The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

You forgot to put the numbers for previews. 

Clicked submit too soon when I was on a call. I have edited my post. :-)

[keysersoze123]

I think my MTC2 tracking is also working again. Updated post with numbers. My numbers are higher but I ran it just now with few more shows. 

[Liiviig 1998]

Legs for November marvel movies.

 

TDW -2.4*

Ragnarok 2.56*

DS 2.73*

Legs will be within this range according to reception.

 

Pretty shocked ragnarok legs were  that low. Did justice league really affect it that much.

[ThomasNicole]

One thing that is good for Eternals is that besides Ghostbusters there's no big competition until NWH (and they can do Double Features with this one).

 

Unless audience reception is a disaster should do +2.5x OW

[Eric the Ape]

On 11/1/2021 at 10:09 PM, Eric loves Ajak said:

Eternals Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	63	2741	12311	22.26%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 112

Total Seats Sold Today: 245

 

Comp

0.750x of Black Widow T-3 (9.9M)

1.191x of Shang-Chi T-3 (10.48M)

 

I mean it's stabilized from Widow, but I'm still not fully confident in 10M+ previews here. Sorry guys.

Eternals Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	82	3136	15000	20.91%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 19

Total Seats Added Today: 2,689

Total Seats Sold Today: 395

 

Comp

0.731x of Black Widow T-2 (9.65M)

1.194x of Shang-Chi T-2 (10.5M)

 

Some may be concerned at the Black Widow drop, but Widow between T-2 and T-3 more than doubled in terms of ticket sales. A true explosion that most films just don't get, even at this time. T-2 to T-1 is about a 19% jump for Widow, so Eternals should hopefully be more manageable. Of course, that is easier said than done.

[Eric the Ape]

On 11/1/2021 at 10:21 PM, Eric loves Ajak said:

Ghostbusters: Afterlife Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	59	252	13241	1.90%

 

Comp

1.135x of The Suicide Squad T-17 (4.65M)

0.494x of Shang-Chi T-17 (4.35M)

0.574x of Venom 2 T-17 (6.66M)

0.529x of No Time to Die T-17 (3.33M)

 

So I don't feel I have perfect comps per se with this. The closest I can think of for Afterlife, a family-skewing PG-13 tentpole, was stuff like Jungle Cruise and Free Guy, but those didn't start presales until much closer to release and had miniscule sales on their first day for obvious reasons. But honestly...it's already on day 1 at about a third of both movies' final sales. And these comps aren't so bad I suppose.

 

What I'm trying to say is...nostalgia sells baby.

Ghostbusters: Afterlife Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	62	333	14023	2.37%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 3

Total Seats Added Today: 782

Total Seats Sold Today: 81

 

Comp

1.417x of The Suicide Squad T-16 (5.81M)

0.472x of Shang-Chi T-16 (4.15M)

0.683x of Venom 2 T-16 (7.93M)

0.654x of No Time to Die T-16 (4.12M)

[XXR vs XXR]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think its going for 10m previews and 80m+ OW. 

[John Marston]

Opening above Shang Chi? Don’t see it

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

Opening above Shang Chi? Don’t see it

[TalismanRing]

NY Local (5pm)

 

Eternals:  293/1753 (not a huge jump so comps tightened up)

 

Again among these SC is the important comp because of area demographics

 

COMPS

Joker: $9.77m
Shang-Chi: $11.01m
Birds Of Prey: $13.95m
Bond: $18.02m
Venom 2: $21.11m
The Suicide Squad: $21.22m
Dune: $21.34m

 

 

[Porthos]

On 11/1/2021 at 11:06 PM, Porthos said:

 

Eternals Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	118	13711	17148	3437	20.04%

 

Total Showings Added Today	17
Total Seats Added Today	1180
Total Seats Sold Today	397

 

T-3 Comp

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
SC	125.39		335	2741		0/156	19111/21852	12.54%		11.03m
BW	67.47		469	5094		0/193	22219/27313	18.65%		9.33m

COMP NOTE: The Black Widow comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Regal: 770/5221 [14.75% sold] [+107 tickets]

 

=====

 

As of last night, Eternals needed to do pretty much 80% of Black Widow the rest of the way to have a reasonable shot at hitting 10m on the BW comp (79.04% to be exact).

 

The T-3 BW comp was 84.65% which beat that target (375 tickets sold) by a comfortable margin.

 

Only one day, but it's pretty much exactly what it needed to bring 10m+ back into the picture.  Hence, the beating heart gif.

 

Probs bring in Let There Be Carnage tomorrow as while it'll still be off, should be catching up pretty rapidly.

