The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[titanic2187]

4 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Well this is your problem. Every single WB movie did way less than it could, if you don't accept HBO is the cause then fine, doesn't change the facts.

 

At this point what's preventing this to came to +45M OW is exactly HBO Max, like it or not. You can't compare a whole movie available "for free" for millions of people to a clip scene of a JLo movie on YouTube, wtf.

Yes I can , and I just did. 

 

Never mind. Maybe staying home too long or virus shrinking people ball for thinking or asking big.

 

1 minute ago, Last Man Standing said:

35M would be like 50% more than TSS OW, how is that "not much higher"?

Did people don't understand "<" ?. 35m isn't a disappointment but anything less than that yes.  Plus, even 35m is only 35% more than TSS, not >50%. 

[Sano]

23 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

you have 250 pages to read. god speed.

Oh I've been following for a little while now. Didn't you predict around 25 million OW for Dune in the US a week or so ago, and a 25 million total for China? Seem to remember something about the HK prediction as well. And the comment you made about not getting previews right. I think my main point is that it's harder to predict things as it is reporting numbers a day out.

 

Edited October 20, 2021 by Sano

[famicommander]

5 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Plus, even 35m is only 35% more than TSS, not >50%. 

1.5 x 35M =52.5M

 

That's what he's getting at. 

Edited October 20, 2021 by famicommander

[ThomasNicole]

4 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Yes I can , and I just did. 

You're right, it's still a dumb comparisson, but you really can say it, my bad i guess.

[Elessar]

5 minutes ago, famicommander said:

The simple fact that WB is even considering the Wonder Woman 1984 and Mortal Kombat sequels and spinoffs they've been discussing should be proof enough that they're giving heavy consideration to HBO Max streaming. Wonder Woman did like 166M on a reported 200M budget and they're saying they've committed to a theatrical sequel and a streaming spin-off.

 

Well, tbh, WW is a different situation. The market conditions were much worse and the first one proved the potential of the IP.

[filmlover]

The fact Dune is looking to be so PLF-heavy reinforces the notion that the key to success during the pandemic era is the promise of being seen on the biggest screen possible. The holds over the next few weeks will be fascinating since it's looking to keep most PLF screens next weekend (Last Night in Soho is looking to take over the majority of AMC Dolby Cinemas) and will be losing all of them the following week when Eternals arrives.

[famicommander]

4 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

Well, tbh, WW is a different situation. The market conditions were much worse and the first one proved the potential of the IP.

It's certainly not an apples to apples comparison but WW's performance was still pretty dreadful for them to be all in on a sequel and a spin off.

 

Mortal Kombat was a 2021 release and it only did about ~1.6X its budget and that didn't scare them off.

Edited October 20, 2021 by famicommander

[titanic2187]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

You're right, it's still a dumb comparisson, but you really can say it, my bad i guess.

Lol, it is not , just too wise for people to comprehend. Basically it means if HBO max want viewership, they can just shoot some mid-low budget horny sensation to get the same result.  

 

 And , I am glad you did.

[Ronin46]

6 minutes ago, Sano said:

Oh I've been following for a little while now. Didn't you predict around 25 million OW for Dune in the US a week or so ago, and a 25 million total for China? Seem to remember something about the HK prediction as well. And the comment you made about not getting previews right. I think my main point is that it's harder to predict things as it is reporting numbers a day out.

 

 

Whats your point? Charlie has been far more accurate than the tracking websites (BO report BoPro). Its impossible to predict within a few million every single time because nobody knows what walkups will be. The preview number have been very accurate for the most part.

James Bond for example was selling like it would do 70M plus up to 3 days before opening. Now a person could say 'lets see how it goes" up until Thursday and then make a prediction or just simple state previews are showing... ticket sales for the weekend are showing and this indicates 70 to 75M opening.

If there is no speculation a week or 2 out and just these are the numbers and "lets wait and see" its going to be very boring around here.

 

So congratulations on taking a massive dump on the people providing the numbers who also have the courage to interpret the numbers early on and give indications as to where the numbers sit.

[TwoMisfits]

9 minutes ago, Sano said:

Oh I've been following for a little while now. Didn't you predict around 25 million OW for Dune in the US a week or so ago, and a 25 million total for China? Seem to remember something about the HK prediction as well. And the comment you made about not getting previews right. I think my main point is that it's harder to predict things as it is reporting numbers a day out.

 

 

A word to the wise - the trackers on this thread are some of the best, committed, and most experienced folks on this site.

 

Picking a fight with them in your 1st two posts is the way to become persona non grata on the boards.  

 

Instead, I, like Charlie, suggest you read this entire thread and many of the other movie threads (including past weekend threads) to get a feel for how folks arrive at their early movie box office predictions, how they use early presales to adjust those expectations, and how they use late presales to see if movies are still on proper tracks for their type or are falling off...

 

It's an art, not a science, and it usually takes quite a while of following it closely to do well at it...and even then, many folks on the board are better at certain genres and movie types than others b/c there's SO much to know and consider...

 

That said, pretty much everyone here is better than Deadline...and that's been today's joke...

[Sano]

31 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

Whats your point? Charlie has been far more accurate than the tracking websites (BO report BoPro). Its impossible to predict within a few million every single time because nobody knows what walkups will be. The preview number have been very accurate for the most part.

