The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Time to Die Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

127

1690

7.51%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

179

1610

11.12%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
696	58	18005	3.87%	15	105

 

AMCs sold	520
Cinemarks sold	58
Regals sold	114
Harkins	4

 

Wednesday:

Total

181

1429

 

Suicide Squad comp: 7.05M

Fast 9 comp: 6.90M

No Time to Die Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

142

1690

8.40%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

201

1610

12.48%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
786	90	18005	4.37%	15	105

 

AMCs sold	578
Cinemarks sold	66
Regals sold	138
Harkins	4

 

Wednesday: 

Total

185

1429

 

Suicide Squad comp: 7.13M

Fast 9 comp: 7.23M

[Tinalera]

7 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Time to Die Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

142

1690

8.40%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

201

1610

12.48%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
786	90	18005	4.37%	15	105

 

AMCs sold	578
Cinemarks sold	66
Regals sold	138
Harkins	4

 

Wednesday: 

Total

185

1429

 

Suicide Squad comp: 7.13M

Fast 9 comp: 7.23M

I like this setup of just each theatre sold as opposed to my current listing each showing and screening type. I don't know how important it is for you and the others to have the vip/avx/reg designation-if that's not as important as just having the numbers total, I might steal-er borrow your way and just list total amts for each theatre. Better than scrollilng down a bunch of showtimes I would think

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

I like this setup of just each theatre sold as opposed to my current listing each showing and screening type. I don't know how important it is for you and the others to have the vip/avx/reg designation-if that's not as important as just having the numbers total, I might steal-er borrow your way and just list total amts for each theatre. Better than scrollilng down a bunch of showtimes I would think

 

I think that way is better. The way you post it now it's a bit long to read the whole thing, and generally the aggregate is the more interesting number anyway. 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Time to Die Megaplex

 

T-6 days Wednesday: 395(+60)/2115 in 4 theaters

 

T-7 days Thursday: 894(+111)/20505(+168) in 14 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 6.58M

Fast 9 comp: 9.29M

 

T-8 days Friday: 1405(+143)/36586 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 34.75M

Fast 9 comp: 37.98M

 

Probably just gonna leave SC for the whole run. Mostly for that Friday comp.

No Time to Die Megaplex

 

T-5 days Wednesday: 418(+23)/2115 in 4 theaters

 

T-6 days Thursday: 987(+93)/20505 in 14 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 6.72M

Fast 9 comp: 9.48M

 

T-7 days Friday: 1569(+164)/36586 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 34.89M

Fast 9 comp: 37.67M

[Inceptionzq]

13 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

I like this setup of just each theatre sold as opposed to my current listing each showing and screening type. I don't know how important it is for you and the others to have the vip/avx/reg designation-if that's not as important as just having the numbers total, I might steal-er borrow your way and just list total amts for each theatre. Better than scrollilng down a bunch of showtimes I would think

 

Yeah I don't think showing the different screening types is important. Regional tracking already has enough variation that it likely doesn't make much of a difference worrying about that. Plus the best comps for each movie should be close enough for the 2D/PLF split anyways. Lemme know if you've got any questions about my setup, I'm happy to help 👍🏽

[keysersoze123]

Venom 2 Friday 430PM PST update

MTC1 - 300723/1105505 4496252.01 6072 shows

MTC2 - 262423/1076167 3033775.76 7612 shows

 

Only comps I will consider is Shang Chi as earlier comps did not work yesterday and I probably am tracking few more theaters from SC onwards. 

Shang Chi Friday Final

MTC1 -  337710/1076502 4788913.01 6136 shows

MTC2 - 249327/952803 2865832.95 6694 shows

 

Run rate should be close to peak at this time. Let us see how things go. My final SC update was around 845PM PST and so I will try to get a number at similar time frame. I am not putting in a number except to say deadline is low balling. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

27 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Venom 2 Friday 430PM PST update

MTC1 - 300723/1105505 4496252.01 6072 shows

MTC2 - 262423/1076167 3033775.76 7612 shows

 

Only comps I will consider is Shang Chi as earlier comps did not work yesterday and I probably am tracking few more theaters from SC onwards. 

