The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

Have to account for 2 years growth in presales though.

 

Not from Endgame.

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

Have to account for 2 years growth in presales though.

TBF I be the rate of SW PS growth is way less than normal PS growth.

Edited December 14, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Not from Endgame.

Even with Endgame the PS behavior was different from a December SW, it had similar PS heaviness despite it's total PS being so much higher.

 

3 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

TBF I be the rate of SW PS growth is way less than normal PS growth.

I mean we still have a ton of theaters that have switched to reserved seating in that time, that's gonna increase PS for any film.

[a2k]

2 hours ago, RockyMountain said:

 Heck even though people say Marvel is on top of the world right now it only had consistent 200m+ openings for the Avengers movies and the one or two movies leading up to the Avengers movies.

Only?

 

No other franchise has had 4 200+ openings / 5 190+ openings.

SW will try to make it to 3 200+ openings in a few days.

 

Only franchise with 2 250+ openings / 1 350+ opening. Don't know when this will get beat.

 

Can't get more consistent than this imo with such big numbers:

208 TA1 2012

174 IM3 2013

191 TA2 2015

179 CW 2016

202 BP 2018

258 TA3 2018 

357 TA4 2019

Edited December 14, 2019 by a2k
Forgot BP :p

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, a2k said:

No other franchise has had 3 200+ openings / 4 190+ openings. SW will try to make it in a few days.

Only franchise with 2 250+ openings / 1 350+ opening. Don't know when this will get beat.

 

Can't get more consistent than this imo with such big numbers:

208 TA1 2012

174 IM3 2013

191 TA2 2015

179 CW 2016

258 TA3 2018 

357 TA4 2019

Love how this look so impressive even though you forgot their 4th 200M+ 
 

Also IM2 OW was 5th best at the time, same as CW and BP. 8/23 OWs that were top 5, 5/23 that were top 2.

Edited December 14, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[XXR vs XXR]

 

So at my theater, from this point forward in their run, The Lion King sold another 940 tickets. Endgame sold 681 more. I assume the breakdown of adults/kids, PLF/regular, and 3D/2D will be more in line with Endgame than TLK. Using that, here is the additional tickets sold / estimated previews number....

+ 700 = $33 million 

+ 800 = $34.8 million

+ 900 = $36.5 million
+ 1000 = $38.1 million

+ 1100 = $39.8 million

+ 1200 = $41.5 million 

 

I do think it will sell more than Endgame going forward, just due to the the fact that Endgame had so much volume filled in early on, but I'm not sure that it will catch TLK. Star Wars is already very PS heavy. With all that being said, I'm starting to think it's quite possible we come in at $36-$37 million for this. An opening weekend right around Black Panther would be in the cards if that happens. 

[Eric Duncan]

2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

So at my theater, from this point forward in their run, The Lion King sold another 940 tickets. Endgame sold 681 more. I assume the breakdown of adults/kids, PLF/regular, and 3D/2D will be more in line with Endgame than TLK. Using that, here is the additional tickets sold / estimated previews number....

+ 700 = $33 million 

+ 800 = $34.8 million

+ 900 = $36.5 million
+ 1000 = $38.1 million

+ 1100 = $39.8 million

+ 1200 = $41.5 million 

 

I do think it will sell more than Endgame going forward, just due to the the fact that Endgame had so much volume filled in early on, but I'm not sure that it will catch TLK. Star Wars is already very PS heavy. With all that being said, I'm starting to think it's quite possible we come in at $36-$37 million for this. An opening weekend right around Black Panther would be in the cards if that happens. 

That would mean its IM would be stronger than Rogue One. Sorry, don't see it.

[a2k]

4 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

So at my theater, from this point forward in their run, The Lion King sold another 940 tickets. Endgame sold 681 more. I assume the breakdown of adults/kids, PLF/regular, and 3D/2D will be more in line with Endgame than TLK. Using that, here is the additional tickets sold / estimated previews number....

+ 700 = $33 million 

+ 800 = $34.8 million

+ 900 = $36.5 million
+ 1000 = $38.1 million

+ 1100 = $39.8 million

+ 1200 = $41.5 million 

 

I do think it will sell more than Endgame going forward, just due to the the fact that Endgame had so much volume filled in early on, but I'm not sure that it will catch TLK. Star Wars is already very PS heavy. With all that being said, I'm starting to think it's quite possible we come in at $36-$37 million for this. An opening weekend right around Black Panther would be in the cards if that happens. 

not much more than 185 ow with 36-37 imo. ~5x previews.

[XXR vs XXR]

7 minutes ago, Eric loves Rey said:

That would mean its IM would be stronger than Rogue One. Sorry, don't see it.

 

6 minutes ago, a2k said:

not much more than 185 ow with 36-37 imo. ~5x previews.

