The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[a2k]

Onward is looking good for 2.5m previews with a decent shot at 3m? Bodes well for 50+ ow.

Edited March 5, 2020 by a2k

[charlie Jatinder]

I guess $3mn is likely for Onward. May be more. IIRC this is first original toon film we tracked @keysersoze123. If not what were T-1 day to final multiple for them. Should easily be 3x IMO. It's around $1mn nationwide pre-sales so far.

[charlie Jatinder]

If Onward gets 60+ weekend, will be tracking, else I don't feel like opening data until Widow, even that seems to be dull. May be AQP2 if that brings 70+.

[TalismanRing]

Onward Comps for OW multiples.  I omitted Summer, Thanksgiving and Christmas openers since they work so differently except for two  Summer Pixar b/c 1) I needed some Pixar and 2) to show change over a two year period in regards to front loading (though Inside Out was vastly more liked than Cars 3 which probably helped the internal multi).  Same reason I included Storks, Smallfoot & Abominable - multis went down & up  over the years but previews were also correspondingly higher.

 

Anyhow... looking at these multis I don't see how it's less than 20 - should be closer to 25+   Dragon 3 was the lowest but it's a threequel.  Lego 2s $2.1m included the .6m preview so multi was  22.7 multi off  a $1.5m Thur and that was from 4pm.

 

Release Date	Movie	Previews ($M)	Pre- W/E B.O.	OD ($M)	O W/E ($M)	OD Multi	OW Multi	Locations	Start
6/19/2015	Inside Out	3.7	0	34.3	90.4	9.3	24.4		From 7pm
3/4/2016	Zootopia	1.7	0	19.5	75.1	11.5	44.2
9/23/2016	Storks	0.44	0	5.8	21.3	13.3	49
11/4/2016	Trolls	0.9	0	12.4	46.6	13.7	51.8	3000	From 5pm
2/10/2017	Lego Batman Movie	2.2	0	14.5	53	6.6	24.1	3400	From 5pm
4/7/2017	Smurfs 3	0.38	0	4.1	13.2	10.9	35.2	2731	From 5pm
6/16/2017	Cars 3	2.8	0	19.6	53.7	7	19.2
3/9/2018	Wrinkle in Time	1.3	0	10.2	33.1	7.9	25.5		From 7pm
9/28/2018	Smallfoot	0.85	0	6.4	23	7.6	27.1
2/8/2019	Lego Movie 2	2.1	0.6	8.5	34.1	4	16.2/22.7		From 4pm
2/22/2019	How to Train Your Dragon 3	3	2.5	17.4	55	5.8	18.3	3200	From 6pm
9/27/2019	Abominable	0.65	0	5.7	20.6	8.7	31.7
10/11/2019	Addams Family	1.25	0	9.7	30.3	7.8	24.2	3000	From 4pm

Edited March 5, 2020 by TalismanRing

[Eric Deetz]

https://deadline.com/2020/03/mulan-opening-weekend-projections-1202875132/

 

Quote

Disney’s Mulan boarded tracking this morning and is seeing a 3-day domestic start around $85M when it hits theaters on March 27. Some believe the live action remake of the 1998 musical animated pic has a shot to get to $100M based on tracking diagnostics and comparative titles, but the looming outbreak of the coronavirus stateside brings uncertainty in regards to how much it will damper grosses.

 

[Cooper Legion]

Watching that tracking plummet below 50 will be a treat.

[OncomingStorm93]

7 minutes ago, Eric Lightfoot said:

but the looming outbreak of the coronavirus stateside brings uncertainty in regards to how much it will damper grosses.

[keysersoze123]

I have no hope for any movies after 2 weeks. Case count will be lot bigger as the Trump administration is not taking this seriously 😞

 

I would say move out Mulan onwards until things get back to norm.

[a2k]

Release Mulan on Disney+ on the CornoaPlan : $10/month for same-day release + face mask sent to your billing address (no shipping charges).

[keysersoze123]

Way Back(T-1)

MTC1 OD - overall 1121 shows 5518/147212 71186.40 56906.46post 6PM 515 shows 3734/67963 50823.40 39813.09

MTC2 OD - overall 1239 shows 3794/156758 39818.51 29978.01 post 6PM 519 shows 2429/65972 28551.47 19644.85

 

Way Back has no previews but looking at OD PS I am thinking 3m+ OD and double double digit OW. 

[AdrianL]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Way Back(T-1)

MTC1 OD - overall 1121 shows 5518/147212 71186.40 56906.46post 6PM 515 shows 3734/67963 50823.40 39813.09

MTC2 OD - overall 1239 shows 3794/156758 39818.51 29978.01 post 6PM 519 shows 2429/65972 28551.47 19644.85

 

Way Back has no previews but looking at OD PS I am thinking 3m+ OD and double double digit OW. 

