The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Poseidon]

As for Black Christmas:

Previews should be ignored.

Business will concentrate on Fridy with it being the 13th.

 

"Truth or dare" scored a $8,2m OD after 750k previews, so even 500k could mean $12-$13m for the movie. 

[ZackM]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Various theater chains (Michigan) Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	0	17	12	0
Seats Added	1	3	3,193	831	22
Seats Sold	614	400	566	395	249
12/12/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	268	28,687	46,161	17,474	37.85%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	15	34	58	82	104

 

 

The people of Michigan have collectively decided that they want to see Star Wars.

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Various theater chains (Michigan) Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	0	17	12	0
Seats Added	1	3	3,193	831	22
Seats Sold	614	400	566	395	249
12/12/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	268	28,687	46,161	17,474	37.85%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	15	34	58	82	104

 

 

The people of Michigan have collectively decided that they want to see Star Wars.

So you're telling me that Star Wars is popular?

 

Well, I never. 

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, VanillaSkies said:

Is the $7 off Chase Pay one for the whole weekend too?
We don't have Chase in Canada, too bad!

It's good til it runs out - supposedly, you have til 1/1/20, but I have a feeling it won't last past Star Wars OW...the TMobile Atom deal has to be used by 12/16, but you don't need to see the movie by that date, but just have bought your tickets

[RockyMountain]

1 hour ago, ZackM said:

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Various theater chains (Michigan) Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	0	17	12	0
Seats Added	1	3	3,193	831	22
Seats Sold	614	400	566	395	249
12/12/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	268	28,687	46,161	17,474	37.85%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	15	34	58	82	104

 

 

The people of Michigan have collectively decided that they want to see Star Wars.

So are you saying that all those extremely smart youtubers are wrong????????????  By Golly I just came across one of their videos today that said the fans have abandoned Star Wars.

Edited December 13, 2019 by RockyMountain

[Welfin]

I don't even know what Black Christmas is.

[VanillaSkies]

47 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

It's good til it runs out - supposedly, you have til 1/1/20, but I have a feeling it won't last past Star Wars OW...the TMobile Atom deal has to be used by 12/16, but you don't need to see the movie by that date, but just have bought your tickets

Oh wow. 

That means those two deals combined could inflate grosses nicely for the next few weeks. I'm so here for it!

[Eric Duncan]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	171	11,581	31,845	36.37%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 280

Total Seats Sold Today: 285

 

T-7 Comp

11.008x of It: Chapter Two 8 days before release (115.59M)

10.141x of Frozen II 8 days before release (90.84M)

 

T-7 Adjusted Comp

2.902x of Lion King 8 days before release (66.75M)

 

Final Count Comp

6.089x of Once Upon’s final count (35.31M)

3.344x of It: Chapter Two (35.10M)

2.359x of Joker (31.37M)

16.615x of Maleficent (38.21M)

13.296x of Terminator (31.25M)

3.446x of Frozen II (29.29M)

 

Final Count Adjusted Comp

1.040x of Lion King (23.91M)

4.933x of Hobbs & Shaw (28.61M)

 

There's really not much else to say at this point. It keeps on increasing a solid amount day to day, the numbers still seem impressive. It's good.

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

SW9 (T-8)

MTC1 Prev - overall 5254 shows 351155/869161 5224948.38 +6706
MTC2 Prev - overall 3119 shows 232054/453729 2925604.00 +4214
MTC1 OD - overall 5410 shows 272258/1099472 4192894.10 +8905
MTC2 OD - overall 4557 shows 210825/743384 2343370.00 +7665
MTC1 D2 - overall 5342 shows 226180/1088636 3315418.45 +7301
MTC2 D2 - overall 4516 shows 173838/736567 1873995.00 1 +7766
MTC1 D3 - overall 5174 shows 130634/1053687 1911364.64 +5687
MTC2 D3 - overall 4502 shows 94750/740957 986775.00 +4994

 

Another day of good acceleration from previous day.

SW9(T-7)

MTC1 Prev - overall 5270 shows 357528/870603 5315830.04  +6373
MTC2 Prev - overall 3123 shows 236135/454177 2973564.00 +4081
MTC1 OD - overall 5414 shows 281252/1100007 4317374.90 +8994
MTC2 OD - overall 4554 shows 217401/742972 2410921.00 +6576
MTC1 D2 - overall 5354 shows 233414/1090392 3413505.29 +7234
MTC2 D2 - overall 4511 shows 177978/735929 1917647.00 +4140
MTC1 D3 - overall 5184 shows 136160/1054921 1988682.60 +5526 
MTC2 D3 - overall 4493 shows 100023/740067 1039860.00 +5273

 

Slightly down from yesterday

[keysersoze123]

On 12/11/2019 at 9:26 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Jumanji 2 Previews (T-1)

MTC1  - overall 2080 shows 28139/406711 465722.60 +6299
MTC2  - overall 3000 shows 17312/465849 211092.00  +4946

 

Better day than yesterday(Duh!) but not good enough of a acceleration. Now its all down to final day sales.

 

Also Day 1 and 2 numbers(just MTC1)

MTC1 OD - overall 4152 shows 29904/810197 480502.63
MTC1 D2 - overall 4350 shows 33212/843696 452936.56

 

I had posted D1 earlier. But at least both the numbers are ahead of previews and so it will be backloaded.

