The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

*does a somewhat early, quick scan of Mulan in Sacramento*

 

Hmmmmm.....

 

Just what would be a good recent comp for it, anyway???

 

It's at 84% of Aladdin's first day with a couple of hours left before I would do a 'real' check.  For a different comp, it's 122.78% of Pika Pika's first day but 67.6% of KotM's first day (with the note that KotM had a couple of early days of pre-pre-sales before the official announcement).

 

Just.... Hmmmmm.....

 

===

 

FWIW, it's being buoyed by a couple of very strong group sales (to the tune of 35 to 40 or so tickets at two showings), and I'm not really sure how great an Aladdin comp really is.

 

But I have to say, seeing @Inceptionzq's Denver numbers and @keysersoze123's national numbers made me want to check Sacto, and, well, Hmmm...

 

(Cali is on the West Coast, so that might be skewing things, along with a fan rush)

((On the other hand, Pika Pika and Aladdin might have had their own fan rushes))

 

Since you have not done one in a while I would say take a look. Very promising numbers in less than a day. 

 

Beyond numbers I gave some shows are listed as sellouts at MTC1 but my tracker does not pick them up. But if you go into source and look at the shows its showing only 1 ticket sold !!!! I remember seeing same glitch for Joker/Frozen 2 etc. 

 

https://www.amctheatres.com/movies/mulan-49548/showtimes/mulan-49548/2020-03-26/amc-metreon-16/all

https://www.amctheatres.com/movies/blumhouse-s-fantasy-island-59079/showtimes/mulan-49548/2020-03-26/amc-metreon-16/all/88990618

https://www.amctheatres.com/movies/blumhouse-s-fantasy-island-59079/showtimes/mulan-49548/2020-03-26/amc-metreon-16/all/88990601

[Legion Again]

33 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Lol are people seriously expecting the movie to be as backloaded as Get Out? That's like expecting a superhero film to be as backloaded as Black Panther or Wonder Woman, both of which (like Get Out), had out of the world WoM. Even if The Invisible Man had really good WoM, I doubt the WoM is Get Out good.

The discussion has been about the weekend’s internal multiplier, not the legs from the weekend. Panther was just 8x and WW just 9.4x. While Get Out’s internal multiplier was really good, it’s more down to being a 2017 first entry, not the WOM.   

Edited February 28, 2020 by Arendelle Legion

[Porthos]

26 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Since you have not done one in a while I would say take a look. Very promising numbers in less than a day. 

Problem is, I will be tracking AQP II, NTTD and FF9* all at once starting real soon now.  Throwing Mulan into the mix might be annoying and I'll only want to do it if it really looks promising. At least 6m+ previews promising.

* I might be only reporting it once a week, but I'm still tracking it nightly on my home sheet.

 

If some of those coming up were more limited in initial showcount, it might not be so bad.  And if I had a good comp that I thought was worthwhile, even better. 

 

The real question, I suppose, is: Do I comp this against other Disney Live Action Remakes/Family Films or is the fact that Mulan is more of a epic make those less useful comps and I should turn to something more action-y like KotM?

 

Still, I'll probably take a serious look in a few minutes and see where it lands.  Maybe make a comp against just Aladdin and Pika Pika.  Then take another look tomorrow and Saturday and if it sustains some momentum, grind my teeth and report away.

 

Edited February 28, 2020 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Problem is, I will be tracking AQP II, NTTD and FF9* all at once starting real soon now.  Throwing Mulan into the mix might be annoying and I'll only want to do it if it really looks promising. At least 6m+ previews promising.

* I might be only reporting it once a week, but I'm still tracking it nightly on my home sheet.

 

If some of those coming up were more limited in initial showcount, it might not be so bad.  And if I had a good comp that I thought was worthwhile, even better. 

 

The real question, I suppose, is: Do I comp this against other Disney Live Action Remakes/Family Films or is the fact that Mulan is more of a epic make those less useful comps and I should turn to something more action-y like KotM?

 

Still, I'll probably take a serious look in a few minutes and see where it lands.  Maybe make a comp against just Aladdin and Pika Pika.  Then take another look tomorrow and Saturday and if it sustains some momentum, grind my teeth and report away.

 

I would use both Aladdin and even Frozen 2 as comps. 

