The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, JB33 said:

Any chance walk-ups get JURASSIC WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM to something like $180M OW?

 

YES.

 

On a serious note, it could happen, but its not very realistic imo. We really dont know till RTH's first Friday estimate how big the walk-ups are gonna be. Though if theres one franchise that is known for these kinds of massive walk-ups, its JP.

 

[JB33]

16 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

YES.

 

On a serious note, it could happen, but its not very realistic imo. We really dont know till RTH's first Friday estimate how big the walk-ups are gonna be. Though if theres one franchise that is known for these kinds of massive walk-ups, its JP.

 

I just want it to reach that mark so we can say there are 3 definitive opening weekend monster franchises: Avengers (if BLACK PANTHER-like weekends become more normal than I would say Marvel in general), Star Wars and Jurassic World.

 

 

Edited May 30, 2018 by JB33

[Eric Loves Rey]

Here's something a little odd about Jurassic World at my theater. Usually, even the bigly stuff like Star Wars, Black Panther, and Avengers will get 3 3D showings at most. But as of now, Jurassic's getting half of its showtimes in 3D, and each one is getting the biggest auditorium. It'll probably be canceled out once OW arrives and more 2D showtimes get added on to it, but I do find it weird that this has already garnered the most 3D shows before times are even finalized. Maybe this is a film w/ really good 3D on it?

[Brainbug]

21 minutes ago, JB33 said:

I just want it to reach that mark so we can say there are 3 definitive opening weekend monster franchises: Avengers/Marvel (if BLACK PANTHER-like weekends become more normal than I would say Marvel in general), Star Wars and Jurassic World.

 

 

 

JP is different from Comic Book franchises/Star Wars in that it doesnt have a rabbid fanbase rushing out to see a new movie on Thursday/Friday. The reception among the GA is they key to success for Fallen Kingdom as it was for the first JW. If they deliver a thrilling summer spectacle, the people will come.

Edited May 30, 2018 by Brainbug

[Brainbug]

Just now, CoolEric258 said:

Here's something a little odd about Jurassic World at my theater. Usually, even the bigly stuff like Star Wars, Black Panther, and Avengers will get 3 3D showings at most. But as of now, Jurassic's getting half of its showtimes in 3D, and each one is getting the biggest auditorium. It'll probably be canceled out once OW arrives and more 2D showtimes get added on to it, but I do find it weird that this has already garnered the most 3D shows before times are even finalized. Maybe this is a film w/ really good 3D on it?

 

I sure hope so, since i have no choice but to see it in 3D here

[WrathOfHan]

My AMC has three screens up for JW: the biggest for 2D and two average ones consisting of 3D save for one show. Incredibles is in the 2nd Biggest (2D) and 4th Smallest (3D) when JW opens.

Edited May 30, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[Porthos]

Just to let folks know, I am planning on doing a seat report for Fallen Kingdom.  Even if it is walk-up heavy (the first certainly was; jury might be out though on this one - time will tell), it will be good to have for historical comps, I think.

 

Also gonna be the last seat report I do for quite a while, as I don't see anything else on the horizon that would make it worth my while to do.  Might be the last one I do all the way up to FB2.  Just have to see how it goes. 

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Just to let folks know, I am planning on doing a seat report for Fallen Kingdom.  Even if it is walk-up heavy (the first certainly was; jury might be out though on this one - time will tell), it will be good to have for historical comps, I think.

 

Also gonna be the last seat report I do for quite a while, as I don't see anything else on the horizon that would make it worth my while to do.  Might be the last one I do all the way up to FB2.  Just have to see how it goes. 

 

Thank you, i cant wait for it! Also, dont count out THE MEG breaking out big time! ()

[KeepItU25071906]

130 mln for JW is possible.

 

Or not.

 

...

[John Marston]

JW now number 3 on MT after Solo and Deadpool 

[Barnack]

On Fandango today sales once Jurassic World started:

 

Solo A S	15658
Jurassic	10797
Deadpool	10081
Avengers	3495
Book Clu	2740
Incredib	1275
Life of	973
Adrift (	940
Breaking	548
A Quiet	492
Show Dog	439
Oceans 8	415

[abra]

Edited May 31, 2018 by abra

[Porthos]

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Greater Sacramento Area Seat Report: T-22 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	92	8760	9355	6.36%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:      585

 

.1255x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after one day of pre-sales.

.0852x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 22 days before release. (IW had 19 more days of pre-sales)

.2976x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 22 days before release (IW had 16 more days of pre-sales)  [I don't have info for day one of pre-sales for BP]

.3417x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 21 days before release (I don't have info for DP2's first day of sales) [Some theaters also went on sale early for DP2, allowing for a stronger reported 'first day' of sales]

.2224x as many tickets sold as Solo after one day of pre-sales (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to JW:FK's 22 days of presales)

 

=======

 

As always, these comps are more than a little problematic due to the disparity in number of theaters a film is showing as well as the number of screens it is on.  So, as always, use them as something of a general guideline and not something hard and fast.  Also, I had incomplete info on BP early in its run, so it'll disappear in a couple of days for a couple of days.

