The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

On 10/2/2021 at 12:58 PM, keysersoze123 said:

No Time to Die Previews (T-5)

MTC1 - 41707/443313 760026.15 2101 shows

 

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

No Time to Die  Friday(T-6)

MTC1 - 35519/624458 613160.89 3020 shows

No Time to Die

Previews (T-4)

MTC1 - 48901/444590 884431.43 2110 shows

Friday (T-5)

MTC1 - 42833/626071 732110.89 3030 shows

 

My update for previews was around 1PM PST and OD around 24 hours ago. But Its starting to accelerate and we should see it take off soon. Show count is still quite small and that will change from tuesday. 

[WrathOfHan]

lmao, figures I'm high on NTTD when everyone was high on Venom last week.

[filmlover]

Would have considered numbers in the same area as Spectre more than acceptable for No Time to Die given how old the audience for the franchise tends to be (and an audience that has been the most resistant about returning to theaters en masse throughout the pandemic era) but Venom's massive opening will make the first weekend more interesting to watch than otherwise might be the case. Personally hoping it makes as much as possible to give everything that isn't a young-skewing tentpole a message of hope about the possibility of making money in theaters.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Pray the Last Duel does well if you want hope for non young-skewing tentpoles

 

I still think Bond will prevail over Spectre which alone is a feat and goodwill/headlines. The reviews are solid and there is actual selling point here being Craig's final one. Every major theatrical release has overperformed expectations. I'm going around 75m

 

The preview numbers will look inflated because Wednesday but that's fine

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

No Time to Die

Previews (T-4)

MTC1 - 48901/444590 884431.43 2110 shows

Friday (T-5)

MTC1 - 42833/626071 732110.89 3030 shows

 

My update for previews was around 1PM PST and OD around 24 hours ago. But Its starting to accelerate and we should see it take off soon. Show count is still quite small and that will change from tuesday. 

Really strong numbers. IDK why are you ignorning WED sales @keysersoze123. Those will be deflating the THU numbers so need be accounted as if they are THU.

 

from just these MTC 1 numbers, I guess 8M+ THU is very likely. That should be enough for close to 85-90M.

[Porthos]

On 10/3/2021 at 12:41 AM, Porthos said:

 

No Time To Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	145	20907	22453	1546	6.89%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

119

 

T-5 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II	132.18		163	1156		6/83	2342/3498	33.05%		6.64m
F9	92.47		113	1606		0/89	11878/13484	11.91%		6.87m
NTTD (AQP adj)	---		118	1528		0/145	20775/22303	6.85%		---
NTTD (F9 adj)	---		119	1485		0/124	17918/19403	7.65%		---

COMP NOTE: Both the AQP II comp and the F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX showings which were not tracked at that time while NTTD (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps.

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

 

Matinee: 69/1772 [3.89% sold] | 4.46% of all tickets sold

Regal:   339/7496 [4.52% sold] [+33 tickets]

 

No Time To Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	145	20757	22460*	1703	7.58%

*NOTE:  A few theaters adjusted their seat maps resulting in a net addition of seven more seats region wide.

 

Total Seats Sold Today

157

 

T-4 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II	132.26		115	1271		7/85	2254/3525	36.06%		6.65m
F9	90.48		200	1806		0/89	11678/13484	13.39%		6.73m
NTTD (AQP adj)	---		153	1681		0/145	20629/22310	7.53%		---
NTTD (F9 adj)	---		149	1634		0/124	17777/19411	8.42%		---

COMP NOTE: Both the AQP II comp and the F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX showings which were not tracked at that time while NTTD (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps.

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

 

Matinee: 86/1772 [4.85% sold] | 4.85% of all tickets sold

Regal:   362/7504 [4.82% sold] [+23 tickets]

Edited October 4, 2021 by Porthos

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Dune actually has Thursday previews listed at 6pm at my AMC. The 21st

[Porthos]

20 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Dune actually has Thursday previews listed at 6pm at my AMC. The 21st

 

Yes, WB apparently changed their mind a couple of days ago.

