The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric is Quiet]

12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Can we at least thread ban that guy. He is adding nothing to this thread. If he wants to troll limit him to SW9 thread.

While I understand your frustrations with JediJake, and I definitely am not a fan of his alarmist attitude, at least to me, he doesn't seem to be doing anything wrong, or at least is worthy of a threadban.

 

I understand you may not be happy with that answer, so the only offer I have left is for you to put him on your ignore list, including both posts and quotes, so you do not have to see such postings.

[Knights of Ren]

19 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

Or at the very least steer him to the Jedi Council forums box office thread where it is pretty much all about dramatizing things. Course I have a sneaking suspicion he is someone that already regularly posts over there.

Jedi Council Forums have gone to straight hell. It’s worse there than it is on Reddit. Most toxic environment I have ever encountered, and the mods don’t give af.  
 

Also there is no way this is doing less than or close to Rogue One numbers.  Let’s not be silly and have pre game jitters folks. 

[Eric is Quiet]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	171	12,062	31,845	37.88%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 222

 

T-5 Comp

9.985x of It: Chapter Two 5 days before release (104.84M)

9.293x of Frozen II 5 days before release (78.99M)

 

T-5 Adjusted Comp

2.537x of Lion King 5 days before release (58.35M)

 

Final Count Comp

6.342x of Once Upon’s final count (36.78M)

3.482x of It: Chapter Two (36.56M)

2.457x of Joker (32.67M)

17.305x of Maleficent (39.8M)

13.848x of Terminator (32.54M)

3.589x of Frozen II (30.5M)

 

Final Count Adjusted Comp

1.091x of Lion King (25.09M)

5.176x of Hobbs & Shaw (30.02M)

 

This was a good day. People might be concerned at the decline, but the Saturday before release commonly sees a drop from yesterday, only for the ramp-up to begin, and there was a good increase in the T-X side with both It 2 and Frozen (even though obviously both movies aren't going to hit that high).

 

As always, the last couple days make or break things, and none of my comps are that great as of now, but I think things are good.

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

SW9(T-6)

MTC1 Prev - overall 5358 shows 366249/881017 5439991.57 +8721
MTC2 Prev - overall 3137 shows 241807/455383 3039570.00 +5672
MTC1 OD- overall 5431 shows 292283/1103272 4469443.03 +11031
MTC2 OD - overall 4640 shows 226984/753840 2508458.00 +9583
MTC1 D2 - overall 5367 shows 241958/1092835 3529700.62  +8544
MTC2 D2 - overall 4591 shows 185451/745714 1996539.00  +7473
MTC1 D3 - overall 5194 shows 142265/1056904 2074260.22 +5105
MTC2 D3 - overall 4580 shows 105245/749434 1091843.00 +5222

 

Really good increase compared to yesterday.

SW9(T-5)

MTC1 Prev  - overall 5398 shows 375204/886141 5570182.78 +8955
MTC2 Prev - overall 3154 shows 246955/457423 3098869.00 +5148
MTC1 OD - overall 5466 shows 303797/1109308 4630995.79 +11514
MTC2 OD - overall 4680 shows 237147/759834 2611615.00  +10163
MTC1 D2 - overall 5399 shows 256507/1098201 3727366.12  +14549
MTC2 D2 - overall 4641 shows 198015/753852 2123880.00 +12564
MTC1 D3 - overall 5217 shows 153050/1060317 2224004.91 +10785
MTC2 D3 - overall 4611 shows 114196/753813 1181579.00  +8951

 

Very strong day all the way till sunday. I am sure even days till christmas will have good PS but I can only track so many days for now. I also expect another spurt of show count increase in final week to give huge boost next week. Challenges with previews is most of the ticket sales are happening for very late shows.

