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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Wang gave 3 or 4 reports for EG iirc, which was enough for Menor to establish a good correlation with Pulse and maybe MTC2 (I forget if they’d started that yet). 

I ran MTC2 twice for Endgame. But the daily splits differ between chains. Charlie from what I remember has historical data of what chains did what percentage of Thursday BO and I assume that is what he is using to extrapolate.

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narniadis Blockbuster

narniadis

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Variety with:

45-55 J3 (studio projecting 35)

10-12 BC

10 RJ  

 

https://variety.com/2019/film/box-office/box-office-jumanji-the-next-level-richard-jewell-opening-weekend-1203431336/

I would love to know who the bullish predictors are with 60m.... not even bop is that bullish. 

Would love to see it happen, just dont see how it can. 

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 1834 3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 1847 3926

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
9828 161 23331 42.12% 9 191

 

Showings added: 9

Seats added: 461

 

Final Frozen 2 count comp: 23.85M

Final Maleficent count comp: 27.87M

Final IT 2 count comp: 26.58M

Final Hobbs count comp: 27.78M

Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 28.48M

Final Lion King count comp: 29.79M

 

Average: 27.39M

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 1859 3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 1877 3926

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
10044 216 23331 43.05% 9 191

 

Final Frozen 2 count comp: 24.38M

Final Maleficent count comp: 28.48M

Final IT 2 count comp: 27.16M

Final Hobbs count comp: 28.39M

Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 29.15M

Final Lion King count comp: 30.45M

 

Average: 28M

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Jamiem Box Office Gold

Jamiem

Posted
Posted

Well I fully expect TROS to outsell TLK at my local theatre for opening day now. Copied from myself in the NZ thread:

 

So you guys may have noticed that no films have had the big theatres for their shows for the last couple of movies, well I just found out why. They have added VMAX (a baby version of IMAX) with recliner seats and daybeds and it seems like they are launching it with The Rise of Skywalker. So that’s 2 additional midnight screenings and a total of 10 additional opening day. 

 

Ticket prices are $23 for regular seat, 27.50 for recliner and $30 for single daybed and $60 for double, this should help the average ticket price here in Albany and has added a bunch of seats of the opening day and weekend. 

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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted

NYC Local

 

NYC Local Mon   Tues   Wed   Thur   Previews Preview Start
Jumanji 2 72/1864 (4pm) 120/3381 (5:30pm) 141/3381 (5:30pm)       4:00 PM
Black Christmas 22/512 (4pm) 24/512 (5:30pm) 24/512 (5:30pm)       7:00 PM

 

COMPS WED

 

TLK: $7.30m (6pm)

Joker: $3.45m (4pm)

Hobbs & Shaw: $4.52m (7pm)

Frozen: $5.76m (6pm)

 

Weak Wed sales has it dropping against all comps - most notably H & S - probably it's best comp.


Full chart under cut

 

Spoiler


 