 

The one cautionary note here still is the showtimes.  Only a few theaters had their full slates get put up tonight tho, so still room for expansion if they want to.  But do feel the relative lack of showtimes must be noted as folks might decide not to grab a marginal seat on Thr, opting to wait 'till later in the OW.

 

Eternals Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	130	14226	18159	3933	21.66%

 

Total Showings Added Today	12
Total Seats Added Today	1011
Total Seats Sold Today	496

 

T-2 Comp

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
SC	119.95		490	3279		0/183	21325/24604	13.33%		10.56m
V2	104.74		718	3755		0/241	29214/32969	11.39%		12.15m
BW	67.81		706	5800		0/241	25079/30879	18.78%		9.37m

COMP NOTE: The Black Widow comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Regal: 899/5945 [15.12% sold] [+129 tickets]

 

====

 

Wasn't able to keep up the momentum of yesterday locally, I'm afraid.  Eternals did about 70% of BW's T-2 and more or less matched pace with SC (the SC comp was hit a bit as this is when I found out there was an early access showing which added some already sold tickets to the total).  Naturally, the Let There Be Carnage comp is still outta whack, but I put it in anyway.

 

The relatively good news is that yesterday provided a decent amount of cushion, so we're back to needing almost exactly 80% of BW over the last two days for Sacramento to more or less point to 10m (80.24% of BW the rest of the way or 2725 tickets sold).  Not out of the realm of possibility, but there needs to be more days like Monday.  If they're like today or a little better, probably looking at something closer to 9.5m or 9.7m

[charlie Jatinder]

76% Egg in Korea. Yikes. WOM will be bad.

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

76% Egg in Korea. Yikes. WOM will be bad.

Couple of Korea specific issues, I’d wait on other markets. That said, the critic to audience correlation for the mcu is reasonably high, so…

[john2000]

11 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

76% Egg in Korea. Yikes. WOM will be bad.

1) shouldnt we discuss the wom on another thread,2)i wouldnt worry that much, shang chi also wasnt received very well in korea either for other reason but still, its still early, at worse the wom will be that of venom 2 which isnt the first time for the mcu anyways , thor 2 also had the same wom.

[john2000]

9 minutes ago, Avatar Legion said:

Couple of Korea specific issues, I’d wait on other markets. That said, the critic to audience correlation for the mcu is reasonably high, so…

it depends really critics score for antman 2,bw ,captain marvel were higher than what the wom from the audiences was,i cant imagine a scenario that the movie will be hated or trashed , at worst it will be probably considered a mediocre/average movie.

[Eric the Ape]

Just realized something I forgot to mention last night: Ghostbusters: Afterlife is having some IMAX Early Access screenings. It doesn't seem as widespread as No Time to Die was (I only have three of my theaters doing this), but I wanted to throw that out there for those who are busy tracking it.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 9/17/2021 at 8:24 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

From what I can see so far...

AMC - 182

Regal - 76

Other - 27

Total - 285

 

All just one showing at 7pm

 

On 9/20/2021 at 1:26 AM, Porthos said:

Bothernation. 

 

It's been bugging me that there wasn't a NTTD early access showing over at Century Arden and as I was thinking about keyzersoze123's post it suddenly occurred to me that Cinemark might be playing games once again.

 

Checked a few minutes ago, and sure enough, locally at least Cinemark is NOT selling tickets for its NTTD Early Access Wed shows on Fandango or on Atom.  Apparently they're only for sale on their corp site.  Again, at least locally.

 

Since I'm using Fandango nearly exclusively now (for about 95% of my searches), I didn't catch it 'till now.  Only will affect the comps going backward for the first two days, and it's only two showings (though a fair amount of tickets sold) so I don't really care about that.  But I thought I should mention it to any trackers who might not be using the Cinemark corp site to check ticket sales.

 

@katnisscinnaplex @Inceptionzq @Eric and the Ten Rings

 

(I don't know how many of y'all use the various corp sites or stick to the national ticket sellers, but I figured I should mention it just to be safe)

 

20 minutes ago, Eric loves Ajak said:

Just realized something I forgot to mention last night: Ghostbusters: Afterlife is having some IMAX Early Access screenings. It doesn't seem as widespread as No Time to Die was (I only have three of my theaters doing this), but I wanted to throw that out there for those who are busy tracking it.