Jumanji 2 Previews FINAL

MTC1 Pre END - overall 2095 shows 71262/408434 1098869.44
MTC2 Prev END - overall 3007 shows 66631/466296 781097.00

 

Phenomenal finish. Especially at MTC2 where almost 50K tickets were sold on final day. This is why I would say dont react to early PS for these movies. It should hit 5m Prev unless its sold tons of kiddie tickets plus other MTC and rest of the country not covered by the 2 MTC does not rhyme with above. I would say range is 5-5.5m previews. Let us see how things go.

Edited December 13, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Felandria]

So does that mean Jumanji is doing better than estimates have been saying?

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, Felandria said:

So does that mean Jumanji is doing better than estimates have been saying?

what estimates?

[keysersoze123]

Quick Update on Jumanji 2 OD PS

MTC1 OD PS END - overall 4184 shows 53056/814697 822140.32
MTC2 OD PS END - overall 4042 shows 48671/659955 539587.00

 

Very good compared to where it was yesterday. Based on how strong walkins were today, I am thinking this could triple by end of day tomorrow. So could hit low teens true friday and may be high teens to 20m OD.

 

With a strong saturday I could even see 60m OW in play but feeling good about 55m OW.

Edited December 13, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	5	213	9341	24696	15355	62.18%

SELLOUT NOTE:  If a showing only has wheelchair and/or wheelchair companion seats left, it is counted as a sellout

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	75
Total Seats Sold Today	256

 

T-7 Adjusted Comp #1 (EXTREMELY LOL FOR CM - DON'T USE THERE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	313.02		190	4684		0/116	8209/12893	36.33%		64.80m
EG	75.31		240	19469		18/243	5107/24576	79.22%		45.19m
TROS (adj)	n/a		238	14662		5/213	8786/23448	62.53%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel and Endgame. 

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Endgame had 24 days of pre-sales.

 

T-7 Adjusted Comp #2

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Solo	344.16		112	3747		1/92	6399/10146	36.93%		48.53m
TROS (adj)	n/a		198	12896		5/213	6407/19303	66.81%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Solo.

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Infinity War had 42 days of pre-sales and Solo 21 days of pre-sales.

 

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals (spoilered for space)

Spoiler

of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
DP2	158.56		8133		12896		29.49m
Solo	222.77		5789		12896		31.41m
JW:FK	207.06		6228		12896		31.68m
AM&tW	280.04		4605		12896		32.20m
Venom	303.47		4493		13635		30.35m
CM	138.94		10553		14662		28.76m
EG	55.01		26655		14662		33.00m
TLK	133.57		10977		14662		30.72m
It 2	271.34		5659		15355		28.49m
AVG							30.68m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

 

[Felandria]

25 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

what estimates?

Predictions have been around $35-45 for the weekend.

[keysersoze123]

Predictions have been around $35-45 for the weekend.

You are talking about predictions. They dont have to be perfect. BOM report mentioned industry expectations of 40-50+. So there is a wide range. Plus movies have gone below and above estimates constantly.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

[a2k]

8 hours ago, Menor said:

Normal for a walkup heavy film kinda like Jurassic World, where the amount of folks who like the franchise far outnumbers the hardcore fanbase. 

 

8 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

Why, you haven't been reading my posts, have you:)...

 

The Atom promos this week were hugely well known and publicized (for over a week)...but you had to wait til Tuesday and really Wednesday to get the double deal.  Ticket buyers are becoming much savvier about waiting to buy for a promo, especially if they are prebuying for a future date...

 

EDIT: But, yes, it's type of movie also helped:)...

 

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I never thought it will make just 2.5m. Those are people tracking 1 city/few theaters and extrapolating numbers which could sometimes work but other times could be way off. This was always expected to have great finish to its PS(I had said that last week). its bcos of its core audience(Latinos/minorities) who are not the most PS heavy audience.

 

thanks much. love reading all your analyses and data.

 

[a2k]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Quick Update on Jumanji 2 OD PS

MTC1 OD PS END - overall 4184 shows 53056/814697 822140.32
MTC2 OD PS END - overall 4042 shows 48671/659955 539587.00

 

Very good compared to where it was yesterday. Based on how strong walkins were today, I am thinking this could triple by end of day tomorrow. So could hit low teens true friday and may be high teens to 20m OD.

 

With a strong saturday I could even see 60m OW in play but feeling good about 55m OW.

 

tdf 13x

frozen2 15x

mal2 16x

 

don't think preview to ow multi will fall below 11.5-12x.

5x gives it 60, while 55 needs 4.6 previews.

 

with 55-56 ow, would need ~4.5x overall multi to hit 250 dom.

 

4.75

15.25 (20 od, 4.2x previews)

21.0 (+38%)

14.5 (-31%)

= 55.5 ow (11.7x previews)

Edited December 13, 2019 by a2k

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, a2k said:

don't think preview to ow multi will fall below 11.5-12x

 

6 minutes ago, a2k said:

4.75

Going by MTC 1 & 2, shall be $5.5mn.

[Yandereprime101189]

Come on Jumanji, Star Wars and Frozen 2, make that money.