 

On other movies you are tracking, FF9 is really early. Is it useful to track a movie that has another 3 months to release. You will not have too many movies start ticket sales this early and anyway real action wont happen until final 2 weeks or so. 

 

Bond is interesting considering Imax/PLF are playing whole day but I am not sure we should call it "previews". Quiet Place 2 should be interesting to track for sure. 

 

Anyway do it if you think you have the bandwidth. 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I would use both Aladdin and even Frozen 2 as comps. 

Was really hesitiant about Frozen 2, but maybe.  Might as well bring in TLK while I'm at it, then.  Could even be a decent bridge between Aladdin and Mulan due to its more serious nature.

Quote

On other movies you are tracking, FF9 is really early. Is it useful to track a movie that has another 3 months to release. You will not have too many movies start ticket sales this early and anyway real action wont happen until final 2 weeks or so. 

 

Bond is interesting considering Imax/PLF are playing whole day but I am not sure we should call it "previews". Quiet Place 2 should be interesting to track for sure. 

 

Anyway do it if you think you have the bandwidth. 

FF9 I'm doing coz it (currently) takes practically no time and the morbid curiosity is strong. 

NTTD should probably only be about 20 to 25 extra showings since not every theater in the region has PLF, so still worth it in my mind.  And it'll be reported as a preview night, plus that burn from extra PLF showings will affect a weekend multi, so still worth it.  Annoying, but worth it.

 

===

 

Just did a quick spin and Mulan sold 32 more tickets since I last checked giving a total of 226/11301 (2.00%), putting it at 97.84% of Aladdin (6.85m) and 143.03% of Pika Pika (8.15m) after one day of sales.  On the other hand, that's only 19.65% of TLK (4.52m), 25.08% of Frozen 2 (2.13m) and 32.80% of TS4 (3.94m).

 

That Aladdin  comp is giving me the best reason to keep doing this.  On the other, Aladdin  had a VERY strong second day locally before settling into the marathon.  As for Pika Pika, who the fuck knows.  On the other other hand, all of TS4, TLK, and F2 had huge fan rushes, so those Day 1's are hella skewed.

 

So... I don't fucking know.   That initial number really is good though.  I think I will in fact give it a day and see if Mulan does indeed have staying power.  Sleeping on it and thinking about it will probably help as well.

 

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Was really hesitiant about Frozen 2, but maybe.  Might as well bring in TLK while I'm at it, then.  Could even be a decent bridge between Aladdin and Mulan due to its more serious nature.

FF9 I'm doing coz it (currently) takes practically no time and the morbid curiosity is strong. 

NTTD should probably only be about 20 to 25 extra showings since not every theater in the region has PLF, so still worth it in my mind.  And it'll be reported as a preview night, plus that burn from extra PLF showings will affect a weekend multi, so still worth it.  Annoying, but worth it.

 

===

 

Just did a quick spin and Mulan sold 32 more tickets since I last checked giving a total of 226/11301 (2.00%), putting it at 97.84% of Aladdin (6.85m) and 143.03% of Pika Pika (8.15m) after one day of sales.  On the other hand, that's only 19.65% of TLK (4.52m), 25.08% of Frozen 2 (2.13m) and 32.80% of TS4 (3.94m).

 

That Aladdin  comp is giving me the best reason to keep doing this.  On the other, Aladdin  had a VERY strong second day locally before settling into the marathon.  As for Pika Pika, who the fuck knows.  On the other other hand, all of TS4, TLK, and F2 had huge fan rushes, so those Day 1's are hella skewed.

 

So... I don't fucking know.   That initial number really is good though.  I think I will in fact give it a day and see if Mulan does indeed have staying power.  Sleeping on it and thinking about it will probably help as well.

 

mulan has one more hour for a full day could pass aladdin

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, john2000 said:

mulan has one more hour for a full day could pass aladdin

That's not how my sampling works.

 

When I really care (and right now I don't for FF9), I try to get my counts in between 9:30pm to 10:30pm local time.  Sometimes a little later, sometimes a little sooner.  I make it so it is roughly at the same time every night, but there can easily be a plus or minus two hours in that window so it isn't designed to be that exacting.

 

Either way, very very few tickets are being sold locally this time of night so I doubt it matters.  