 

Thanks Eric.  I went back to NTTD and found that some of these weren't listed on Fandango.  That doesn't seem to be the case for this one as one of the Cinemarks I track has it listed on Fandango.   For overall comparisons, I quoted the report I ran for NTTD early shows (285 total).  Ghostbusters currently has 140 listed on the same report for 11/17.  Here's the breakdown:

 

AMC: 40

Cinemark: 45

Regal: 32

Other: 23

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 11/2/2021 at 8:40 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-16	Ghostbusters	Jacksonville	6	50	8,137	42	42	0.52%
		Phoenix	5	27	4,640	101	101	2.18%
		Raleigh	7	28	4,025	90	90	2.24%
	Ghostbusters Total		18	105	16,802	233	233	1.39%
T-2	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	53	8,810	906	99	10.28%
		Phoenix	7	43	6,939	1,142	156	16.46%
		Raleigh	8	37	4,098	969	104	23.65%
	Eternals Total		21	133	19,847	3,017	359	15.20%
	Spencer	Jacksonville	3	5	336	4	2	1.19%
		Phoenix	3	6	630	21	5	3.33%
		Raleigh	1	2	100	15	6	15.00%
	Spencer Total		7	13	1,066	40	13	3.75%

 

Eternals comps

BW - .738x (9.75m)

SC - 1.44x (12.67m)

 

It's trying to make a push for 10m and I think it might just get there.

 

Ghostbusters comps

TSS - 1x (4.1m)

NTTD - .715x (3.72m)

Venom 2 - .61x (7.09m)

 

All three of these already had a few days of sales under their belt at this point, so I'd say that's a really good start.  Really just reinforcing what the other areas are showing.

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	67	10,040	1,035	129	10.31%
		Phoenix	7	56	8,820	1,285	143	14.57%
		Raleigh	8	37	4,098	1,097	128	26.77%
	Eternals Total		21	160	22,958	3,417	400	14.88%
	Spencer	Jacksonville	3	7	413	7	3	1.69%
		Phoenix	3	7	799	25	4	3.13%
		Raleigh	2	3	164	18	3	10.98%
	Spencer Total		8	17	1,376	50	10	3.63%
T-14	Ghostbusters (Wed)	Jacksonville	2	2	558	0	0	0.00%
	Ghostbusters (Wed) Total		2	2	558	0	0	0.00%
T-15	Ghostbusters	Jacksonville	7	52	8,475	56	14	0.66%
		Phoenix	5	27	4,640	132	31	2.84%
		Raleigh	7	28	4,025	103	13	2.56%
	Ghostbusters Total		19	107	17,140	291	58	1.70%

 

Eternals comps

BW - .731x (9.65m)

SC - 1.395x (12.28m)

TSS - 3.566x (14.6m)

Venom 2 - 1.292x (14.99m)

 

The other comps are slowly coming into focus.  I expected more from yesterday to be honest - still hoping for around 10m.

 

Ghostbusters comps

TSS - 1.228x (5.03m)

NTTD - .822x (4.27m)

[Danhjpn]

1 minute ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	67	10,040	1,035	129	10.31%
		Phoenix	7	56	8,820	1,285	143	14.57%
		Raleigh	8	37	4,098	1,097	128	26.77%
	Eternals Total		21	160	22,958	3,417	400	14.88%
	Spencer	Jacksonville	3	7	413	7	3	1.69%
		Phoenix	3	7	799	25	4	3.13%
		Raleigh	2	3	164	18	3	10.98%
	Spencer Total		8	17	1,376	50	10	3.63%
T-14	Ghostbusters (Wed)	Jacksonville	2	2	558	0	0	0.00%
	Ghostbusters (Wed) Total		2	2	558	0	0	0.00%
T-15	Ghostbusters	Jacksonville	7	52	8,475	56	14	0.66%
		Phoenix	5	27	4,640	132	31	2.84%
		Raleigh	7	28	4,025	103	13	2.56%
	Ghostbusters Total		19	107	17,140	291	58	1.70%

 

Eternals comps

BW - .731x (9.65m)

SC - 1.395x (12.28m)

TSS - 3.566x (14.6m)

Venom 2 - 1.292x (14.99m)

 

The other comps are slowly coming into focus.  I expected more from yesterday to be honest - still hoping for around 10m.

 

Ghostbusters comps

TSS - 1.228x (5.03m)

NTTD - .822x (4.27m)

Why don't you just take the average of these number? 

[katnisscinnaplex]

17 minutes ago, Danhjpn said:

Why don't you just take the average of these number? 

Sometimes I'll add the average in.  In this case, I don't really expect Eternals to perform like TSS or Venom but I wanted to show the comparisons anyway just to get a sense.   If I was to average anything, it would probably be BW and SC (10.96) but over the past week the BW comp has been steady while the SC comp continues to drop.