / or not depending on your definition (imo) than any of the rest and its legs didnt make up for lack of pre release interest. 

 

As I said, and as Jedi agreed, its a comp that works if you want to make sure its not performing as badly as the worst peformer in the mix. Time of year also makes a difference but that is not news. 

Edited December 9, 2019 by narniadis

[John Marston]

presales should be higher than TLJ since it opens closer to holidays. If it is not that isn't really good

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

presales should be higher than TLJ since it opens closer to holidays. If it is not that isn't really good

If you open a bit before, you have pre-sales for both the first weekend and for more holidays date at the same time in the pre-sales too no ?

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

If you open a bit before, you have pre-sales for both the first weekend and for more holidays date at the same time in the pre-sales too no ?

He's talking about total ps including weekdays, TROS will have big time Christmas-adjacent sales which TLJ would not have as its Day 6 for TROS vs Day 11 (post 2nd weekend) for TLJ.

25 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Yes and no, as was discussed a lot here in this thread alone, the presales didnt go up as they should have the week of release. In all actuality it was presales heavier / or not depending on your definition (imo) than any of the rest and its legs didnt make up for lack of pre release interest. 

 

As I said, and as Jedi agreed, its a comp that works if you want to make sure its not performing as badly as the worst peformer in the mix. Time of year also makes a difference but that is not news. 

Do we really know how it should have behaved? I wasn't around for TLJ tracking, did we have any sort of detailed daily updates to compare that film's release week bump to Solo? Because I'm wondering if SW is just the type of franchise that isn't gonna have a huge bump in release week because fans are buying like crazy ahead of time, drying up possible demand.

Edited December 9, 2019 by Menor

[narniadis]

45 minutes ago, Menor said:

He's talking about total ps including weekdays, TROS will have big time Christmas-adjacent sales which TLJ would not have as its Day 6 for TROS vs Day 11 (post 2nd weekend) for TLJ.

Do we really know how it should have behaved? I wasn't around for TLJ tracking, did we have any sort of detailed daily updates to compare that film's release week bump to Solo? Because I'm wondering if SW is just the type of franchise that isn't gonna have a huge bump in release week because fans are buying like crazy ahead of time, drying up possible demand.

True, a perspective I hadnt thought of. Solo was the first one that had the detailed presales such as yall have done, but it behaved so abnormally that there was reason to assume it shorted itself. 

That all being said, we will have an answer just a week or so from now. I would assume from even internal sources (I think Shawn even mentioned it in passing if my poor memory serves) though that it just didnt behave as expected but the reason for it was more unknown. Attempting to avoid TLJ being so bad it hurt debate.

[keysersoze123]

14 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

SW9 (T-11)

MTC1 Prev - overall 5155 shows 334059/859712 4977678.19  +4976
MTC2 Prev - overall 3093 shows 221490/451563 2804730.00 +3318
MTC1 OD - overall 5368 shows 249370/1094552 3873060.63 +16338 ( 3 days)
MTC2 OD - overall 4369 shows 187686/715555 2100107.00 +12102 ( 3 days)

 

Good acceleration from yesterday. Should definitely go over 5K tomorrow at MTC1. Hopefully closer to 6K. I ideally wanted to run entire weekend but the scrapper has been really slow. So just updated OD as well. Excellent increase over past 3 days. As expected pace is stronger than preview sales over past 3 days.

The rest of the weekend

SW9

MTC1 D2 - overall 5307 shows 212283/1084629 3121576.96 +20195
MTC2 D2 - overall 4510 shows 160489/740203 1734639.00 +18897
MTC1 D3 -  overall 5139 shows 120312/1050308 1764004.96 +15177
MTC2 D3 - overall 4449 shows 86498/732783 903016.00 +14358

 

Under 4 days of PS since my update on thursday evening. Really good and Day 2 PS run rate is ahead of Day 1 PS at this point. Day 3 PS is also getting stronger now.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

Do we really know how it should have behaved? I wasn't around for TLJ tracking, did we have any sort of detailed daily updates to compare that film's release week bump to Solo? Because I'm wondering if SW is just the type of franchise that isn't gonna have a huge bump in release week because fans are buying like crazy ahead of time, drying up possible demand.

EmpireCity expected a strong week of release pre-sales for Solo and when it didn't materialize he then hit the "Alright, yeah, it's gonna bomb" button.

 

FWIW, from what I remember of tracking sellouts, TLJ accelerated its week of release as well, though I'd have to go back into the thread and really analyze the info we had (we did have Pulse at the time, though not akvalley).

[Krissykins]

Nothing for Black Christmas yet?

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1797

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1816

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
9551	141	22870	41.76%	9	182

 

Final Frozen 2 count comp: 23.18M

Final Maleficent count comp: 27.09M

Final IT 2 count comp: 25.83M

Final Hobbs count comp: 27M

Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 27.64M

Final Lion King count comp: 28.95M

 

Average: 26.62M

 

This is a great jump, but keep in mind that I had to count about 3 hours earlier than usual yesterday. So this is 27 hours vs yesterday's 21.

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1813

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1830

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
9667	116	22870	42.27%	9	182

 

Final Frozen 2 count comp: 23.46M

Final Maleficent count comp: 27.42M

Final IT 2 count comp: 26.14M

Final Hobbs count comp: 27.32M

Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 27.99M

Final Lion King count comp: 29.31M

 

Average: 26.94M

[Ryan Reynolds]

2 hours ago, John Marston said:

presales should be higher than TLJ since it opens closer to holidays. If it is not that isn't really good

The weekend can be muted too as people are doing last minute shopping and holiday parties 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Jumanji: The Next Level Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

89

1686

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

94

1610

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
313	40	11405	2.74%	9	58

 

Frozen 2 comp: 1.56M

Terminator comp: 3.87M

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 2.86M

Adjusted Zombieland 2 comp: 2.73M

Adjusted Gemini Man comp: 2.42M

Hobbs comp: 4M

Lion King comp: 2.16M

 

Same thing as TRoS, this is 27 hours vs yesterday's 21 hours. Probably not a good thing that most of the comps are pretty flat from yesterday. I would've liked to have seen some more movement upwards

Jumanji: The Next Level Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

106

1686

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

99

1610

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
365	52	11405	3.20%	9	58

 

Frozen 2 comp: 1.65M

Terminator comp: 3.83M

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 2.79M

Adjusted Zombieland 2 comp: 2.57M

Adjusted Gemini Man comp: 2.64M

Hobbs comp: 3.89M

Lion King comp: 2.24M

[ZackM]

Jumanji: The Next Level Various theater chains (Michigan) Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	0	0	0	0
Seats Added	104	0	0	0	0
Seats Sold	58	59	33	17	42
12/9/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	98	20,440	21,026	586	2.79%

[keysersoze123]

On 12/8/2019 at 8:08 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Jumanji 2 Previews (T-4)

MTC1 Prev - overall 1568 shows 14105/334199 241387.45 +2686
MTC2 Prev - overall 2673 shows 7650/436175 95454.00 +1280

 

Definitely accelerating at MTC1 after a slow day yesterday. let us hope for the pace to increase even more starting tomorrow.

Jumanji 2 Previews (T-3)

MTC1 Prev - overall 1572 shows 17241/335217 293170.48 +3136
MTC2 Prev - overall 2661 shows 9619/434503 119634.00 84679.00 +1969

 

Slight acceleration at MTC1 and good one at MTC2. I am expecting huge ramp up starting wednesday. I think 3x this number can happen.