Shang Chi Friday Final

MTC1 -  337710/1076502 4788913.01 6136 shows

MTC2 - 249327/952803 2865832.95 6694 shows

 

Run rate should be close to peak at this time. Let us see how things go. My final SC update was around 845PM PST and so I will try to get a number at similar time frame. I am not putting in a number except to say deadline is low balling. 

I think it's heading for ~9m between the two MTC. Around 24-25m Friday hopefully. Charlie should have a good estimate soon. 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, Tinalera said:

I like this setup of just each theatre sold as opposed to my current listing each showing and screening type. I don't know how important it is for you and the others to have the vip/avx/reg designation-if that's not as important as just having the numbers total, I might steal-er borrow your way and just list total amts for each theatre. Better than scrollilng down a bunch of showtimes I would think

You can make a sheet and put all the information you want there. You never know what you need in future. For posting here, just chose a format.

This is what my raw data sheet look like

For making posts, I have simply chose this format and put data there.

[keysersoze123]

40 minutes ago, Menor said:

I think it's heading for ~9m between the two MTC. Around 24-25m Friday hopefully. Charlie should have a good estimate soon. 

[Tinalera]

Thanks for the feedback everyone   Happy to hear just main numbers are the thing and I will probably head down that path.  Will cut down on my time as far as worrying about being individualizing. Ill probably play around with a couple of different formats over the next little while to see what works and what I get to feel comfortable with. But I appreciate people taking the time to respond and give me things to think about and work with.

[Tinalera]

So just to use an idea from the numbers I posted before (these aren't new, Im just playing out a different format)

 

 

Toronto area (Yonge Dundas. Scotiaplace, Varsity, Yonge Eglinton, Yorkdale, Eglinton Town, Queensway, Empress walk)

 

Total Seats Sold 2481

 

 

Total Seats Available 13572

 

 1.43 percent

Edited October 2, 2021 by Tinalera

[keysersoze123]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Venom 2 Friday 430PM PST update

MTC1 - 300723/1105505 4496252.01 6072 shows

MTC2 - 262423/1076167 3033775.76 7612 shows

Shang Chi Friday Final

MTC1 -  337710/1076502 4788913.01 6136 shows

MTC2 - 249327/952803 2865832.95 6694 shows

 

Venom 2 Friday Final

MTC1 - 383458/1109652 5702444.66 6118 shows

MTC2 - 350018/1087309 4076252.41 7666 shows

 

It did slow down in the end. At one point I thought it will do > 10m combined at MTC. Still solid walkups(though not as spectacular as yesterday). Since @RthBond has made his presence felt, there is little point in extrapolating these numbers except that it did > 15% at MTC1 which is a great number. That said there are markets/chains it would not have done so well. But for RTH I would have predicted 24.5m but its lower from his post. 

Edited October 2, 2021 by keysersoze123

[charlie Jatinder]

Was seeing 22.5 mid day but your numbers were strong so refrained from posting here. Very very MTC loaded numbers.

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric Soprano said:

No Time to Die Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	75	1056	14653	7.21%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 115

 

Comp

1.001x of F9 T-7 (7.11M)

0.399x of Black Widow T-7 (5.27M)

2.545x of The Suicide Squad T-7 (10.43M)

0.686x of Shang-Chi T-7 (6.03M)

No Time to Die Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	75	1139	14653	7.77%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 83

 

Comp

0.998x of F9 T-6 (7.09M)

0.397x of Black Widow T-6 (5.24M)

2.471x of The Suicide Squad T-6 (10.13M)

0.681x of Shang-Chi T-6 (5.99M)

1.020x of Venom 2 T-6 (11.83M)

[Eric Duncan]

Halloween Kills Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	22	283	4052	6.98%

 

Comp

0.704x of A Quiet Place 2 Thu+Fri T-13 (13.63M)

