The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Legion Again]

Lots of kids will be vaccinated by the time Encanto comes out… but the people silly enough to be waiting on that will probably be waiting for 2 weeks after a 2nd shot or whatever.

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Avatar Legion said:

Lots of kids will be vaccinated by the time Encanto comes out… but the people silly enough to be waiting on that will probably be waiting for 2 weeks after a 2nd shot or whatever.

Nah. No point in taking kids to plex when you can catch in D+ in few weeks after that. That is waste of money for sure. This is definitely not a must watch on the big screen. 

[Inceptionzq]

Ghostbusters Afterlife Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

39

1660

2.35%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

53

1937

2.74%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 12.5 HRS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
222	222	15803	1.40%	15	79

 

AMCs sold	191
Cinemarks sold	11
Regals sold	14
Harkins sold	6

 

NTTD day one comp(16 hours): 5.26M

 

Not really sure what comps to use, especially this early on. So I'll just stick to this for tonight and add F9 tomorrow. Solid start though, but let's see how the pace drops over the next couple days.

Edited November 2, 2021 by Inceptionzq

[charlie Jatinder]

The monday pace is mixed bag but definitely in right direction and that was needed. Now hopefully Tuesday shows that it wasn't just a odd day out.

 

Not sold on $10M+ yet, but let's see if Tue and Wed can do that.

[charlie Jatinder]

21 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

This wont be frontloaded when its comes to its IM. So it needs 4m to hit 40m. For that it needs 75K in MTC1. I cant see it missing from here. Let us see how things go rest of its Presales. 

No that's not my issue. In fact I think IM could very well be 11x+. Thing was I was thinking if 8k in 4 hours, full day could be 15k+. That would have suggested $65M+ weekend.

[Inceptionzq]

Ghostbusters Afterlife Megaplex

 

T-17 days Thursday(56 showings): 108/19379 in 14 theaters

 

NTTD day one comp(16 hours): 2.05M

 

T-18 days Friday(86 showings): 105/31653 in 14 theaters

 

NTTD day one comp(16 hours): 6.43M

 

NTTD was quite strong at Megaplex, so not too surprised at these numbers. Started ahead of Venom 2 at least.

[filmlover]

I think Disney cares more about awards for Encanto than they do about box office, especially when LMM's involvement automatically makes it a contender for Original Song and being one of three horses they have in the race for Animated Feature. They'll also have three animated movies competing next year too (Pixar returning to the big screen with Turning Red and Lightyear + a currently untitled Disney Animation movie set to be their annual Thanksgiving entry) but with theatrical exclusives at first again.

[Inceptionzq]

Ghostbusters Afterlife Drafthouse

 

T-17 days Thursday(99 showings): 1187/15765

 

T-18 days Friday(108 showings): 848/17586

 

Seems like a good start, but got nothing on the comp side of things.

[WrathOfHan]

34 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Encanto is in a unique situation because in theory, a Disney movie over Thanksgiving is usually a big deal (Raya would've been their entry in 2020 had the year gone as planned) but at the same time, it's going to be available on D+ with no additional paywall by Christmas Day, so there's sort of a sense that they're kinda just taking the L on it without going the Premier Access route (thank you for killing that ScarJo? lol). This and Sing 2 will be the big tests as to whether a family movie (PG-rated titles, not ones also aiming for a broader audience ala Disney-branded Cruella or Jungle Cruise) can survive in the COVID era since everything else that has been released in theaters so far has topped out at below $60M but were also available to watch at home at the same time.

Encanto will do better than Raya by virtue of being in a much different part of the pandemic, but we're not going to see the impact of 5-11 being vaccinated until Christmas for two reasons:

 

1. There's a two week waiting period for vaccine efficacy

2. Only 20-30% of parents are going to get their kids vaccinated immediately. The rest will wait a few weeks or don't care at all like we're seeing with 12-16.

 

These factors don't even guarantee 100M based on other animated releases this year, but I think it scrapes by that mark. There's no doubt that Sing will outgross Encanto, and I'm sure that'd be the case in a normal year too.

