The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Tinalera]

Space Jam seems to be filling up pretty decently up here for Toronto (mind you how much of that is  Finally we can go to theatres! remains to be seen). Going to be interesting to see what other films that have been out for a bit will have Ontarians hitting the theatres, they might get a little boost.

[TwoMisfits]

Deadline has taken their Space Jam 2 expectation stand...https://deadline.com/2021/07/black-widow-monday-box-office-second-weekend-1234792134/

 

"Space Jam 2 is expected to be behind Black Widow at this point in time at the weekend B.O. with an estimated $20M at 3,950 theaters."

[Nikostar]

Tracking is going to be way off with Space Jam.

[narniadis]

35 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Deadline has taken their Space Jam 2 expectation stand...https://deadline.com/2021/07/black-widow-monday-box-office-second-weekend-1234792134/

 

"Space Jam 2 is expected to be behind Black Widow at this point in time at the weekend B.O. with an estimated $20M at 3,950 theaters."

I mean they are just quoting the tracking, nothing more or less. I will personally be surprised if its under 25m with how the presales are going, but you never know. 

[Inceptionzq]

Jungle Cruise Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

10

687

1.46%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
32	N/A	10004	0.32%	13	42

Edited July 14, 2021 by Inceptionzq

[TwoMisfits]

Space Jam 2 just put out a $5 off 1 ticket code at Atom - presales will skyrocket at MTC 1/2 today (I just bought 3 tickets - I said if this was cheap, I'd pay for my 2 wildly excited boys to go...and it is, so we are on Tuesday, instead of seeing the "cheap kid movie" of the week:)...

 

Posted in the movie thread for the fans, but here for the trackers, so they aren't shocked by sales at certain theaters...

Edited July 14, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[RRA]

12 minutes ago, narniadis said:

I mean they are just quoting the tracking, nothing more or less. I will personally be surprised if its under 25m with how the presales are going, but you never know. 

FWIW The last two major releases hit the bottom end of DL’s tracking. Can they make it 3 in a row?

[Inceptionzq]

Suicide Squad Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

44

661

6.66%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
122	N/A	8425	1.45%	13	39

 

F9 day 1 sales comp: 9.12M

 

I did the first update for F9 sales a little earlier in the day, posted about 45 minutes earlier. But still looks good for Suicide Squad, and it's missing a major theater.

[narniadis]

38 minutes ago, RRA said:

FWIW The last two major releases hit the bottom end of DL’s tracking. Can they make it 3 in a row?

Its possible, but the sales tracked in this thread would speak otherwise. Now, if the film literally plays way bigger in a couple of markets only that could have an effect, but Keysers share earlier with full sales for the 2 majors shows a big enough Friday at a minimum to make it as shocking as BW dropping over 40% Friday to Saturday. 

[Ryan Reynolds]

Space Jam gonna over-perform like TMNT 2014 , nostalgia is enough to drive opening weekend to big numbers

Edited July 15, 2021 by Ryan Reynolds

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric E Coyote said:

Escape Room: Tournament of Champions Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	42	145	5426	2.67%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 6

Total Seats Added Today: 629

Total Seats Sold Today: 51

 

Comp

1.576x of The Forever Purge T-2 (2.10M)

Escape Room: Tournament of Champions Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	42	256	5426	4.72%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 111

 

Comp

1.718x of The Forever Purge T-1 (2.28M)

 

We'll see how tomorrow fares, because Purge jumped up big time on the final day of sales. It's still doing way better than I would have expected, but good to have expecations in check.

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric E Coyote said:

Space Jam: A New Legacy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	97	1638	15295	10.71%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 51

Total Seats Added Today: 7,054

Total Seats Sold Today: 431

 

Comp

0.626x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-3 (6.08M)

3.022x of Cruella's Thu+Fri 2 Days Before Release (23.29M)

0.845x of F9's Thu 2 Days Before Release (6.00M)

Space Jam: A New Legacy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	110	2645	18015	14.68%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 13

Total Seats Added Today: 2,720

Total Sellouts Added Today: 2

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,007

 

Comp

0.909x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-2 (8.83M)

3.314x of Cruella's Thu+Fri 1 Day Before Release (25.55M)

1.047x of F9's Thu 1 Day Before Release (7.43M)

 

Bah gawd. And we still have one more day to go.