 

Can only speculate as to why, but I personally suspect WB decided it was mostly just a really bad look and/or they wanted to mollify theaters somewhat.  Who knows. 

 

Frankly I'm not that surprised that they flip-flopped on this but more surprised that they initially didn't have previews in the first place.  Don't even know what they were thinking given they've already had Thr previews with In the Heights and The Suicide Squad.   

[lorddemaxus]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Don't even know what they were thinking given they've already had Thr previews with In the Heights and The Suicide Squad.   

They were thinking about how hard In the Heights and The Suicide Squad flopped.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

T-5 Adjusted Comp

6.7 means basically 7.5+ as Canada will be overindexing at may be 15%+.

 

Quite lower than what MTC tracking have, may be opposite Venom where South West underperform.

[TwoMisfits]

7 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

lmao, figures I'm high on NTTD when everyone was high on Venom last week.

 

Aren't you tracking in an area of ummm, less diverse older people?  If it wasn't doing well be you, it would be a catastrophe...

[keysersoze123]

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Really strong numbers. IDK why are you ignorning WED sales @keysersoze123. Those will be deflating the THU numbers so need be accounted as if they are THU.

 

from just these MTC 1 numbers, I guess 8M+ THU is very likely. That should be enough for close to 85-90M.

Should have mentioned it but this includes about 180 early shows on wednesday as well. I did it the 1st time you posted about it as studio will anyway roll the numbers onto previews. 

[titanic2187]

8 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

lmao, figures I'm high on NTTD when everyone was high on Venom last week.

I initially thought Venom would open to 70-75m and therefore NTTD stand a chance beating it but now with 90m+ as the new target, NTTD needs a Skyfall-level hype to replicate that success in US.

 

Despite skewing older, Bond is not a unfamiliar brand to younger crowd. Given the still lack of competition marketplace, they should try hard to sell this to younger demo who are hunger for more event film, there are opportunity with that demo. 

[Felipe]

 

[WrathOfHan]

Taking a look at Dune sales at a few theaters...

 

 

Opening night is going to be MASSIVE

Edited October 4, 2021 by WrathOfHan

[Valonqar]

WTF? No Dune advance tickets on Cineplex.com. There's NTTD but nothing for Dune. Is Dune just AMC excusive? 

[Inceptionzq]

38 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

WTF? No Dune advance tickets on Cineplex.com. There's NTTD but nothing for Dune. Is Dune just AMC excusive? 

It’s not an AMC exclusive. They don’t have advance tickets for Halloween Kills yet either. Might just be a thing where they only update showtimes on certain days. @DAJK @Tinalera probably know how the chain likes to do things

[Old Spice]

39 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Taking a look at Dune sales at a few theaters...

 

 

Opening night is going to be MASSIVE

 

At the theater I frequent I can usually swoop in a few minutes after tix go on sale for the opening night of a blockbuster and have my pick of seats. Not this morning. A full 15-20% of the seats had already been sold for the 7:00 PM show. 

[Valonqar]

1 minute ago, Inceptionzq said:

It’s not an AMC exclusive. They don’t have advance tickets for Halloween Kills yet either. Might just be a thing where they only update showtimes on certain days. @DAJK @Tinalera probably know how the chain likes to do things

 

Phew. I hope they open advance sales soon. Thanks! 

[Inceptionzq]

Just did a quick look around, and unsurprisingly, PLF are dominating. Especially IMAX. One of the Megaplex IMAX showings already has 107 tickets sold. Even one of my Denver chains that does barely anything in early presales is doing well for their IMAX showing. 16 sold, which is nothing to write home, but NTTD has 11 sold overall as of yesterday.

 

Of course, we’re not even 2 hours in. So let’s see how presales fare after the fan rush.