The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[WrathOfHan]

58 minutes ago, Snake Eric said:

Just as a quick heads up that this week at work I'm looking to be a little bit busier than I usually am, so I won't track Green Knight or Stillwater this weekend. I know that sounds disappointing, but that's life sometimes. Hope you guys understand.

I am also in this boat. I have a very big job interview tomorrow and am currently in the process of moving back home, so I may or may not have time for another update until later on Weds or Thurs.

[Eric Duncan]

14 hours ago, Snake Eric said:

Jungle Cruise Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	37	149	7571	1.97%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 31

 

Comp

0.116x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-4 (2.26M)

0.369x of Cruella's Thu+Fri (2.84M)

1.419x of Snake Eyes T-4 (1.99M)

Jungle Cruise Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	41	179	7959	2.25%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 4

Total Seats Added Today: 388

Total Seats Sold Today: 30

 

Comp

0.106x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-3 (2.05M)

0.354x of Cruella's Thu+Fri (2.73M)

1.193x of Snake Eyes T-3 (1.67M)

 

Well the pattern the last few days has been "good day, bad day, good day, bad day", so I guess tomorrow will be a good day? Things seem a bit rosier with other people's comps and Friday is reportedly much stronger, so let's just hope for the best.

[Eric Duncan]

14 hours ago, Snake Eric said:

The Suicide Squad Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	35	299	8111	3.67%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1

 

Comp

0.346x of F9 T-11 (2.45M)

0.142x of Black Widow T-11 (1.88M)

The Suicide Squad Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	35	313	8111	3.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 14

 

Comp

0.351x of F9 T-10 (2.49M)

0.141x of Black Widow T-10 (1.87M)

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I’m not tracking yet but my Cinemark has 6 Jungle Cruise showings on Thursday. Only 4 tickets sold

[Porthos]

7 hours ago, Cap said:

Apparently they are an independent chain from Massachusetts. I think they only have like two theaters. So I wonder if they bought the whole franchise, or they just bought this theater.

 

Was that a dare, Cap?

 

*thinks*

 

You know that really did sound like a dare to me. 

 

*some deep deep deeeeeeeeeep sleuthing later*

 

Okay, I haven't found out if they bought all eight former locations from Cinemagic or not, but they're bringing back at least one other location as well:

 

A New Theater Chain is Taking Over The Former Westbrook, Maine Cinemagic Location

Found out previously that they were going on a bit of a buying/renovating spree during the COVID shutdown as they also took over a couple of theaters in Hartford.  Depending on just how deep pocketed the owners are, it wouldn't surprise me too much if they are in fact slowly trying to grab all of these other locations, given their M.O. in Hartford.  Did do some cursory checking at other Cinemagic locations and couldn't find any other news stories.  

 

Presently they have eight locations according to that news article (only seven are listed on their website, currently), and it looks to soon be ten.  

 

Just have to hope for your sake (as well as movie theater lovers in your neck of the woods) that they're not expanding too quickly/over-extending themselves, as you don't want to be in this position again in a few months time.

[Cap]

@Porthos

 

I can’t believe you found that when I couldn’t. I am very impressed. Now we need to go check out the South Portland theater to see if there is a flyer on it.
 

TBH, I don’t think that theater needs to re-open. It’s smaller, and And it’s not really in a good location anymore since basically no one goes to the mall.  It feels like you could easily strip that theater and sell off the equipment.  
 

But the theater in Westbrook, which features the largest non-IMAX screen and largest auditorium in the state, and the Saco theater, which features the IMAX, are prime turnkey businesses. 

[Porthos]

On 7/25/2021 at 11:27 PM, Porthos said:

 

The Suicide Squad Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	13587	13952	365	2.62%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

14

 

T-11 Adjusted Comp #1

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp		Ont Comp
AQP II	58.27		34	623		4/71	2438/3061	20.35%		2.80m		2.93m
TSS (AQP adj)	---		14	363		0/81	13454/13817	2.63%		---		---

ONTARIO COMP NOTE: Ont Comp is the number given in the Comp column/0.955 to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market.

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (QP adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track.

 

T-11 Adjusted Comp #2 

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp		Ont Comp
F9	33.61		59	1080		0/79	11335/12415	8.70%		2.39m		2.50m
BW	13.12		108	2766		0/119	16494/19260	14.36%		1.73m		1.81m
TSS (BW adj)	---		14	363		0/69	11347/11710	3.10%		---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (BW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's and BW's track.