James Bond for example was selling like it would do 70M plus up to 3 days before opening. Now a person could say 'lets see how it goes" up until Thursday and then make a prediction or just simple state previews are showing... ticket sales for the weekend are showing and this indicates 70 to 75M opening.

If there is no speculation a week or 2 out and just these are the numbers and "lets wait and see" its going to be very boring around here.

 

So congratulations on taking a massive dump on the people providing the numbers who also have the courage to interpret the numbers early on and give indications as to where the numbers sit.

I think I was pretty clear about what my point was and it isn't just a few millions. He himself said that he was getting previews wrong. I knew I was going to get flack for my comment because it was pretty dickish, and that's completely fair. I understand that it's impossible to make entirely accurate predtions but at the same time when you put yourself out there, especially as a vocal participant with strong opinions, you should expect some push back. You can't expect roses and sunshine when miss the mark, especially with bravado, and no one is above (slight) criticism. The bias against Dune from @charlie Jatinder just stuck out. With that said, I appreciate the work everyone are doing in here and I have been learning a lot.

 

30 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

A word to the wise - the trackers on this thread are some of the best, committed, and most experienced folks on this site.

 

Picking a fight with them in your 1st two posts is the way to become persona non grata on the boards.  

 

Instead, I, like Charlie, suggest you read this entire thread and many of the other movie threads (including past weekend threads) to get a feel for how folks arrive at their early movie box office predictions, how they use early presales to adjust those expectations, and how they use late presales to see if movies are still on proper tracks for their type or are falling off...

 

It's an art, not a science, and it usually takes quite a while of following it closely to do well at it...and even then, many folks on the board are better at certain genres and movie types than others b/c there's SO much to know and consider...

 

That said, pretty much everyone here is better than Deadline...and that's been today's joke...

 

Fair enough. I don't want to derail the thread and to reiterate, I appreciate the work you guys are doing! I'll go back and re-read a little and will hopefully be able to contribute to the conversation.

Edited October 20, 2021 by Sano

[Ronin46]

2 minutes ago, Sano said:

I think I was pretty clear about what my point was and it isn't just a few millions. He himself said that he was getting previews wrong. I knew I was going to get flack for my comment because it was pretty dickish, and that's completely fair. I understand that it's impossible to make entirely accurate predtions but at the same time when you put yourself out there, especially as a vocal participant with strong opinions, you should expect some push back. You can't expect roses and sunshine when miss the mark, especially with bravado, and no one is above (slight) criticism. With that said, I appreciate the work everyone are doing in here and I have been learning a lot.

 

On okay. So you have an agenda against them. Perhaps an older poster who has been banned or maybe a different username from your original account. 

 

Well done. Hopefully if you can annoy them enough you might be able to get them to stop posting. That would be great for everyone here. Right?

[Ronin46]

8 minutes ago, Sano said:

The bias against Dune from @charlie Jatinder just stuck out. With that said, I appreciate the work everyone are doing in here and I have been learning a lot.

 

Actually showing he may well be accurate. The early numbers were showing 45 to 50M opening. Charley was not biting on those numbers and indicated it was very frontloaded preview wise and sales would slow down and they have. 

[ThomasNicole]

What bias? LOL.

 

Data is data, like or dislike something means absolutely nothing for numbers and projections.

 

 

 

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Didn’t expect to need this gif in here…

 

[Sano]

14 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

What bias? LOL.

 

Data is data, like or dislike something means absolutely nothing for numbers and projections.

 

 

 

 

As someone who works in the field of biostatistics, I can attest to that you can never seperate your own bias from the data. There's been dissenting opinions/tracking predictions in this thread from various data points. Bias isn't just disliking something, it's the systematic mistakes we make based on our own, often unconscious, preconceived understanding or prejudices. Anyway, popcorn gifs are in so I'll head out again. Carry on!

Edited October 20, 2021 by Sano

[Starphanluke]

10 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Didn’t expect to need this gif in here…

 

Right?! Here I am just trying to see the pace of ticket sales for the day when BAM! Drama.

[Val357]

I think at this point it's pretty safe to say Eternals is NOT opening over $100M. Presales aren't bad but they don't seem to be indicating anything over the biggest opening weekends we've already seen (Venom: Let There Be Carnage, Black Widow).

[Kalo]

I'm sticking to my gut and saying Dune hit's just barely over $50m. which would be fantastic for DaD. I am extremely bias for this film though so my judgement my be clouded, but the buzz and PoWM is there. that DaD streaming is such a mess for this though. I feel like saying it's hits 50m with it means it would do at least $60m without it. so well see.

Edited October 20, 2021 by Kalo

[Ronin46]

51 minutes ago, Val357 said:

I think at this point it's pretty safe to say Eternals is NOT opening over $100M. Presales aren't bad but they don't seem to be indicating anything over the biggest opening weekends we've already seen (Venom: Let There Be Carnage, Black Widow).

 

I am not sure about that. Its sales I believe are in front of SC and Venom at the same stage. What the movie does in the last week leading in is what will count. Thats where Venom and SC picked up and Bond died. Ticket prices are higher now. The market is also more crowded so that might mute pre sales early on when people are more concerned with getting tickets for Dune/HK/Bond etc and will be waiting for closer to OW before they purchase. Before it was 1 big movie and then a month wait for the next 1.  Now its a different environment and that might be reflective of a different pattern for presales.