The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[MovieMan89]

I think Fallout has a real chance for 80-85. Everything is *ahem* falling into place perfectly for it. 

[el sid]

2 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

I think Fallout has a real chance for 80-85. Everything is *ahem* falling into place perfectly for it. 

Would be great but I still doubt it somehow. But who knows and I'm really looking forward to the next week with all the presales talking .

MT update:

#1 MM2 33.5%
#2 Equalizer2 17.9% - still rising, hopefully a good sign
#3 HT3 14%
#4 Ant-Man 7.7%
#5 TI2 5%

[MrGlass2]

MIF presales have never looked impressive enough to break the ceiling of the franchise - that is what it would take to get anywhere near $80M. But let's hope for the best...

 

Updated by @akvalley: 2018-07-20 17:00:56 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2018-07-20 16:00:00	472	The Equalizer 2
2018-07-20 16:00:00	468	Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again
2018-07-20 16:00:00	218	Ant-Man and the Wasp
2018-07-20 16:00:00	196	Hotel Transylvania 3 Summer Vacation
2018-07-20 16:00:00	118	Incredibles 2
2018-07-20 16:00:00	95	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom
2018-07-20 16:00:00	73	Skyscraper (2018)
2018-07-20 16:00:00	63	The First Purge
2018-07-20 16:00:00	38	Unfriended Dark Web
2018-07-20 16:00:00	37	The Equalizer 2 The IMAX 2D Experience

...

2018-07-20 16:00:00	9	Mission Impossible - Fallout

[Alli]

5 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

MIF presales have never looked impressive enough to break the ceiling of the franchise - that is what it would take to get anywhere near $80M. But let's hope for the best...

 

Updated by @akvalley: 2018-07-20 17:00:56 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2018-07-20 16:00:00	472	The Equalizer 2
2018-07-20 16:00:00	468	Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again
2018-07-20 16:00:00	218	Ant-Man and the Wasp
2018-07-20 16:00:00	196	Hotel Transylvania 3 Summer Vacation
2018-07-20 16:00:00	118	Incredibles 2
2018-07-20 16:00:00	95	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom
2018-07-20 16:00:00	73	Skyscraper (2018)
2018-07-20 16:00:00	63	The First Purge
2018-07-20 16:00:00	38	Unfriended Dark Web
2018-07-20 16:00:00	37	The Equalizer 2 The IMAX 2D Experience

...

2018-07-20 16:00:00	9	Mission Impossible - Fallout

yuck. that sux. I don't know what it would take for this franchise to go higher. when you think about it, in this day and age 200M is pitiful for a franchise.

[Porthos]

So I haven't been following this thread the last couple of weeks.  Can anyone tell me what the deal is with Fallout having some 4pm previews (locally it appears to be just Cinema West, for what it's worth - no idea why they're getting a special deal and no one else is).

 

...

 

Good god, we really are gonna see 4pm/5pm be the new standard soon, aren't we? 

 

edit

 

Did a quick check and it doesn't appear that AMC is doing this, at least not in SF.  So why give a tiny(ish) outfit like Cinema West this sort of deal and not Regal/AMC/Cinemark? 

Edited July 21, 2018 by Porthos

[dxmatrixdt]

50 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Good god, we really are gonna see 4pm/5pm be the new standard soon, aren't we? 

My theory is they are trying to grab matinees on the preview dates for WOM enhancement.  I'm guessing 7pm is somehow a deliberately fixed time right now for movies premiering on Thursday and 4pm is the next option w/ 3 hour spacing between shows.

[Boxofficerules]

16 minutes ago, matrixdmath5 said:

My theory is they are trying to grab matinees on the preview dates for WOM enhancement.  I'm guessing 7pm is somehow a deliberately fixed time right now for movies premiering on Thursday and 4pm is the next option w/ 3 hour spacing between shows.

But Schools and Colleges are still going at 4pm, that start times doesn’t make much sense outside of holidays. 

[dxmatrixdt]

32 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

But Schools and Colleges are still going at 4pm, that start times doesn’t make much sense outside of holidays. 

Matinee pricing becomes an option with earlier Thursday shows which is likely why Thursday is showing earlier and earlier.  