They should've done previews as reviews are solid... oh well, 10m+ would be surprising to me, would be happy for Ben if this ends up doing fine. 

[filmlover]

21 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Way Back(T-1)

MTC1 OD - overall 1121 shows 5518/147212 71186.40 56906.46post 6PM 515 shows 3734/67963 50823.40 39813.09

MTC2 OD - overall 1239 shows 3794/156758 39818.51 29978.01 post 6PM 519 shows 2429/65972 28551.47 19644.85

 

Way Back has no previews but looking at OD PS I am thinking 3m+ OD and double double digit OW. 

Yeah, it's selling great for the weekend. Will likely get an A CinemaScore grade too so if it manages $10M+ it might leg it out to a $40M+ total with light competition in the weeks ahead (assuming The Apocalypse doesn't become a reality lol).

[Inceptionzq]

1 hour ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Watching that tracking plummet below 50 will be a treat.

Saying it’ll be a treat is a little strange considering the circumstances lol. But I agree. I think next week we’ll really start seeing the impact of COVID-19. No way this opens to 85M after 3 weeks of spread.

[filmlover]

On a more positive note, it's nice to see all of the wide releases as Certified Fresh on RT (Emma. and Onward are already there and The Way Back will eventually hit it at 81% so far). Feels like it's been a while since we've had a single weekend where every movie is something to look forward to.

[Cooper Legion]

5 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Saying it’ll be a treat is a little strange considering the circumstances lol. But I agree. I think next week we’ll really start seeing the impact of COVID-19. No way this opens to 85M after 3 weeks of spread.

Very poorly worded in retrospect. I’m been in enough arguments now with oblivious people (not just this site, primarily elsewhere) that I’m going to feel a sense of grim vindication when they start to wake up. But the underlying cause is horrific, and if it was within my control I’d keep conditions such that 90+ remained plausible.
 

I still think Mulan will move, tbh.

[lorddemaxus]

18 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Very poorly worded in retrospect. I’m been in enough arguments now with oblivious people (not just this site, primarily elsewhere) that I’m going to feel a sense of grim vindication when they start to wake up. But the underlying cause is horrific, and if it was within my control I’d keep conditions such that 90+ remained plausible.
 

I still think Mulan will move, tbh.

I feel like if Mulan is moving, it can't be any later than July or August. The movie has already had 3 trailers and they can't just restart the marketing campaign.

 

Edit: Also Germany boxoffice hasn't collapsed yet eventhough there are over 300 cases there so maybe moviegoing here won't be affected unless the government actually shuts cinemas down or a bit later into its run when confirmed cases gets enormous (like thousands)?

Edited March 5, 2020 by lorddemaxus

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I feel like if Mulan is moving, it can't be any later than July or August. The movie has already had 3 trailers and they can't just restart the marketing campaign.

 

Edit: Also Germany boxoffice hasn't collapsed yet eventhough there are over 300 cases there so maybe moviegoing here won't be affected unless the government actually shuts cinemas down or a bit later into its run when confirmed cases gets enormous (like thousands)?

Cinemas will only start to shut down if it reaches the point where other businesses start to shut down (that hasn't happened yet). In that Variety article yesterday after the Bond move ( https://variety.com/2020/film/news/coronavirus-movie-theater-closure-1203523653/ ) it was mentioned how at worst they expected only a couple of regions to close down, which isn't enough to delay a movie (and also because Disney isn't in the same position as MGM).

[lorddemaxus]

I've been thinking about it for a while but anyone know what % of the national boxoffice do Washington and California make up? I'm asking because the at moment those two states seem to be getting the most cases reported right now. Would closing cinemas in those states have a big effect? I'm pretty sure California makes up a substantial percentage of the national boxoffice.

[Eric Deetz]

Just now, lorddemaxus said:

I've been thinking about it for a while but anyone know what % of the national boxoffice do Washington and California make up? I'm asking because the at moment those two states seem to be getting the most cases reported right now. Would closing cinemas in those states have a big effect? I'm pretty sure California makes up a substantial percentage of the national boxoffice.

IIRC, California is typically a popular area, and usually have the most popular theaters. RTH often shows the most popular theaters for stuff like Marvel and Star Wars, and LA theaters are usually in the top 10

 

Think @RthRise and @charlie Jatinder have actual data tho

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

2 hours ago, Eric Lightfoot said:

https://deadline.com/2020/03/mulan-opening-weekend-projections-1202875132/

 

 

 

And some persons here compared Mulan's appeal to DUMBO.