The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

17 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Dune Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT): [5:10pm - 5:30pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	109	11878	14793	2915	19.71%

 

Total Showings Reaching Cap Since Mid-Day	1
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	524

 

T-0 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
NTTD [3:50-4:25]	78.00		648	3737		0/178	20981/24718	15.12%		4.84m
TSS [5:40-6:10]	124.94		682	2352		0/111	14491/16843	13.96%		5.08m
SC [4:40-5:30]	49.85		1041	5847		0/196	19856/25703	22.75%		4.39m
V2 [3:50-4:35]	37.80		1369	7712		0/249	26023/33735	22.86%		4.38m

 

T-0 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9 [5:30-6:10]	60.25		1017	4407		0/161	15341/19748	22.32%		4.48m
Dune (adj)	---		467	2655		0/99	10722/13377	19.85%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: DUNE (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in F9's track.

 

Regal: 763/5259 [14.51% sold] [+141 tickets]

 

PLF:  1580/4901 [32.24% sold] | 54.20% of all seats sold

 

====

 

A decent enough day but still off the pace of NTTD locally.  Plugged in some rudimentary guesstimates for what SMG is capping at, otherwise the comps would be worse.  About 10% more PLFs locally for Dune versus NTTD (that was 43.77% of all tickets sold), and it might be underperforming here so let's call for an even 5m +/- .3m.

 

CBMs would suggest something lower, but I reckon there aren't quite as many children's tickets being sold for Dune as there are for the non-R rated CBMs so I'll use NTTD plus a smidge. 

 

Wish it was higher, but data is what the data is.

 

 

(see the weekend thread for the full victory celebration [as well as tagging everyone else who nailed it])

[Inceptionzq]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

NTTD walk ups is already bad enough, But on 2nd thought, NTTD did achieve 10x from pure preview so Dune having weaker walk ups than NTTD is kind of make sense here. Maybe IMAX//PLFs exhausted most of the demand and standard screen didn't receive much spillover like  other standard release. 

Yeah I’m not sure anyone should have expected pure walkups to do better(sales after the first showings of the day started), but I was hoping for a bit better last few days of presales. That really put the nail in the coffin for something like 45M+

[JWR]

So, this bodes well for Dune?

[famicommander]

3 minutes ago, JWR said:

So, this bodes well for Dune?

If Deadline's "insider sources" are to be believed, 300M is the target worldwide gross. It's going to pass that for sure, the only question is by how much.

[ViewerAnon]

This thread is emotional whiplash. Every sort of a doom and gloom "I wish it was doing better..." post is immediately followed by a "It's doing great!" post.

[famicommander]

1 minute ago, ViewerAnon said:

This thread is emotional whiplash. Every sort of a doom and gloom "I wish it was doing better..." post is immediately followed by a "It's doing great!" post.

It's going to be the biggest WB domestic opening since Joker in October 2019. I don't see how anyone could've asked for more considering the pandemic, the staggered global release, the high quality pirate rips, and the day one HBO release.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, ViewerAnon said:

This thread is emotional whiplash. Every sort of a doom and gloom "I wish it was doing better..." post is immediately followed by a "It's doing great!" post.

 

 

Spoiler

Such is the Duality of BOT.  One of its little charms, really.

 

(I know you are well aware of this, of course)

 

 

[ViewerAnon]

The sad thing with DUNE is that if it cost $100 million to make instead of $165 million, a $40M-ish opening and $300M+ worldwide finish wouldn't even be in question as being, at the very least, pretty good.

 

Movies are too expensive now.

[Last Man Standing]

8 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

The sad thing with DUNE is that if it cost $100 million to make instead of $165 million, a $40M-ish opening and $300M+ worldwide finish wouldn't even be in question as being, at the very least, pretty good.

 

Movies are too expensive now.

I really don't see something like Dune being made for 100M, unless you're performing some District 9 type magic on it.

[poweranimals]

2 hours ago, ViewerAnon said:

The sad thing with DUNE is that if it cost $100 million to make instead of $165 million, a $40M-ish opening and $300M+ worldwide finish wouldn't even be in question as being, at the very least, pretty good.

 

Movies are too expensive now.

Yeah, but would it look as good if it cost less to make?

[ViewerAnon]

1 minute ago, poweranimals said:

Yeah, but would it look as good if it cost less to make?

Maybe? 

 

Does Josh Brolin need to be hard-ass military guy? If not, that saves you a couple million dollars.

 

Does Javier Bardem need to play “Hi I’m cameoing so you’ll remember me in the sequel” guy? If not, there’s a few more million saved.

[Steele131]

2 hours ago, ViewerAnon said:

The sad thing with DUNE is that if it cost $100 million to make instead of $165 million, a $40M-ish opening and $300M+ worldwide finish wouldn't even be in question as being, at the very least, pretty good.

 

Movies are too expensive now.

165M is amazing considering every MCU film costs 200M+ and looks worse

[Menor the Destroyer]

Dune midday is at 80724/534169, $965536. I think it's heading for 120k+, which will be ~70% of Bond at least. Given that MTC1 has a better ratio, I think 13 million Friday is where it's headed. 

[EmpireCity]

16 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

Maybe? 

 

Does Josh Brolin need to be hard-ass military guy? If not, that saves you a couple million dollars.

 

Does Javier Bardem need to play “Hi I’m cameoing so you’ll remember me in the sequel” guy? If not, there’s a few more million saved.

 

Ultimately, who cares because this isn't a decade ago.  The budget doesn't matter now that they need streaming content.  

 

WB is going to make the sequel, because the economics have changed.  They want content and paying $150m or $250m means nothing when they are building towards a certain number of subscribers years from now.  

[Elessar]

17 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

Maybe? 

 

Does Josh Brolin need to be hard-ass military guy? If not, that saves you a couple million dollars.

 

Does Javier Bardem need to play “Hi I’m cameoing so you’ll remember me in the sequel” guy? If not, there’s a few more million saved.

 

Do we know that each of the aforementioned actors got a couple millions for their role? Even if so, that would still be well above your $100m.

 

Btw, nobody is as bad ass as Josh Brolin, so that would be a huge loss.

[john2000]

guys again this is the tracking thread, if you want to talk about dune or hbo max etc then there is already a thread for that.

[famicommander]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

Dune midday is at 80724/534169, $965536. I think it's heading for 120k+, which will be ~70% of Bond at least. Given that MTC1 has a better ratio, I think 13 million Friday is where it's headed. 

So it sounds like even worst case scenario we're looking at something like

5+13+10+5=33M?

 

Hopefully more like

5+13+15+8=41?

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, famicommander said:

So it sounds like even worst case scenario we're looking at something like

5+13+10+5=33M?

 

Hopefully more like

5+13+15+8=41?

13 isn't worst case, it's just where I think it's heading. I could see it going lower if it just falls off completely at night. 

[von Kenni]

21 minutes ago, famicommander said:

So it sounds like even worst case scenario we're looking at something like

5+13+10+5=33M?

 

Hopefully more like

5+13+15+8=41?

Referring to my earlier BW & NTTD models for the weekend, if Dune does closer to BW but a bit better, it needs about 13 true Friday, and if it does closer to NTTD but a bit worse, 12.5 should be enough to crack 40 OW. For 45 OW it would need 14 Fri with closer to NTTD weekend, and closer to 15 with BW model. In short close to 13 will crack 40 OW and 14.5 unlocks 45 OW.

[xiazhi]

1 hour ago, Steele131 said:

165M is amazing considering every MCU film costs 200M+ and looks worse

shang chi costs 150m and it looks great