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	6	213	8914	24698	15784	63.91%

SELLOUT NOTE:  If a showing only has wheelchair and/or wheelchair companion seats left, it is counted as a sellout

 

Total Seats Sold Today

215

 

T-5 Adjusted Comp #1 (EXTREMELY LOL FOR CM - DON'T USE THERE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	292.12		237	5162		0/131	8443/13605	37.94%		60.47m
EG	75.72		222	19914		22/254	6123/26037	76.48%		45.43m
TROS (adj)	n/a		207	15079		6/213	8371/23450	64.30%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel and Endgame. 

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Endgame had 24 days of pre-sales.

 

T-5 Adjusted Comp #2

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Solo	337.47		89	3918		1/92	6228/10146	38.62%		47.58m
TROS (adj)	n/a		164	13222		6/213	6083/19305	68.49%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Solo.

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Infinity War had 42 days of pre-sales and Solo 21 days of pre-sales.

 

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals (spoilered for space)

Spoiler

of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
DP2	162.57		8133		13222		30.24m
Solo	228.40		5789		13222		32.20m
JW:FK	212.30		6228		13222		32.48m
AM&tW	287.12		4605		13222		33.02m
Venom	312.11		4493		14023		31.21m
CM	142.89		10553		15079		29.58m
EG	56.57		26655		15079		33.94m
TLK	137.37		10977		15079		31.59m
It 2	278.92		5659		15784		29.29m
AVG							31.51m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

[Porthos]

For the record... TROS (adj) passed the first day of pre-sales for Endgame locally today (15079 v 14975).

 

This isn't to mock TROS (why would I?) but rather to say just how extreme that first day for EG was.  Something we might not see again for quite a while.

Edited December 15, 2019 by Porthos

[FlashMaster659]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	5	260	18102	54314	36212	33.33%

 

Total Showings Removed Today: 1

Total Seats Removed Today: 278

Total Seats Sold Today: 401

 

Comps so far off of Final Totals of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
Joker	214.96		8421		18102		28.59m
Frozen 2	280.22		6460		18102		23.82m

 

 

[pepsa]

@Porthos The sellouts are flying in now, so nice to watch them skyrocket in the next few days  

[Jamiem]

Update from NZ, still going incredibly strong for opening day in Albany!

 

Albany Event Cinemas (New Zealand) -Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker opening day (Thur 19/12/2019)3 days before release

 

0:01am  163/216

0:01am 160/216

0:01am 155/216

0:01am VMAX 70/185

0:01am VMAX 55/133

0:01am GC 40/40

0:01am GC 30/30

9:00am 30/216

9:50am VMAX 28/133

10:20am 17/216

10:30am GC 25/30 

11:00am 15/216

11:20am GC 26/40 

11:20am VMAX 9/185

12:20pm 15/216

1:00pm VMAX 4/133

1:40pm 27/216

1:50pm GC 24/30

2:20pm 3D 22/216

2:30pm VMAX 4/185

2:40pm GC 3D 26/40 

3:40pm 31/216

4:15pm VMAX 13/133

5:00pm 55/216

5:10pm GC 30/30

5:50pm VMAX 23/185

7:00pm 151/216

7:30pm VMAX 61/133

8:20pm 123/216

8:30pm GC 29/30

9:00pm VMAX 26/185

9.20pm 25/216

9.20pm GC 40/40 

10.20pm 11/216

 

Total  1563/5140 (30.41%) 

 

VMAX has allowed for a nice boost to ticket sales particularly for Midnights and late night sessions. I don’t think either of the 3 day comps are particularly great but still the best I have, I’m almost certain TROS will be more presale heavy than TLK and F2. That being said still looking incredibly strong and I’d say around $4m opening weekend, which is about what TLJ opened to, looks about right at the moment. 

 

Comps

 

TLK 

 

At the same point 926/5338 (17.34%) = $8.63m 

 

Frozen II

 

At the same point 398/2230 (17.85%) = $6.24m

[jedijake]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Can we at least thread ban that guy. He is adding nothing to this thread. If he wants to troll limit him to SW9 thread.

