The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Sacramento, don't you do some funny business.

Sacramento's ratio vs BW is in line with MTC2 which makes sense considering Arden is a big seller there. 

[TwoMisfits]

5 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Maybe this is another way consumer to release their pent-up demand, they may become more willing to purchase premium format than usual. 

 

It's actually the AMC subscribers, who are allowed to buy any premium seats for free with their subscriptions, just getting their tickets...this early in the prebuy process, those folks are getting their movie going schedules set up, and they usually are buying every big blockbuster (if they weren't interested in most of them, they'd just go with the cheaper, and less movie-going focused Cinemark pass).

 

Combine that with uber fans, the only other ones buying this early, and you see a crap ton of premium seats sold...

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

Very nice first day.  Decided that Venom: Let There Be Carnage and F9 were dumb comps for now.  I'll rope in V2 eventually and F9 (and maybe others) closer to the end.

 

Not much else to say that hasn't been said by others.

I would argue that Venom shouldn't be roped in at all until the end of tracking. It's trend was so different than MCU films. 

[Legion Again]

Gimme that day 1 venom comp, if we aren't beating Endgame's previews what is even the point here.

 

[john2000]

where eternals finished ? in MTCs ?

Edited October 12, 2021 by john2000

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 10/11/2021 at 10:38 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-10	Dune	Jacksonville	6	38	6,376	266	12	4.17%
		Phoenix	6	17	2,529	227	29	8.98%
		Raleigh	8	20	2,842	153	23	5.38%
	Dune Total		20	75	11,747	646	64	5.50%
T-3	Halloween Kills	Jacksonville	6	20	3,016	257	42	8.52%
		Phoenix	7	19	3,016	339	54	11.24%
		Raleigh	7	15	1,858	263	46	14.16%
	Halloween Kills Total		20	54	7,890	859	142	10.89%
	The Last Duel	Jacksonville	5	9	863	11	1	1.27%
		Phoenix	7	12	1,400	26	14	1.86%
		Raleigh	7	8	600	24	5	4.00%
	The Last Duel Total		19	29	2,863	61	20	2.13%

 

Halloween comps

TSS - 1.39x (5.71m)

Venom 2 - .538x (6.24m)

Candyman - 5.437x (16.3m)

 

The Last Duel comps

Green Knight - .7x (526k)

Old - .61x (915k)

 

Dune comps

Venom 2 - .96x (11.1m)

F9 - .8x (5.68m)

No Time to Die - 1.37x (7.12m)

 

Average - 7.98m

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-2	Halloween Kills	Jacksonville	6	21	3,097	367	110	11.85%
		Phoenix	7	19	3,016	436	97	14.46%
		Raleigh	7	17	2,028	310	47	15.29%
	Halloween Kills Total		20	57	8,141	1,113	254	13.67%
	The Last Duel	Jacksonville	5	9	863	18	7	2.09%
		Phoenix	7	12	1,400	37	11	2.64%
		Raleigh	7	8	600	28	4	4.67%
	The Last Duel Total		19	29	2,863	83	22	2.90%
T-23	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	47	7,996	296	296	3.70%
		Phoenix	6	35	5,949	230	230	3.87%
		Raleigh	7	26	3,078	237	237	7.70%
	Eternals Total		19	108	17,023	763	763	4.48%
T-9	Dune	Jacksonville	7	39	6,545	275	9	4.20%
		Phoenix	6	17	2,529	237	10	9.37%
		Raleigh	8	21	2,915	173	20	5.93%
	Dune Total		21	77	11,989	685	39	5.71%

 

Halloween comps

TSS - 1.52x (6.25m)

Venom 2 - .549x (6.37m)

Candyman - 5.456x (16.4m)

 

The Last Duel comps

Green Knight - .51x (384k)

Old - .63x (943k)

 

Dune comps

Venom 2 - .95x (11m)

F9 - .8x (5.63m)

No Time to Die - 1.3x (6.76m)

 

Average - 7.81m

 

Eternals comps

Black Widow (day 1) - 1.42x (18.76m)

Shang Chi (day 2) - 1.32x (11.58m)

 

Excellent start for Eternals!  Didn't get a chance to pull ticket prices but it sounds like they've increased in a lot of places.  

[Cmasterclay]

I wish we had more people looking at Halloween here. It's obviously dropping big from the first but katniss and Eric's numbers (and just my anecdotal local scan) indicate very solid numbers are still possible. But great job everyone with Dune and Eternals - fingers crossed they keep up!

