The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Eternals 

MTC1 Prev(T-3) - 96944/423824 1645916.02 2291 shows +8373

MTC1 Friday(T-4) - 86111/790661 1449243.55 4065 shows +12234

MTC1 Saturday(T-5) - 69653/833931 1095406.01 4279 shows +9285

 

Ok its definitely making a strong comeback.  While Previews are still well behind SC growth for the day, Friday/Saturday growth are super strong. Definitely think double digit previews is back on the menu. 

 

Comps.

 

 

 

Is the Eternals pace 24 hours? If so then it's probably not that much behind SC, since your SC pace was for 27.5 hours, and the night hours are the big sellers. 

[Legion Again]

Sing 2 is definitely the December release that needs a long PS run 🤨  

 

Spoiler

Translation: I hunger for some properly YUGE presales and Sony is not cooperating.

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

59 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, to get a feel for final Eternals sets (ie show bumps)...final sets at my Cinemarks:)...

 

My 1st Cinemark set to ONLY three full screens (smallest MCU supers set of 2021) - funny enough it's 7 PLF showings, 5 regulars showings - quite an abnormal split on this theater, but I guess they are expecting the PLF trend to hold and to not draw a lot of families (who almost never buy PLFs)...

 

My 2nd Cinemark set to 3.5 screens with 1 3d showing and the rest regular (13 showings) (it doesn't have true PLF)...

 

Not totally surprising with how crowded the marketplace is, how presales have trended, and how reviews have gone...and possibly how much Disney is asking:)...

 

But keep it in mind - there may not be the normal enormous showings bump, and even with more openings, Eternals may not surpass BW and Shang Chi for final showings and seats...

 

PS - Amazingly, Soho was already dropped by one of the 2 theaters, so wow, not great screen negotiation there (Antlers stayed on a 1/2 and a full, and MHA was the winner of newbies last weekend and on screens next weekend as it keeps a full at both)...

Did Eternals have more initial shows than BW and SC in your theaters? In my tracking it was always behind both in showtimes (and way behind BW). 

[filmlover]

Sing 2 has been sitting on the shelf finished for a while (earned its MPA rating all the way back in March and will be premiering at AFI Fest later this month) so it makes sense that tickets for its Christmas week opening are already going on sale.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

Is the Eternals pace 24 hours? If so then it's probably not that much behind SC, since your SC pace was for 27.5 hours, and the night hours are the big sellers. 

Not this early. Even morning check with new shows put it at 98468/433257 1669893.78 2350 shows and even with that its below SC pace where it did about 11K. 

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

Did Eternals have more initial shows than BW and SC in your theaters? In my tracking it was always behind both in showtimes (and way behind BW). 

 

It was always behind...and it did not bump to make up for it...4 screens is usually the final set "Marvel min" with many Marvels getting 5-6 screens...even at the 12s...so, under 4 screens for final set is unusual...all I can think is that Disney went back to original revenue split terms b/c for my Cinemarks to both book additional new movies not expected to do much (1 3 foreign titles and the other Spencer and Red Notice) is not a huge vote of confidence in its overall revenue potential for them...

Edited November 2, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

PS - Amazingly, Soho was already dropped by one of the 2 theaters, so wow, not great screen negotiation there (Antlers stayed on a 1/2 and a full, and MHA was the winner of newbies last weekend and on screens next weekend as it keeps a full at both)...

I mean, $1,300 PTA means a lot of empty seats and showtimes. It's also sort of an indie too so it makes sense that theaters will face zero punishment if they drop it early.

[Inceptionzq]

2 hours ago, Avatar Legion said:

Sing 2 is definitely the December release that needs a long PS run 🤨  

 

  Hide contents

Translation: I hunger for some properly YUGE presales and Sony is not cooperating.

 

Don’t worry you’ll get your long presales run for Morbius 

[Krissykins]

If Shang-Chi did $8.8m previews, $10m would be solid for Eternals?
 

It’s hard to work out what its three-day multiplier could be though, as Shang-Chi had a holiday weekend and Black Widow was on Disney+/piracy sites and was incredibly frontloaded. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Despite 1500 theaters, Spencer is annoyingly not coming to Cinemark. Good thing Red Notice is hogging up a screen!

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

If Shang-Chi did $8.8m previews, $10m would be solid for Eternals?
 

It’s hard to work out what its three-day multiplier could be though, as Shang-Chi had a holiday weekend and Black Widow was on Disney+/piracy sites and was incredibly frontloaded. 

i think a 8 multi is realistic , shang chi multi was 8,5 in comparison

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Despite 1500 theaters, Spencer is annoyingly not coming to Cinemark. Good thing Red Notice is hogging up a screen!

Hmm, it's coming to plenty of them looking around. Must be a regional thing.

[Ronin46]

Just now, john2000 said:

i think a 8 multi is realistic , shang chi multi was 8,5 in comparison

 

I think that storm dented previews for SC by a few hundred K that pushed sales to later in the weekend. I dont think Eternals will be able to do an 8X.

Maybe 7.5 and 10M/75M

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

Maybe 7.5 and 10M/75M

$73M is my target. At this point, anything over that is a win in my book.

[Danhjpn]

16 minutes ago, john2000 said:

i think a 8 multi is realistic , shang chi multi was 8,5 in comparison

ShangChi is 8.8x

[john2000]

Just now, Danhjpn said:

ShangChi is 8.8x

no it had 8,8 previews and a 8,5 multi

[ThomasNicole]

Presales for Eternals after previews seems healthy (maybe due to it's lenght).

 

Unless the WOM is very bad i think +8x is doable.

[Cmasterclay]

Shang Chi had a holiday Sunday, so it would make sense for this to have significantly less.

[TwoMisfits]

3 hours ago, Avatar Legion said:

Sing 2 is definitely the December release that needs a long PS run 🤨  

 

  Hide contents

Translation: I hunger for some properly YUGE presales and Sony is not cooperating.

 

 

Probably hoping families will buy this Christmas outing, too (as an under the tree present) - if it beats Spidey in to the presale market, maybe that works...

Edited November 2, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[TwoMisfits]

34 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Despite 1500 theaters, Spencer is annoyingly not coming to Cinemark. Good thing Red Notice is hogging up a screen!

 

No, Spencer is coming to Cinemark - just not all Cinemarks - mine booked at one, but not the other...