The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

When did PS start. Its off like a SH movie !!!!

 

Dune Previews

MTC1 - 8985/178523 173537.61 860 shows

 

Again AT&T is retarded to release this on HBO for free. A pure theatrical release could have this explode to a huge OW.  Even otherwise this should be way bigger than GvK for sure.

[Valonqar]

perhaps more people see it in theaters than streaming? The world is already out it's a theatrical experience like no other.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

perhaps more people see it in theaters than streaming? The world is already out it's a theatrical experience like no other.

Dune has a fanbase for sure. They will buy on the first day. Let's give it a few days and see if it sustains momentum. 

Edited October 4, 2021 by Menor

[Porthos]

7 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

They were thinking about how hard In the Heights and The Suicide Squad flopped.

 

I know you're trying to make a funny, but that doesn't make sense even if they thought Dune was gonna bomb considering how "fantastic" The Many Saints of Newark just did without previews.

 

Like, if they really thought it would flop, one would think they would want to press previews in that case to wring every last cent out of things while they could.

 

No, jokes aside, it really was inexplicable and I would honestly like to know what the hell WB was thinking here before they came to their senses.

[Inceptionzq]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

When did PS start. Its off like a SH movie !!!!

Almost 2 hours ago

[Valonqar]

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

Dune has a fanbase for sure. They will buy on the first day. Let's give it a few days and see if it sustains momentum. 

 

Yes and this fan can't even buy advance tickets for his family cause no PS in Canada yet. 

[keysersoze123]

Dune's start is at BW level on PS start. It started faster than all other movies I tracked at MTC1 !!!! But BW sustained the pace and sold around 30K ticket in 1st 24 hours. Dont see Dune doing that with HBO release. 

[el sid]

Ok, I added its Wednesday early access sales.
NTTD counted today at 10am EST for Wednesday, October 6:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 86 (1 showtime)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 123 (1 showtime)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): no showtimes
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): no showtimes
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): no showtimes
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 280 (1 showtime)
LA (AMC Universal): 257 (1 showtime)

Total tickets sold in 4 theaters: 764.

NTTD counted today at 10am EST for Thursday, October 7:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 167 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 196 (7 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 35 (6 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 15 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 41 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 593 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 537 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.584.

 

Wednesday + Thursday = 2.330.
Comps: AQP II had 747 sold tickets also on Monday of its release week for Thursday.
Hobbs & Shaw (60.0MOW) had on the same day 1.194 sold tickets for Thursday.

And NTTD counted today at 10am EST for Friday, October 8:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 203 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 192 (10 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 49 (11 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 28 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 59 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 628 (10 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 510 (8 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.666.

Comps: F9 had on Monday of its release week 1.656 sold tickets for Friday so NTTD indeed slightly overtook it (by the way I made a mistake yesterday and compared Bond's Thursday sales to F9's Friday sales).
H&S had on the same day 1.234 sold tickets for Friday.

So so far NTTD is really doing good. My only concern is that its jumps in the last days were around 8 and 10% and from now on they must become way bigger.

 

[ThomasNicole]

Great to see Dune doing good.

 

Since this have a fanbase i think this isn't that surprising but still nice seeing then supporting the movie.

 

This is obviously not going to be frontloaded like a typical MCU sequel movie, but maybe something like Venom 2 / Shang Chi multi is possible, it have a rush fanbase but not that much.

 

Hoping for 6M previews and 42-45M OW, that would be a very nice debut especially considering HBO Max and pandemic. With around 250M OS and 100M DOM is impossible to say this movie is a disappointment, i hope WB announce the sequel right before the release to make people more excited.

[el sid]

When I heard that the tickets for Dune are available I decided to count it. I thought this is done in 2 minutes.
But...in my theaters it's the same as reported already by several members.
Dune counted today ca. 30 minutes ago for Thursday, October 21:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 15 (1 showtime)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 76 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): so far no showtimes
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): no showtimes
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 8 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 71 (2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 498 (!) (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 5 theaters after 2 hours on sale: 668.
The IMAX shows are of course those with the most sales but also e.g. the Dolby shows in the AMC in Miami look already pretty good.
I know/guess this run won't continue but it started great.

 

Edited October 4, 2021 by el sid

[Porthos]

*gets done setting up sheets*

 

A couple of observations:

 

1] Good golly, is this PLF heavy.  Right now, around 85% of all tickets sold locally are some sort of PLF.

 

2] Not that many showtimes so far.  Showtimes are more like an adult skewing film than a SH one.  In fact, a few theaters where I would expect shows haven't put up any yet.

 

3] While it's selling briskly enough, it's not like it's Out Of This World fantastic.  159/8036 tickets sold so far, with 138 of them being some sort of PLF.

 

===

 

Now it is really early in Sacto (finished setting then up before 10:30 in the morning), but this isn't anywhere near BW level at the moment.  Locally at least.

 

FWIW, looks to be kicking the pants off of AQP II, but maybe closer to F9's initial day.  I say closer as I set up my F9 sheets much later in the day so it's not nearly an exact comparison.

