The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Mojoguy]

SW is its own thing when it comes to presales, SW presales are simply massive, so anything not SW being compared to it seems doomed to be inaccurate.

 

Eternals and Shang is more meaningful since both are CBM and MCU. Even Eternals and Venom 2.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Even Eternals and Venom 2

I suggested on discarding V2 for any future comps because the run was impacted by release date ambiguity IMO, I guess others will follow it.

[Mojoguy]

With how big V2 dropped second weekend, it does look like V2 was quite PS heavy. Not a great comparison since it is a sequel unlike SC and ENT.

Edited October 12, 2021 by Mojoguy

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Mojoguy said:

Solo was tracking to be bigger than Black Panther too.

 

Since people seem insistent on pouring that lemon juice (), I might as well set the record straight here for folks who weren't around at the time.

 

What Fandango claimed is that within the first 24 hours Solo outsold the first 24 hours of Black Panther on its platform.

 

This ignores that Black Panther was the Marvel film that pretty much broke the mold when it came to non-Avenger Marvel films doing gangbusters sales.  Its $200m+ was (almost) completely unexpected and it was a case of it just selling and selling and selling tickets as pre-sales went on.

 

You can't look at something as pre-sale heavy as SW and say "Well, it outsold BP so of course it'll get close to that."  Now, as Marvel's fanbase has matured, it has become more and more pre-sale heavy (if not quite as pre-sale heavy as SW films).  But back then when BP debuted not only was it not as pre-sale heavy, but online ticket sales weren't as prevelant.  Even quarter-to-quarter saw rapid growth in online ticket sales for Fandango (and other chains).

 

So did Solo outsell Black Panther on its first day over on Fandango?  Beats me, but probably.  But outside of puff PR pieces that didn't really mean a thing.  And I don't recall it ever being tracked to "outsell Black Panther".  The absolute highest I recall was some thoughts at $150m-$175m.  It didn't come anywhere close to that, of course.  But it never ever ever was "tracking to be bigger than Black Panther".

 

(history lesson/rant over)

[Menor the Destroyer]

Eternals Friday MTC2 is at 8064 seats sold on 3657 shows. Shang-Chi after 25 hours was 5463 seats sold. Really good start here as well, even better considering Shang-Chi had 600 more shows, so would have had more blocked seats inflating its total. 

 

BW after over a day (I think like 29 hours) was 10340. Eternals should approach that. Probably a bit short but with BW having 1000 more shows, it could be about even after accounting for blocked seats. Considering ATP the gross will probably be higher. 

Edited October 12, 2021 by Menor

[Legion Again]

Beating BW gross in MTC2 would be spectacular considering the MTC1 diff.

[Eric Duncan]

On 10/10/2021 at 11:28 PM, Eric Safin said:

Halloween Kills Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	25	858	4429	19.37%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 91

 

Comp

0.671x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-4 (13M)

1.219x of The Conjuring 3 T-4 (11.95M)

0.612x of F9 T-4 (4.35M)

1.416x of The Suicide Squad T-4 (5.8M)

0.601x of Venom 2 T-4 (6.97M)

 

Okay, so just to clarify some things: yesterday, I screwed up and counted one theater's Friday showings compared to the Thursday showings. They both had two showings each, but it was still a screw up nonetheless, and I should have picked up on the film generating an obscene 177 tickets on a Saturday.

 

In the end, this is still not a bad number, especially considering how off all my comps are. It'll be interesting to see how it compares to the new horror titles joining the fray.

Halloween Kills Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	31	1067	5343	19.97%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 6

Total Seats Added Today: 914

Total Seats Sold Today: 209

 

Comp

0.630x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-3 (12.2M)

1.516x of The Conjuring 3 3 Days Before Release (14.86M)

0.659x of F9 T-3 (4.68M)

7.904x of Old T-3 (11.86M)

1.440x of The Suicide Squad T-3 (5.9M)

4.521x of Candyman T-3 (8.59M)

0.607x of Venom 2 T-3 (7.04M)

 

Well, even with more horror comps, the range is still all over the place. But still, even though it won't reach any of the high-end numbers...this is still really good.

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune MTC1

Previews(T-11) - 31292/230646 581028.78 1106 shows

OD(T-12) -  29757/516250 545303.33 2507 shows

Dune MTC1

Previews(T-10) - 33648/233677 622708.02 1131 shows (+2356)

OD(T-11) - 32402/518316 592499.30 2528 shows (+2645)

 

Another solid day. Its started to accelerate as well. Should be ahead of NTTD which fell off the cliff in the final few days. 