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric E Coyote said:

Snake Eyes Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	25	72	4947	1.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 14

 

Comp

0.101x of Mortal Kombat's Fri T-9 (922K)

0.113x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-9 (2.19M)

0.562x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-9 (4.33M)

Snake Eyes Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	26	77	5106	1.51%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 159

Total Seats Sold Today: 5

 

Comp

0.095x of Mortal Kombat's Fri T-8 (865K)

0.110x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-8 (2.13M)

0.475x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-8 (3.66M)

[Eric Duncan]

Jungle Cruise Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	32	18	6530	0.28%

 

Yeah, this is a bad start, but this won't be a very pre-sales driven title and won't really pick up until the week before release. I don't have any good day-to-day comps at this point, but it is about 27% of Cruella's Thu+Fri first day which would translate to about 2.07M. We'll see what happens from then on though expect things to be quiet

[Eric Duncan]

The Suicide Squad Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-22 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	25	116	5985	1.94%

 

Comp

0.270x of F9 T-22 Before Release (1.91M)

0.086x of Black Widow T-22 Before Release (1.14M)

 

Uh...huh. I'll admit I don't have a lot of good comps at this stage. I also know that this was overshadowed by the Loki finale, taking the attention away from CBM fans. I also ALSO know that social media reactions could give this a boost tomorrow.

 

But...yeah, this is not a good start. While Jungle Cruise's soft debut is understandable, this really should have made a bigger splash IMO. This isn't the end for this movie of course, but I expected better.

[keysersoze123]

On 7/13/2021 at 8:32 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Space Jam OD (T-3)

MTC1 - 38810/421982 341102.00 2720 shows

MTC2 - 39039/386529 391159.93 2929 shows

 

PS is really picking up big time. I just checked MTC2 today, but MTC1 has increased almost 4x in past 3-4 days and tomorrow I expect show count to increase big time. I think it should cross 100K PS in both MTC. Also the ratio of MTC1/2 shows its playing more like F9 than BW. I am expecting OD in low teens which should be enough to win friday comfortably and even the weekend. 

Space Jam OD (T-2)

MTC1 - 56208/469255 484810.00 3036 shows

MTC2 - 53309/401207 531387.45 3080 shows

 

It did not accelerate as much as I thought yesterday. Also showcount is quite low for an opener. Still I really like MTC ratio. Really strong in MTC2 as well. I will may be reduce my expectations to high 20's OW if its PS driven and walkups are not that great. We will know for sure on friday.  

 

Still think its winning this weekend. Just by MTC1 BW is looking at 5.25m wednesday. I dont know if it will stay flat tomorrow or drop further. Still wont be enough to challenge Space Jam. 

[Ledmonkey96]

4 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Space Jam gonna over-perform like TMNT 2014 , nostalgia is enough to drive opening weekend to big numbers

Nostalgia would point toward it being front-loaded and pre-sale loaded i think. 

[lorddemaxus]

45 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Space Jam OD (T-2)

MTC1 - 56208/469255 484810.00 3036 shows

MTC2 - 53309/401207 531387.45 3080 shows

 

It did not accelerate as much as I thought yesterday. Also showcount is quite low for an opener. Still I really like MTC ratio. Really strong in MTC2 as well. I will may be reduce my expectations to high 20's OW if its PS driven and walkups are not that great. We will know for sure on friday.  

 

Still think its winning this weekend. Just by MTC1 BW is looking at 5.25m wednesday. I dont know if it will stay flat tomorrow or drop further. Still wont be enough to challenge Space Jam. 

Are you considering the Ontario reopening in your predictions? Should help at least a little bit.

Edited July 15, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[keysersoze123]

27 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Are you considering the Ontario reopening in your predictions? Should help at least a little bit.

Canada as a whole is like 8% of overall BO(at least during OW). Ontario would be what 3rd of that. it makes a difference(Lower MTC ratio) but what makes bigger difference is how walk ups go. Plus its reopening after a while. Would we see huge crowds asap or would it be more gradual. So for now I am not considering it in my projections. 

[charlie Jatinder]

17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ontario would be what 3rd of that

Ontario is 4-4.5% of NA.