The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[SpiderByte]

Sounding increasingly like Force Awakens OW is on the way out

[JWR]

Honestly, I never believed that it was never within reach.

[Momori]

 

 

Edited December 3, 2021 by Momori

[XXR vs XXR]

12 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Sounding increasingly like Force Awakens OW is on the way out

We will keep watching and evaluating. Don’t want an Eternals situation where things look good and then reviews kill momentum (much less likely in this case) but yes I feel that TFA OW is going down and likely IW as well. Endgame will be safe of course. Then the question becomes, how good are the legs? 

Let’s assume for now a $240-280M opening weekend. 
 

Are we in a DH2 situation where insane fan hype drives a monstrous OD and OW, but quickly dies off (relatively speaking)? I’m thinking $580-660M in this scenario.
 

Are we in an Endgame situation where the hype overflows for a bit and there are a few huge weeks but another moderately quick taper? This would be a $660-780M scenario.

 

Or are we in a BP/TFA situation where the opening is huge and the legs are long? The one we all want I think, we’d be looking at $800-1000M in this case. 

[SpiderByte]

11 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

We will keep watching and evaluating. Don’t want an Eternals situation where things look good and then reviews kill momentum (much less likely in this case)

They aren't doing critic screenings. Just a 40 minute preview for the press

[XXR vs XXR]

14 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

They aren't doing critic screenings. Just a 40 minute preview for the press

Not today, no. But they are definitely doing them before it’s released and the review embargo is also likely to end on premier night. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 12/2/2021 at 9:59 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New Sales	Total Sold	True Capacity	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-14	Spider-Man	PLF	38	31	6,841	8,388	81.56%	$14.46	$98,910.23
		Standard	78	139	7,077	10,917	64.83%	$11.01	$77,887.35
	Spider-Man Total		116	170	13,918	19,305	72.10%	$12.70	$176,797.58
T-15	Spidey (Fri)	PLF	56	198	6,382	12,379	51.56%	$14.40	$91,890.49
		Standard	84	242	4,408	13,046	33.79%	$10.68	$47,095.98
	Spidey (Fri) Total		140	440	10,790	25,425	42.44%	$12.88	$138,986.47

 

Santikos Theaters tracking

 

Still hasn't added a new batch of shows, which means a pretty slow sales day.  Not much else to say for now.

 

Matinee splits

 

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New Sales	Total Sold	True Capacity	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-14	Spider-Man	N	85	91	10,745	14,045	76.50%	$13.47	$144,770.53
		Y	31	79	3,173	5,260	60.32%	$10.09	$32,027.05
	Spider-Man Total		116	170	13,918	19,305	72.10%	$12.70	$176,797.58
T-15	Spidey (Fri)	N	71	243	7,940	13,419	59.17%	$13.70	$108,776.45
		Y	69	197	2,850	12,006	23.74%	$10.60	$30,210.02
	Spidey (Fri) Total		140	440	10,790	25,425	42.44%	$12.88	$138,986.47

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New Sales	Total Sold	True Capacity	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-13	Spider-Man	PLF	38	123	6,964	8,388	83.02%	$14.45	$100,597.04
		Standard	78	154	7,231	10,917	66.24%	$10.98	$79,417.94
	Spider-Man Total		116	277	14,195	19,305	73.53%	$12.68	$180,014.98
T-14	Spidey (Fri)	PLF	56	258	6,640	12,379	53.64%	$14.35	$95,294.87
		Standard	84	203	4,611	13,046	35.34%	$10.68	$49,246.11
	Spidey (Fri) Total		140	461	11,251	25,425	44.25%	$12.85	$144,540.98

 

Santikos Theaters tracking

 

Getting this out a little later today, but preview and Friday sales are both better than yesterday's update.  Heading into a meeting so no time for more.

 

Movie	Mat	Shows	New Sales	Total Sold	True Capacity	% Sold	ATP	Gross
Spider-Man	N	85	158	10,903	14,045	77.63%	$13.47	$146,831.49
	Y	31	119	3,292	5,260	62.59%	$10.08	$33,183.49
Spider-Man Total		116	277	14,195	19,305	73.53%	$12.68	$180,014.98
Spidey (Fri)	N	71	222	8,162	13,419	60.82%	$13.69	$111,727.33
	Y	69	239	3,089	12,006	25.73%	$10.62	$32,813.65
Spidey (Fri) Total		140	461	11,251	25,425	44.25%	$12.85	$144,540.98

[SpiderByte]

1 hour ago, VenomXXR said:

Not today, no. But they are definitely doing them before it’s released and the review embargo is also likely to end on premier night. 

