The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

17 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

No. Like 3M would be needed to “lock” 30. 

 

lol, that's a Horror movie not a SH movie. 

[Eric Duncan]

The Invisible Man Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	43	898	7,748	11.59%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 559

 

Comp

2.093x of Crawl (2.09M)

1.379x of Scary Stories (3.21M)

2.164x of Ready or Not (1.58M)

0.259x of It Chapter Two (2.72M)

0.886x of Zombieland (2.53M)

2.279x of Doctor Sleep (3.42M)

1.657x of The Grudge (2.98M)

 

Other people's data does make me feel like this could be overperforming here. But hey, would love to see this come into fruition.

[Legion Again]

11 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

 

lol, that's a Horror movie not a SH movie. 

I’m aware of the genre. My response remains correct.

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

5 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

I’m aware of the genre. My response remains correct.

 

So, you're saying that it will have at best a 10.0x off previews? Let's see how it will work out for you this weekend. 

[DAJK]

8 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

I’m aware of the genre. My response remains correct.

I agree. Horror is definitely one of the more frontloaded genres. Although I would add the caveat that a lot of this frontloaded-ness comes more typically from Fridays than from Thursday previews. 

 

With that being said, Quiet Place did 50 OW with 4.3 (I think) previews. Given I think Invisible Man seems to be garnering similarly-positive reactions, I wouldn't say 30 is off the table if the Thursday number comes in at around 2.5M. But I agree that we shouldn't throw around the word "lock" willy-nilly unless the numbers tonight are really damn impressive. 

 

Edit: @The Horror of Lucas Films I think @Arendelle Legion's response has more to do with the use of the word "lock". They aren't saying 30M isn't going to happen if tonight's numbers are sub-3M. But we can't throw around words like lock so easily. 

Edited February 28, 2020 by DAJK

[Eric Duncan]

14 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

 

But AQP was quite front-loaded during the OW because Paramount sold it as an event, a better comparision would be Get Out that did $1.8m at previews and did $33.4m on OW. 

 

Using recent "non-event", well-reviewed horror releases:

 

Scary Stories: 8.977x IM (yes, it was based off a book series, but I doubt the fanbase was that significant)

Crawl: 12.005x

Overlord: 11.336x

Hereditary: 10.442x

 

Granted some of these movies debuted in the summer, when previews are larger and the IM gets smaller, but considering how close these IMs are to AQP's 11.7x, how exactly is this any different?

 

Besides, Get Out is three years old, which is an eternity in movie world, so it's not very fair to use that film as a comparison. Even 2018 is kind of a stretch.

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

 

So, you're saying that it will have at best a 10.0x off previews? Let's see how it will work out for you this weekend. 

No, the required previews to lock 30M is a matter of the at worst internal multiplier. Which is about 10x.

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

1 minute ago, Eric the Hedgehog said:

 

Using recent "non-event", well-reviewed horror releases:

 

Scary Stories: 8.977x IM (yes, it was based off a book series, but I doubt the fanbase was that significant)

Crawl: 12.005x

Overlord: 11.336x

Hereditary: 10.442x

 

Granted some of these movies debuted in the summer, when previews are larger and the IM gets smaller, but considering how close these IMs are to AQP's 11.7x, how exactly is this any different?

 

Besides, Get Out is three years old, which is an eternity in movie world, so it's not very fair to use that film as a comparison. Even 2018 is kind of a stretch.

 

All those releases are summer releases, not a valid comparision. 

 

TIM can easily get a 12.0x15.0x multple, but let's see tomorrow. 

[Eric Duncan]

Just now, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

 

All those releases are summer releases, not a valid comparision. 

 

TIM can easily get a 12.0x15.0x multple, but let's see tomorrow. 

Overlord was a November release. Was it an "event" film too?

[Legion Again]

I think 1.8*15 or something is totally possible. But high 2s could still miss 30 if something weird happened.

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

12 minutes ago, Eric the Hedgehog said:

Overlord was a November release. Was it an "event" film too?

 

It was a movie that underperformed since the previews, and didn't come close to get good WOM. What's the point?

 

I may be wrong but I see TIM acting more like GO than to AQP this weekend. 

Edited February 28, 2020 by The Horror of Lucas Films

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/26/2020 at 2:17 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Invisible Man Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

62

1256

4.94%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

63

1469

4.29%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
213	74	6246	3.41%	9	32

Shows added: 1

Seats added: 643

 

Gemini Man comp: 1.85M

Invisible Man Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

171

1256

13.61%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

110

1469

7.49%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
695	482	6246	11.13%	9	32

 

Terminator comp: 1.75M

Gemini Man comp: 2.07M

IT 2 comp: 1.88M

 

Wish I had better comps for this. Doctor Sleep and Zombieland 2 overperformed here big time, so I'm not even including them. I'll go with the average of these comps, 1.9M exact

[keysersoze123]

29 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

AQP had a 11.7 multi with great WOM.     IM would need 2.56 in previews with that multi.  More likely would need in the high 2s or 3+

 

I am sure this will do more than 10x previews. AQP was much bigger movie and so may not make better sense. PS for OD is looking like 2-2.25m by morning tomorrow. 4x that number is 8-9m. I think 9-11.5-7.5 is possible. So 2m previews and 30m OW. Not easy but possible. 

