The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TwoMisfits]

8 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I read somewhere that MTC2 can survive with 10% occupancy, this is doing 6% on a Friday that too with lower theatre share in gross. 

 

TENET may play for months but if occupancy gonna stay at this level, they better close or do like only prime time show. That won't help fixed cost but may help variable cost and increase occupancy a bit.

My local Cinemarks are pursuing this strategy on weekdays - only 4pm and 7pm hour shows Mon-Thurs (even for cheap Tuesday), so employees can work 1 single 3-11pm shift...

[keysersoze123]

Tenet Day 9

MTC1 - 38530/522693  385K (3356 shows)

MTC2 - 30333/375398   333K (2641 shows)

 

it dropped only mid teens in MTC1 and low 20's in MTC2 compared to last saturday. But overall numbers are low plus there were more theaters that opened. I could see theaters in Orange, CA doing very well and they were not open last weekend. 

[charlie Jatinder]

well done @keysersoze123. we did better than rival studios this week apparently 😛

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

well done @keysersoze123. we did better than rival studios this week apparently 😛

box office forum - rival studios 

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[RockyMountain]

I think it might be quite a while before studios make another 200m dollar movie. I think for the next five to ten years 100-150m movies will be the largest productions they green light.

[lorddemaxus]

4 hours ago, RockyMountain said:

I think it might be quite a while before studios make another 200m dollar movie. I think for the next five to ten years 100-150m movies will be the largest productions they green light.

If anything this pandemic means more 200 mil productions. More big-budget superhero films while everything else goes to streaming. Hopefully not but this isn't gonna cause studios to go back to lower budgets. At best, nothing changes, at worst, what I said before will hapen. 

[Jamiem]

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

If anything this pandemic means more 200 mil productions. More big-budget superhero films while everything else goes to streaming. Hopefully not but this isn't gonna cause studios to go back to lower budgets. At best, nothing changes, at worst, what I said before will hapen. 

I agree and another aspect is probably in the short term budgets will be going up with medical precautions likes tests, social distancing and the like. I imagine both Jurassic World 3 and The Batman will come in over original budget due to this, particularly Batman which has had to be delayed due to Pattinson catching Covid.
 

This also means studios won’t want to waste money implementing these measures on mid and budget fare for a while, we’ve already seen quite a few TV shows and movies be cancelled due to what is currently going on, probably for this reason as they were likely nearing production and would have been too much of a monetary commitment from the studios thus they got scraped. 
 

The studios are probably going forward on their safest bets right now which are big budget known IP. I think it’ll be a while before the studios put out these movies though in order to maximise returns, after its seems both Tenet and Mulan are going to make much less than originally anticipated. 

Edited September 14, 2020 by Jamiem

[TwoMisfits]

7 hours ago, RockyMountain said:

I think it might be quite a while before studios make another 200m dollar movie. I think for the next five to ten years 100-150m movies will be the largest productions they green light.

Yeah, I'm on your camp...for now, I see the tentpoles getting delayed til "proof of profit" comes from smaller films in theaters.  I see a lot more small and midbudget films getting done right now (like end of 2020) that can be sent PVOD if the price is right or to theaters or to day and date...aka, where the virus and market is will dictate release strategy...

 

Post-covid, we'll have to see.  Budgets might depend on how many theaters are still standing on the other side of the virus...

[filmlover]

It's too bad that the studios ended up sending most of their smaller films from earlier this year that would've made $15-40M even in a regular scenario (Antebellum, The High Note, etc.) to VOD cause the theaters could've used those as incoming product right now to keep the lights on as the tentpoles were held off instead of placing all their bets on one movie (and perhaps the wrong movie) to be their One True Savior. Hollywood gonna Hollywood still.

[RockyMountain]

There is no way they are going to risk making another 200m film unless the theater going audience proves they can support it. Tenet has made 29m domestically after two weeks and will probably end with a total WW cume around 300m or so. Sorry but until these films prove they can get at least somewhat close to a billion dollars again in this post covid era they will not make movies that expensive on a regular basis at all. And right now Tenet will probably make more than most as there has been a lot of buildup for that movie for the past six months.

[lorddemaxus]

14 hours ago, RockyMountain said:

There is no way they are going to risk making another 200m film unless the theater going audience proves they can support it. Tenet has made 29m domestically after two weeks and will probably end with a total WW cume around 300m or so. Sorry but until these films prove they can get at least somewhat close to a billion dollars again in this post covid era they will not make movies that expensive on a regular basis at all. And right now Tenet will probably make more than most as there has been a lot of buildup for that movie for the past six months.

200 mil films don't need to make a billion to be profitable lmao. You're implying that Tenet was expected to make 1 billion in the first place. It wasn't. And I doubt Tenet will make more than the similarly budgeted Black Widow or NTTD (both of which will easily be profitable even under the current situation). 

 

The idea that the virus is gonna affect the film industry for at least half a decade makes no sense either.

