The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[aabattery]

Quote

Initial tracking released this week for “A Wrinkle in Time” shows a range of $34 million-$37 million

 

[WrathOfHan]

20 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

Down 1M from the initial 35M on the low end 🤔

 

My club will be tight

[That One Girl]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Down 1M from the initial 35M on the low end 🤔

 

My club will be tight

 

Your club will also not happen

[DAJK]

Never thought Annhiliation would do well at my theatre, but was starting to hope Game Night could become a comedy breakout here ala Bad Moms or something.

 

But the snow is supposed to get a lot worse now, turning into a full fledge snowstorm starting Friday so I'm beginning to doubt it now

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Down 1M from the initial 35M on the low end 🤔

 

My club will be tight

Keep in mind tracking is still a few weeks out so it should go up, and family films are almost always underestimated in tracking. I'd say 50 is a near lock if it's tracking at 34-37 3 weeks out. 

[WrathOfHan]

Pulse:

 

1. Black Panther

2. Black Panther 3D

3. Black Panther IMAX

4. Fifty Shades Freed

5. Annihilation

[KillMongerBeast]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Pulse:

 

1. Black Panther

2. Black Panther 3D

3. Black Panther IMAX

4. Fifty Shades Freed

5. Annihilation

Suprised that Game Night isn't in the top 5 considering it has a lot more buzz and is tracking better

[KeepItU25071906]

15 minutes ago, KillMongerBeast said:

Suprised that Game Night isn't in the top 5 considering it has a lot more buzz and is tracking better

Game Night's presales looks  so weak. I don't give it more than 16 mln now. May be smth would change in the near hours.

Edited February 22, 2018 by KeepItU25071906

[TwoMisfits]

Morning MT.com - Game Night makes it on here...

71.7% Black Panther

8.1% Peter Rabbit

4.4% Fifty Shades Freed

1.7% Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

1.5% Game Night

[WrathOfHan]

Tonight at my theater:

 

Annihilation: 4/78

Game Night: 4/78

Every Day: 2/67

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, KillMongerBeast said:

Suprised that Game Night isn't in the top 5 considering it has a lot more buzz and is tracking better

Feel like a walk in type of movie / not playing in many screen with reserved seating too.

[Krissykins]

It would be a shame if Annihilation and Game Night both only did $12m, as per THR’s article they just tweeted out. 

 

Game Night $12-14m

Annihilation $10-12m

[Barnack]

16 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

It would be a shame if Annihilation and Game Night both only did $12m, as per THR’s article they just tweeted out. 

 

Game Night $12-14m

Annihilation $10-12m

 

Would not be too surprising for Annihilation

 

Ex Machina: 5.3m

Her: 5.6m

Cloud atlas: 9.6m (an over 100m budget from the Matrix creator Sci-fi starring Hanks, Berry, Grant, etc...)

Children of men: 10.2m

 

Often if you cannot understand the movie looking at the title poster, 30s clip / one sentence, can be really hard to sell it, even with those names/acclaim some of the above got.

 

That something Arrival/The Martian/Gravity did really well commercially, almost all in the title/image, maybe need one line for audience to know what the movie will be (Arrival turn it around to make it about something else too).

 

Game Night felt like a safe winner since the first trailer / concept announced, maybe not Happy Death Day that was just almost 100% certain to work, but still really high, that the type of movie word of mouth can push a bit ? Those very large prediction window for it make sense to me.

Edited February 22, 2018 by Barnack

[XO21]

Having seen Annihilation I wouldn’t be surprised if it drops under $10m...

[babz06]

3 hours ago, KillMongerBeast said:

Suprised that Game Night isn't in the top 5 considering it has a lot more buzz and is tracking better

game night is probably for walk-up business oriented. 

[WrathOfHan]

Pulse:

 

1. Black Panther

2. Black Panther 3D

3. Peter Rabbit

4. Black Panther IMAX

5. Fifty Shades

 

lmao @ Annihilation dropping off the top 5. Over 2 minutes, I only saw 11 tickets for Game Night, 6 for Annihilation, and 2 for Every Day. There is zero reason Peter Rabbit should still be here on a weekday  

[MCKillswitch123]

16 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Keep in mind tracking is still a few weeks out so it should go up, and family films are almost always underestimated in tracking. I'd say 50 is a near lock if it's tracking at 34-37 3 weeks out. 

Indeed, almost always. Unfortunately not "always", though. Blade Runner 2049 wishes that it really were "always".

[Eric Duncan]

Annihilation	30	1025	2.93%
Game Night	80	1538	5.20%

 

Sadly, there's no good comps I can really use for either of these movies.

[YM!]

44 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Indeed, almost always. Unfortunately not "always", though. Blade Runner 2049 wishes that it really were "always".

Blade Runner 2049 was a family film?

[MCKillswitch123]

1 minute ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Blade Runner 2049 was a family film?

Oh, I totally missed the "family" part. My bad for not paying attention.

 

STILL, the point about how I would've liked that 2049 had been underpredicted rather than totally overpredicted remains.