[Porthos]

*does a somewhat early, quick scan of Mulan in Sacramento*

 

Hmmmmm.....

 

Just what would be a good recent comp for it, anyway???

 

It's at 84% of Aladdin's first day with a couple of hours left before I would do a 'real' check.  For a different comp, it's 122.78% of Pika Pika's first day but 67.6% of KotM's first day (with the note that KotM had a couple of early days of pre-pre-sales before the official announcement).

 

Just.... Hmmmmm.....

 

===

 

FWIW, it's being buoyed by a couple of very strong group sales (to the tune of 35 to 40 or so tickets at two showings), and I'm not really sure how great an Aladdin comp really is.

 

But I have to say, seeing @Inceptionzq's Denver numbers and @keysersoze123's national numbers made me want to check Sacto, and, well, Hmmm...

 

(Cali is on the West Coast, so that might be skewing things, along with a fan rush)

((On the other hand, Pika Pika and Aladdin might have had their own fan rushes))

 

Edited February 28, 2020 by Porthos
Forgot to mention the national numbers that made me curious in the first place

[Alex SciChannel]

Now that TIM is out in all of the Continental US, I wonder how are walkups doing?

[Eric Duncan]

Onward Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	51	98	10,539	0.93%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 198

Total Seats Sold Today: 3

 

Comp

0.624x of Maleficent 7 days before release (1.44M)

0.705x of Jumanji (3.31M)
2.000x of Dolittle (1.85M)

0.469x of Sonic (1.41M)

 

Well it did go down from yesterday, but too hard for my tastes. However, Inceptionzq's data is a lot more favorable, so I'm just going to chalk it up as a bad day...for now.

[lorddemaxus]

Lol are people seriously expecting the movie to be as backloaded as Get Out? That's like expecting a superhero film to be as backloaded as Black Panther or Wonder Woman, both of which (like Get Out), had out of the world WoM. Even if The Invisible Man had really good WoM, I doubt the WoM is Get Out good.

[Eric Duncan]

Mulan Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-28 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	44	108	9,159	1.18%

 

Comp

1.565x of Maleficent 28 days before release (3.6M)

 

With only one comp to go off of, it's hard to pin down on any numbers. But I thought this was a great first day. Passing 100 tickets puts it at a strong pace already, and if sales continue to do well, it's only natural this should do very well. Also hoping that the Maleficent comp increases a bit too in the next couple days

[keysersoze123]

12 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Invisible Man(Thursday Morning Update)

MTC1 Prev - overall 1056 shows 17595/205832 289188.38 236635.77 +6012

MTC2 Prev - overall 1017 shows 5732/171102 71727.75 51617.01 +2602

 

MTC2 numbers are still incredibly weak. Need to do 4x at MTC2 today and hit 40K+ at MTC1 to hit 2m. Definitely possible. 

 

I will update OD PS later tonight but by nightime yesterday it was slightly higher than previews at MTC1 and 60-70% higher. if it hits 2m of PS for OD by morning tomorrow it will be on course for 9-10m true friday based on @charlie Jatinder which should be enough for 30m OW. 

Invisible Man Previews(Final)

MTC1 - overall 1061 shows 39800/206444 609591.70

MTC2 - overall 1026 shows 25338/171775 307907.89 

 

Good finish for the day. It was at 15.5K at MTC1 and ~5K at MTC2 yesterday night. Should be good for ~2m previews. 

 

On 2/26/2020 at 9:56 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Invisible Man (Wednesday Morning Update)

MTC1 OD - overall 2635 shows 11334/545435 190712.66 159858.16 +2906

MTC2 OD - overall 2371 shows 6177/415388 70890.83 55185.55 +1608

 

OD PS

MTC1 - overall 2826 shows 27167/572462 431562.10 post 6PM 1569 shows 20860/316837 338576.12 

MTC2 - overall 2375 shows 15925/417506 183358.47 post 6PM 1063 shows 11205/184874 141138.84 

 

I think it should be at 35K at MTC1 and 20K+ at MTC2 by the time show starts. That should be 2M+ of PS. I would  say 8m true friday, 10.5m saturday and 7m sunday for around 27-28m OW. it could go higher if walk ups are super strong. 

[Eric Duncan]

F9 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-84 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	52	383	12,658	3.03%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1

 

yay a thing happened i guess