[Webslinger]

On 7/21/2018 at 12:50 AM, Porthos said:

Good god, we really are gonna see 4pm/5pm be the new standard soon, aren't we? 

Honestly, I never thought we'd get to the point where 7:00 or 8:00 would be acceptable times to roll into Friday grosses until we got there in 2013. And somehow I happen to live in the one area where those Thursday previews never caught on, except for the biggest movies (and after they didn't sell out the early shows for Deadpool 2 or Solo, I'll bet they'll cease doing previews for anything that isn't a direct Star Wars sequel or Avengers team-up, even if it's something like Black Panther or Incredibles 2 that puts up huge numbers).

 

I still remember thinking so naively in 2012 about how doing 10:00 previews would affect the last Breaking Dawn's opening day and weekend grosses. Now here we are...

[MovieMan89]

I'd honestly be all for previews disappearing entirely and going back to midnights for only the biggest and most pre-sale heavy films. 

[Legion Again]

I like films opening earlier, it's just stupid to roll the numbers in. Call a spade a spade and report Thursday (OD) numbers, Friday, Sat, and Sun as 4 different days.

[YM!]

North Shore Cinema update 

 

Mission Impossible: Fallout is running 65% ahead of Kingsman 2 ($64.5M OW) and 126% ahead of Apes ($126.7M OW).

 

 

The latter is not happening but Kingsman 2 seems to be the best comp and $60M-$65M OW seems likely, with a shot of $70M.

[MattW]

1 hour ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

North Shore Cinema update 

 

Mission Impossible: Fallout is running 65% ahead of Kingsman 2 ($64.5M OW) and 126% ahead of Apes ($126.7M OW).

 

 

The latter is not happening but Kingsman 2 seems to be the best comp and $60M-$65M OW seems likely, with a shot of $70M.

I would think that MI is more walkup friendly than kingsman, so in your area that's a strong signal.  

 

Edited July 23, 2018 by MattW

[filmlover]

Aurora pretty much changed the game re: first showings, especially when the safety of movie theaters suddenly became a hot topic worldwide in a way it never had before. I don't see theaters ever going back to midnight only first screenings.

[MovieMan89]

21 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Aurora pretty much changed the game re: first showings, especially when the safety of movie theaters suddenly became a hot topic worldwide in a way it never had before. I don't see theaters ever going back to midnight only first screenings.

Maybe 10pm then for the big hitters. That way it's a more reasonable time to ensure the theater is properly staffed. 

[MrGlass2]

Updated by @akvalley: 2018-07-23 00:01:46 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2018-07-22 23:00:00	278	The Equalizer 2
2018-07-22 23:00:00	245	Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again
2018-07-22 23:00:00	169	Ant-Man and the Wasp
2018-07-22 23:00:00	112	Hotel Transylvania 3 Summer Vacation
2018-07-22 23:00:00	100	Incredibles 2
2018-07-22 23:00:00	86	Mission Impossible - Fallout
2018-07-22 23:00:00	78	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom
2018-07-22 23:00:00	76	The First Purge
2018-07-22 23:00:00	71	Unfriended Dark Web
2018-07-22 23:00:00	66	Skyscraper (2018)

[WrathOfHan]

Tickets are on sale for The Darkest Minds and The Meg at my AMC. TDM is getting the second biggest auditorium (Christopher Robin has the biggest), and The Meg is getting the biggest with all 2D shows, which means there will be another screen for 3D  

[YLF]

23 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Tickets are on sale for The Darkest Minds and The Meg at my AMC. TDM is getting the second biggest auditorium (Christopher Robin has the biggest), and The Meg is getting the biggest with all 2D shows, which means there will be another screen for 3D  

TDM is going to flop hard

Edited July 23, 2018 by YLF

[filmlover]

4 hours ago, YLF said:

TDM is going to flop hard

For sure. Definitely headed for Beautiful Creatures/The Mortal Instruments type of numbers at best.

[WrathOfHan]

5 hours ago, YLF said:

TDM is going to flop hard

I’m surprised Spy Who Dumped Me isn’t getting that auditorium