The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[poweranimals]

30 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I haven't gone through the thread but what are the odds of Bond beating out Venom 2?\

Hopefully none since that would ruin my club. 🤪

Edited October 3, 2021 by poweranimals

[WrathOfHan]

No Time to Die:

Weds Early Access IMAX: 27/372

4:00 IMAX: 4/372

5:00 Dolby: 20/236

7:00: 5/107

8:00 IMAX: 17/372

9:00 Dolby: 30/236

Total: 103/1,695 (76/1,323 without Early Access)

 

Comps:

 

30% of Black Widow the day before (4M)

64% of Shang-Chi six days out (5.6M)

79% of F9 three days out (5.5M)

110% of Venom 2 four days out (12.4M)

141% of AQP2 two days out (6.8M)

181% of The Suicide Squad five days out (7.4M)

572% of Old five days out (8.6M)

858% of Snake Eyes five days out (12M)

 

Sales are still holding strong. Now that we're closer to release, my current guess is 6.5-9M.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Oh i forgot the Wednesday early access showing. There is none of that at the cinemark here

 

Anyway, the Wed numbers is 105

[keysersoze123]

Venom 2 Saturday Finish

MTC1 - 502820/1208161 7058245.78 6694 shows

 

WOW WOW. I thought I was being overly optimistic when I mentioned 500K or $7 million this morning but Venom 2 crossed both thresholds. If you extrapolate from yesterday it means 31.75m saturday for Venom 2!!!! Unfortunately I dont have MTC2 number. But it wont be outlandish considering RTH just mentioned 31m. 

 

Edit: MTC share should go down today. So can it hit 32m+ :-) Of course it requires all big MTC to grow at similar level. Wont be easy at MTC2 considering how big it was yesterday. So I feel its number should go up from RTH estimate an hour or so back. @charlie Jatinder will confirm sometime in the middle of the night. 

 

 

Edited October 3, 2021 by keysersoze123

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric Soprano said:

No Time to Die Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	75	1139	14653	7.77%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 83

 

Comp

0.998x of F9 T-6 (7.09M)

0.397x of Black Widow T-6 (5.24M)

2.471x of The Suicide Squad T-6 (10.13M)

0.681x of Shang-Chi T-6 (5.99M)

1.020x of Venom 2 T-6 (11.83M)

No Time to Die Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	75	1216	14653	8.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 77

 

Comp

0.940x of F9 T-5 (6.67M)

0.397x of Black Widow T-5 (5.24M)

2.380x of The Suicide Squad T-5 (9.76M)

0.680x of Shang-Chi T-5 (5.99M)

0.957x of Venom 2 T-5 (11.11M)

 

I wasn't too nervous about yesterday, because I thought it was just a fluke. But two bad days in a row...I can only hope the last few days really ramp up in the end. Otherwise, Mickey's Law really is a cruel, cruel beast.

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric Soprano said:

Halloween Kills Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	22	283	4052	6.98%

 

Comp

0.704x of A Quiet Place 2 Thu+Fri T-13 (13.63M)

3.369x of The Conjuring 3 T-13 (33.03M)

0.360x of F9 T-13 (2.56M)

1.029x of The Suicide Squad T-13 (4.22M)

0.419x of Venom 2 T-13 (4.86M)

 

So yeah the horror comps are pretty wonky, because those include full-on Fridays. And while I tried to add in some adult-centric tentpoles, those aren't very good either. It'll probably be a real hazy cloud until we add in more horror comps the weekend of. But honestly, this seems really, really good. While a decline should still happen, so far things don't indicate any major drop, which is above my expectations. Even before the pandemic I was feeling 35M or something for its opening. Really thought the new one had no hook since the last one was all focused on nostalgia, but I'm glad to be proven wrong here.

Halloween Kills Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	22	324	4052	8.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 41

 

Comp

0.715x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-12 (13.85M)

3.176x of The Conjuring 3 T-12 (31.14M)

0.383x of F9 T-12 (2.72M)

1.087x of The Suicide Squad T-12 (4.46M)

0.458x of Venom 2 T-12 (5.31M)

[keysersoze123]

Venom D3 PS End

MTC1 - 98319/1057611 1331472.15 5693 shows

 

I think this is more about walkups. Night time shows will drop but day time will hold. i feel its drop will be better than norm during early October. Joker dropped 24.9% but that was a juggernaut. Tomorrow's BO will tell us if its anywhere close. 