 

EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP:  1.20539x of Hobbs & Shaw at T-11* [5.94m after adjusting for pandemic era environment]

* at theaters/showings I had the same level of tracking info.

 

The Suicide Squad Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	82	13689	14077	388	2.76%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	125
Total Seats Sold Today	23

 

T-10 Adjusted Comp #1

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp		Ont Comp
AQP II	57.53		48	671		4/74	2458/3129	21.44%		2.76m		2.89m
TSS (AQP adj)	---		23	386		0/82	13556/13942	2.77%		---		---

ONTARIO COMP NOTE: Ont Comp is the number given in the Comp column/0.955 to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market.

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (QP adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track.

 

T-10 Adjusted Comp #2 

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp		Ont Comp
F9	33.54		62	1142		0/79	11275/12417	9.20%		2.38m		2.49m
BW	13.43		142	2852		0/119	16352/19260	15.10%		1.77m		1.86m
TSS (BW adj)	---		20	383		0/70	11452/11835	3.24%		---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (BW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's and BW's track.

 

EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP:  1.19811x of Hobbs & Shaw at T-11* [5.91m after adjusting for pandemic era environment]

* at theaters/showings I had the same level of tracking info.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/26/2021 at 8:40 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Jungle Cruise	T-3	Jacksonville	5	27	4,984	79	10	1.59%
		Phoenix	6	23	4,221	78	5	1.85%
		Raleigh	7	28	3,374	82	20	2.43%
Jungle Cruise Total			18	78	12,579	239	35	1.90%
Stillwater	T-3	Jacksonville	5	8	1,273	10	2	0.79%
		Phoenix	6	8	676	8	3	1.18%
		Raleigh	6	10	1,016	8	0	0.79%
Stillwater Total			17	26	2,965	26	5	0.88%
Suicide Squad	T-11	Jacksonville	6	21	3,964	84	3	2.12%
		Phoenix	6	19	3,761	104	4	2.77%
		Raleigh	7	23	2,986	114	1	3.82%
Suicide Squad Total			19	63	10,711	302	8	2.82%
The Green Knight	T-3	Jacksonville	5	8	1,044	31	11	2.97%
		Phoenix	5	7	895	28	6	3.13%
		Raleigh	6	11	1,304	28	6	2.15%
The Green Knight Total			16	26	3,243	87	23	2.68%

 

Movie	Day	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Jungle Cruise	T-2	Jacksonville	5	27	4,984	116	37	2.33%
		Phoenix	6	23	4,221	95	17	2.25%
		Raleigh	7	29	3,465	117	35	3.38%
Jungle Cruise Total			18	79	12,670	328	89	2.59%
Stillwater	T-2	Jacksonville	5	8	1,273	13	3	1.02%
		Phoenix	6	8	676	9	1	1.33%
		Raleigh	7	11	1,111	10	2	0.90%
Stillwater Total			18	27	3,060	32	6	1.05%
Suicide Squad	T-10	Jacksonville	6	21	3,964	85	1	2.14%
		Phoenix	6	19	3,761	107	3	2.84%
		Raleigh	7	23	2,986	124	10	4.15%
Suicide Squad Total			19	63	10,711	316	14	2.95%
The Green Knight	T-2	Jacksonville	6	9	1,213	65	34	5.36%
		Phoenix	5	7	895	50	22	5.59%
		Raleigh	7	12	1,370	47	19	3.43%
The Green Knight Total			18	28	3,478	162	75	4.66%

 

I'm not sure what I expected, but it certainly wasn't Green Knight having sold nearly half as many tickets as Jungle Cruise by Tuesday morning. 

 

Comps:

 

Green Knight T-2

Old - 1.23x (1.84m)

Escape Room 2 - 1.588x (1.91m)

Average - 1.87m

 

Stillwater T-2

12 Mighty Orphans - 1.39x (no preview, 900k weekend)

Roadrunner - .45x (90k)

 

Jungle Cruise T-2

Snake Eyes - 1.43x (2m)

F9 - .19x (1.35m)

BW - .08x (1.05m)

Average - 1.47m

[DAJK]

Jungle Cruise was only able to manage to squeeze into a tiny screen at my theater. Going to have a lot of sell-outs this weekend, and it can only go so high here. Weird move by Disney lol

[Valonqar]

So of new releases, Jungle Cruise should be #1 and Green Knight #2 based on sales? Stillwater looks stillborn. I'm testing whether I'm finally reading the tracking right. 