NYC Local Mon   Tues   Wed   Thur   Previews Preview Start
Shazam!         129/2229 (Afternoon) 187/2229 (3:30pm) $5.9m 4:00 PM
Avengers: Endgame 3948/4,736 (12am)     4,853/5493 (9pm)     $60m 6:00 PM
Aladdin     98/1242 (12pm)         $7m 6:00 PM
Godzilla 2         135/1915 (7:45pm) 204/2150 (3:30pm) $6.3m 4:00 PM
X-Men: DP     103/942 (4pm) 209/942 (3:15pm) 272/942 (3:45pm) $5m 6:00 PM
SLOP 2     38/771 (4pm) 43/771 (3:15pm)     $2.3m 6:00 PM
Toy Story 4     165/2049 (4pm) 233/2049 (7:40pm)     $12m 6:00 PM
SM:FFH 142/922               $2.8m Midnights 
The Lion King 236/3228 (6:30pm) 294/3228 (6:20pm) 444/3228 (4:30pm) 557/3228 (4:30pm) $23m 6:00 PM
OUATIH     117/1179 (2:15pm) 159/1179 (4pm) 335/1179 (4:20pm) $5.8m 4:00 PM
Hobbs & Shaw 60/1543 (5:20pm)     181/1543 (4pm)     $5.8m 7:00 PM
IT Part 2 147/2764 (9am)     239/2764 (7:10pm)     $10.5m 5:00 PM
Hustlers     45/512 (4:30pm)   (4:30pm)   (4:30pm) $2.5m 6:00 PM
Downton Abbey (eps)     37/301 (4:30pm)   (4:30pm)   (4:30pm) $2.2m 7:00 PM
Ad Astra     26/602 (4:30pm) 26/602 (4:30pm) 41/602 (4:30pm) $1.5m 6:00 PM
Downton Abbey     31/512 (4:30pm) 39/512 (4:30pm) 52/1015 (4:30pm) $2.1m 7:00 PM
Rambo     29/302 (4:30pm) 53/1242 (4:30pm) 58/1242 (4:30pm) $1.3m 6:00 PM
Abominable     30/255 (4:30pm)   (4:30pm) 73/1969 (4:30pm) $.65m 6:00 PM
Joker (-1 week) 104/2766 (9am) 172/2766 (4:30pm)     217/3536 (4pm)   4:00 PM
Joker 328/3536 (4:20pm) 399/3536 (4pm) 542/3536 (4pm) 760/3741 (3:45pm) $13.3m 4:00 PM
Gemini Man     38/1004 (4pm) 38/1004 (4pm) 78/1004 [6:30pm] $1.55m 7:00 PM
Adams Family   (4pm) 53/1373 (4pm) 49/1373 (4pm)     $1.25m 4:00 PM
Maleficent 2 39/1154 (4pm) 42/1154 (4pm) 53/1154 (4pm) 96/1425 [6pm] $2.3m 7:00 PM
Zombieland 2 51/1114 (4pm) 53/1114 (4pm) 67/1177 (4pm) 95/1478 [6pm] $2.85m 7:00 PM
Black & Blue     19/410 (4pm)     20/410 (4pm) $.68m 7:00 PM
Countdown     15/511 (4pm)     19/411 (4pm) $.52m 7:00 PM
Terminator: DF 71/1242 (4pm) 71/1242 (4pm) 76/1242 (5:30pm) 113/1242 (4pm) $2.35m 7:00 PM
Harriet 25/512 (4pm) 25/512 (4pm) 27/512 (5:30pm) 29/512 (4pm) $.6m 7:00 PM
Midway 20/512 (4pm) 23/512 (4pm) 22/512 (4:30pm) 27/512 (5pm) $.925m 7:00 PM
Dr Sleep 23/510 (4pm) 28/510 (4pm) 28/510 (4:30pm) 53/512 (5pm) $1.5m 6:00 PM
Last Christmas 12/496 (4pm) 12/496 (4pm) 12/496 (4:30pm) 16/496 (5pm) $.575m 7:00 PM
Playing With Fire 15/654 (4pm) 15/654 (4pm) 15/654 (4:30pm) 18/654 (4pm)   4:00 PM
Ford v Ferrari 50/1152 (4pm) 48/1152 (4pm) 53/1152 (4pm) 65/1152 (5:30pm) $2.1m 6:00 PM
Charlies Angels 18/903 (4pm) 18/903 (4pm) 18/903 (4pm) 20/903 (4pm) $.9m 4:00 PM
Frozen 122/1824 (4pm) 169/ 2724 (4pm) 208/ 2724 (4:30pm) 304/2274 (4:30pm) $8.5m 6:00 PM
A Beautiful Day ... 30/768 (4pm) 30/768 (4pm) 36/768 (4:30pm) 52/768 (4:30pm) $.9m 6:00 PM
21 Bridges 26/492 (4pm) 25/492 (4pm) 30/492 (4:30pm) 44/492 (4:30pm) $.7m 7:00 PM
Knives Out (F&S eps) 42/514 (4pm) 53/514 (4pm) 67/514 (4:30pm) 85/514 (4:30pm) $2.03m 7:00 PM
Knives Out (Wed) 42/937 (4pm) 81/937 (5:30pm)           7:00 PM
Jumanji 2 72/1864 (4pm) 120/3381 (5:30pm) 141/3381 (5:30pm)       4:00 PM
Black Christmas 22/512 (4pm) 24/512 (5:30pm) 24/512 (5:30pm)       7:00 PM

 

 
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Jumanji: The Next Level Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 122 1686

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 116 1769

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
452 87 11848 3.81% 9 63

 

Showings added: 5

Seats added: 443

 

Frozen 2 comp: 1.86M

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 2.85M

Adjusted Zombieland 2 comp: 2.45M

Adjusted Gemini Man comp: 2.93M

Hobbs comp: 4.17M

Lion King comp: 2.38M

Jumanji: The Next Level Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 159 2084

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 148 1769

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
599 147 12246 4.89% 9 70

 

Showings added: 7

Seats added: 398

 

Frozen 2 comp: 2.13M

Terminator comp: 4.24M

Maleficent comp: 5.07M

Zombieland 2 comp: 3.74M

Gemini Man comp: 5.21M

Hobbs comp: 3.86M

Lion King comp: 2.70M

 

Big bumps today partially due to some comps no longer being adjusted. It'll be interesting to see where this ends up tomorrow, but don't be surprised if I boot half of these comps.