I haven't heard any news about another advance screening. I don't think theres going to be anything in advance before the red carpet premiere on the 13th.

[Tinalera]

2 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

They aren't doing critic screenings. Just a 40 minute preview for the press

I find it very interesting that the critics aren't getting the full film-I mean when was the last movie that had that? I would think the critics are probably raising a bit of an eyebrow as to why they don't get full movie (I realize its Disney not wanting any spoilers leaking out, or surprises being revealed). 

 

Having said that, gotta wonder do other studios start trying the same thing with their own films? Would be really interesting to see how critics and general public would react to a review based on an incomplete viewing if this sort of thing were to catch on.

[snarkmachine]

Critics are getting it at the premiere. The 40 mins is for junket press so they can do interviews.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2091

2975

70.29%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1808

4232

42.72%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
11681	546	31343	37.27%	15	204

 

Showings added: 9

Seats added: 1263

 

AMCs sold	6471
Cinemarks sold	2320
Regals sold	1845
Harkins sold	1045

 

Eternals final comp: 24.93M

Shang-Chi final comp: 25.48M

Black Widow final comp: 24.24M

Adjusted TRoS final comp: 28.42M

 

Adjusted T-14 days TRoS comp: 43.88M

 

Daily pace comparisons:

  Reveal hidden contents

NWH day 14: +546

8.4x Eternals (+65)

5.87x Shang-Chi (+93)

9.25x Black Widow (+59)

 

Adjusted NWH day 14: +426

3.64x TRoS (+117)

 

The pace comparisons are messy. I think the new showings made the drop relatively soft, and will continue to do so. May have to wait another couple days for some level of stabilization. On a side note, the first Friday "Thursday previews" 12AM and later showings have popped up. There's even one at 2:45AM. I feel for those that have to work until 6AM

No Way Home Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2164

3431

63.07%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1896

4232

44.80%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
12238	557	32614	37.52%	15	211

 

Showings added: 7

Seats added: 821

 

AMCs sold	6707
Cinemarks sold	2398
Regals sold	1980
Harkins sold	1153

 

Eternals final comp: 26.11M

Shang-Chi final comp: 26.69M

Black Widow final comp: 25.39M

Adjusted TRoS final comp: 29.66M

 

Adjusted T-13 days TRoS comp: 45.34M

 

Daily pace comparisons:

Spoiler

NWH T-13: +557, +4.77%

7.14x Eternals T-13 (+78, +5.87%)

10.92x Shang-Chi T-13 (+51, +7.89%)

 

Didn't count BW on T-13 days

 

Adjusted NWH T-13: +443, +4.37%

4.76x TRoS T-13 (+93, +1.00%)

 

Impressive that there was a slight increase from yesterday. Honestly, it may be plausible to say that this is pretty close to the stabilization level. I'll do a post about some possible scenarios after I post all my numbers

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Megaplex

 

T-14 days Thursday(150 showings): 16654(+474)/36391 in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 25.80M

Black Widow final comp: 26.55M

 

Daily pace comparison:

  Reveal hidden contents

NWH day 14: +474

8.32x Black Widow (+57)

9.67x NTTD (+49)

 

T-15 days Friday(178 showings): 11471(+851)/49656 in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 26.43M

Black Widow final comp: 32.48M

 

Daily pace comparison:

  Reveal hidden contents

NWH day 14: +851

18.11x Black Widow (+47)

11.66x NTTD (+73)

 

T-16 days Saturday(176 showings): 5465(+507)/47653(+179) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 15.36M

 

T-17 days Sunday(153 showings): 1081(+131)/46322(+1248) in 15 theaters

 

The Friday daily pace comparisons are gonna be tricky. The demand for Thursday will force people that want a good seat in primetime showings to just go see it another day. Especially for PLFs. So Friday might need a bit more time than Thursday for stabilization. 