[Porthos]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Eternals Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	101	12928	15968	3040	19.04%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

191

 

T-4 Comp

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
SC	126.35		261	2406		0/113	15205/17611	13.66%		11.12m
BW	65.73		305	4625		0/193	22688/27313	16.93%		9.09m

COMP NOTE: The Black Widow comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Regal: 663/4997 [13.27% sold] [+57 tickets]

 

====

 

The bleeding stopped, but the patient is still in the ER is the best way to put this, I think.  Eternals saw a much better Sat->Sun jump (+93%) than either SC (+43%) or BW (+22%) locally.  Problem was, it was in a such major hole on both Fri and Sat that the jump was only good enough to more or less stabilize the BW comp and stop its drop.

 

Still, a turnaround from the frankly abysmal last couple of days.

 

Eternals Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	118	13711	17148	3437	20.04%

 

Total Showings Added Today	17
Total Seats Added Today	1180
Total Seats Sold Today	397

 

T-3 Comp

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
SC	125.39		335	2741		0/156	19111/21852	12.54%		11.03m
BW	67.47		469	5094		0/193	22219/27313	18.65%		9.33m

COMP NOTE: The Black Widow comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Regal: 770/5221 [14.75% sold] [+107 tickets]

 

=====

 

As of last night, Eternals needed to do pretty much 80% of Black Widow the rest of the way to have a reasonable shot at hitting 10m on the BW comp (79.04% to be exact).

 

The T-3 BW comp was 84.65% which beat that target (375 tickets sold) by a comfortable margin.

 

Only one day, but it's pretty much exactly what it needed to bring 10m+ back into the picture.  Hence, the beating heart gif.

 

Probs bring in Let There Be Carnage tomorrow as while it'll still be off, should be catching up pretty rapidly.

 

The one cautionary note here still is the showtimes.  Only a few theaters had their full slates get put up tonight tho, so still room for expansion if they want to.  But do feel the relative lack of showtimes must be noted as folks might decide not to grab a marginal seat on Thr, opting to wait 'till later in the OW.

[Legion Again]

Good thing it went to 59 from 60 or we wouldn’t have all these rubberneckers pumping sales 

[Porthos]

What the hell’s with the Willie reaction, @charlie Jatinder?   

 

I thought it was an entirely appropriate gif for a movie that appears to be coming back to life.  I mean, it’s not all the way there yet, but this is the best sign for it in days.

Edited November 2, 2021 by Porthos

[Porthos]

38 minutes ago, Avatar Legion said:

Good thing it went to 59 from 60 or we wouldn’t have all these rubberneckers pumping sales 

More proof, if we even needed it, that Feige is a genius, I tell ya.  Always five moves ahead of everyone else. 👍

 

Edited November 2, 2021 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

On 10/29/2021 at 1:16 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Eternals Harkins T-7 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	214	54,016	1,413	2.62%	$16,543	$11.71
Cine 1	16	4,818	1,451	30.12%	$22,363	$15.41
Cine Capri	4	1,782	99	5.56%	$1,413	$14.27
IMAX	2	890	239	26.85%	$3,585	$15.00
3D	12	1,704	19	1.12%	$242	$12.74
Total	248	63,210	3,221	5.10%	$44,146	$13.71

 

Comps

1.57x Shang Chi T-7 Days - $13.82M

0.85x Black Widow T-7 Days - $11.6M (adjusted for Canada)

 

Just awful. Added 532 seats in last 3 days, compared to 893 of Black Widow & 696 of Shang Chi. The major locations pace was good like Cerritos 16, Estrella Falls but the smaller markets barely added anything, so much so its disaster there. When I started the run, felt encouraging, end was just blech.

 

Need bumps in final days.

Eternals Harkins T-3 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	221	55,722	2,371	4.26%	$27,628	$11.65
Cine 1	16	4,818	1,737	36.05%	$26,691	$15.37
Cine Capri	4	1,782	137	7.69%	$1,929	$14.08
IMAX	2	890	281	31.57%	$4,215	$15.00
3D	12	1,704	33	1.94%	$437	$13.24
Total	255	64,916	4,559	7.02%	$60,900	$13.36

 

Comps

1.32x Shang Chi T-3 Days - $11.6M

0.83x Black Widow T-3 Days - 11.5M (adjusted for Canada)

 

Better last 4 days, adding 1338, almost what Shang Chi did i.e. 1373. If trend was like other places Monday was probably over Shang Chi. Black Widow comp remained steady, but Shang Chi pace fell in last 3 days, hopefully Eternals manage itself. 