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted

I unfortunately dont have time to do full analysis of Jumanji weekend with so many other things happening. But quick check for MTC1 OD shows the movie should have solid friday. Its OD PS is at 29904/810197 (4152 shows). I am expecting PS to hit at least 60K and with good walkins should comfortably cross double digit friday(minus previews). It probably needs mid teens OD to hit 50m OW. I think its possible with the kind of walkins I am expecting for this movie.

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Boxofficerules Box Office Gold

Boxofficerules

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

NYC Local

 

NYC Local Mon   Tues   Wed   Thur   Previews Preview Start
Jumanji 2 72/1864 (4pm) 120/3381 (5:30pm) 141/3381 (5:30pm)       4:00 PM
Black Christmas 22/512 (4pm) 24/512 (5:30pm) 24/512 (5:30pm)       7:00 PM

 

COMPS WED

 

TLK: $7.30m (6pm)

Joker: $3.45m (4pm)

Hobbs & Shaw: $4.52m (7pm)

Frozen: $5.76m (6pm)

 

Weak Wed sales has it dropping against all comps - most notably H & S - probably it's best comp.


Full chart under cut

 

  Reveal hidden contents
NYC Local Mon   Tues   Wed   Thur   Previews Preview Start
Shazam!         129/2229 (Afternoon) 187/2229 (3:30pm) $5.9m 4:00 PM
Avengers: Endgame 3948/4,736 (12am)     4,853/5493 (9pm)     $60m 6:00 PM
Aladdin     98/1242 (12pm)         $7m 6:00 PM
Godzilla 2         135/1915 (7:45pm) 204/2150 (3:30pm) $6.3m 4:00 PM
X-Men: DP     103/942 (4pm) 209/942 (3:15pm) 272/942 (3:45pm) $5m 6:00 PM
SLOP 2     38/771 (4pm) 43/771 (3:15pm)     $2.3m 6:00 PM
Toy Story 4     165/2049 (4pm) 233/2049 (7:40pm)     $12m 6:00 PM
SM:FFH 142/922               $2.8m Midnights 
The Lion King 236/3228 (6:30pm) 294/3228 (6:20pm) 444/3228 (4:30pm) 557/3228 (4:30pm) $23m 6:00 PM
OUATIH     117/1179 (2:15pm) 159/1179 (4pm) 335/1179 (4:20pm) $5.8m 4:00 PM
Hobbs & Shaw 60/1543 (5:20pm)     181/1543 (4pm)     $5.8m 7:00 PM
IT Part 2 147/2764 (9am)     239/2764 (7:10pm)     $10.5m 5:00 PM
Hustlers     45/512 (4:30pm)   (4:30pm)   (4:30pm) $2.5m 6:00 PM
Downton Abbey (eps)     37/301 (4:30pm)   (4:30pm)   (4:30pm) $2.2m 7:00 PM
Ad Astra     26/602 (4:30pm) 26/602 (4:30pm) 41/602 (4:30pm) $1.5m 6:00 PM
Downton Abbey     31/512 (4:30pm) 39/512 (4:30pm) 52/1015 (4:30pm) $2.1m 7:00 PM
Rambo     29/302 (4:30pm) 53/1242 (4:30pm) 58/1242 (4:30pm) $1.3m 6:00 PM
Abominable     30/255 (4:30pm)   (4:30pm) 73/1969 (4:30pm) $.65m 6:00 PM
Joker (-1 week) 104/2766 (9am) 172/2766 (4:30pm)     217/3536 (4pm)   4:00 PM
Joker 328/3536 (4:20pm) 399/3536 (4pm) 542/3536 (4pm) 760/3741 (3:45pm) $13.3m 4:00 PM