Edited October 3, 2021 by keysersoze123

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Halloween Kills (Thursday)

 

Cinemark: (32)

730 (23), 1015 (9)

 

AMC

7 (43)

 

Extremely solid so far. But no PLF for this? Halloween 18 was XD and IMAX. That might prevent it from the 70+ but I still think 50+ is good

[keysersoze123]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

No Time to Die Previews (T-5)

MTC1 - 41707/443313 760026.15 2101 shows

 

I am expecting 4x this number for finish. Should be sufficient for 8m previews(Probably even 3.75x would be sufficient). 

Quick Update

No Time to Die 

Friday(T-6)

MTC1 - 35519/624458 613160.89 3020 shows

Saturday(T-7)

MTC2 - 28089/673745 460173.53 3247 shows. 

 

This would be backloaded for sure. 

[WrathOfHan]

1 hour ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Halloween Kills (Thursday)

 

Cinemark: (32)

730 (23), 1015 (9)

 

AMC

7 (43)

 

Extremely solid so far. But no PLF for this? Halloween 18 was XD and IMAX. That might prevent it from the 70+ but I still think 50+ is good

Right now I'm seeing an extremely limited number of PLF shows. Only one PLF currently has showtimes in Orlando, but the theater I track currently has Dolby shows up. Most theaters are going to wait for NTTD's OW to decide final shows, but my best guess is Bond pre-5PM and Halloween at night. IMAX should stay NTTD this weekend.

Edited October 3, 2021 by WrathOfHan

[Porthos]

On 10/2/2021 at 12:00 AM, Porthos said:

 

No Time To Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	145	21026	22453	1427	6.36%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	100
Total Seats Sold Today	125

 

T-6 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II	141.99		71	993		5/82	2454/3447	28.81%		7.14m
F9	91.49		79	1493		0/87	11891/13384	11.16%		6.80m
NTTD (AQP adj)	---		119	1410		0/145	20893/22303	6.32%		---
NTTD (F9 adj)	---		123	1366		0/124	18037/19403	7.04%		---

COMP NOTE: Both the AQP II comp and the F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX showings which were not tracked at that time while NTTD (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps.

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

 

Matinee: 65/1772 [3.67% sold] | 4.56% of all tickets sold

Regal:   306/7496 [4.08% sold] [+19 tickets]

 

No Time To Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	145	20907	22453	1546	6.89%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

119

 

T-5 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II	132.18		163	1156		6/83	2342/3498	33.05%		6.64m
F9	92.47		113	1606		0/89	11878/13484	11.91%		6.87m
NTTD (AQP adj)	---		118	1528		0/145	20775/22303	6.85%		---
NTTD (F9 adj)	---		119	1485		0/124	17918/19403	7.65%		---

COMP NOTE: Both the AQP II comp and the F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX showings which were not tracked at that time while NTTD (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps.

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

 

Matinee: 69/1772 [3.89% sold] | 4.46% of all tickets sold

Regal:   339/7496 [4.52% sold] [+33 tickets]

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 9/30/2021 at 9:20 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-6	No Time to Die (Wed)	Jacksonville	3	3	1,046	93	15	8.89%
		Phoenix	1	1	410	15	1	3.66%
		Raleigh	1	1	151	87	6	57.62%
	No Time to Die (Wed) Total		5	5	1,607	195	22	12.13%
T-7	No Time to Die	Jacksonville	7	60	10,170	207	23	2.04%
		Phoenix	7	37	5,593	203	42	3.63%
		Raleigh	7	32	3,812	276	32	7.24%
	No Time to Die Total		21	129	19,575	686	97	3.50%

 

No Time to Die T-7 comps

F9 - .71x (5.05m)

TSS - 1.73x (7.1m)

 

