The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Are people surprised that Ghostbusters sales are strong after BOP's 45-65M tracking?  

 

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

Ghostbusters MTC2

 

Thursday:

Showtimes: 2047

Seats Sold: 4456/347807

$ Sales: 63369

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 3141

Seats Sold: 4994/538680

$ Sales: 62537

 

I like this start quite a bit. Don't have any great comps though. I took Bond day 1 which was around 5111 tickets sold for Thu (not including Wed), but I would expect this to have better walkups...I think? 

 

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Ghostbusters has sold a solid handful of seats near me with the catch that most of them are for (you guessed it) the IMAX/PLF formats. What does this mean for this movie (along with the overall state of box office that continues to ask the question of "what will be the first movie that does well without large screen formats")? As @Porthos said, only time will tell!

 

You guys are actually making me waver slightly on not tracking this, you know.

 

Thing is, this is just such a weird duck.  Comedies should be like horror or family films and be pretty walkup driven (and thus late sales).  But this is a nostalgia piece, so who knows.  And the comp against F9 (also walkup driven) still points to sub 4m (3.76m, adj for the record).

 

I dunno.  Maybe if @Inceptionzq has some strong numbers out of Denver, I'll reconsider (if he tracks it that is).

 

...

 

Let There Be Carnage is somewhat comedic right?

 

Bah. 

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Are people surprised that Ghostbusters sales are strong after BOP's 45-65M tracking?  

TBH, yes. I don't pay much attention to traditional tracking, waiting for MTC1 sales data but the morning data Keyser gave suggested more than high end of BoP.

Edited November 2, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

 

 

You guys are actually making me waver slightly on not tracking this, you know.

 

Thing is, this is just such a weird duck.  Comedies should be like horror or family films and be pretty walkup driven (and thus late sales).  But this is a nostalgia piece, so who knows.  And the comp against F9 (also walkup driven) still points to sub 4m (3.76m, adj for the record).

 

I dunno.  Maybe if @Inceptionzq has some strong numbers out of Denver, I'll reconsider (if he tracks it that is).

 

...

 

Let There Be Carnage is somewhat comedic right?

 

Bah. 

tbh Ghostbusters: Afterlife really isn't being sold as a comedy. It's being sold as a Spielberg/Stranger Things-esque sci-fi movie first and foremost. The 2016 movie was definitely sold as a comedy, in comparison.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Avatar Legion said:

Why not? Family action-ish comedy should have a pretty good final/day 1 as a baseline, right?

 

I guess I'm just stuck on the fan rush angle of G:A.  Also, I guess I find it dangerous to comp anything to Let There Be Carnage until we something else repeat it's pre-sale pattern.

 

Still, as I said F9 is pointing to sub 4m as well.  A quick scan of my comps, only AQP II is also good (124.38% for 6.25m).

 

...

 

 

Just don't want to track another 5m-ish movie when it comes right down to it.  

[Legion Again]

Yeah the nostalgia is what complicates things. Maybe give it another few days and see how MTCs/other regionals are holding.

[keysersoze123]

Eternals 

MTC1 Prev(T-3) - 96944/423824 1645916.02 2291 shows +8373

MTC1 Friday(T-4) - 86111/790661 1449243.55 4065 shows +12234

MTC1 Saturday(T-5) - 69653/833931 1095406.01 4279 shows +9285

 

Ok its definitely making a strong comeback.  While Previews are still well behind SC growth for the day, Friday/Saturday growth are super strong. Definitely think double digit previews is back on the menu. 

 

Comps.

On 10/31/2021 at 8:50 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Eternals MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 88571/398965 1515510.13 2102 shows +4531

Friday(T-5) - 73877/733911 1257755.97 3648 shows +6480

Saturday(T-6) - 60368/785934 956345.10 3910 shows +5487

 

On 7/6/2021 at 10:13 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Black Widow MTC1 (Tuesday Morning)

Previews - 123086/621483 3580 shows

Friday - 114140/914070 4765 shows

Saturday - 72055/945040 4909 shows

 

 

On 8/30/2021 at 9:56 PM, keysersoze123 said:

 

Shang Chi Previews(T-3)

MTC1 -  78642/441765 1287866.04 2488 shows

MTC2 -  42607/371804 584441.15 2486 shows

 

Shang Chi Friday (T-4)

MTC1 - 67416/811682 1068625.43 4169 shows

MTC2 -  38487/718208 482424.13 4412 shows

 

Shang Chi Saturday (T-5)

MTC1 -  42227/784895 616377.49 3819 shows

MTC2 - 24862/729640 287777.02 4470 show

 

Edited November 2, 2021 by keysersoze123

[WrathOfHan]

With these sales, it'll have no trouble retaining PLFs over Thanksgiving instead of Encanto taking over.