Gemini Man     38/1004 (4pm) 38/1004 (4pm) 78/1004 [6:30pm] $1.55m 7:00 PM
Adams Family   (4pm) 53/1373 (4pm) 49/1373 (4pm)     $1.25m 4:00 PM
Maleficent 2 39/1154 (4pm) 42/1154 (4pm) 53/1154 (4pm) 96/1425 [6pm] $2.3m 7:00 PM
Zombieland 2 51/1114 (4pm) 53/1114 (4pm) 67/1177 (4pm) 95/1478 [6pm] $2.85m 7:00 PM
Black & Blue     19/410 (4pm)     20/410 (4pm) $.68m 7:00 PM
Countdown     15/511 (4pm)     19/411 (4pm) $.52m 7:00 PM
Terminator: DF 71/1242 (4pm) 71/1242 (4pm) 76/1242 (5:30pm) 113/1242 (4pm) $2.35m 7:00 PM
Harriet 25/512 (4pm) 25/512 (4pm) 27/512 (5:30pm) 29/512 (4pm) $.6m 7:00 PM
Midway 20/512 (4pm) 23/512 (4pm) 22/512 (4:30pm) 27/512 (5pm) $.925m 7:00 PM
Dr Sleep 23/510 (4pm) 28/510 (4pm) 28/510 (4:30pm) 53/512 (5pm) $1.5m 6:00 PM
Last Christmas 12/496 (4pm) 12/496 (4pm) 12/496 (4:30pm) 16/496 (5pm) $.575m 7:00 PM
Playing With Fire 15/654 (4pm) 15/654 (4pm) 15/654 (4:30pm) 18/654 (4pm)   4:00 PM
Ford v Ferrari 50/1152 (4pm) 48/1152 (4pm) 53/1152 (4pm) 65/1152 (5:30pm) $2.1m 6:00 PM
Charlies Angels 18/903 (4pm) 18/903 (4pm) 18/903 (4pm) 20/903 (4pm) $.9m 4:00 PM
Frozen 122/1824 (4pm) 169/ 2724 (4pm) 208/ 2724 (4:30pm) 304/2274 (4:30pm) $8.5m 6:00 PM
A Beautiful Day ... 30/768 (4pm) 30/768 (4pm) 36/768 (4:30pm) 52/768 (4:30pm) $.9m 6:00 PM
21 Bridges 26/492 (4pm) 25/492 (4pm) 30/492 (4:30pm) 44/492 (4:30pm) $.7m 7:00 PM
Knives Out (F&S eps) 42/514 (4pm) 53/514 (4pm) 67/514 (4:30pm) 85/514 (4:30pm) $2.03m 7:00 PM
Knives Out (Wed) 42/937 (4pm) 81/937 (5:30pm)           7:00 PM
Jumanji 2 72/1864 (4pm) 120/3381 (5:30pm) 141/3381 (5:30pm)       4:00 PM
Black Christmas 22/512 (4pm) 24/512 (5:30pm) 24/512 (5:30pm)       7:00 PM

 

 

I don’t get this, does this mean Black Christmas sold 22 tickets on Monday, 24 on Tuesday and another 24 on Wednesday?

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XXR vs XXR Global Phenomenon

XXR vs XXR

Posted
Posted

Star Wars: TROS -- AMC Willowbrook 24 -- 6:00pm CST -- 8 Days to Previews  

 

 

Dolby Cinema
07:00pm: 205/205 -- SOLD OUT 

10:40pm: 148/205

02:15am: 16/205 

 

IMAX / IMAX 3D

06:00pm: 125/151 

09:40pm: 105/151 

01:20am: 14/151

 

Real 3D

06:00pm: 23/125 

06:20pm: 4/76

06:25pm: 10/76

06:30pm: 5/76 

06:45pm: 10/60

07:00pm: 17/60

07:15pm: 16/60

09:45pm: 0/125

10:05pm: 0/76

10:10pm: 0/76

10:30pm: 2/76

10:40pm: 0/60

10:50pm: 0/60

11:10pm: 0/60

01:45am: 0/76

 

Digital 

06:00pm: 104/147

06:15pm: 46/60

07:30pm: 42/60

07:45pm: 21/44 

08:00pm: 19/44

08:15pm: 20/44

08:45pm: 76/125

09:50pm: 56/147

09:55pm: 16/76

10:00pm: 18/76

11:25pm: 2/44

11:40pm: 0/44

11:55pm: 0/44

12:25am: 3/125

1:30am: 6/147

1:40am: 0/76

 