No Way Home Megaplex

 

T-13 days Thursday(150 showings): 17132(+478)/36391 in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 26.54M

Black Widow final comp: 27.32M

 

Daily pace comparison:

Spoiler

NWH T-13: +478, +2.87%

 

12.58x NTTD T-13 (+38, +5.50%)

 

T-14 days Friday(178 showings): 12155(+684)/49656 in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 28.01M

Black Widow final comp: 34.42M

 

Daily pace comparison:

Spoiler

NWH T-14: +684, +5.96%

 

19.54x NTTD T-14 (+35, +4.59%)

 

T-15 days Saturday(176 showings): 5981(+516)/47653 in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 16.81M

 

T-16 days Sunday(153 showings): 1208(+127)/46322 in 15 theaters

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-14 days Thursday(256 showings): 23447(+623)/33459(+160)

 

Eternals final comp: 22.18M

 

Daily pace comparison: 4.21x Eternals (+148)

 

T-15 days Friday(315 showings): 19329(+767)/42336(-177)

 

Eternals final comp: 31.46M

 

Daily pace comparison: 3.97x Eternals (+193)

 

T-16 days Saturday(352 showings): 17367(+1274)/46773

 

Eternals final comp: 28.08M

 

Daily pace comparison: 6.10x Eternals (+209)

 

T-17 days Sunday(295 showings): 7986(+820)/39325

 

Thursday will be kinda interesting to watch over the next 2 weeks. I think Drafthouse is already stretching to the limit with the number of showings they have unless they add a bunch of early morning Friday showings. It's already at 70% sold as a chain

No Way Home Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-13 days Thursday(260 showings): 24008(+561, +2.39%)/33921(+462)

 

Eternals final comp: 22.71M

 

Daily pace comparison: 4.52x Eternals (+124, +2.83%)

 

T-14 days Friday(317 showings): 19964(+635, +3.29%)/41969(-367)

 

Eternals final comp: 32.49M

 

Daily pace comparison: 3.36x Eternals (+189, +5.06%)

 

T-15 days Saturday(354 showings): 18358(+991, +5.71%)/46434(-339)

 

Eternals final comp: 29.68M

 

Daily pace comparison: 6.83x Eternals (+145, +3.82%)

 

T-16 days Sunday(295 showings): 8641(+655)/38987(-338)

 

Looks like a theater or two downsized a few showings which may have messed with the actual increases for the day. But I'm not gonna worry about it

[Legion Again]

13 hours ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Should be getting a new long range today. I guess they will mega lowball with 160-220 or so (previous range 135-185)

Props to @Shawn & co, the new OW range is actually pretty good (I’m personally on 220-280 but those geomeans are within like 15% of each other and I would even shade a little lower if I was making a public forecast).

[Inceptionzq]

30 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Daily pace comparisons:

  Hide contents

NWH T-13: +557, +4.77%

7.14x Eternals T-13 (+78, +5.87%)

10.92x Shang-Chi T-13 (+51, +7.89%)

 

Didn't count BW on T-13 days

 

Adjusted NWH T-13: +443, +4.37%

4.76x TRoS T-13 (+93, +1.00%)

 

Impressive that there was a slight increase from yesterday. Honestly, it may be plausible to say that this is pretty close to the stabilization level. I'll do a post about some possible scenarios after I post all my numbers

The first scenario I cooked up in my head, which FTR is one that I don't actually think is happening, is that NWH stabilizes at these percentage increases for the next 6 days, and does 1.7x T-7 days. And the current adjusted NWH total is 10578 sold. So the numbers would be as follows

 

4.77% increases for full numbers and 4.37% for adjusted numbers increases over next 6 days, and 1.7x the resulting T-7 days number; 1.65x adjusted T-7:

NWH T-7: 16186

Adjusted NWH T-7: 13673

 

NWH final: 27516

Adjusted NWH final: 22560

 

Eternals T-0 comp: 58.72M

Black Widow T-0 comp: 57.09M

Adjusted TRoS T-0 comp: 63.26M

 

While maybe technically possible, it would have to perform "perfectly" in a sense. And just to note, the comps are before doing any adjustments to account for Canada(BW comp), and just general pre-pandemic comp vs pandemic for TRoS, which I will do for the actual T-0 comps.

 

The next scenario I tested was the full NWH percentage pace stabilizing at 4% for the next 6 days, and I used the same ratio of 4.37%/4.77% to get 3.66% for the adjusted numbers. 

 

4% increases for full numbers and 3.66% for adjusted numbers over next 6 days, and 1.65x the resulting T-7 days number; 1.6x adjusted T-7:

NWH T-7: 15485

Adjusted NWH T-7: 13124

 

NWH final: 25550

Adjusted NWH final: 20998

 

Eternals T-0 comp: 54.52M

Black Widow T-0 comp: 53.01M

Adjusted TRoS T-0 comp: 58.88M

 

More realistic, but still feels like high-end to me.

 

The scenario that I settled on is double TRoS' percentage pace for the adjusted numbers over the next 6 days and 1.6/1.55x the T-7 numbers.