[AJG]

45 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Stillwater looks stillborn. 

 

Sundays Variety Headline

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, AJG said:

 

Sundays Variety Headline

 

 I think chance of that happening is very high. 

Edited July 27, 2021 by Valonqar

[Tinalera]

Jungle Cruise

Toronto Ontario 

Taken Tues July 27 for Thursday July 29 Previews

 

12 Shows Total

 

    Yonge Dundas

   Seats Sold      Total Seats

   18                  385

 

Yonge Eglinton

13                     560

 

Eglinton Town

22                  597

 

Queensway

 25                 691

 

Empress Walk

18                  661

 

Yorkdale

31                  557

 

Total Sold 127

Total Seats 3451

 

Only one theatre showing friday advance right now (Yorkdale) and no sales at all at this point. 

 

No Advance ticket sales at all for The Suicide Squad yet

 

  

Edited July 27, 2021 by Tinalera

[DAJK]

34 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Jungle Cruise

Toronto Ontario 

Taken Tues July 27 for Thursday July 29 Previews

 

12 Shows Total

 

    Yonge Dundas

   Seats Sold      Total Seats

   18                  385

 

Yonge Eglinton

13                     560

 

Eglinton Town

22                  597

 

Queensway

 25                 691

 

Empress Walk

18                  661

 

Yorkdale

31                  557

 

Total Sold 127

Total Seats 3451

 

Only one theatre showing friday advance right now (Yorkdale) and no sales at all at this point. 

 

No Advance ticket sales at all for The Suicide Squad yet

 

  

SS tickets go on sale there July 29 I think? Sometime this week for sure but off the top of my head I think it’s the 29th.

[katnisscinnaplex]

	Th	Fr	Sat	Sun	Total	Comp Prediction
Stillwater	13	14	23	9	59
Roadrunner	29	36	24	14	103	$1,139,212.67
Green Knight	65	37	22	11	135
Old	26	52	19	16	113	$20,136,187.83
Escape 2	32	31	20	4	87	$13,657,330.86
Jungle Cruise	116	182	131	53	482
Snake Eyes	74	63	42	35	214	$30,108,903
F9	489	674	443	197	1,803	$18,724,795
BW	1,310	972	584	278	3,144	$12,320,790

 

Jacksonville sales by day; all taken Tuesday morning before release.  Added a column to calculate the weekend using that comps sales to OW multiplier.  I know this isn't the best metric, but it gives a general comparison to how other movies have been performing at this point.   Green Knight is looking much more frontloaded at this point than the horror comps I've been using; it'll be interesting to see where the Thu-Fri ratios break down by the end of the week. 

[Tinalera]

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

SS tickets go on sale there July 29 I think? Sometime this week for sure but off the top of my head I think it’s the 29th.

Okay I will check wed. Thanks for heads up on that info!

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

@katnisscinnaplex data also shows JC Friday very strong. 4x previews is possible. My guess is something 2-8-9-7 for a $26 million OW. 

 

Now TSS will definitely have a higher preview than JC. But it's Friday multi will also be worse. If there isn't a significant bump from reviews tomorrow I could see something like 3.5-8.5-8-6 which...would also be a $26 million OW. In the worst case I could see TSS opening below what JC does which if you told me that a few weeks ago would have been crazy. But I still think it'll probably go higher, though not as high as the Sacramento H&S comp suggests (lol). 

Edited July 27, 2021 by Menor

[RRA]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

@katnisscinnaplex data also shows JC Friday very strong. 4x previews is possible. My guess is something 2-8-9-7 for a $26 million OW. 

 

Now TSS will definitely have a higher preview than JC. But it's Friday multi will also be worse. If there isn't a significant bump from reviews tomorrow I could see something like 3.5-8.5-8-6 which...would also be a $26 million OW. In the worst case I could see TSS opening below what JC does which if you told me that a few weeks ago would have been crazy. But I still think it'll probably go higher, though not as high as the Sacramento H&S comp suggests (lol). 

If your forecast comes true, people playing down the impact of delta variant in the news are even more foolish than usual.

 

[CJohn]

Jungle Cruise looks to be DOA. I guess it will make most of its money on Disney+, the Delta variant is throwing everything off the rails. People are right to be afraid again.

Edited July 27, 2021 by CJohn

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Green Knight has sold same number of tickets for Thursday at my Cinemark; 4