[keysersoze123]

11 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The "problem" for Dune is that it won't have any sort of review/premiere/social media embargo boost.  OTOH, Venom Let There Be Carnage didn't have those either and rode buzz from its fan screenings all the way to a double digit preview night.

 

Maybe the buzz from European showings for Dune can be somewhat analogous if on a much smaller scale.

It does not have to hit Venom 2(I doubt any movie will do that). I am only comparing it to NTTD which fell off the cliff in final few days and if it can stay ahead of that in final week, it should end up with good preview number. I am thinking 6m at this point. 

[keysersoze123]

4 hours ago, Menor said:

Sacramento's ratio vs BW is in line with MTC2 which makes sense considering Arden is a big seller there. 

MCU movies will skew MTC1 until close to release. BW was an outlier may be due to her being an OG Avenger. 

[charlie Jatinder]

12 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I wish we had more people looking at Halloween here. It's obviously dropping big from the first but katniss and Eric's numbers (and just my anecdotal local scan) indicate very solid numbers are still possible. But great job everyone with Dune and Eternals - fingers crossed they keep up!

The regional numbers looks good to me, Now if someone is expecting opening closer to previous one, that's excessive. I think $40m+ shall happen based on those limited data points.

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

MCU movies will skew MTC1 until close to release. BW was an outlier may be due to her being an OG Avenger. 

BW had MTC 1 seating restrictions in first few days so business spillover to other cinemas.

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

BW had MTC 1 seating restrictions in first few days so business spillover to other cinemas.

It was not close to sellout to have any impact at that point. 

[ThomasNicole]

+40M for Halloween would be excellent considering the day and date release. I'm sure it would be +50M if it was theatrical exclusive.

 

Hoping 6M for Dune previews really happen, i think it will be a little frontloaded like an MCU movie but not that much, 7-8x previews should happen to around 40-50M OW, which is enough to be considered a huge success given the HBO Max release.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Eternals first 24 hrs

 

Thursday:

Seats Sold: 13202/313807

Gross: $189691

 

BW (after 28-29 hours) was 19137. Shang-Chi 25 hours was 8794. 

 

Friday:

Seats Sold: 8639

Gross: $112245

 

BW was 10340. Shang-Chi was 5463. I am impressed that the Friday ratios are even better than Thu despite the lower show count on Friday. 

 

Back to normal update schedule now. Will look at Halloween Kills tonight as well. Will give Dune another look after Halloween OW. 

Edited October 12, 2021 by Menor

[Old Spice]

Salt Lake City update, 10:00 AM Tuesday, Sugarhouse Cinemark theater (non-PLF).

 

Last Duel

Previews 9/124 7.2%

Friday 6/248 2.4%

 

Halloween Kills

Previews 54/124 43.5%

Friday 43/310 13.9%

 

Dune

Previews 80/212 37.7%

Friday 104/424 24.5%

 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

It was not close to sellout to have any impact at that point. 

good seats gone are enough for folks to move to other places. 

[charlie Jatinder]

 Nationwide estimate first 24 hours.

 

THU - $1.4M

FRI - $0.75M

Rest - $0.55M Approx

 

Total - $2.7M

 

Overall sales better than BW $2.1M and Shang Chi $1.6M. In number of tickets sold, BW will be closer however, with Eternals around ~150K (~160K+ inc Canada) vs 145K of BW.

 

Expecting $14-15M THU previews for Eternals, let's see how coming days go.

 

[XXR vs XXR]

OW Predictions

 

Halloween Kills = $39M

 

Dune = $47M

 

Eternals = $103M

[ThomasNicole]

With 14-15M THU, Eternals will only need around 7x previews to hit 100M OW.

 

Eternals is more hyped than Shang Chi so i think it's hard to match 8.5x SC did, but it's theatrical exclusive and a first movie so i doubt it will be anywhere close to BW 6x either.

 

If 14-15M previews happens, i expect 108-116M OW (7.75x)

[SpiderByte]

44 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

+40M for Halloween would be excellent considering the day and date release. I'm sure it would be +50M if it was theatrical exclusive.

 

Hoping 6M for Dune previews really happen, i think it will be a little frontloaded like an MCU movie but not that much, 7-8x previews should happen to around 40-50M OW, which is enough to be considered a huge success given the HBO Max release.

Day and date may be less impactful given how few people have Peacock Premium