Says that to the person calling the under-$1 billion predictions trolling and calls out the idea that TROS will make more overall domestic than overseas despite the fact that the ONLY movie to do that was Solo? (all others made 45-47% domesetic)? 

 

So who is "troll limiting"? 

[charlie Jatinder]

T-5 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

 

MTC 1: $23.2mn Approx

 

At same time

Endgame: $39mn

 

MTC 2: $13.30mn

 

Nationwide estimates

Previews: $23mn

Friday: $20mn

Saturday: $16.5mn

Sunday: $9.5mn // $69mn

Rest: $14mn // $83mn

 

At same time

Endgame: $135mn

 

Estimated FSS day wise comparison of Endgame and TRS T-5 Days

Spoiler

	Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker	Avengers: Endgame	% TRS/EG
Previews	$23.06	$28.00	82.35%
Friday	$20.34	$33.00	61.63%
Saturday	$16.43	$33.00	49.80%
Sunday	$9.55	$23.00	41.52%

 

Note: All these numbers include a good amount of estimation. The system is working well but there's always margin of error, take +/-5%.

[XXR & Friends]

10 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Spoiler

	Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker	Avengers: Endgame	% TRS/EG
Previews	$23.06	$28.00	82.35%
Friday	$20.34	$33.00	61.63%
Saturday	$16.43	$33.00	49.80%
Sunday	$9.55	$23.00	41.52%

 

 

Crazy that, even with some of these metrics below 50%, the whole would still point to a $210m+ opening. 

[Joyous Legion]

28 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Says that to the person calling the under-$1 billion predictions trolling and calls out the idea that TROS will make more overall domestic than overseas despite the fact that the ONLY movie to do that was Solo? (all others made 45-47% domesetic)? 

 

So who is "troll limiting"? 

Dude, you really need to go look at RO’s DOM/OS split. I corrected you last time but I guess you missed it

Edited December 15, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[charlie Jatinder]

14 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Dude, you really need to go look at RO’s DOM/OS split. I corrected you last time but I guess you missed it

And RO did (HUGE) 70 million in China. 

[charlie Jatinder]

double post.

Edited December 15, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[Krissykins]

12 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Cats presales seem to be doing relatively good? doesn't seem like it will bomb unless frontloaded and scares away families

It has sell outs at my local (UK) but it’s in smaller rooms because of Star Wars. 
 

Any update on US? 

[XXR & Friends]

33 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

It has sell outs at my local (UK) but it’s in smaller rooms because of Star Wars. 
 

Any update on US? 

 

14 tickets sold at my theater for Thursday.....

By comparison, TROS is at 1300+ 

[Eric is Quiet]

37 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

It has sell outs at my local (UK) but it’s in smaller rooms because of Star Wars. 
 

Any update on US? 

There's definitely no sellouts, but sales, at least for Thursday, are pretty decent. As always, it depends on how it picks up in the next couple days, but I think high teens are very, very likely.

[filmlover]

I was taking a look at the Christmas Day sales at my theater and this is what it looks like so far 10 days out with the total number of seats sold (all of these movies are in the biggest auditoriums):

 

Star Wars (over 2 screens): 520

Cats: 174

Uncut Gems: 174
Bombshell: 168

Little Women: 137

Spies in Disguise: 74

Jumanji: 44

 

Pretty strong for everything this far out since more screens/showtimes are gonna be added within the next week. It's gonna be one very busy day here.

[Eric is Quiet]

12 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I was taking a look at the Christmas Day sales at my theater and this is what it looks like so far 10 days out with the total number of seats sold (all of these movies are in the biggest auditoriums):

 

Star Wars (over 2 screens): 520

Cats: 174

Uncut Gems: 174
Bombshell: 168

Little Women: 137

Spies in Disguise: 74

Jumanji: 44

 

Pretty strong for everything this far out since more screens/showtimes are gonna be added within the next week. It's gonna be one very busy day here.

Quite surprised Gems and Bombshell are so high, but that’s far from a bad thing