[charlie Jatinder]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

That should be 2M+ of PS. I would  say 8m true friday

I think PS is more like $1.6mn ish. Though that 8mn might be right depending on how walkins are.

[filmlover]

Just noticed that The Way Back isn't doing Thursday previews, which is usually what happens when WB is offloading a movie. I guess dismal numbers next weekend are inevitable. Too bad.

[Eric Duncan]

@Porthos Queen Blunt Part Deux is now on sale. You know what to do

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Eric the Hedgehog said:

@Porthos Queen Blunt Part Deux is now on sale. You know what to do

[dudalb]

11 hours ago, Porthos said:

That's not how my sampling works.

 

When I really care (and right now I don't for FF9), I try to get my counts in between 9:30pm to 10:30pm local time.  Sometimes a little later, sometimes a little sooner.  I make it so it is roughly at the same time every night, but there can easily be a plus or minus two hours in that window so it isn't designed to be that exacting.

 

Either way, very very few tickets are being sold locally this time of night so I doubt it matters.  

You are in Sacramento, you think that we are only a half hour's drive from Vacaville, which has become Ground Zero of the Corona Virus in the US, is causing a drop in ticket sales locally?

And if the Virus succeeds in torpedoing the US Economy, it's going to have a big impact on box office aside from the fear factor.

[Porthos]

13 minutes ago, dudalb said:

You are in Sacramento, you think that we are only a half hour's drive from Vacaville, which has become Ground Zero of the Corona Virus in the US, is causing a drop in ticket sales locally?

And if the Virus succeeds in torpedoing the US Economy, it's going to have a big impact on box office aside from the fear factor.

I have no idea if there is a drop in ticket sales locally.

 

As for the economy/going to theaters in general?  Not yet, I don't think.  But it could happen, sure.  Any industry that depends on crowds gathering in one spot could get hit hard if things go badly.

 

Could also blow over soon enough to just be a temporary blip from the crowd standpoint.  At the same time, when times are tough, being entertained gets more appealing just to have some time to take off from worries.  Might try to take advantage of Discount Tuesdays and matinees and whatnot.

 

Really too soon to tell, honestly.

 

(the stock market in free fall sure doesn't help tho)

[SpiderByte]

I can't believe the Simpsons got Joe Russo to actually play the BOT forums

 

 

[Legion Again]

31 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

I can't believe the Simpsons got Joe Russo to actually play the BOT forums

 

 

Damn, an Avengers moving needing a better 2nd weekend hold than every MCU movie except Thor 1 and Black Panther? Global economy is doomed for sure.

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/27/2020 at 1:56 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Onward Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

22

1434

1.53%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

30

1610

1.86%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
144	16	7694	1.87%	9	40

 

Sonic comp: 2.63M

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 1.84M

Onward Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

29

1434

2.02%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

30

1610

1.86%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
153	9	7694	1.99%	9	40

 

Sonic comp: 2.22M

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 1.93M

On 2/26/2020 at 1:57 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Onward Feb 29th showings up to 271 tickets sold. 48 sold in 2 days

Onward Feb 29th showings up to 430 tickets sold. 159 sold in 2 days

 

Previews are still slow, but the advanced showings are a very good sign. I think previews will start to really bump up next week with no adv showings taking a lot of the traffic. If it doesn't, then worry can start to set in.

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/27/2020 at 2:23 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Mulan Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

21

1826

1.15%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

10

1854

0.54%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
99	N/A	9614	1.03%	8	54

Mulan Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

32

1826

1.75%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

31

1854

1.67%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
146	47	10628	1.37%	9	62

 

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 4.22M

[Inceptionzq]

A Quiet Place Part 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

11

1446

0.76%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

7

1665

0.42%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
51	N/A	8185	0.62%	9	38

[john2000]

24 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Mulan Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

32

1826

1.75%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

31

1854

1.67%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
146	47	10628	1.37%	9	62

 

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 4.22M

wow, thats very very good

[Eric Duncan]

Onward Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	52	102	10,788	0.95%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 249

Total Seats Sold Today: 4

 

Comp

0.622x of Maleficent 6 days before release (1.43M)

0.614x of Jumanji (2.89M)
2.082x of Dolittle (1.92M)

0.395x of Sonic (1.19M)