[Eric Duncan]

The Last Duel Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	14	30	1865	1.61%

 

Comp

0.059x of Cruella Thu+Fri T-3 (458K)

0.200x of Snake Eyes T-3 (280K)

1.034x of Respect T-3 (672K)

3.750x of Cry Macho 3 Days Before Release (6M)

0.080x of Many Saints of Newark 3 Days Before Release (167K)

 

So I skipped a lot of adult-skewing films that came out this year because I didn't have the time and freedom that I used to, so this is another film where I don't have many good comps. At the same time...yeah, this is not pretty.

[ThomasNicole]

It just me or Dune isn't really behaving like a frontloaded movie?

 

When the first day blow up it was clearly because there is a strong niche hyped for this, but since then it keeps getting good numbers, so it must be making GP intrigued too.

[Rorschach]

I usually only report ticket sale numbers on Wednesday nights, but I generally like to check up on ticket sales during the early parts of the week to see how films are doing. And goddamn, Halloween Kills is a complete monster at my Davenport Cinemark theater. As of today, its current total number of tickets sold across Thursday and Friday (365) is already close to eclipsing No Time to Die's Wednesday night total (378). 

Edited October 12, 2021 by Rorschach

[Eric Duncan]

On 10/10/2021 at 11:38 PM, Eric Safin said:

Dune Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	752	6716	11.20%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 36

 

Comp

0.869x of F9 T-11 (6.17M)

0.358x of Black Widow T-11 (4.72M)

2.515x of The Suicide Squad T-11 (10.31M)

0.711x of Shang-Chi T-11 (6.26M)

0.969x of Venom 2 T-11 (11.24M)

Dune Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	790	6716	11.76%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 38

 

Comp

0.887x of F9 T-10 (6.29M)

0.357x of Black Widow T-10 (4.71M)

2.524x of The Suicide Squad T-10 (10.35M)

0.668x of Shang-Chi T-10 (5.88M)

0.930x of Venom 2 T-10 (10.79M)

1.052x of No Time to Die T-10 (6.63M)

[Menor the Destroyer]

12 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

It just me or Dune isn't really behaving like a frontloaded movie?

 

When the first day blow up it was clearly because there is a strong niche hyped for this, but since then it keeps getting good numbers, so it must be making GP intrigued too.

Too early to say. Bond looked ok up until the final weekend before release, then the bad signs started to show. 

[Porthos]

13 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

It just me or Dune isn't really behaving like a frontloaded movie?

 

When the first day blow up it was clearly because there is a strong niche hyped for this, but since then it keeps getting good numbers, so it must be making GP intrigued too.

 

The "problem" for Dune is that it won't have any sort of review/premiere/social media embargo boost.  OTOH, Venom Let There Be Carnage didn't have those either and rode buzz from its fan screenings all the way to a double digit preview night.

 

Maybe the buzz from European showings for Dune can be somewhat analogous if on a much smaller scale.

[Eric Duncan]

Eternals Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-24 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	49	848	10020	8.46%

 

Comp

1.040x of Black Widow's 1st Day of Presales (13.73M)

0.719x of Black Widow T-24 (9.49M)

1.663x of Shang-Chi's 1st Day of Presales (14.63M)

 

Wow, Papa Feige has another hit on his hands? What a complete and total shock.

[charlie Jatinder]

Not looking too deep, but pace look good for $4.5-6M depending on coming days, but if you look at being 10% over Venom 2 at same time in MTC1 than yeah it will be very frontloaded.

[charlie Jatinder]

So we have first regional comp over BW. @Eric Safin I believe you aren't doing any ATP or Canada adjustment for BW.

[Lion Roar]

Eternals T-24 Presales at local AMC:

 

Starting with 4 shows only due to long runtime: 2 IMAX and 2 Standard. Presales are wayyyy ahead of V2 and Bond. The 7PM IMAX is already 50% sold. 

 

Eternals has sold 267 out of 1024 seats: 182 IMAX, 85 Standard

 

Comp: 3.98x V2 first day, 2.1x NTTD first day. 

 

V2 severely underperformed here and NTTD overperformed, so no idea where it will end up, but this is definitely a fantastic first day. 

[Eric Duncan]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

So we have first regional comp over BW. @Eric Safin I believe you aren't doing any ATP or Canada adjustment for BW.

I'm too stupid/lazy/tired to account for that stuff, so no. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[keysersoze123]

Eternals MTC1

Previews(T-24) - 35230/354306 637939.98 1782 shows

Friday(T-25) - 18648/707046 340687.48 3473 shows

 

Excellent 1st day for sure.