 

Also, frankly, I'm worried about that PLF skew.  I know this is gonna be a type of film where fans are gonna want to see it in the largest screen possible, but for it to be a ghost town in non-PLF formats, even at the better theaters in town.  Well, as I said, early days.  But it's something I'll keep an eye on just in case this really is a fan rush and then it drops off a cliff.

 

EDIT::: 

 

Aksually, it's almost exactly the same as NTTD's initial setup (Dune: 159 vs NTTD: 152), though I was very likely missing three early screenings on that count, so in all probability, it's a little behind NTTD's inital setup, if not by much.

 

 

Edited October 4, 2021 by Porthos

[ViewerAnon]

I'm not a tracker but I looked at a couple of LA theaters Friday night and DUNE has sold a bunch of seats. 

[Derpity]

CNBC: ‘No Time to Die’ eyes $100 million domestic box office opening 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/04/no-time-to-die-eyes-100-million-domestic-box-office-opening.html

[TwoMisfits]

Comparison of initial sets at my Cinemarks:

 

1st local

Venom 2 4 screens - 20 showings (final ended at 28 showings or 5.5 screens)

NTTD 3 screens - 12 showings

Halloween 2 screens - 9 showings

Dune 2 screens - 8 showings

 

2nd local

Venom 2 4 screens - 20 showings (final also ended at 28 showings or 5.5 screens)

NTTD 3 screens - 11 showings (due to timing of 1st showings) - interesting Saturday only gets 9 showings for presales, so they may make swaps on screen sizes, still...

Halloween 1 screen - 5 showings

Dune 2 screens - 8 showings

 

As we get more competition, it's gonna get tighter for getting full clear outs, and theaters become more cautious at the presale stage til the movies prove they need the space...

 

Edit to Add:  The Last Duel gets 1 screen and THREE total showings for planned presales at 1st local and 1 screen and 4 total showings for planned presales at the 2nd local...so they aren't thinking breakout right now...

Edited October 4, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[keysersoze123]

I am thinking 80m OW but I will take a triple digit OW for sure :-)

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, Derpity said:

CNBC: ‘No Time to Die’ eyes $100 million domestic box office opening 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/04/no-time-to-die-eyes-100-million-domestic-box-office-opening.html

 

So Universal wrote an article hyping its own movie as a can't miss - yup, I expected them to be down on its box office prospects:)...

[babz06]

Dune making more than GvK should be the goal. I’m hoping for around 35-40m ow. 

[keysersoze123]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

 

So Universal wrote an article hyping its own movie as a can't miss - yup, I expected them to be down on its box office prospects:)...

if you had at least bothered to read the article you would have realized this is not from studio(I am sure we will get a lower number). This is industry tracking at this stage. Our good ol' @Shawn was quoted in the article. I hope BOP also updates its numbers on Bond :-)

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

if you had at least bothered to read the article you would have realized this is not from studio(I am sure we will get a lower number). This is industry tracking at this stage. Our good ol' @Shawn was quoted in the article. I hope BOP also updates its numbers on Bond 🙂

 

I did read it...and then the big note at the bottom:)...and nowhere does Shawn say $100M...his quotes are as follows...

″‘No Time to Die’ is perfectly positioned to build on that momentum,” said Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at Boxoffice.com.

While the Bond franchise has generally skewed toward an older audience, box office analysts expect to see a range of generations headed to cinemas this weekend to see Daniel Craig’s long-delayed fifth and final turn as 007.

“The box office ceiling for Bond’s latest adventure could be higher than it may have ever been before the pandemic,” Robbins said."

 

The author of the article put in his own number, not Shawn...that's wishcasting from the studio hoping to build hype...

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

When did PS start. Its off like a SH movie !!!!

 

Dune Previews

MTC1 - 8985/178523 173537.61 860 shows

 

Again AT&T is retarded to release this on HBO for free. A pure theatrical release could have this explode to a huge OW.  Even otherwise this should be way bigger than GvK for sure.

Upto 12435/205025 238233.21 971 shows. I dont think this will come close to BW day 1 but looks like beating Shang Chi OD PS at MTC1 for sure. 

 

7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I did read it...and then the big note at the bottom:)...and nowhere does Shawn say $100M...his quotes are as follows...

″‘No Time to Die’ is perfectly positioned to build on that momentum,” said Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at Boxoffice.com.

While the Bond franchise has generally skewed toward an older audience, box office analysts expect to see a range of generations headed to cinemas this weekend to see Daniel Craig’s long-delayed fifth and final turn as 007.

“The box office ceiling for Bond’s latest adventure could be higher than it may have ever been before the pandemic,” Robbins said."

 

The author of the article put in his own number, not Shawn...that's wishcasting from the studio hoping to build hype...

 

While CNBC have done hit pieces or pushed agenda based on what they want, I dont see this as Universal pushing it. If it was studio tracking they would have called it out.  @Shawn can confirm hopefully :-)