The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

18 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

You are expecting Venom 2 to have higher skew at MTC than BW(about 44%) and Shang Chi(about 48%). Looking at how its MTC1/2 ratio is looking, I think it will do better than BW. There is no way it will be > 50%. Even Canada trackers are saying its doing well over there.

If you are referring to Friday? I didn't really looked for MTC ratios for those numbers. The Friday final pre-sales will most likely be $8.5M, I am expecting 2.5-2.6x PSm. 

 

Also, Venom 1 THU was 31.5% of OD, don't see why Venom 2 be less than that.

[Menor the Destroyer]

18 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

you are comparing thu to fri. That is the factor with small run time and more shows for venom2. But daily sales for Venom 2 being so much stronger means it will comfortably beat SC on all days. I am thinking 10.5-11m previews and OW somewhere in 80s. 

Well it won't beat SC Sunday unless it goes utterly bonkers but should beat it on Thu-Fri-Sat yeah. I am in between you and Charlie. Thinking 10.5-23.5-27.5-17.5. Around 79 million OW. 

Edited September 30, 2021 by Menor

[Cmasterclay]

Thinking 10-22-25-16 for a 73m OW, which is very solid. 

 

Many Saints selling well here and with the local trackers despite (or because of) the low showing count. Must be doing really bad in rurals to be that bad in MTC.

[WrathOfHan]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Thinking 10-22-25-16 for a 73m OW, which is very solid. 

 

Many Saints selling well here and with the local trackers despite (or because of) the low showing count. Must be doing really bad in rurals to be that bad in MTC.

Fully preparing for the demo breakdown to be 50%+ 18-35 like Nobody had.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 9/9/2021 at 10:42 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Day one comps for Venom

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	% Sold
T-21	Suicide Squad	Jacksonville	5	20	3,795	32	0.84%
		Phoenix	5	16	3,146	52	1.65%
		Raleigh	7	23	3,086	56	1.81%
	Suicide Squad Total		17	59	10,027	140	1.40%
T-21	Venom 2	Jacksonville	5	51	8,576	65	0.76%
		Phoenix	6	46	8,738	83	0.95%
		Raleigh	7	31	4,117	74	1.80%
	Venom 2 Total		18	128	21,431	222	1.04%

 

Somehow, T-21 for F9 was my first day of tracking sales; I don't have show counts but F9 had sold 272 tickets in these markets through T-21.  I didn't have time to grab Shang-Chi day 1 sales in Jacksonville or Phoenix, but I have Raleigh down for 175 tickets ~42%.  

 

Rough comps for Venom 2

Shang-Chi (day 1 Raleigh only) - .42x (3.7m)

TSS (day 1 = T-21) - 1.586x (6.5m)

F9 (day ? = T-21) - .816x (5.79m)

 

Average - 5.33m

 

Can probably throw out the SC comp at least until I had full numbers.  Let's say around 6m projection just from day 1 of sales.   As others have mentioned, there are a ton of showtimes, enough to warrant some broad comparisons against final numbers...

 

Venom previews (as of today)

Standard - 1,920 theaters; 9,741 shows

3D - 831 theaters; 1,543 shows

IMAX - 286 theaters; 783 shows

Total: 1,934 unique theaters; 12,067 shows

 

For comparison, here are my highest final preview show counts (done Friday morning after previews)

 

Black Widow - 23,129 (3,409 theaters)

Shang-Chi - 15,697 (3,523)

F9 - 15,241 (3,491)

A Quiet Place 2 - 15,220 (3,320)

Venom 2 - 12,067 (1,934)

The Suicide Squad - 9,701 (3,604)

Jungle Cruise - 9,677 (3,334)

Cruella - 9,435 (3,376)

Free Guy - 8,348 (3,318)

 

Could reach BW volume of shows by preview time.

 

I'll have a final showtimes report tomorrow, but I wanted to check in how previews were looking overall in US for my theater sample and update my day 1 numbers.  Venom 2 is closing in on BW number of shows and still has ~400 theaters to report.  Final numbers should put it in the top spot for what I've tracked.

 

Here are my highest final preview show counts (done Friday morning after previews)

 

Black Widow - 23,129 (3,409 theaters)

Venom 2 - 21,124 (3,010)

Shang-Chi - 15,697 (3,523)

F9 - 15,241 (3,491)

A Quiet Place 2 - 15,220 (3,320)

The Suicide Squad - 9,701 (3,604)

Jungle Cruise - 9,677 (3,334)

Cruella - 9,435 (3,376)

Free Guy - 8,348 (3,318)

 

Standard, Dolby, Other - 18,278

IMAX - 937

3D - 1,909

 

Breakdown of show times; nothing too surprising with 46% of shows starting between 6pm and 9pm.

 

Time	Shows	%
4:00	2061	9.76%
4:01-4:59	2073	9.81%
5:00-5:59	2457	11.63%
6:00-6:59	2963	14.03%
7:00-7:59	4307	20.39%
8:00-8:59	2551	12.08%
9:00-9:59	2792	13.22%
10:00-10:59	1676	7.93%
11:00+	244	1.16%

[keysersoze123]

25 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

If you are referring to Friday? I didn't really looked for MTC ratios for those numbers. The Friday final pre-sales will most likely be $8.5M, I am expecting 2.5-2.6x PSm. 

 

Also, Venom 1 THU was 31.5% of OD, don't see why Venom 2 be less than that.