Edited September 15, 2020 by lorddemaxus

[Barnack]

15 hours ago, RockyMountain said:

There is no way they are going to risk making another 200m film unless the theater going audience proves they can support it.

To make this clear, you are predicting there is absolutely no way, no scenario that the production of Guardian of the Galaxy 3 or Thor 4 or Black Panther 2 or Aquaman 2 or Captain Marvel 2 or a Pixar movie start before a movie make near 1 billion in theater ? (And that Netflix will profit of the occasion to reduce talent cost and make cheaper movies, that make sense).

 

So under that prediction it is impossible that we learn that the next Spider Man production will start until a movie reach a giant mark ? If not we will learn that the planned fall shoot will be reported ?

 

I think that for the safest franchise sequel (that will have by now 2022 release date), that they will go for it.

 

[TwoMisfits]

6 hours ago, Barnack said:

To make this clear, you are predicting there is absolutely no way, no scenario that the production of Guardian of the Galaxy 3 or Thor 4 or Black Panther 2 or Aquaman 2 or Captain Marvel 2 or a Pixar movie start before a movie make near 1 billion in theater ? (And that Netflix will profit of the occasion to reduce talent cost and make cheaper movies, that make sense).

 

So under that prediction it is impossible that we learn that the next Spider Man production will start until a movie reach a giant mark ? If not we will learn that the planned fall shoot will be reported ?

 

I think that for the safest franchise sequel (that will have by now 2022 release date), that they will go for it.

 

I think it's more, nothing not already greelit and in production is getting a huge budget right now until something proves those budgets can pay off.  

 

All the movies "already in process" will still get made at those budgets (or maybe a little less, if the financial people really start the pressure directors to go leaner), but no new Pixar or Disney remake is getting that budget right now, so they have to think smaller and leaner...or they have to just wait...

 

And DEFINITELY no original random movie is sniffing those numbers...or probably even 75% of that number,..

[TwoMisfits]

So, speaking of openers, is any other area opening Infidel this weekend like mine is?  I didn't even know what the movie was (til I did Google-fu), but it's getting an open in my area at multiple theaters on Friday:)...

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, speaking of openers, is any other area opening Infidel this weekend like mine is?  I didn't even know what the movie was (til I did Google-fu), but it's getting an open in my area at multiple theaters on Friday:)...

Yeah, it's opening around here too. It's gonna make little.

[RockyMountain]

3 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

I think it's more, nothing not already greelit and in production is getting a huge budget right now until something proves those budgets can pay off.  

 

All the movies "already in process" will still get made at those budgets (or maybe a little less, if the financial people really start the pressure directors to go leaner), but no new Pixar or Disney remake is getting that budget right now, so they have to think smaller and leaner...or they have to just wait...

 

And DEFINITELY no original random movie is sniffing those numbers...or probably even 75% of that number,..

I told @Barnack that same exact thing yesterday in the coronavirus thread. Guess he is choosing to act like I never told him that in this new thread.

[Barnack]

4 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

I think it's more, nothing not already greelit and in production is getting a huge budget right now until something proves those budgets can pay off.  

 

Everything I named is yet to be in production no ?

 

1 hour ago, RockyMountain said:

I told @Barnack that same exact thing yesterday in the coronavirus thread. Guess he is choosing to act like I never told him that in this new thread.

I did try to look before for my example to make sure they were not already in production affair and made sure to not use movie that already had started to shoot but had to take a break for covid measure.

 

4 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

but no new Pixar or Disney remake is getting that budget right now

That I doubt, Pixar models of having thousand of employee releasing very few movies a year make them inherently ultra costly, if you start a pixar movie project now you have a between 2024/2026 release in mind, they could very well assume that COVID will be fully in our past by then.

Edited September 15, 2020 by Barnack

[Barnack]

4 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

And DEFINITELY no original random movie is sniffing those numbers...or probably even 75% of that number,..

Well that would have been probably true without COVID happening, were there any random original $200M movie planned for 2020-2021-2022 ? That something Nolan get or Disney Animation-Pixar (making them not random), not something that exist much.

 

Has for 150M one, did the Red Notice/Irishman model disappear with this situation ? (Maybe, has Netflix do not have to compete use giant budget to attract talent and projects has much)

[keysersoze123]

On 9/11/2020 at 9:53 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Tenet Day 7

MTC1 - 10055/360027 109K (2237 shows) 

MTC2 -  7483/261987 75K (1830 shows)

 

Tenet Day 14

MTC1 - 8100/316244 87.5K (2008 shows)

MTC2 - 5880/199523 62.5K (1401 shows)

 

@charlie Jatinder Around high teens weekly drop. Let us see how 3rd weekend hold is. 

[TwoMisfits]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Tenet Day 14

MTC1 - 8100/316244 87.5K (2008 shows)

MTC2 - 5880/199523 62.5K (1401 shows)

 

@charlie Jatinder Around high teens weekly drop. Let us see how 3rd weekend hold is. 

That actually looks amazing - if only it had started at a higher number...but it's still early in the, what, guaranteed 12 week run:)...