Average - 6.075m

Average incl Wed - 7.8m

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales*	% Sold
T-3	No Time to Die (Wed)	Jacksonville	3	3	1,046	119	26	11.38%
		Phoenix	1	1	410	34	19	8.29%
		Raleigh	1	1	151	102	15	67.55%
	No Time to Die (Wed) Total		5	5	1,607	255	60	15.87%
T-4	No Time to Die	Jacksonville	7	60	10,170	284	77	2.79%
		Phoenix	7	37	5,593	315	112	5.63%
		Raleigh	7	34	3,951	394	118	9.97%
	No Time to Die Total		21	131	19,714	993	307	5.04%

*New sales since Thursday morning

 

Not gonna pick up Halloween yet since I probably won't have time to track much this week. 

 

No Time to Die T-4 comps

F9 - .8x (5.68m)

TSS - 1.94x (7.94m)

 

Average - 6.81m

Average incl Wed - 8.56m

[charlie Jatinder]

11 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Venom D3 PS End

MTC1 - 98319/1057611 1331472.15 5693 shows

 

I think this is more about walkups. Night time shows will drop but day time will hold. i feel its drop will be better than norm during early October. Joker dropped 24.9% but that was a juggernaut. Tomorrow's BO will tell us if its anywhere close. 

Should be around 22.

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Should be around 22.

91 then ? 

[el sid]

NTTD counted today at 9am EST for Thursday, October 7:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 161 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 167 (7 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 32 (6 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 13 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 41 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 543 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 507 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.464.

So it needs now ca. 200 sold tickets till tomorrow in my theaters to be on par with F9 which had 1.656. Quite good so far but I'm still not fully convinced.

Halloween Kills counted today at 9am EST for Thursday, October 14
had 263 sold tickets in 6 theaters.
Comps: AQP II (47.5M OW) had 402 sold tickets 9 days before its previews.
And Scary Stories (20.9M OW) had on Monday of its release week 367 sold tickets in 5 theaters.
Halloween Kills counted also at 9am EST for Friday, October 15
had 235 sold tickets in 7 theaters.
Comps: The Conjuring 3 had 241 sold tickets 12 days before its release Friday.
And Scary Stories had 239 sold tickets on Monday of its release week in 5 theaters.

Overall an ok start in my theaters. Will count it again in two days to have a better comparison with AQP II.

[Inceptionzq]

21 minutes ago, el sid said:

So it needs now ca. 200 sold tickets till tomorrow in my theaters to be on par with F9 which had 1.656. Quite good so far but I'm still not fully convinced.

Are you going to count the Wednesday showings?

[Menor the Destroyer]

15 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Quick Update

No Time to Die 

Friday(T-6)

MTC1 - 35519/624458 613160.89 3020 shows

Saturday(T-7)

MTC2 - 28089/673745 460173.53 3247 shows. 

 

This would be backloaded for sure. 

Friday sales are lower than F9 had at MTC1 (it was about 42k at this time) despite Thurs being higher. Didn't expect that. Though it is higher in gross with ATP much higher. 

Edited October 3, 2021 by Menor

[keysersoze123]

30 minutes ago, Menor said:

Friday sales are lower than F9 had at MTC1 (it was about 42k at this time) despite Thurs being higher. Didn't expect that. Though it is higher in gross with ATP much higher. 

This will be way more backloaded than F9. I dont think any of the movies would make good comp as the audience base is adult. Let us wait and watch. Craig finale is a big draw. Reviews are very good as well. 

[ThomasNicole]

 

 

 

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/2/2021 at 4:15 PM, Inceptionzq said:

No Time to Die Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

153

1690

9.05%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

220

1610

13.66%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
877	91	18005	4.87%	15	105

 

AMCs sold	632
Cinemarks sold	81
Regals sold	155
Harkins	9

 

Wednesday: 

Total

212

1429

 

Fast 9 comp: 7.35M

No Time to Die Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

165

1690

9.76%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

231

1610

14.35%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
969	92	18005	5.38%	15	105

 

AMCs sold	669
Cinemarks sold	92
Regals sold	192
Harkins	16

 

Wednesday:

Total

239

1429

 

Suicide Squad comp: 7.44M

Fast 9 comp: 7.42M