All days you are projecting MTC1+2 > 50% for Venom 2 which is improbable. 

[Cmasterclay]

14 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Fully preparing for the demo breakdown to be 50%+ 18-35 like Nobody had.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/29/magazine/sopranos.html

[keysersoze123]

41 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

If you are referring to Friday? I didn't really looked for MTC ratios for those numbers. The Friday final pre-sales will most likely be $8.5M, I am expecting 2.5-2.6x PSm. 

 

Also, Venom 1 THU was 31.5% of OD, don't see why Venom 2 be less than that.

Its not unprecedented for sequel to have better preview ratio. May be its expanding its audience base. My math is simple. Its PS is stronger than Shang Chi with much better trend. Shang Chi did 20.8 million and with better walkups I think Venom 2 can do 24m+. We will know tomorrow for sure. 

[MrPink]

When did Venom 1's previews start?

 

The 4pm start here makes it seem really difficult for this to have a better ratio

[charlie Jatinder]

55 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

All days you are projecting MTC1+2 > 50% for Venom 2 which is improbable. 

oh you mean pre-sales? those would be 50%+. smaller chains have better PSm than MTCs. it was same case for other films as well. 

[keysersoze123]

10 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Venom 2

Previews(T-1)

MTC1 - 105386/694819 1723845.68 3758 shows (+25899)

MTC2 - 83346/686539 1111332.01 5082 shows (+22446)

Quick morning update. MTC1 is at 117097 while MTC2 is at 93147. Combined gross is around 3.15m between 2 MTC. I would if this was final its previews would be around 7.5m. But I expect it to go above 4.5m.  So around 10.5m previews. 

 

I think its at a nice pace which will accelerate as shows start at east coast. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Quick morning update. MTC1 is at 117097 while MTC2 is at 93147. Combined gross is around 3.15m between 2 MTC. I would if this was final its previews would be around 7.5m. But I expect it to go above 4.5m.  So around 10.5m previews. 

 

I think its at a nice pace which will accelerate as shows start at east coast. 

It's a strong pace. Though 4PM previews will be strong in the morning but it's so strong that even adjusting for that doesn't even matter much. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

Thinking 10-22-25-16 for a 73m OW, which is very solid. 

 

Many Saints selling well here and with the local trackers despite (or because of) the low showing count. Must be doing really bad in rurals to be that bad in MTC.

MTC1 might be better. MTC2 skews to family films. 

[DAJK]

If the cutoff for preview #s was RIGHT NOW (keep in mind I'm on the West Coast so it's only 9:30 AM here), Venom 2 already would be at 7.7M Thursday in my area as per my comps. Only going to go up from there.

 

Will update in about 8 hours, and I'll see what I can gather from elsewhere in Canada, get a more clear picture of where this is headed.

[titanic2187]

just realised Venom 2's 2nd trailer has more views on YT than the first trailer, this is kind of unusual and normally signal genuine interest in the film.   

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, MrPink said:

When did Venom 1's previews start?

 

The 4pm start here makes it seem really difficult for this to have a better ratio

 

5pm previews so not terribly different.  Did have Columbus Day/Indigenous People's Day Weekend, though.  Not exactly the biggest holiday weekend out there, but probably mattered at the edges. 

[MrPink]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

5pm previews so not terribly different.  Did have Columbus Day/Indigenous People's Day Weekend, though.  Not exactly the biggest holiday weekend out there, but probably mattered at the edges. 

 

BIG holiday in my neck of the woods. 

 

Spoiler

Get to spend it doing house cleaning this year 

 

[poweranimals]

2 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

I'll have a final showtimes report tomorrow, but I wanted to check in how previews were looking overall in US for my theater sample and update my day 1 numbers.  Venom 2 is closing in on BW number of shows and still has ~400 theaters to report.  Final numbers should put it in the top spot for what I've tracked.

 

Here are my highest final preview show counts (done Friday morning after previews)

 

Black Widow - 23,129 (3,409 theaters)

Venom 2 - 21,124 (3,010)

Shang-Chi - 15,697 (3,523)

F9 - 15,241 (3,491)

A Quiet Place 2 - 15,220 (3,320)

The Suicide Squad - 9,701 (3,604)

Jungle Cruise - 9,677 (3,334)

Cruella - 9,435 (3,376)

Free Guy - 8,348 (3,318)

 

Standard, Dolby, Other - 18,278

IMAX - 937

3D - 1,909

 

Breakdown of show times; nothing too surprising with 46% of shows starting between 6pm and 9pm.

 

Time	Shows	%
4:00	2061	9.76%
4:01-4:59	2073	9.81%
5:00-5:59	2457	11.63%
6:00-6:59	2963	14.03%
7:00-7:59	4307	20.39%
8:00-8:59	2551	12.08%
9:00-9:59	2792	13.22%
10:00-10:59	1676	7.93%
11:00+	244	1.16%

Why does Venom 2 have less theaters than the others?

[katnisscinnaplex]

20 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

Why does Venom 2 have less theaters than the others?

 

I'm guessing there will be stragglers that don't update showtimes until today (at least on the source I use).  

[katnisscinnaplex]

7 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

I'm guessing there will be stragglers that don't update showtimes until today (at least on the source I use).  

Although... Deadline has previews marked for 3,475 locations.  Assuming that includes Canada my numbers may not change much by tomorrow morning.  I couldn't find a location count for BW or SC previews for comparison unfortunately.