 

3.41% increases for full numbers and 3.12% for adjusted numbers over next 6 days, and 1.6x the resulting T-7 days number; 1.55x adjusted T-7:

NWH T-7: 14965

Adjusted NWH T-7: 12719

 

NWH final: 23944

Adjusted NWH final: 19714

 

Eternals T-0 comp: 51.09M

Black Widow T-0 comp: 49.68M

Adjusted TRoS T-0 comp: 55.28M

 

This scenario I feel is realistic, probably somewhere in the middle on an overall range I'd guess right now. I plan to adjust BW up by dividing by .955, and adjust TRoS down by 7.5%. So the comps would give a range of 51-52M. All in all, just a fun thought experiment I wanted to do. Who knows what will actually happen.

[Cap]

Okay, I actually rebuilt my spreadsheet.  Finally.  I guess I'm really back at this.

 

SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME

 

REGAL FOX RUN	Total Available	Sold	Percent	Showings
REGAL TOTAL	992	636	64.11%	8
FLAGSHIP	Total Available	Sold	Percent	Showings
FLAGSHIP TOTAL	552	254	46.01%	6
APPLE CINEMAS	Total Available	Sold	Percent	Showings
CT - Barkhamsted	539	89	16.51%	5
CT - Lux Dine Hartford	532	52	9.77%	5
CT - Simsbury	806	175	21.71%	7
CT - Torrington	367	73	19.89%	5
CT - Waterbury	536	214	39.92%	6
CT - Xtreme Hartford	1023	127	12.41%	8
ME - Cinemagic	1016	476	46.85%	8
ME - Westbrook	2141	175	8.17%	7
MA - Cambridge	621	309	49.75%	6
NH - Hooksett IMAX	837	474	56.63%	7
NH - Merrimack	1098	193	17.58%	5
APPLE TOTAL	9516	2357	24.77%	69
REGION TOTAL	11,060	3247	29.35%	83

     

SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME
v Final Sales Comps
Regal - Fox Run Mall
Widow		19.25
Shang Chi		13.82
No Time To Die		22.9
Dune		15.59
Eternals		20.41
Falmouth Flagship
Widow		13.3
Shang Chi		14.51
No Time To Die		14.16
Dune		12
Eternals		N/A
CINEMAGIC
Endgame - First Day		25.1
Endgame - Last Day		13.51
TROS - First Day		22.93

  General Notes:

• Comps are mostly there "For The LOLZ" since I don't have complete data.  The big take aways for me are;

1. Spider-Man: No Way Home has sold as many tickets at Flagship in a week as Black Widow did in its ENTIRE run of pre-sales.
2. Apple Westbrook sold 79 tickets since Monday, which is comparatively excellent for them, but Apple Cinemagic only added 47. IMAX is gone (only first row and handicap left).  Most of the prize seats are gone for 2D shows.  3PM is definitely not anyone's first choice; it's lacking behind even the 10PMs across the board.
3. We're still no where near Endgame (662 first day tix sold behind ) up here, or even The Rise of Skywalker (354 first day tix behind).
4. Apple Cinemas definitely made the right choice snagging the ME and NH theaters from the previous owners, because they're the best producers of the bunch (other than Cambridge).

[Tinalera]

6 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

They aren't doing critic screenings. Just a 40 minute preview for the press

Thanks. I know I read a couple of articles (okay skimmed lol) where headlines were "parts of Spiderman will be held back during media showing", and misinterpreted that as "critics aren't getting full movie", which I thought was pretty daring. But its more press junket type of thing, so that makes more sense

[XXR vs XXR]

13 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

All in all, just a fun thought experiment I wanted to do. Who knows what will actually happen.

 

Can't beat a good thought experiment. Glad your scenarios all point to previews at $50m or more. Barring an unheard of amount of frontloadedness for an MCU film, NWH should knock off TFA and IW opening weekends. 

The longer we go that NWH rates don't fall against some of these comparisons, the more I'm beginning to think $300M is in play. I'm willing to wait another week though before calling for it to happen 

[infamous5445]

Is at least a 200M opening for Spider-Man guaranteed rn or not enough data to say yet?

[Inceptionzq]

6 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

The longer we go that NWH rates don't fall against some of these comparisons, the more I'm beginning to think $300M is in play. I'm willing to wait another week though before calling for it to happen 

What IM are you thinking? I’m going with 4.9-5 rn, so with my first scenario that I think is only technically possible, it would be around 59M previews -> 295M on the high end.