R1 did 4.35x previews for FSS and TROS is coming out when all schools will be off on Monday for the holiday break. The Sunday hold will be better than R1, TLJ or TFA. Hell, true Friday should be the strongest yet (in terms of ratios) for any of the 4 since a lot of schools will start being off next week as well. 

 

[FlashMaster659]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	5	261	17701	54592	36891	32.42%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today: 1

Total Showings Added Today: 5

Total Seats Added Today: 772

Total Seats Sold Today: 470

 

Comps so far off of Final Totals of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
Joker	210.20		8421		17701		27.96m
Frozen 2	274.01		6460		17701		23.29m

 

 

[Eric Duncan]

4 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

R1 did 4.35x previews for FSS and TROS is coming out when all schools will be off on Monday for the holiday break. The Sunday hold will be better than R1, TLJ or TFA. Hell, true Friday should be the strongest yet (in terms of ratios) for any of the 4 since a lot of schools will start being off next week as well. 

 

Rogue One had 29M previews and went to 155M. That's 5.35x. And while I know it varies from district to district, my old school's district will have its last day on the 20th, so it's not like everybody's going to be out.

[ZackM]

It does make sense for the IM to be higher for this calendar.  True Friday should get a morning and mid-day bump and then Sunday should get an evening and night bump.

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, ZackM said:

It does make sense for the IM to be higher for this calendar.  True Friday should get a morning and mid-day bump and then Sunday should get an evening and night bump.

Yep. The beauty of opening so close to the actual holiday.

[Legion Again]

To the extent that true Friday is helped by people being off school Friday, so should previews be, no? Not sure it will help ratio that much, and TFA already had a -11% Sun so it’s not like there’s a lot of room to improve there. Also it’s the finale, which typically leads to lower IMs. I really, really do not see 5x+ here. 

[Marek the Jedi]

I am still very very optimistic  not backed up with any super real numbers....

but I believe that movie will kick some exlposive numbers and WOM from previews and friday will help a lot saturday and sunday....

for me it's 205-210  and still member over 700mil club  

Marek

[jedijake]

11 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

To the extent that true Friday is helped by people being off school Friday, so should previews be, no? Not sure it will help ratio that much, and TFA already had a -11% Sun so it’s not like there’s a lot of room to improve there. Also it’s the finale, which typically leads to lower IMs. I really, really do not see 5x+ here. 

Well then we really need to see over a $40 million preview number for it to get to $200 million.

[keysersoze123]

As I have said before, projecting from one theater is absolutely ridiculous. Especially for a movie like SW9.

[pepsa]

1 hour ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Not from Endgame.

SW is much more ps heavy franshise then even the biggest MCU titel ever. So comparing it with EG will be overly positive towards TROS, we have seens this with TFA and TLJ. But like you said, it has  a lot more room to grow in the next days over EG so still hoping for over $200m

1 hour ago, Arendelle Legion said:

TBF I be the rate of SW PS growth is way less than normal PS growth.

We could make an estimated for it:

According to Jedi Jat.

 

TFA had 26m T-7 and did $57m on thursday, TLJ had 24m T-7 and did $45m so TFA had 8.33% more ps and did 26.67% more on thursday.

Accounting for the 8.33% ps diff we see that TFA did 16.9% more with equal ps's. So maybe in the next 2 years we could see something around 10%-15% again?

 

[RockyMountain]

18 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

As I have said before, projecting from one theater is absolutely ridiculous. Especially for a movie like SW9.

Especially since people within this very thread are tracking theaters that are selling over four hundred tickets a day right now for this movie. I don't think VenomXXR's theater is selling as well as a lot are

Edited December 14, 2019 by RockyMountain

[Legion Again]

12 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

MTC 1: $21.5mn Approx

 

At same time

Endgame: $34.5mn

TFA: $26mn

TLJ: $24mn

Rogue One: $13mn

 

8 minutes ago, pepsa said:

We could make an estimated for it:

According to Jedi Jat.

 

TFA had 26m T-7 and did $57m on thursday, TLJ had 24m T-7 and did $45m so TFA had 8.33% more ps and did 26.67% more on thursday.

Accounting for the 8.33% ps diff we see that TFA did 16.9% more with equal ps's. So maybe in the next 2 years we could see something around 10%-15% again?

T-7 MTC1 : previews —

TFA - 57/26=2.19x

TLJ - 45/24=1.875x (6/7ths as much)

Spoiler

RO - 29/13=2.23

EG - 60/34.5=1.74

TROS is about 10% down from TLJ at est T-7 MTC1, so, keeping in mind that this is all estimates and chain ratios vary:

Very optimistic same as TFA, 21.5*2.19=47M previews

Optimistic same ratio as TLJ, 21.5x1.875=40M previews  

medium pessimistic same as EG, 21.5*1.74=37.4M previews

very pessimistic same PSm drop as TFA->TLJ, 21.5*1.61=34.5M previews   
 

medium pessimistic there is in line with my personal thinking atm, but we’ll see how the week ramp up goes.