 

And, as noted earlier in the thread, Jurassic World was a T-rex sized monster on walkups, so perhaps the lower presales even compared to something like DP2 should be expected.  DP2 was also a little weird as some theaters started selling tickets early.  So it'll be interesting to see just how it performs over the next few days. 

Edited June 1, 2018 by Porthos
Accidentally shorted FK 20 tickets due to database error; now corrected for the record

[MovieMan89]

FK is harder to gauge than most from pre-sales, but I still maintain that its nature as a direct sequel means it should be posting pretty huge pre-sales if it's going to have a huge OW. 

[Porthos]

16 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

FK is harder to gauge than most from pre-sales, but I still maintain that its nature as a direct sequel means it should be posting pretty huge pre-sales if it's going to have a huge OW. 

That's the 64 million dollar question, inn't?  DP2 had a fair amount of pre-sales, but it was still a CBM with a dedicated fan base.  I have to admit I was more than a little surprised at the sales for JW:FK when I saw the Fandango/MT.com trackers earlier today.

 

On the other hand, the preview number for JW wasn't all that great (18.5) and we all know the OW it got.

 

On the third hand, pre-sales keep getting larger each and every year.

 

On the fourth hand, if JW was really as loved as its 600m+ DOM suggests, you would in fact think there would have been some more presales.

 

So, to sum up:

 

 

Just have to see how it goes in the coming days and if the reviews/buzz from folks who see it before the US affects the pre-sales all that much.

Edited May 31, 2018 by Porthos

[Brainbug]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

That's the 64 million dollar question, inn't?  DP2 had a fair amount of pre-sales, but it was still a CBM with a dedicated fan base.  I have to admit I was more than a little surprised at the sales for JW:FK when I saw the Fandango/MT.com trackers earlier today.

 

On the other hand, the preview number for JW wasn't all that great (18.5) and we all know the OW it got.

 

On the third hand, pre-sales keep getting larger each and every year.

 

On the fourth hand, if JW was really as loved as its 600m+ DOM suggests, you would in fact think there would have been some more presales.

 

So, to sum up:

 

 

Just have to see how it goes in the coming days and if the reviews/buzz from folks who see it before the US affects the pre-sales all that much.

 

I actually think we wont have any real idea how high the OW in the US will go till RTH's first Friday estimate.

Edited May 31, 2018 by Brainbug

[That One Girl]

6% of tickets sold 3 weeks from release sounds perfectly good to me.  Still maintain that it'll get over 160M OW at the least

[TLK]

Fandango Presales Volume.

 

Date           Name                      Monday      Tuesday       Wednesday
04/06/18    A Quiet Place           2177          4003            10665
04/06/18    Blockers                  504            1106            2931
04/13/18    Rampage                705            1508            4109
04/13/18    Truth Or Dare         385            760              2133
04/20/18    Super Troopers 2    2825          3447            6811
04/20/18    I Feel Pretty             871            1610           4423
04/27/18    Avengers 3              49836        54892         68826   
05/04/18    Overboard               84              409            1044

05/11/18    Breaking In              727            1204           2899
05/11/18    Life Of The Party      587            1310          3010

05/18/18    Deadpool 2              23134        28896         41212
05/18/18    Show Dogs              6               128             369
05/18/18    Book Club                836            1599           3283

05/25/18    Solo : Star Wars       13688       15855         28533

06/01/18    Action Point             17              48               197

06/01/18    Adrift                       63              308             1268

06/01/18    Upgrade                  9                119              522

 

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

 

Adrift's presales are in the same ballpark as Overboard but different audiences so who knows. Action Point and Upgrade both have terrible presales.

[a2k]

it may be early to tell but assuming jw2 should have better walk ups than say aiw, dp2, solo...what sort of ow do the presales fortell? i hope sub-150 gets ruled out the week of the release.

[Nova]

3 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said:

it may be early to tell but assuming jw2 should have better walk ups than say aiw, dp2, solo...what sort of ow do the presales fortell? i hope sub-150 gets ruled out the week of the release.

I'm actually really interested in the walk ups for JW2. I'm assuming the walk ups will be mostly from families (an assumption I have no idea how the first played but I'm assuming families was a large part of it). I'm wondering if that's the case then how will I2's second weekend fare OR will I2 be the family movie that people flock to see even on its second weekend. 

 

*Also something else to consider. If and I say if both I2 and JW2 play out like family movies then what does that mean for Ant-Man and the Wasp OW? Or if Ant-Man is the second family movie families pick then again what does that mean for JW2. All 3 of these films (especially I2) are going to be attracting family crowds and as we've seen in the past the MCU relies on the family crowd to boost up its Saturdays on the weekend. Just something to consider going forward i.e. which movie(s) family decide to watch over another. I'm gonna be interested in that audience breakdown for all 3 on their OW.