3.369x of The Conjuring 3 T-13 (33.03M)

0.360x of F9 T-13 (2.56M)

1.029x of The Suicide Squad T-13 (4.22M)

0.419x of Venom 2 T-13 (4.86M)

 

So yeah the horror comps are pretty wonky, because those include full-on Fridays. And while I tried to add in some adult-centric tentpoles, those aren't very good either. It'll probably be a real hazy cloud until we add in more horror comps the weekend of. But honestly, this seems really, really good. While a decline should still happen, so far things don't indicate any major drop, which is above my expectations. Even before the pandemic I was feeling 35M or something for its opening. Really thought the new one had no hook since the last one was all focused on nostalgia, but I'm glad to be proven wrong here.

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Friday PS END

MTC1 - 143167/1090204 2262737.01 5823 shows (+46539)

MTC2 -  121076/1049755 1485982.14 7495 shows (+41039)

Venom 2 Saturday PS END

MTC1 - 156102/1193801 2246022.62 6470 shows

MTC2 - 128323/1103495 1487219.84 7801 shows

 

WOW. it will increase tomorrow minus previews. I am thinking 10% increase is in order looking at how strong its walkups are. At least its going to be easy to project as we will be looking at relative to today's BO. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Should go for 27-28M SAT. Nice. 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

But for RTH I would have predicted 24.5m but its lower from his post. 

That would be correct. Thinking 29M SAT now.

[Porthos]

On 9/30/2021 at 11:22 PM, Porthos said:

 

No Time To Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	144	21051	22353	1302	5.82%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

130

 

T-7 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II	140.02		103	922		2/85	2631/3553	25.95%		7.04m
F9	87.91		91	1414		0/86	11869/13283	10.09%		6.54m
NTTD (AQP adj)	---		130	1291		0/144	20912/22203	5.81%		---
NTTD (F9 adj)	---		122	1243		0/123	18060/19303	6.44%		---

COMP NOTE: Both the AQP II comp and the F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX showings which were not tracked at that time while NTTD (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps.

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

 

Matinee: 58/1644 [3.49% sold] | 4.45% of all tickets sold

Regal:   287/7504 [3.82% sold] [+43 tickets]

 

No Time To Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	145	21026	22453	1427	6.36%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	100
Total Seats Sold Today	125

 

T-6 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II	141.99		71	993		5/82	2454/3447	28.81%		7.14m
F9	91.49		79	1493		0/87	11891/13384	11.16%		6.80m
NTTD (AQP adj)	---		119	1410		0/144	20893/22303	6.32%		---
NTTD (F9 adj)	---		123	1366		0/124	18037/19403	7.04%		---

COMP NOTE: Both the AQP II comp and the F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX showings which were not tracked at that time while NTTD (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps.

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

 

Matinee: 65/1772 [3.67% sold] | 4.56% of all tickets sold

Regal:   306/7496 [4.08% sold] [+19 tickets]

Edited October 13, 2021 by Porthos

[Chrysaor]

Some really fantastic looking numbers so far this weekend. If you had asked me four weeks ago, I would have thought a $60MM opening for Venom: LTBC was pretty optimistic (even following Shang-Chi's success). Even a week ago, I wouldn't have thought there was a slim chance of it surpassing the original's gross. However, the signs just kept getting better and better as the week went on, and thankfully it looks like that's paying off in an excellent opening night. Going into the weekend my prediction was $77MM DOM for Venom and $105MM INT for No Time to Die. Glad to see that it looks like there's a real chance of at least Venom surpassing my expectations.

 

The real question after this is whether the upcoming non-superhero tentpoles like NTTD and Dune will be able to have strong openings as well. I'm confident in the former and hopeful for the latter (that it will at least have a stronger than expected opening considering it's HBO Max availability). I really think by this point that anything targeting the 18-34 demo that has sufficient hype and solid reviews is capable of grossing at least 66% of pre-pandemic figures, quite possibly significantly closer to normal.

Edited October 2, 2021 by Chrysaor