Fan Event

05:00pm: 100/125

 

 

TOTAL

1229 tickets sold out of 3638 seats available (33.78%)

 

 

 

Comps to Final Tracked Numbers

Captain Marvel = 1440 sold @ 5:30pm - Thursday

Avengers: Endgame = 3623 sold @ 5:30pm - Thursday 

Toy Story 4 = 822 sold @ 3:00pm - Thursday 

The Lion King = 1570 sold @ 4:00pm - Thursday

Joker = 659 sold @ 3:00pm - Thursday

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Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

I don’t get this, does this mean Black Christmas sold 22 tickets on Monday, 24 on Tuesday and another 24 on Wednesday?

Nah, cumulatively. Had sold a total of 22 by end of Monday, 2 on Tuesday, 0 on Wednesday.

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Jamiem Box Office Gold

Jamiem

Posted
Posted

Update from my post before just in case anyone w acts he hard numbers, seems like The Rise of Skywalker is going to be HUGE at my local cinema all the way here in little New Zealand. 

 

Albany Event Cinemas (New Zealand) -Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker  opening day (Thur 19/12/2019)Just under a week before release vs 3 days/12 hours to release of other films. 

 

0:01am  154/216

0:01am 145/216

0:01am 147/216

0:01am VMAX 9/185

0:01am VMAX 9/133

0:01am GC 40/40

0:01am GC 30/30

9:00am 21/216

9:50am VMAX 4/133

10:20am 15/216

10:30am GC 24/30 

11:00am 15/216

11:20am GC 23/40 

11:20am VMAX 4/185

12:20pm 15/216

1:00pm VMAX 4/133

1:40pm 21/216

1:50pm GC 19/30

2:20pm 3D 22/216

2:30pm VMAX 4/185

2:40pm GC 3D 24/40 

3:40pm 16/216

4:15pm VMAX 4/133

5:00pm 40/216

5:10pm GC 30/30

5:50pm VMAX 4/185

7:00pm 127/216

7:30pm VMAX 4/133

8:20pm 96/216

8:30pm GC 29/30

9:00pm VMAX 4/185

9.20pm 18/216

9.20pm GC 39/40 

10.20pm 11/216

 

Total  1171/5140 (22.78%) 

 

VMAX sessions added a bunch of seats so percentage cake down but I expect them to fill up quite quickly once word gets out that they exist. I fully expect this to outsell TLK before its release now although I highly doubt the film will be as walk up friendly throughout the weekend. 

 

All else I can say is this is going to be a monster here in Albany. 

 

Comps

 

TLK 

 

Compared 3 days before 926/5338 (17.34%) = $6.46m

Compared 12 hours before 1831/5554(32.96%) = $3.27m

 

Frozen II

 

3 Days Before 398/2230 (17.85%) = $4.68m

12 Hours Before 670/2572 (26.05%) =$2.78m

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ZackM Box Office Gold

ZackM

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, jedijake said:

TROS sitting at 30-35% in most places seems rather low, right? I mean- a week before release?

 

If only Sacramento could represent everywhere.

You gotta stop putting so much stock in the percentages.  Did you see the numbers I posted yesterday?  It was BY FAR the biggest day of sales since I've been tracking.  But in spite of that the percentage of tickets sold went DOWN because so many new seats had been added to meet the demand.

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jedijake Box Office Gold

jedijake

Posted
Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, ZackM said:

You gotta stop putting so much stock in the percentages.  Did you see the numbers I posted yesterday?  It was BY FAR the biggest day of sales since I've been tracking.  But in spite of that the percentage of tickets sold went DOWN because so many new seats had been added to meet the demand.

I can't. Percentages percentages, they're everywhere! They haunt my dreams! They speak to me in little voices. They guide my every move!

 

Btw, does anyone want to take a stab at how many theaters TROS will open in? I'd say around 4600?

Edited by jedijake
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ZackM Box Office Gold

ZackM

Posted
Posted

Final numbers for Jumanji Previews.

 

Jumanji: The Next Level
Various theater chains (Michigan)
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 days and counting
           
  Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 1 11 0 0 0
Seats Added 130 1,079 104 0 0
Seats Sold 202 101 58 59 33
           
12/11/2019 Showings Seats Left Total Seats Seats Sold Pct. Sold
Total 110 21,346 22,235 889 4.00%
           
% of Seats Sold Sellouts 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 0 0 0 0 0
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