[keysersoze123]

18 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

 

You guys are actually making me waver slightly on not tracking this, you know.

 

Thing is, this is just such a weird duck.  Comedies should be like horror or family films and be pretty walkup driven (and thus late sales).  But this is a nostalgia piece, so who knows.  And the comp against F9 (also walkup driven) still points to sub 4m (3.76m, adj for the record).

 

I dunno.  Maybe if @Inceptionzq has some strong numbers out of Denver, I'll reconsider (if he tracks it that is).

 

...

 

Let There Be Carnage is somewhat comedic right?

 

Bah. 

 

How about tracking it like twice a week or so until final week or so. That way it does not take too much time and you can obviously bail out if things dont look rosy. 

[Legion Again]

13 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

With these sales, it'll have no trouble retaining PLFs over Thanksgiving instead of Encanto taking over.

Dunno about that. Even if this debuts at 70 it’s probably under Encanto for the 2nd weekend.

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

How about tracking it like twice a week or so until final week or so. That way it does not take too much time and you can obviously bail out if things dont look rosy. 

 

But if I do that, my latent OCD will want me to track it every day on my home sheet anyway.

 

I ended up doing that for Hobbs & Shaw when I stopped reporting it here and...

 

...

 

That's still not a great example when it comes to me not tracking it, is it?

 

Tell y'all what.  I'll do informal checks over the next couple of days and see where it goes.

Edited November 2, 2021 by Porthos

[filmlover]

Yeah, no way Disney isn't getting Encanto into large screen formats for Thanksgiving regardless of how Ghostbusters does. Especially when the same large screen formats will have to drop Spider-Man for The Matrix after 5 days despite the former locked to have a monstrous opening a few weeks later.

[keysersoze123]

Ghostbusters Afterlife MTC1

Previews(T-17) - 10849/337977 190041.99 1599 shows

Friday(T-18) - 6398/515675 106157.10 2388 shows

 

Not bad at all. Definitely see it opening above 40m as I posted earlier. Let us see how things move for this. Nostalgia FTW.

Edited November 2, 2021 by keysersoze123

[WrathOfHan]

22 minutes ago, Avatar Legion said:

Dunno about that. Even if this debuts at 70 it’s probably under Encanto for the 2nd weekend.

Worst case scenario is an Eternals/Ghostbusters split imo. Encanto opens in 3 weeks and there's such little buzz for it. Encanto is another Good Dino in the making without seeing tracking

Edited November 2, 2021 by WrathOfHan

[XXR vs XXR]

44 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ok its definitely making a strong comeback. 

@john2000 Get in here! Keyser says Eternals is definitely gonna hit $15m previews and he’ll give us both $37 if it doesn’t!! 😱

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ghostbusters Afterlife MTC1

Previews(T-17) - 10849/337977 190041.99 1599 shows

Friday(T-18) - 6398/515675 106157.10 2388 shows

 

Not bad at all. Definitely see it opening above 40m as I posted earlier. Let us see how things move for this. Nostalgia FTW.

Ok that's lower than what I thought after 8k in 4 hours. 

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Ok that's lower than what I thought after 8k in 4 hours. 

 

This wont be frontloaded when its comes to its IM. So it needs 4m to hit 40m. For that it needs 75K in MTC1. I cant see it missing from here. Let us see how things go rest of its Presales. 

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

@john2000 Get in here! Keyser says Eternals is definitely gonna hit $15m previews and he’ll give us both $37 if it doesn’t!! 😱

What on earth is $37 all about. May  be I can give you both a 1 SHIB each if it hits 15m :-) That is your retirement fund basically. 

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Ok that's lower than what I thought after 8k in 4 hours. 

cRuMbLiNg after just 9 hours, Ghostbusters claims another record

[Inceptionzq]

54 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I guess I'm just stuck on the fan rush angle of G:A.  Also, I guess I find it dangerous to comp anything to Let There Be Carnage until we something else repeat it's pre-sale pattern.

 

Still, as I said F9 is pointing to sub 4m as well.  A quick scan of my comps, only AQP II is also good (124.38% for 6.25m).

 

...

 

 

Just don't want to track another 5m-ish movie when it comes right down to it.  

[filmlover]

Encanto is in a unique situation because in theory, a Disney movie over Thanksgiving is usually a big deal (Raya would've been their entry in 2020 had the year gone as planned) but at the same time, it's going to be available on D+ with no additional paywall by Christmas Day, so there's sort of a sense that they're kinda just taking the L on it without going the Premier Access route (thank you for killing that ScarJo? lol). This and Sing 2 will be the big tests as to whether a family movie (PG-rated titles, not ones also aiming for a broader audience ala Disney-branded Cruella or Jungle Cruise) can survive in the COVID era since everything else that has been released in theaters so far has topped out at below $60M but were also available to watch at home at the same time.