 

Harkins numbers are good enough for double digit so far, hopefully they hold.

[charlie Jatinder]

17 minutes ago, Porthos said:

What the hell’s with the Willie reaction, @charlie Jatinder?

I didn't even realise. Just fast swipe I guess on touchpad. 

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I didn't even realise. Just fast swipe I guess on touchpad. 

Been there, done that myself on mobile.  Just wanted to make sure I didn’t accidentally offend you is all.

[TwoMisfits]

So, to get a feel for final Eternals sets (ie show bumps)...final sets at my Cinemarks:)...

 

My 1st Cinemark set to ONLY three full screens (smallest MCU supers set of 2021) - funny enough it's 7 PLF showings, 5 regulars showings - quite an abnormal split on this theater, but I guess they are expecting the PLF trend to hold and to not draw a lot of families (who almost never buy PLFs)...

 

My 2nd Cinemark set to 3.5 screens with 1 3d showing and the rest regular (13 showings) (it doesn't have true PLF)...

 

Not totally surprising with how crowded the marketplace is, how presales have trended, and how reviews have gone...and possibly how much Disney is asking:)...

 

But keep it in mind - there may not be the normal enormous showings bump, and even with more openings, Eternals may not surpass BW and Shang Chi for final showings and seats...

 

PS - Amazingly, Soho was already dropped by one of the 2 theaters, so wow, not great screen negotiation there (Antlers stayed on a 1/2 and a full, and MHA was the winner of newbies last weekend and on screens next weekend as it keeps a full at both)...

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-3	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	49	8,384	807	47	9.63%
		Phoenix	7	42	6,832	986	70	14.43%
		Raleigh	8	34	3,886	865	71	22.26%
	Eternals Total		21	125	19,102	2,658	188	13.91%
	Spencer	Jacksonville	3	5	336	2	2	0.60%
		Phoenix	3	6	630	16	16	2.54%
		Raleigh	1	2	100	9	9	9.00%
	Spencer Total		7	13	1,066	27	27	2.53%

 

Eternals comps

BW - .742x (9.8m)

SC - 1.46x (12.87m)

 

I don't have any good comps for Spencer; not sure what the gender demographic will be.  Previews starting at 5pm is an interesting choice too.  Adult dramas haven't fared very well this year so my expectations are pretty low already.  Low theater count so I'll put my prediction around 2m for the weekend.

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-16	Ghostbusters	Jacksonville	6	50	8,137	42	42	0.52%
		Phoenix	5	27	4,640	101	101	2.18%
		Raleigh	7	28	4,025	90	90	2.24%
	Ghostbusters Total		18	105	16,802	233	233	1.39%
T-2	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	53	8,810	906	99	10.28%
		Phoenix	7	43	6,939	1,142	156	16.46%
		Raleigh	8	37	4,098	969	104	23.65%
	Eternals Total		21	133	19,847	3,017	359	15.20%
	Spencer	Jacksonville	3	5	336	4	2	1.19%
		Phoenix	3	6	630	21	5	3.33%
		Raleigh	1	2	100	15	6	15.00%
	Spencer Total		7	13	1,066	40	13	3.75%

 

Eternals comps

BW - .738x (9.75m)

SC - 1.44x (12.67m)

 

It's trying to make a push for 10m and I think it might just get there.

 

Ghostbusters comps

TSS - 1x (4.1m)

NTTD - .715x (3.72m)

Venom 2 - .61x (7.09m)

 

All three of these already had a few days of sales under their belt at this point, so I'd say that's a really good start.  Really just reinforcing what the other areas are showing.

[EmpireCity]

Sing 2 goes on sale Thursday.  It also has paid early sneak previews in select cities on Nov. 27th that go on sale at the same time.  

 

Also, not surprised at all to see Ghostbusters: Afterlife doing well.  It is more than just 80's nostalgia, it is a damn good heartwarming funny movie with the 80's stuff thrown in.  The WOM is going to be huge and the Top Critics are going to be way off from the general public.